How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Raptor341]

31 minutes ago, kraze said:

Problem is - they will try again. They will always keep trying because they have nukes and we don't - or at least until we get a nuclear umbrella. But unless we are in NATO we aren't getting that. And try getting into NATO fast enough. But hey - I agree it's better than nothing.

BUT!

The war will happen much sooner than later if the West will decide to play ball with the "new" russian government. It's very obvious that russian mentality and culture are that of an invader and unless those change - there will always be trouble.

What should happen is a controlled disintegration of Russia while taking away their nukes. Like if you want sanctions lifted - give away nukes. Period. Anything less - is another war. Maybe not with us - but who cares when it will result in mass suffering again for somebody else?

And then it can finally disintegrate, become just another bloody page of history and leave the area in peace.

One can hope - this is the ideal outcome for sure 

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

I'm pretty sure you're right, giving UA raw data instead of processed target lists would be really counterproductive. What the guy giving the briefing meant was that US is not coordinating the strikes, it's up to UA to decide what targets they want to hit, probably they know better anyway. What's important is that it seems to work

The Ukrainians are systematically disassembling the military infrastructure the LPR/DPR have been building up since 2014. I strongly suspect the Ukrainians have been assembling a targeting list for just as long. It is just that between Russians already launching a full bore shooting war, and having HIMARS, they can do something about it in a very kinetic way.

[Beleg85]

The fight for oil plant SW of Lisichansk seem to be raging hard. If UA will loose control there, entire salient may be on the verge of being cut off by fire. There are probably hard decisions soon to be made on line between UA General Staff and country Political Leadership.

https://twitter.com/kosmi64833127/status/1541431894235037696/photo/1

 

[dan/california]

The Soldiers are orders of magnitude more important than Lisichansk.

 

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, Grigb said:

Regarding Belarus Nukes discussion, here is quote from recent Putin-Luka meeting:

 

Ah yes, send us all your SU-25s, and we’ll upgrade them to each able to carry nukes. I vaguely remember the Soviet Union telling Afghanistan to send them all their vehicle batteries and they world upgrade them for free. Afghanistan gleefully sent the USSR all their vehicle batteries (including from their armor), at which point the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan.

[THH149]

What's the Russain response to long range HIMARS etc fires? I presume there's some kind of countermeasures.

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, THH149 said:

What's the Russain response to long range HIMARS etc fires? I presume there's some kind of countermeasures.

 

dying

[paxromana]

55 minutes ago, THH149 said:

What's the Russain response to long range HIMARS etc fires? I presume there's some kind of countermeasures.

 

Meaningless bombastic threats?

Hypocritically moaning about how unfair it is?

And, as sburke sez, 'dying' ... hopefully in large numbers (more majors perhaps?)

[Taranis]

France announces the dispatch of armored and armed transport vehicles to Ukraine
Paris will send "significant quantities" of armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, announced the French Minister for the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu in an interview published Monday evening June 27. "To move quickly in areas under enemy fire, armies need armored vehicles," he said in an interview with Parisian-Today in France and broadcast on the daily's website. France will therefore “deliver, in significant quantities, transport vehicles of this type, VAB (Véhicule de l'Avant Blindée = Armored Forward Vehicles), which are armed”, he adds.

Mr. Lecornu also confirms the sending to Ukraine of six additional Caesar guns, the flagship of French artillery, beyond the twelve already deployed against the Russians. However, he does not give any details on the date scheduled for the dispatch of this additional reinforcement which had been announced by the Head of State Emmanuel Macron on June 16 during his visit to kyiv.

As for the delivery of anti-ship missiles, requested by kyiv to "open breaches in this maritime blockade imposed by Russia and which deprives many countries of deliveries of cereals and raw materials", this "is part of the files examined" , adds the minister, without giving more details. Since the start of the military offensive launched by Moscow in Ukraine on February 24, Paris has delivered to kyiv, beyond Caesar cannons, Milan anti-tank missiles and even Mistral anti-aircraft missiles. In mid-April, Florence Parly, then Minister of the Armed Forces, had estimated the military equipment delivered by France to Ukraine at more than one hundred million euros.

