How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Thank you for mentioning, because I absolutely remember that this was a thing as far back late 2022 (autumn, winter), experimental and as a concept, tried by Ukraine pretty sure, and there was already a discussion about the feasibility of dragging a wire behind a drone and why it's different than a TOW missile.

I know that there is currently one Ukrainian initiative to build drones with glass fibre that is collecting. It seems to have some application in specific use cases.

Fiber is very different to deal with than wire.  And bare fiber is very different than jacketed fiber.  I got called in to fix someone's fiber problem where they were breaking fibers left and right and having spools explode on the shelf.  It was all bare fiber.  I substituted fiber with a decent jacket and after than broke only a single fiber in I think 3 years and that was basically by accidentally doing the equivalent of smashing it into open scissors with a hammer.

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, CHARLIE43 said:

To me, this thread is pointless. Talking about some invention or tactic that will bring the war to an end, when we all know how it ends.

I think this thread is one of the last places where people would claim that a tactical change would decide the whole war. 

Quote

You won't bring Russia to it's knees by ruining their economy. On the contrary.

Strange, why did hundreds of thousands of Russian troops move out of Eastern Europe after 1991?

Quote

Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this?

Now that is a point. The West is woefully behind in terms of hybrid warfare, both in defense and offense.

Russia, China and Iran are currently running circles around us while punching our nuts, respectively ovaries for the ladies, in the hybrid area. 

The West should improve its defenses (e.g. legal consequences for foreign assets, sweeps for saboteurs and information leaks) and improve its offenses (diplomatic offenses to pull non-Western countries into decreasing economic ties with Russia by offering them sexy alternatives, offer support to groups which are in conflict with proxy forces of the RIC Axis, and get some IT nerds to find out how to sell Russia some Israeli pagers).

Quote

Once you bring the population to it's knees, only hatred and resentment remain, leading to more violence and death.

The Germans and the Japanese seem pretty chill since 1945 and boy did the Japanese state approved death cult look like what the Russian regime seems to promote.

Edited September 21 by Carolus

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

To me, this thread is pointless. Talking about some invention or tactic that will bring the war to an end, when we all know how it ends. Tit for tat, lines move back and forth with bodies piling up until finally someone gets a wild hair and then the mushroom clouds start forming. Scary thought, ain't it? Well that's where all this is heading.

You won't bring Russia to it's knees by ruining their economy. On the contrary. All that will do is make no other alternative for the population to take up arms against what has become a deep seeded hatred for those they perceive as responsible for destroying their livelihood. We know it's Putin's aggression towards Ukraine, but from some of the documentaries I've seen there is quite a vacuum as far as information from the outside. People now loath the West. Even if they do manage to hear the truth, there aren't enough of them or they're too oppressed to do anything about it. Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this? We are approaching the point of no return. Once you bring the population to it's knees, only hatred and resentment remain, leading to more violence and death. And we're not talking about a relatively small country in the Middle East, mind you but a nuclear power with more than enough missiles to make life very less comfy for everyone in the crosshairs. Bring Russia to it's knees? Think about what that may lead to and we're both looking for knee pads, guaranteed.

The irony is that we've been through all this before and should known better. Instead we'd been too invested in our own misguided adventures in the the ME and elsewhere. Reinventing the wheel won't solve this conflict. It will just make the wagon roll a bit faster towards the bitter end. So carry on with the conversation if you will. In the end it doesn't really matter much anyways. The next war will be fought with sticks and stones, until someone reinvents the slingshot, etc, ad nauseam.

First of all, welcome.

Second, this is a tactical wargaming forum, primarily composed of longtime (and mainly over 50) wargamers, some of whom have some RL military experience, and a few of whom have rather a lot, for which we are thankful.

So, perhaps manage your expectations within that context. Cheers

****

My generals understand nothing about the economic aspects of the war!

(AH had a point there, although he himself 'knew' even less, or rather, what he 'knew' was bollox)

****

As to the resilience and staying power of the Russian economy, I am reminded of the oft-quoted Hemingway dialogue from 'Sun':

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

Edited September 21 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

On 8/31/2022 at 6:03 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Interesting backstory:

Since his father was one of Tyva’s major party bosses, Sergey Shoygu knew many important people. From 1987 to 1989 Boris Yeltsin held a similar position in the construction committee.

