How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sail her to the Baltic, with letters of marque to waylay LNG ships.

Sink, Burn or take her a Prize.

Sorry to be the nit picker, but being a navy vessel, she does not need a letter of marque. What she needs is a blockade to enforce. If the Ukraine declared a blockade of Russian Black Sea ports, declared Russian oil contraband and had some way of actually proving the origin of oil carried in tankers (no idea if feasible), then in theory she could become the scourge of the "shadow fleet" of tankers which so far are effectively allowing RUS to dodge the sanctions. I read somewhere they are mostly Greek owned.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Yes. Good show all around. 

I for one had no idea APS has as strong signal presence and it completely rewired my understanding of the issue. 

I have said it before (and I know sometimes it does not look like it) the aim here is not to be “right or wrong”, it is to keep trying to understand.  I may have low tolerance for biases and non-factual based positions but if someone comes with good research and facts…well then we are having a good conversation.

As to all of this - well we are really just going to have to keep on watching.  Keep posting relevant stuff (Hunter Gathers) and us old farts sitting around the fire will keep offering our brown-pearls of wisdom in trying to figure out what is happening.

Edited June 5 by The_Capt

[A Canadian Cat]

On 6/1/2024 at 10:45 AM, Haiduk said:

And one of these already done it work

Tis but a scratch.

Seriously though you quoted a story about real guns sometimes getting repaired multiple times. This decoy gun looks pretty repairable. I wonder how many of them have been wrecked multiple times.

 

On 6/1/2024 at 10:45 AM, Haiduk said:

I wonder how much of such stuff mistakingly counted by Orix team as real losses.

The after action analysis that will no doubt be still happening in 2030 will be interesting. We are going to need to keep this thread around for some ground truth to support / refute that analysis.

 

[A Canadian Cat]

On 6/4/2024 at 2:01 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Which gets us back to how can we protect thousands of weight restricted vehicles from being blown up by UAVs costing as little as a few hundred USD?  All resources and attention need to be focused on that.

Given the current ideas of APS, ERA and Gatling guns that automatically shoot anything that flies will not work on a truck.

APS - proximate explosions are super bad when you are driving a truck with no real armour projection.

EAR - and explosions directly next to you are even worse

Gatling guns - sure fine for *my* truck but what about my buddy in the truck in front - he's not going to be happy when 1000 rounds of .556, .762, .50cal or 25mm or whatever shred his truck because the drone got low and in font of mine.

So, currently we got zero ideas on how to do this.

Oh right I forgot EW. As someone pointed out autonomous targeting will decrease the effectiveness of that possibly to zero for trucks. Current self driving tech can already ID trucks so the work to get autonomous targeting to work on logistics trains is way ahead of the work to get jamming into every convoy.

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Tis but a scratch.

Seriously though you quoted a story about real guns sometimes getting repaired multiple times. This decoy gun looks pretty repairable. I wonder how many of them have been wrecked multiple times.

 

The after action analysis that will no doubt be still happening in 2030 will be interesting. We are going to need to keep this thread around for some ground truth to support / refute that analysis.

 

Best thing about Oryx is that every “kill” can be clicked on and you get a pic.  Now is every pic legit?  Is every kill accurate?  I would be surprised if it was 100% but even at 80% this is open source intelligence that simply has never been available, this early, for any war in history.

[A Canadian Cat]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Best thing about Oryx is that every “kill” can be clicked on and you get a pic.  Now is every pic legit?  Is every kill accurate?  I would be surprised if it was 100% but even at 80% this is open source intelligence that simply has never been available, this early, for any war in history.

Oh cool so we could start looking for mock M177s in the data already. I'm trying to figure out if that would be a fun project or a massive pain in the ***

[FancyCat]

Google translated some paragraphs. 

Quote

The Russians have tripled the number of their troops in Ukraine, compared to the beginning of the great invasion. At the beginning of June, an army of 550,000 troops was deployed in the temporarily occupied territories and near the border, the Main Directorate of Intelligence told LIGA.net .