 

[Taranis]

"A military vehicle used to dig trenches, on the road between Seversk and Lyssytchansk, in the Donbass region, on June 26, 2022. BAGUS SARAGIH / AFP"

"RAFAEL YAGHOBZADEH FOR “LE MONDE”"

 

 

 

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I'm beginning to think that Russia falling apart as Galeev suggested in a bloody civil war might be the best case scenario for everyone except Russia. Which is pretty bleak thing to hope for.

Galeev is right. Break up of RU is the best-case scenario. But it will be good even for Russians. Because it will put an end to their imperialist siege mentality indoctrination. For example, Siberians are different from Central Russians. They dislike Moscow government and basically have no reason to hate Ukrainians except because of imperialist siege mentality indoctrination. They are dying just because they were indoctrinated into the imperialist cult. 

Breakup will save a lot of lives.

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, kraze said:

Navalny is literally the same as putin. There is no difference between them.

They are different. Putin is KGB clan. Navalny unofficial Party clan. It is like Stalin and Khrushchev. Yes, they were both criminal leaders of USSR. But they were very different. 

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, kraze said:

Ah but that's where you are wrong. Here's just a recent random YT comment on one of our local channels by an absolutely typical russian liberal that hates putin with all his heart:

That's not classical RU liberal. It is centrist. Classical RU liberal will not help RU army under any circumstances due to the knowledge about RU army previous crimes. And RU Victory for classical RU liberal is unacceptable. The example is Alexander Nevzorov who BTW got recently UKR citizenship.   

[Taranis]

↑ Interesting video on Ukrainian armored OOB and equipment used

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

Maybe I'm naive, but opening up Russia to free and uncensored media, TV, music, internet, news, etc. may do more to change behavior and mindset than putting a gun to their heads.   Eliminate or temper the uber ultra-nationalistic talking heads on their TV. 

The problem is the same as with No fly zone - you cannot do it remotely. You have to got there and do staff close and personal. You cannot remotely prevent RU government from controlling RU media.  Also Media is just a part of the problem. Another part is the educational system. There is a reason why RU kidnaps UKR kids and puts them in to RU education system.

You cannot fix and keep it that way both Media and Education remotely. You have to go and occupy RU which is not feasible.

Edited June 28, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Civilian "Girkin" about RU Fuel and Energy Complex

Quote

Since June 24, the Fuel and Energy Complex has stopped providing information on gas production, its consumption in the subjects of the Russian Federation and economic sectors. The data, which was previously disclosed monthly, is closed from the public for an "indefinite period". The coal statistics are unavailable as well.

The situation, apparently, is so far from the norm that they have to take such drastic measures. These figures won't say much to the general public anyway, they obviously block statistics for specialists.

This is not the most effective measure, since a specialist can understand the overall picture of what is happening indirectly, but do not forget that governance in the country is below the plinth [means very bad], and therefore people who make such decisions seriously project their [dumb] understanding to everyone else. Simply put, they can't even understand that there are people smarter than them, and therefore such measures are pure infantilism. If I hide under the blanket, the monster from under the bed won't find me.

 

[Grigb]

Nationalists announced the next target for offensive after Lisichansk - Kharkov. Whether they will be able to take Lisichansk at all is another matter. 

Quote

SP: ALLIED FORCES ARE PREPARING AN OFFENSIVE ON KHARKIV AFTER THE FALL OF LISICHANSK
Kiev has literally stuffed the settlements of the Kharkiv region with heavy armored vehicles, from where it strikes at Russian and Donbass territories, which means that after the liberation of Donbass, a decisive battle for Kharkov will begin, writes Konstantin Olshansky, a columnist for the Free Press.
It is important for Russia to clear the entire Kharkiv region from nationalists in order to prevent attacks on the Russian border regions. 

 

Meanwhile nationalist already plan to start new wars with Europe.

Quote

ROZHIN: "AFTER UKRAINE, A SERIES OF LOCAL WARS AWAITS RUSSIA"

Boris Rozhin, an expert at the Center for Military and Political Journalism, spoke about how Russia, after resolving the conflict in Ukraine, will solve problems with Poland, the Baltic states and Sweden and Finland, which are preparing to join NATO.

According to the expert, this is not the last military conflict that awaits the Russian Federation in the near future.