 

In 1991, Mr. Shoygu became the head of the Russian Rescue Corps, which, after a series of reorganizations and name changes, became today’s Ministry for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, internationally abbreviated as EMERCOM.... In the aftermath of the worst disasters, Mr. Shoygu was always sure to be seen managing the recovery efforts.

 

However, EMERCOM’s structure is peculiar in that it is heavily militarized, which prompts many questions. Why does it count over a hundred generals among its staff? ...President Yeltsin was proactive enough to create a trusted, alternate army – a personal guard that would be able to intervene in case of a political “emergency.”

Resurrecting an old post giving source material on Shoigu's background. For all his military ineptitude, he remains one of the top politician-oligarchs in Russia and his alliance with Putin's Petersburg-siloviki gang has been a very fruitful one for all concerned.

Like Putin, he was a handpicked protege of Yeltsin's governing council in the late 90s. His family background/ training is in Siberian oil & gas construction (with the accompanying huge self enrichment opps). He had his own political party, briefly, before throwing in with United Russia.

He is seen as no serious threat to Putin for the top slot given that he's an Asiatic.

Girkin's term 'Plywood marshal' is a racial slur btw, the Russian n-word for Asiatic Siberians is 'churkas' = 'wood chips'

[mosuri]

10 hours ago, billbindc said:

Inter alia, using "guys" to refer to people in general is an obvious tip off. A very American and especially NY/NJ colloquialism that is not going to come up Google translating from Ukrainian or Russian into English. "Yuge85" is either one of our old trolls reskinned or some sad sack demolishing a bag of Московскии Картофел for his hourly fee.

One feels drawing conclusions from a single expression is going out on a bit of a limb.

You guys should know that US and UK media does a great job in spreading a wealth of vernacular expressions around the world. I've lost count how much I've picked up from various sources, although luckily I did start reading English lit at an early age so there's something more solid than only sitcom scripts somewhere down there.

I guess Hill Street Blues and Seinfeld would fall into NY/NJ bucket. Later in life I might have picked up things from US work colleagues. But if we had series taking place in US South on local TV when I was a kid, maybe I'd be talking to all y'all even funnier than I am now.

Anyhow, I don't disagree with the overall conclusion.

[chuckdyke]

Still fascinating how a 'Brom' here communicates effectively with a Pinoy here. People soon build up a rapport. Ukrainians and Russians should be able to do the same if they want to. 

[KoopCL]

3 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

 Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this?

Hello everyone, long time lurker, wanted to drop my 2 cents when it comes to this quote in particular.

 

Two problems with the logic; the first may seem counterintuitive, but Russia's populace at large seems to be rather apathetic to politics in general (which, to be fair, seems to be by design: if your populace in not interested in politics they will not vote you out, or ask too many questions, or worry that all opposition seems to be in jail or exiled; we had a similar phenomenon with Pinochet eroding trust in "politicians" as their own separate class of people, better to leave it to the army, because an apathetic populace is a calmed populace). If suddenly you dedicate all your propaganda efforts to show the average Russian "looks how **** your life is! Looks how it compares to ours! Look how the mafia in charge takes advantage of you!" you may have the unintended consequence of having these people pushed further in denial or towards support for the regime because you force them to ask the very uncomfortable question of "why did we let it go this far? Why did we silently support ourselves being lied to?". Its easier to go further into denial than to admit that your life sucks because you haven't taken the steps to improve it and instead relied on the comfort of familiarity, its the same twisted train of thoughts that happens with conspiracy theorists faced with undeniable evidence that they are nuts, or with victims in abusive relationships. Add how proud of their nation the average Russian seems to be and its a recipe for disaster.

 

The second issue, is that it already happened. Post Yeltsin, arguably until 2022 and for sure until 2014, Russia was part of the world at large same as Poland, or Germany, or China. Russians could (and would, and still do) visit other countries, have expat communities, access to the internet, migrant family members living abroad, visitors and tourists coming to Russia, etc. They don't discredit stuff like "they have political participation!" and "there's opposition parties" and "there's international cooperation" and "everyone has indoor plumbing!" because they think it's a bunch of unbelievable lies; they have been able too see that with their own eyes; putting it as an ad on a hacked Russian TV channel wont do anything to "motivate the populace". There's no point to tell them "if you rebel against Putin, your living standards may reach those of the average German!" when you have a huge community of Russians living in Germany, enjoying their standards of living, and still fervently supporting Putin (if they express an opinion at all). 