The occupying group of Russians now has about 520,000 military personnel, according to LIGA.net in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense. In addition, in the temporarily occupied territories there are about 32,000 representatives of the Russian Guard, the FSB and other law enforcement agencies that perform police functions.

For comparison: on February 24, 2022, a Russian group numbering 180,000 invaded Ukraine. In November 2023, there were more than 400,000 occupiers on the territory of Ukraine.

https://www.liga.net/ua/politics/articles/vtrychi-bilshe-nizh-u-liutomu-2022-ho-yak-armiia-rosii-adaptuietsia-do-viiny-i-shcho-tse-znachyt

meanwhile we get this bull****. WHY THE **** ARE WE SLOW GOING THIS. 

Quote

Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training, saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv.

Ukraine says it has 30 pilots who are eligible to start training in the U.S. immediately. Yet the Biden administration has told Kyiv it lacks the school seats in its Arizona-based program to accept more than 12 pilot trainees at a time, according to three people with direct knowledge of the request. Two other facilities in Denmark and Romania have a similar issue with available training spots.

In a series of meetings and calls over the last several weeks, Ukraine has officially requested the U.S. train the additional pilots at Morris Air National Guard base in Tucson, Arizona. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the leaders of the House Intelligence Committee, have also pressed the administration to approve the additional training. The pair, along with several other lawmakers, wrote the Pentagon a letter last month asking the administration to prioritize the issue.

But the U.S. has told the Ukrainian military that in addition to limited space, other countries are in line for F-16 training at the base and that it cannot break its commitments to those nations.

“We understand they don’t want to break those contracts, but they could move their American pilots to a different base for training,” said Sasha Ustinova, a Ukrainian lawmaker who has advocated for the training.

The National Guard is planning to train 12 Ukrainian pilots total by the end of September at the Tucson location, according to Air Force spokesperson Laurel Falls. Aside from Arizona, the training facility in Denmark also has limited space and is preparing to shutter in November. A third program, which is located in Romania and will be run by contractors, is not yet up and running.

“Dozens” of pilots from several countries are conducting basic flight training and F-16 training in the U.S. and Europe, said Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Charlie Dietz, declining to confirm specific numbers.

A total of 20 Ukrainian F-16 pilots are expected to graduate by the end of this year — half of the 40 needed to operate a full squadron of 20 jets, according to the former DOD official. Eight new pilots are scheduled to begin training in Romania, and eight more will soon arrive in Tucson, the former official said. The facility in Denmark will not accept any additional pilots.

But at this rate, Ukraine won’t have a full squadron of trained pilots until the end of 2025, the former official said.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/05/ukraine-f-16-pilot-training-00161742

[The_Capt]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-warns-that-russia-could-provide-long-range-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets-1.6914785

Crap, this @ss hat is probably talking about arming terrorists.

[billbindc]

50 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

This man has truly had his "road to Damascus" moment. Either that, or he suffered a massive stroke.

He put Ronny Jackson on the Intel committee so don't get carried away...

[billbindc]

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have said it before (and I know sometimes it does not look like it) the aim here is not to be “right or wrong”, it is to keep trying to understand.  I may have low tolerance for biases and non-factual based positions but if someone comes with good research and facts…well then we are having a good conversation.

As to all of this - well we are really just going to have to keep on watching.  Keep posting relevant stuff (Hunter Gathers) and us old farts sitting around the fire will keep offering our brown-pearls of wisdom in trying to figure out what is happening.

Of interest: https://mickryan.substack.com/p/is-there-a-revolution-in-military

[holoween]

51 minutes ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Given the current ideas of APS, ERA and Gatling guns that automatically shoot anything that flies will not work on a truck.

APS - proximate explosions are super bad when you are driving a truck with no real armour projection.

