How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

35 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Oh I did not know that

If it's the Rheinmetall smoke round, it's based on red phosphorus, which is more stable than white phosphorus and can actually be extinguished after it started burning.

Unfortunately the official German site does not mention the type number, it only says "21.000 smoke/illumination shells for 155mm".

But I simply doubt Germany of all places would sneak white phosphorus shells into Ukraine under that term, since everyone here gets their panties in a bunch when the IDF sends illumination rounds up over Gaza.

(since places of origin have been a topic recently, I am half German, half Polish, with german citizenship, and living for job reasons partially in Germany, Austria and Switzerland)

Edited 14 hours ago by Carolus

[panzermartin]

Seeing Russia advancing on all contact lines in Donbas and also seeing the complete ruins left behind in each settlement, one can wonder, who will inhabit/rebuild these places when the war is over?

Even the soil must be destroyed and burnt in depth given the massive and widespread artillery fires.

Unless they will be forcing population to return there or offering housing for free, who would like to risk getting trapped in another future conflict, getting shelled from time to time etc.

I saw some staged video from rebuilt Mariupol (just a small city portion with new blocks of buildings)but no news since then.

Edit, looks like Simcity Mariupol now: 

 

Edited 14 hours ago by panzermartin

[Carolus]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Seeing Russia advancing on all contact lines in Donbas and also seeing the complete ruins left behind in each settlement, one can wonder, who will inhabit/rebuild these places when the war is over?

Even the soil must be destroyed and burnt in depth given the massive and widespread artillery fires.

Unless they will be forcing population to return there or offering housing for free, who would like to risk getting trapped in another future conflict, getting shelled from time to time etc.

I saw some staged video from rebuilt Marioupol (just a small portion with new blocks of buildings of the city)but no news since then.

 

Putin has many options.

Ukrainian slave labor, especially for EOD removal, but the hinterlands of Russia are full of people who are used to being deported here or there for the great Russian cause, and will have a strict eye on the locals to boot. Chinese and North Korean labor is also possible.

[LongLeftFlank]

20 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Seeing Russia advancing on all contact lines in Donbas and also seeing the complete ruins left behind in each settlement, one can wonder, who will inhabit/rebuild these places when the war is over?

Even the soil must be destroyed and burnt in depth given the massive and widespread artillery fires.

Unless they will be forcing population to return there or offering housing for free, who would like to risk getting trapped in another future conflict, getting shelled from time to time etc.

I saw some staged video from rebuilt Marioupol (just a small portion with new blocks of buildings of the city)but no news since then.

 

For some definition of 'advancing on all contact lines in the Donbas'. As in, glacially advancing. 

This entire region's economy is based on mining, as well as farming. That's why Vuhledar exists: they built a processing facility and a densely built cluster of ugly apartment blocks out on the open steppes. And strip mining involves removing 'overburden' (topsoil and tailings). So, this was kind of a despoiled zone anyway, ecologically.

I am talking my book here, but postwar, solar energy farming (and wind) is a very solid possibility. Solar is made of sunshine and LAND, lots of flat open land, preferably serving minimal other economic (or ecological) purpose. 

With the right security protocols, it can be installed in high risk areas (I have direct experience with this in SE Asia), with sheep grazing beneath (who may on occasion go BOOM). Over time, you can also cultivate in the shaded zone.

Obviously, all the above needs to be done the same way you kiss a porcupine: very carefully, with, oh, military precision. And it will definitely be costly: no one cent power and booyah 20% extractive returns here for the clean energy bros; it's a stodgy regulated utility business. They could in fact build everything they need, panels, inverters, etc. right in Ukraine. Jerbs for the heroes!

(I am simplifying all of this cuz gaming board, and I don't have time to write a lengthy essay, but it is all entirely feasible from a technical standpoint. And with EU support/offtake for the energy, or even better, fund factories in UA that use it! it could be a good win-win)

Anyway, it's time we said SOMETHING positive here.

Edited 14 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Come on, now. I think we arm chair generals who have no real stakes in this whatsoever have no right to pass judgement on these people. There are people who generally like to live more than they like to die.

 

True. But here is the thing, while they hide out in another country someone else is doing the dying who would probably prefer to live as well. Fighting for ones people is not about “you” it is about “them”. And I realize this is a tough sell in a Gen Me world, but the old gods are running the show in this war. A person has to decide whether their own life is worth more than one of their people. It is a question of sacrifice. In the case of Ukraine this war is about as existential as they come. If a young man, fit and able, decides that their life is more important than the lives of others, then they have to be ready to live with what comes next.

If enough of them make the same choice…well I guess we will all have to live with it.

