Probus Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 (edited) Some infrared footage of the raid last night to prepare the battlefield: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/26/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news/heres-the-latest-on-the-war?smid=url-share https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/israel-gaza-situation-report-israeli-armor-rolls-into-gaza-for-targeted-raid Edited October 26, 2023 by Probus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Centurian52 said: The only reason I'm not over there right now is that I've mostly given up on trying to keep up. I can only do so much reading in a day I started that thread and I can't keep up with all the comments either! It is still my #1 source for Ukraine war information and analysis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kohlenklau Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 4 hours ago, Probus said: I started that thread You are famous! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 (edited) For reasons that should be readily evident, no articles on this topic can be published without some form of obligatory confession of faith ("The fascist attack on the Soviet Union in 1941 was an act of perfidy"), but that said, this piece has some good hard info on the many human failures that took place at Bibi's overengineered BarLev line, which turned out to have enough holes to literally drive a truck through.... It also reflects some of @Battlefront.comSteve's and @The_Capt's (and others') commentary on modern warfare over on the UKR megathread (which you guys are *really* missing out on if you think it's all tribal meming, gore-pr0n and sh**posting). https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/hard-lessons-from-israels-high-tech We moderns have come to misperceive how things work, misplace our faith in systems, and often accidentally make ourselves more rather than less vulnerable to chaos.... “Because we don’t cross the fence, the other side has become strategically stronger,” as they’d been handed operational initiative." [IDF Col Vach, 2019]... Col. John Boyd, who helped develop modern maneuver warfare (and is maybe best known for inventing the “OODA Loop”) [preached]: “People, ideas, machines – in that order!”.... Boyd had seen for himself the perils of overreliance on Big Brain tech wizardry in Vietnam.... While technologies can certainly offer up solutions to discrete problems, these are often fragile solutions....These over-engineered solutions to guarding the border were not cost effective, instead representing an opportunity cost that could have been better spent elsewhere – like on maintaining a much greater number of disciplined, sharp-eyed men with guns. Etc. Edited October 27, 2023 by LongLeftFlank 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearstronaut Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Probus said: Looks like the IDF is going in tonight. Will be an interesting weekend, to put it lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 (edited) Anyone want to risk guessing how long it will take? It's a small area, with an overwhelming balance of power in Israel's favor, both of which indicate a short operation. But it's also a very dense urban area, which pushes things back in the direction of being a long operation. For the fighting over the city of Gaza itself I'm gonna guess in the vicinity of 1-2 months. I expect to be wrong, but in which direction? My thinking is based on eyeballing a small sample of the first few urban battles that came to mind, which I jotted down in a text file: Falluja area: 30 sq km population: 250,000 1st battle defenders: 3,600 attackers: 2,200 relative strength: assymetric, favoring attacker length: 3 weeks 6 days outcome: defender victory 2nd battle defenders: 4,000 attackers: 13,350 relative strength: assymetric, favoring attacker length: 1 month, 2 weeks, 2 days outcome: attacker victory Stalingrad area: 859 sq km population: 900,000 defenders: 1,140,000 attackers: 820,000 relative strength: near-peer, favoring attacker length: 5 months 1 week 3 days outcome: defender victory Mariupol area: 64 sq km population: 446,000 defenders: 3,500-8,000 attackers: 14,000 relative strength: peer vs peer length: 2 months 3 weeks 5 days outcome: attacker victory From which I made the following guesses: Gaza area: 45 sq km population: 590,000 defenders: TBD, probably thousands or tens of thousands attackers: TBD, probably tens of thousands or over one hundred thousand relative strength: assymetric, favoring attacker length: TBD, probably 1-2 months outcome: TBD, probably attacker victory Edited October 27, 2023 by Centurian52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 (edited) Top cam here seems like it is near incoming artillery: Edited October 27, 2023 by akd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, Centurian52 said: Anyone want to risk guessing how long it will take? No idea, but if SF2 (SF3!!) had Merkava's and Namer AFVs we could simulate it. Oh, and we would probably need some more types of drones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted October 27, 2023 Share Posted October 27, 2023 50 minutes ago, Probus said: No idea, but if SF2 (SF3!!) had Merkava's and Namer AFVs we could simulate it. Oh, and we would probably need some more types of drones. And tunnels. Lots of tunnels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted October 28, 2023 Share Posted October 28, 2023 4 hours ago, Centurian52 said: Anyone want to risk guessing how long it will take? It's a small area, with an overwhelming balance of power in Israel's favor, both of which indicate a short operation. But it's also a very dense urban area, which pushes things back in the direction of being a long operation. For the fighting over the city of Gaza itself I'm gonna guess in the vicinity of 1-2 months. I expect to be wrong, but in which direction? My thinking is based on eyeballing a small sample of the first few urban battles that came to mind, which I jotted down in a text file: Falluja area: 30 sq km population: 250,000 1st battle defenders: 3,600 attackers: 2,200 relative strength: assymetric, favoring attacker length: 3 weeks 6 days outcome: defender victory 2nd battle defenders: 4,000 attackers: 13,350 relative strength: assymetric, favoring attacker length: 1 month, 2 weeks, 2 days outcome: attacker victory Stalingrad area: 859 sq km population: 900,000 defenders: 1,140,000 attackers: 820,000 relative strength: near-peer, favoring attacker length: 5 months 1 week 3 days outcome: defender victory Mariupol area: 64 sq km population: 446,000 defenders: 3,500-8,000 attackers: 14,000 relative strength: peer vs peer length: 2 months 3 weeks 5 days outcome: attacker victory From which I made the following guesses: Gaza area: 45 sq km population: 590,000 defenders: TBD, probably thousands or tens of thousands attackers: TBD, probably tens of thousands or over one hundred thousand relative strength: assymetric, favoring attacker length: TBD, probably 1-2 months outcome: TBD, probably attacker victory My guess: Attacker victory in less than one month from the launch of the ground invasion. At least for North Gaza. Maybe another month for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 Several headliner stories from the Israeli War: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone I thought I'd list the one link instead of the 5+ links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anthony P. Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 On 10/27/2023 at 11:52 AM, LongLeftFlank said: https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/hard-lessons-from-israels-high-tech We moderns have come to misperceive how things work, misplace our faith in systems, and often accidentally make ourselves more rather than less vulnerable to chaos.... “Because we don’t cross the fence, the other side has become strategically stronger,” as they’d been handed operational initiative." [IDF Col Vach, 2019]... Col. John Boyd, who helped develop modern maneuver warfare (and is maybe best known for inventing the “OODA Loop”) [preached]: “People, ideas, machines – in that order!”.... Boyd had seen for himself the perils of overreliance on Big Brain tech wizardry in Vietnam.... Based on the exaggerations and, to put it mildy, stress testing the limits of truth in regards to Boyd, I'd think once or twice about source criticism. Boyd certainly never "helped develop modern maneuver warfare"; nor did he see service in Vietnam; absolutely was never involved in training pilots dogfight during the era. The idea that the omission of guns in fighters was the issue as opposed to the lacking air combat training was disproved by the fact that the US Navy kill ratios went back up to normal levels with the introduction of Top Gun. They did not reintroduce guns on their fighters until much later. Boyd is part of the "reformer" clique (verified nutjobs like Sprey, Burton, etc. who wanted masses of radar and missile less short ranged fighters and hordes of M-60 tanks instead of M-1s) and much if not everything that stems from his biography should be discounted or at least subjected to intense prior scrutiny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 (edited) I've got to second @Anthony P. here. Boyd is not a source to be taken seriously. Same goes for Sprey and the rest of the reformer lot. If it turns out they've gotten something right about modern warfare, then it's more likely a "broken clock is right twice a day" sort of situation, than any real insight on their part. But in the interest of not straying too far off topic, does anyone have any details on how the ground operation is going? Looking at liveuamap it looks like the Israelis are cutting a path between Gaza city and Al-Mughraqa. Looks like a good path to isolate Gaza city without having to engage in too much urban fighting just yet. Last report is a few hours old so it's possible that they've already reached the coast by now. https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/ Edited October 31, 2023 by Centurian52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probus Posted October 31, 2023 Share Posted October 31, 2023 2 hours ago, Centurian52 said: does anyone have any details on how the ground operation is going? It is difficult getting reliable info on what's going on. I guess the IDF is pretty closed lips. The War Zone has a lot of articles concerning the war: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thewood1 Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 You want tactical discussions? Try this. https://www.steelbeasts.com/topic/17301-the-story-of-a-merkava-company-co-on-october-7th/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MHW Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 4 hours ago, Thewood1 said: You want tactical discussions? Try this. https://www.steelbeasts.com/topic/17301-the-story-of-a-merkava-company-co-on-october-7th/ That sounds like a mad world. "If you count the tanks that were damaged, starting from Saturday at noon until significant reinforcements arrived on Sunday afternoon, Z*'s tank is the only one that was combat-ready in the entire sector (19 kilometers)." I'm noticing stories from October 7th that report on commanders who go off and fight their own individual fight. There was the Chief of Infantry and Paratroopers who grabbed two men and headed south, and in this account, a tank company commander takes his tank fire-brigading around the area. Look back to 1973 and you come back to Zvika Greengold fighting a one-tank battle along the Tapline Road. Is this just how the stories come across? Was the situation so desperate and the forces so thinly stretched? Or is there something about the IDF that helps turn individual commanders into heroes fighting solo battles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chibot Mk IX Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 Looks like the Demo Charge is used to disable the APS system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Looks 2x Trophy APS interceptions from the same tank against incoming RPGs. I assumed Trophy included some sort of fire location system, but the tank does not appear to respond to the clearly visible firing location. Maybe not effective in such a dense, close environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Large number of close range RPG ambushes of IDF armor. Hard to tell how many were effective hits due to editing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Der Zeitgeist Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 44 minutes ago, akd said: Large number of close range RPG ambushes of IDF armor. Hard to tell how many were effective hits due to editing. Take that, CM-spotting-complainers! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redwolf Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 1 hour ago, akd said: Large number of close range RPG ambushes of IDF armor. Hard to tell how many were effective hits due to editing. Looks like they have semi-heavy weapons in abundance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said: Take that, CM-spotting-complainers! People are usually complaining tanks spot nearby infantry too easily 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 New Eilat APC in use: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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