EAR - and explosions directly next to you are even worse

Gatling guns - sure fine for *my* truck but what about my buddy in the truck in front - he's not going to be happy when 1000 rounds of .556, .762, .50cal or 25mm or whatever shred his truck because the drone got low and in font of mine.

So, currently we got zero ideas on how to do this.

Oh right I forgot EW. As someone pointed out autonomous targeting will decrease the effectiveness of that possibly to zero for trucks. Current self driving tech can already ID trucks so the work to get autonomous targeting to work on logistics trains is way ahead of the work to get jamming into every convoy.

Most military logistics trucks are already armoured to protect against schrapnel so for the last 20km getting them aps wouldnt be impossible

If you can implement a IFF so the gatling doesnt shoot the trucks that could work aswell

You can also use a pssive aps that simply shoots smoke in front of the drone so it looses the target though thats a temporary fix

Create enough distance between resupply points and frontline to reduce the drone threat to a managable level

Line the roads with automatic gun turrets.

Sure none of it is a perfect solution but if you do nothing you simply never have supplies.

[ArmouredTopHat]

1 hour ago, A Canadian Cat said:

Given the current ideas of APS, ERA and Gatling guns that automatically shoot anything that flies will not work on a truck.

APS - proximate explosions are super bad when you are driving a truck with no real armour projection.

EAR - and explosions directly next to you are even worse

Gatling guns - sure fine for *my* truck but what about my buddy in the truck in front - he's not going to be happy when 1000 rounds of .556, .762, .50cal or 25mm or whatever shred his truck because the drone got low and in font of mine.

So, currently we got zero ideas on how to do this.

Oh right I forgot EW. As someone pointed out autonomous targeting will decrease the effectiveness of that possibly to zero for trucks. Current self driving tech can already ID trucks so the work to get autonomous targeting to work on logistics trains is way ahead of the work to get jamming into every convoy.

I think its a bit unfair to say we have zero ideas on the subject. We have plenty of PD technology that works against a variety of missile threats, its really not that far out to assume we can design and build a small turret that can track and engage drone threats. Weaponry is a no brainer as well, presumably some sort of shotgun type weapon that would be light and reloadable. At that point you have something that can fit on pretty much any vehicle, UGV or otherwise firing literally some of the cheapest munitions available.

https://www.twz.com/tank-active-protection-systems-could-be-used-shoot-down-drones

I did some digging after the recent discussions and it certainly seems that at least with the Americans there is some serious thought about developing such systems. The linked article is honestly really informative. 




Interesting to note that the Ukrainians make it clear that conventional killers on the battlefield are still heavily prevalent as well. 
 

There is clearly a lot of talk about modifying existing current RWS systems as well. 
 

The article even mentions the idea of APS detection systems being slaved to RWS mountings for drone defence like I mentioned earlier, so clearly some level of thought is being considered to this.

Edited June 5 by ArmouredTopHat

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Sorry to be the nit picker, but being a navy vessel, she does not need a letter of marque. What she needs is a blockade to enforce. If the Ukraine declared a blockade of Russian Black Sea ports, declared Russian oil contraband and had some way of actually proving the origin of oil carried in tankers (no idea if feasible), then in theory she could become the scourge of the "shadow fleet" of tankers which so far are effectively allowing RUS to dodge the sanctions. I read somewhere they are mostly Greek owned.

I'm still wondering why they spent the effort and money to get a naval vessel after seeing how pretty much useless they are in this war.  That corvette leaves port she'll be hit by Russian aircraft or subs and if she doesn't leave port... still likely to get sunk.  So basically Ukraine has a ship that shouldn't sail to a Ukrainian port.  I would love to see her interdict Russian tankers, but realistically....

Is she even permitted to transit the Bosporus?  I would assume yes as she would be delivered out of a Turkish shipyard to Ukraine, but then she can't leave the Black sea.

Head scratcher there.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

I'm still wondering why they spent the effort and money to get a naval vessel after seeing how pretty much useless they are in this war.