 

[The_Capt]

Whelp that didn’t take long:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/donald-trump-says-ukraine-is-dead-and-dismisses-its-defence-against-russia-s-invasion-1.7052360

I am not sure how making America great includes tucking tail and giving a genocidal dictator concessions. Maybe I do not understand the subtle nuances of the American political scene. I am starting to wonder if this whole drama wasn’t a ploy to flush Trump out.

[billbindc]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whelp that didn’t take long:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/donald-trump-says-ukraine-is-dead-and-dismisses-its-defence-against-russia-s-invasion-1.7052360

I am not sure how making America great includes tucking tail and giving a genocidal dictator concessions. Maybe I do not understand the subtle nuances of the American political scene. I am starting to wonder if this whole drama wasn’t a ploy to flush Trump out.

I think that’s a fair take. I’m pretty clear now that Trump never changed his spots on Ukraine and was doing his normal campaign thing of promising everything to everyone. 

[Butschi]

49 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

True. But here is the thing, while they hide out in another country someone else is doing the dying who would probably prefer to live as well. Fighting for ones people is not about “you” it is about “them”. And I realize this is a tough sell in a Gen Me world, but the old gods are running the show in this war. A person has to decide whether their own life is worth more than one of their people. It is a question of sacrifice. In the case of Ukraine this war is about as existential as they come. If a young man, fit and able, decides that their life is more important than the lives of others, then they have to be ready to live with what comes next.

If enough of them make the same choice…well I guess we will all have to live with it.

 

All true. My point is, just as with people here saying there should be peace negotiations because the dying and suffering in Ukraine should end (talking about those who actually mean well not the ones who want to do business with Russia again), it is simply not our call to make because it is not us who have to face the consequences. It is up to the Ukrainians to decide whether they want to fight or not.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure how making America great includes tucking tail and giving a genocidal dictator concessions.

Make Trump Great Again (MTGA) simply doesn't sound all that great...

[billbindc]

 

[CHARLIE43]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

At which point President Zelensky simply replied to Speaker Johnson...."NUTS!".

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/massive-russian-ship-packed-with-explosive-cargo-closes-in-on-london/ar-AA1rbY5F?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=d5ba504d1cda45e39dff0cb2aed770b1&ei=989

New target selected - London!

[Lieutenant Ash]

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=SS_Richard_Montgomery&oldid=1243772382

Maybe they will do a twofer and park it next to the wreck of the S.S. Montgomery.

[Eug85]

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3970?single

Sergey Flash posted on his Telegram channel photos of a drone on fiber optics that flew 9 km deep into Ukrainian positions. He especially emphasized that this is no longer the Kursk region, but the Donetsk region. Hinting that this technology is spreading quickly

[Eug85]

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3973

And this is the testing of the drone of the mother from the Ukrainians. Sergey flash says that the enemy is already using this technology

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Gets to my nerves when I see armchair generals with back issues who never fired a rifle in their lives to demand some foreign young people to go and die so they can drink their morning coffee feeling victorious. If this is truly a West survival war you can all go and volunteer and not expect Ukrainians to do the dirty job for you.

Even chosen one Israel is recruiting african asylum seekers (a disgrace if you ask me). I see everyday many israelis fleeing to my country, buying homes etc, so yes, even in a favorable odds war most people don't really want to risk their own lives.

 

 

Cowards, all of them.

I served my country when I was called, a long time ago. And longer than I was obliged to. Fortunately not in a war, but I wouldn't have fled to Greece. It's called duty. Not a fashionable word among younger people nowadays, but they will soon learn the meaning of it.

[cesmonkey]

 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/26/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-u-s-support-for-ukraine/

Quote

Today, I am announcing that:

I have directed the Department of Defense to allocate all of its remaining security assistance funding that has been appropriated for Ukraine by the end of my term in office. As part of this effort, the Department of Defense will allocate the remaining Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funds by the end of this year. I also have authorized $5.5 billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority to ensure this authority does not expire, so that my Administration can fully utilize the funding appropriated by Congress to support the drawdown of U.S. equipment for Ukraine and then replenish U.S. stockpiles.
The Department of Defense is announcing $2.4 billion in security assistance through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which will provide Ukraine with additional air defense, Unmanned Aerial Systems, and air-to-ground munitions, as well as strengthen Ukraine’s defense industrial base and support its maintenance and sustainment requirements.
To enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, I have decided to provide Ukraine with the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) long-range munition.
To further strengthen Ukraine’s air defenses, I have directed the Department of Defense to refurbish and provide Ukraine with an additional Patriot air defense battery and to provide Ukraine with additional Patriot missiles. This builds on my decision earlier this year to divert U.S. air defense exports to Ukraine, which will provide Ukraine with hundreds of additional Patriot and AMRAAM missiles over the next year and will help Ukraine defend its cities and its people.
To build the capacity of Ukraine’s air force, I have directed the Department of Defense to expand training for Ukrainian F-16 pilots, including by supporting the training of an additional 18 pilots next year.
To counter Russian sanctions evasion and money laundering, the Department of Justice, the Department of the Treasury, and the U.S. Secret Service have taken action today to disrupt a global cryptocurrency network, in coordination with international partners. The United States will continue to raise the costs on Russia for its war in Ukraine and to deprive the Russian defense industrial base of resources.
I will convene a leader-level meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany next month to coordinate the efforts of the more than 50 countries supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression.