"We are in the conditions of a new cold war with the United States, and since it is necessary to remove the risks of nuclear war, these contradictions will be resolved through a series of local wars on the territory of other states, as it was during the last Cold War," Boris Rozhin shared his opinion in an interview with the publication ukraine.ru ", answering a correspondent's question about whether Russia will be able to solve problems with Poland, the Baltic States, Sweden and Finland, or there will also be a war.

It looks like RU got drunk with their latest battlefield advancement. They are seriously believing they are winning the war and Ukraine is on the verge of collapse.

A sobering quote from Girkin

Quote

WHEN TO LONDON?

SP: Allied forces are preparing an offensive on Kharkiv after the fall of Lisichansk

Rozhin: "After Ukraine, a series of local wars awaits Russia"

Lisichansk has not yet been taken, and one "military expert" is already announcing the "capture of Kharkov", and another - our famous "Colonel Kassad" - is completely predicting a "series of wars with NATO" in "third countries".
However, all of them are still far from the late "Bati" Zakharchenko: they don't even stutter [mention] about the capture of London yet, but the general direction of "military-analytical thought" is enjoyable [sarcasm].

 

[Taranis]

New Jomini thread 11-27 June 2022:

 

[Bulletpoint]

13 hours ago, Artkin said:

I'm surprised that flimsy house held together with such a massive crater next to it. Maybe the earth under the road was just very soft? 

I think it's just a trick of the camera. The crater is big, but it's smaller than it appears in the picture because the camera is close to it. While the house and the telephone pole are farther away than they appear. The people are not standing on the crater edge but in the background.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Taranis said:

↑ Interesting video on Ukrainian armored OOB and equipment used

Author shows old TO&E with 40 tank in the battalion. Though in 2014 we had two types of battlions 31-tank for tank brigade and 40-tank for mech.brigade. In 2015 due to losses all battlions became 31-tank type. I also met the number 33 tanks, but I can't imagine where theese "superflous" tanks can be included, maybe in signal unit, for use of battalion HQ

Also he says about sniper company in tank brigade, but indded this is sniper platoon. The company was in 2014

Edited June 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[DMS]

9 hours ago, Raptor341 said:

One can hope - this is the ideal outcome for sure 

It's ironic that I read this topic to find another source of information and avoid official propaganda, but I find here confirmation of official propaganda scary tales about NATO leaders who plan to destroy and disintegrate Russia. (Well, you are not NATO leaders - but if public is ok with that, why leaders would not) And you ask: why Russians are stuck around that disgusting government. Because they (we) are scared of you, Putin is bad, but if he looses - here come people like Haiduk, who "will show Sudetes" and your collaborators like Grig, who will help disintegrating Russia. No way out. Ok, then we are cornered rats.

Edited June 28, 2022 by DMS

[Huba]

According to Girkin, UA is retreating from the whole Lysychansk salient. Must've been a hard decision to make, but tactically it's surely a sound one. He also says that UA is rotating out brigades mauled in fights around Severodonetsk, replacing them with freshly created units.

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Medvedev: Crimea for us is a part of Russia. And this is forever. Any attempt to encroach on Crimea - this is declaring of war to Russia. And if a NATO-memeber country does it, this is a conflict with whole NATO. This is Third world war. Total catastrophe. 

https://aif.ru/politics/world/dmitriy_medvedev_aif_ru_bezyadernyy_status_baltiki_uydyot_v_proshloe

Heh... From "We will take Kyiv in three days to if any encroach on Crimea". Damned Kremlin midgets.  

Edited June 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Author shows old TO&E with 40 tank in the battalion. Though in 2014 we had two types of battlions 31-tank for tank brigade and 40-tank for mech.brigade. In 2015 due to losses all battlions became 31-tank type. I also met the number 33 tanks, but I can't imagine where theese "superflous" tanks can be included, maybe in signal unit, for use of battalion HQ

Also he says about sniper company in tank brigade, but indded this is sniper platoon. The company was in 2014

Thank you Haiduk for this valuable informations and details. 

[Slaughterhouse-Five]

Galeev is right. Break up of RU is the best-case scenario. But it will be good even for Russians. Because it will put an end to their imperialist siege mentality indoctrination. 

In its place will appear 10 smaller countries with Putin-like dictators with the nuclear codes. It will be bad for everyone.