Yeah, I was wondering same thing.  Kinda like germany spent a gazillion dollars worth of resources on kreigsmarine capital ships which was near total waste of money.  Shoulda just built more subs & Eboats.  

[Général_Hiver]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-warns-that-russia-could-provide-long-range-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets-1.6914785

Crap, this @ss hat is probably talking about arming terrorists.

No evidence, pure speculation, I wonder if this is where the "Moscow Terrorist attacks came from Ukraine" line was going.

[FancyCat]

War will end someday and besides the ship was laid down before the invasion no? Also, a symbol of Ukrainian-Turkish military and economic cooperation, always important to maintain.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I think its a bit unfair to say we have zero ideas on the subject. We have plenty of PD technology that works against a variety of missile threats, its really not that far out to assume we can design and build a small turret that can track and engage drone threats. Weaponry is a no brainer as well, presumably some sort of shotgun type weapon that would be light and reloadable. At that point you have something that can fit on pretty much any vehicle, UGV or otherwise firing literally some of the cheapest munitions available.

https://www.twz.com/tank-active-protection-systems-could-be-used-shoot-down-drones

I did some digging after the recent discussions and it certainly seems that at least with the Americans there is some serious thought about developing such systems. The linked article is honestly really informative. 




Interesting to note that the Ukrainians make it clear that conventional killers on the battlefield are still heavily prevalent as well. 
 

There is clearly a lot of talk about modifying existing current RWS systems as well. 
 

The article even mentions the idea of APS detection systems being slaved to RWS mountings for drone defence like I mentioned earlier, so clearly some level of thought is being considered to this.

I gotta be honest the technology which should be most concerning isnt the sexy unmanned or spicey missiles - although they definitely have punch.  It is the old fashion land mine.  Mines, especially if someone can implement smart mobile landmines, plus all that other stuff is positively lethal to manoeuvre.  Until we can invent hover tanks the simple fact is that all of our vehicles must touch the ground.  And well positioned explosives on the ground make manoeuvre very difficult.  Add in ISR, unmanned and PGM and one simply cannot create conditions for success.

Until something else comes along.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-warns-that-russia-could-provide-long-range-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets-1.6914785

Crap, this @ss hat is probably talking about arming terrorists.

Well, if they do we can start selling Ukraine late model cruise missiles for a dollar a piece.

In a way it sign that Putin is feeling the pressure, though.

[ArmouredTopHat]

31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I gotta be honest the technology which should be most concerning isnt the sexy unmanned or spicey missiles - although they definitely have punch.  It is the old fashion land mine.  Mines, especially if someone can implement smart mobile landmines, plus all that other stuff is positively lethal to manoeuvre.  Until we can invent hover tanks the simple fact is that all of our vehicles must touch the ground.  And well positioned explosives on the ground make manoeuvre very difficult.  Add in ISR, unmanned and PGM and one simply cannot create conditions for success.

Until something else comes along.

Entirely agree that mines are certainly the thing that is restricting manoeuvre more than anything currently. Clearly mine ploughs are not enough. Sappers are horrifically exposed in clearing said mines as well which makes the issue only worse. Not even getting to anti-personnel mines which are even more of a hazard, not to mention morally disgusting. 

I feel that UGVs dedicated to mine clearance might be a potential answer, though half the time the issue is not so much the lack of ability to clear mines but being able to do so expediently. 

I did wonder, seeing as we saw Uavs being used to mark mines either visually or from thermal signature. Perhaps there is some application for an air UAV that can at least designate and identify minefields for easier disposal. 

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Entirely agree that mines are certainly the thing that is restricting manoeuvre more than anything currently. Clearly mine ploughs are not enough. Sappers are horrifically exposed in clearing said mines as well which makes the issue only worse. Not even getting to anti-personnel mines which are even more of a hazard, not to mention morally disgusting. 

I feel that UGVs dedicated to mine clearance might be a potential answer, though half the time the issue is not so much the lack of ability to clear mines but being able to do so expediently. 