 

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

Come on, now. I think we arm chair generals who have no real stakes in this whatsoever have no right to pass judgement on these people. There are people who generally like to live more than they like to die.

 

Those Ukrainian guys in their trenches, mud and filth like to live, but they at least have the decency to die for their wives, children and old folks if necessary.

 

Edited 9 hours ago by Aragorn2002
Reason

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Lieutenant Ash said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/massive-russian-ship-packed-with-explosive-cargo-closes-in-on-london/ar-AA1rbY5F?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=d5ba504d1cda45e39dff0cb2aed770b1&ei=989

New target selected - London!

 

10 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

High time to take the gloves off. We're already at war and escalation is inevitable. I know Europe is waiting for the US elections, which is understandable, but we must be prepared.

 

This floating IED is a case study in what I think Aragon is talking about. This things needs to be towed as far out as feasible and detonated. An endless tizzy about it in the press about it is exactly what Putin wants. If the Russians send another one it needs to "accidentally" blow up as soon as it rounds the top of Norway where the only victims are fish. I am sure the Ukrainians could send a drone team if that would make the diplomatic niceties work better.

Edited 8 hours ago by dan/california

[billbindc]

On 9/24/2024 at 8:21 PM, billbindc said:

I think in time we will find out that Zelensky's supporters in Congress had been hearing disturbing things, Zelensky wangled an invite to the US and before he arrived the Trump campaign made it clear he was unwelcome. 

Put a pin in it.

Btw…this is exactly what happened.

[Kraft]

Quote

World’s first 9334 km / 5,800 mile range hydrogen-powered drone revealed in Seoul

[..]

The drone recently flew remotely in Germany, while its operators were located nearly 5,778 miles away in South Korea.

It also flew autonomously in the US, 5,618 miles from the drone’s operators in South Korea. 

[..]

Unlike other drones, which can fly for 10 to 30 minutes using lithium batteries, the Hogreen Air drones can fly for more than 14 hours.

[..]

Uses 5G / Mobile Network

Payload 10kg

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/hydrogen-drone-long-range-korea

Edited 8 hours ago by Kraft

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Kraft said:

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/hydrogen-drone-long-range-korea

I am sure they are not cheap, but they sure seem like the ticket for signal relays, jamming, or maybe even a low power radar.

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Cowards, all of them.

I served my country when I was called, a long time ago. And longer than I was obliged to. Fortunately not in a war, but I wouldn't have fled to Greece. It's called duty. Not a fashionable word among younger people nowadays, but they will soon learn the meaning of it.

I was about to make a snarky remark but seriously you must realize that doing your duty in peacetime (when the alternative was going to jail?) is a different kind "bravery" than when joining the army means to actually risk your life.

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I was about to make a snarky remark but seriously you must realize that doing your duty in peacetime (when the alternative was going to jail?) is a different kind "bravery" than when joining the army means to actually risk your life.

Whoa whoa whoa, let's not start degrading someone's military service, especially when we don't know anything about their service.  And they could've been in a shooting situation at any time under active service.  

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Cowards, all of them.

I served my country when I was called, a long time ago. And longer than I was obliged to. Fortunately not in a war, but I wouldn't have fled to Greece. It's called duty. Not a fashionable word among younger people nowadays, but they will soon learn the meaning of it.

I don't really know anymore what coward means. I feel like why not the drone operators are cowards. How can I call coward someone who doesnt want to be killed by a remote controlled drone or instant laser artillery. Maybe past wars battle had some sense of "nobility". 

Multiple drone drops on a wounded and crouching soldier is what we get nowadays, that's sick, I fcking hate it and wouldn't want to be part of this god forbid. I hope not. Feels like a transition from human warfare to all robotic warfare, where now human infantry are the last unlucky ones to die before "dying in a war" gets a frame in a museum. 

I don't feel I have the stomach to call anyone a coward as I haven't experienced battle myself. I just shot some rounds with a G3 and lost some days of sleep guarding empty places. I know I feel sorry for the ukrainians that had no alternative while their countrymen are in vacations in Mediterranean but would you call a random ukrainian a coward if you met him in your neighborhood? I know I couldn't.