TrionDelta Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 if u have 5 chits on say tanks, will that mean in 4 turns u will advance or could u never advance do to never getting that 25% (luck) and having it say u advanced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Mike Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 You have a 25% chance of getting an advance each turn. So the theoretical chance of getting 4 advances in 4 turns is 25% x 25% x 25% x 25% = approximately 0.4%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gorski Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 and the chance of getting no tech increases is 75% to the 4th power. about 31% Gorski Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodyBucket Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 As they said in "The Right Stuff" "Maybe their Germans are better than our Germans" [ August 02, 2002, 12:46 AM: Message edited by: BloodyBucket ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randell Daigre Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 (Edited for stupidity and careless reading) [ August 02, 2002, 04:51 AM: Message edited by: Randell Daigre ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Panzer Boxb Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 Just a report of my bad luck with research. I had Germany maxed out in mid-42. Initially got Tanks and then hit a dry spell for almost 1.5 years with no advances whatsoever. Then, around late 44 I started getting tons of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Welshwill Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 Do the Industrial tech advances stop when you reach level five? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pzgndr Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 Just a report of my bad luck with research. Hmmm. In a recent post-patch game, I had Germany up to 6 points by end of August spread out in different areas. By end of demo Germany only got 1 advance, which was on the low side. Maybe there's still something else affecting the randomness of research. On average, we should see an advance every 20 turns for each research point. If we're not seeing a standard distribution (with some better and some worse results than average), something's wrong and needs to be corrected. Now that the game is out and being played, let's see what other results folks are getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Desert Dave Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 As originally posted by Bill Macon: Hmmm. In a recent post-patch game, I had Germany up to 6 points by end of August spread out in different areas. By end of demo Germany only got 1 advance, which was on the low side. Since this is an area that very much interests me -- I do suspect that successful research will "drive" strategic decisions, even if sub-consciously, I want to keep tabs on this as well, especially since my 3 or 4 post-patch games had similar results, that is -- a lot of research with only one or two advances. Seems as though we should've had roughly 3 or 4 advances in that 20-turn sequence. Of course, if I recall my old Stat class correctly, you CAN flip the penny and get 100 straight heads/tails. And, the sample size IS still very small. But the scattershot diagram should have mostly clusters along that defining-line drawn through the X-Y graph, with a few lone anomalies floating here and there, etc. Are the three of us who report this merely the few who have noticed, and the rest are getting appropriate results, and therefore not concerned enough to wonder? Also -- and this may betray my shallow understanding of software, but could one PBEM person be playing the CD that DOESN'T include the "release patch?" So they would derive the exaggerated benefits of the Rare Seed Bug, and another PBEM player would have incorporated the patch, and so, their research chances are therefore much diminished? Or, will the computer know which version your opponent is using, and tell you? If this could happen... I guess the other player would begin to suspect when all those 14 & 15-sized panzers and jet aircraft began showing up in 1942, yes? (... or, was that just the peculiar instance of the penny coming up heads 20 times in a row? Several games in a row?) :eek: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl G. E. von Mannerheim Posted August 2, 2002 Share Posted August 2, 2002 Posted bt BloodyBucket: As they said in "The Right Stuff" "Maybe their Germans are better than our Germans" Or perhaps we will fight the russians with a jimp. *He's the one on the right" "No on the left" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valadictum Posted August 3, 2002 Share Posted August 3, 2002 Probably my weak math but if you have 1 research in a field this gives you 5% chance per turn to advance. If you have 5 points in a field, is this really a 25% chance per turn or 5 separate 5% chances? The odds of success in the latter would surely be lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrionDelta Posted August 3, 2002 Author Share Posted August 3, 2002 does time also have a factor? cause it seemed after mid '42 i got atleast one upgrade every turn... by mid '41 i had 10 chits ... late '42 russia was beaten... i had lik 20 armies and 5 corps and 10 armor... then late '43 UK joined the pyre... then USA fell victim to my wrath and i won by mid '44... but up to mid '42 i got one upgrade with 10 chits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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