I did wonder, seeing as we saw Uavs being used to mark mines either visually or from thermal signature. Perhaps there is some application for an air UAV that can at least designate and identify minefields for easier disposal. 

My sense is that mine/counter mine will be the space when UGV battle comes to the fore.  Our clearance UGVs will clash with their smart, mobile mines and now we have surface leading edge combat.  Meanwhile in the air, drones will be killing drones.  Advantage will go to whoever can sustain that system under pressure - forward machine attrition, manoeuvre through fires and system corrosion until one side collapses and then it will be a massacre until symmetry can be reestablished.  Of course many thought WW2 would be a trench and fortress war too….

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Général_Hiver said:

No evidence, pure speculation, I wonder if this is where the "Moscow Terrorist attacks came from Ukraine" line was going.

Hey, new guy..welcome.  Could be.  I really doubt Belarus is going to start lobbing cruise missiles at Poland on behalf of Papa Putin (hell they couldn’t be convinced to get in this war at all, beyond real estate), so non-state grudge factories is what I am thinking is more likely in this threat.  The whole spin on that Moscow concert thing could be leveraged to prep the ground.

[Général_Hiver]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hey, new guy..welcome.  Could be.  I really doubt Belarus is going to start lobbing cruise missiles at Poland on behalf of Papa Putin (hell they couldn’t be convinced to get in this war at all, beyond real estate), so non-state grudge factories is what I am thinking is more likely in this threat.  The whole spin on that Moscow concert thing could be leveraged to prep the ground.

Ha long time listener, first time caller.

Oh I agree non-state actors are the possible threat here. If we allow that Putin is rational enough not to play nuclear bingo unless the situation is truly existential, that might be one of the few escalation options left to him.

[Harmon Rabb]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

I'm still wondering why they spent the effort and money to get a naval vessel after seeing how pretty much useless they are in this war.  That corvette leaves port she'll be hit by Russian aircraft or subs and if she doesn't leave port... still likely to get sunk.  So basically Ukraine has a ship that shouldn't sail to a Ukrainian port.  I would love to see her interdict Russian tankers, but realistically....

Is she even permitted to transit the Bosporus?  I would assume yes as she would be delivered out of a Turkish shipyard to Ukraine, but then she can't leave the Black sea.

Head scratcher there.

My understanding is that the Hetman Ivan Mazepa was ordered in 2021, before this war started.

I don’t think she will be seeing action during this war.

As impressed as we all are with Ukraine’s use of drones and anti-ship missiles during this war, we can ask the surviving crew of the Moskva for details. The Ukrainian Navy like the other Navy’s in the world will still need some surface combatant ships after this war is finished, because thankfully as it stands Ukraine will still have access to the Black Sea when this war is over.  

The reality is you can’t do everything with drones and anti-ship missiles alone when conducting naval operations.

I imagine Ukraine will spend some resources on building more surface ships when this war is finished, I’m looking forward to watching the Ukrainian Navy rebuild itself after this war along with the rest of AFU.

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Ukrainian vintners in Napa Valley learning to rebuild their wine industry (msn.com)

Very cool, first winery I ever visited in Calif. and still one of my favorites.

Really cool, can't say I have ever tried any Ukrainian wine but that may change in the future.

I have tried Lvivske Lev Bile, really good Ukrainian made beer.

Lvivske Lev Bile (RateBeer)

 

 

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Général_Hiver said:

Ha long time listener, first time caller.

“Can you play Don’t Fear the Reaper?”   Why yes we can:

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Blazing 88's said:

Can I turn off "Recommended" at the top of the page and if so how do I turn it off?

Thanks.

It is a bit overwhelming in size, isn't it?  I am totally unfamiliar with this thing, but if there's any way for you to turn it of it would be in your account settings.  I'll leave it up for a few days and then take it down.  No doubt a hidden history of it being posted will remain so I can easy get us back to that post if need be.

Steve