 

You know what the West didn't do for all those years that they were "showing his people it shouldn't be like this"? "Play army". And what were the consequences? Putin felt emboldened to go to ever larger and larger military expeditions until the straw broke the camels back.

 

[Holien]

Anyone on here want to take a guess at why the ammunition dumps seemed to fail so badly?

From the satellite images the hardened bunkers seem to be similar to those that we see here in the UK like Greenham Common, Upper Heyford or other such places.

Is it just the Soviet design sucks or is there something else at play?

Ukraine has scored some major hits and the dumps are going up, even the better bunkers?

Would NATO fair better with our dumps? I would hope they have decent design specs?

[Holien]

38 minutes ago, KoopCL said:

its the same twisted train of thoughts that happens with conspiracy theorists faced with undeniable evidence that they are nuts, or with victims in abusive relationships

Great points and you can't just expect a western media campaign to break this, it needs far more than we could ever do.

There is a reason why Russia and China have cut internet access to the world to try and tightly control the messages their citizens see.

I interact with western folk who are subjected to Chinese media and they parrot the lines fed them about Taiwan and Ukraine.

Gilded cages and they are happy in them...

Evil America caused the war in Ukraine...

The role of media cannot be underestimated. 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

People now loath the West. Even if they do manage to hear the truth, there aren't enough of them or they're too oppressed to do anything about it. Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this?

I would say welcome but your opening line on your first post does not really demonstrate the spirit of what this thread is doing. Further your certainty on how things are and need to be is always a bad sign.

So what you are proposing is a Subversive strategy as opposed to the overt Exhaustion and Annihilation strategies being undertaken. Well firstly, these strategies are not exclusive of each other, it is not an “either or” situation. Secondly, we have little idea what the West of Ukraine are doing in Russia along the subversion lines of effort. We know Russia is trying very hard to convince westerners that this war is hopeless and we should just cut bait. But the level of western effort is largely unknown.

A big reason for this is that subversion tends to be under the waterline. A combination of information and influence activities on many levels, it works to find and then exploit the pre-existing fractures in a given target population. Russia is not a socially homogeneous mass - despite the opinions of some. It is a large body of smaller social groupings being held together by a large fictitious idea: The Russian People. Problem is the idea is very old and very powerful. And as we know from history, one of the hardest things to do is kill an idea and insert one a new one.

For all the reasons you demonstrate in your post. People all “know”. In truth they really don’t but they need to believe that they understand the world around them. It needs to make sense. Once it stops making sense really bad and dangerous things happen. Wonderful things can happen as well but history is not generous with the wonderful. So you are proposing taking away what Russians “know” and inserting a new idea generated by the West. Further, as I stated, Russia is a large social complex. So what people “know” and what we want them to “know” will vary widely. This last part is extremely important. Because humans evolved in the middle of a food chain, we are very sensitive to our environment. Not as heightened as those further down, but definitely very cagey and nervous…all the time. So if we make a misstep on tone or message, even just a little bit, the average Russian will sniff it out quickly.

So what? Well now we need the influencers and trusted sources inside Russia to shape and deliver a new message, at micro-social levels….exactly what Russia is trying. That is a major effort and takes a lot of time to put into motion. It is iterative, more of a direct negotiation with individual Russians. And here is the last thing: it might work, it might not, and it might well decide to go in an uncontrollable direction.

So the West is pursuing a containment and squeeze strategy (not manly Rambo) to try and nudge the Russian people into doing a change for themselves. Again, tricky and a lot can go wrong. Direct subversion targeting and effects are one of the hardest things to do well. Not impossible as we know from history it can be done. But to do it well, without making things even worse from our perspective, is extremely hard and risky.

So now I suggest you go to the library and research some of the key words I have dropped. Look into Subversive warfare during the Cold War. And then come back with actual questions and ideas as opposed to naked certainty.

[hcrof]

29 minutes ago, Holien said:

Anyone on here want to take a guess at why the ammunition dumps seemed to fail so badly?

From the satellite images the hardened bunkers seem to be similar to those that we see here in the UK like Greenham Common, Upper Heyford or other such places.

Is it just the Soviet design sucks or is there something else at play?

Ukraine has scored some major hits and the dumps are going up, even the better bunkers?

Would NATO fair better with our dumps? I would hope they have decent design specs?

NATO invests a lot into insensitive munitions, which is one reason they are more expensive than Russian ones (as well as better tolerances for more accuracy). This would help a lot with a Toropets situation. 

Ukraine also waited until an ammunition train was being unloaded so a large number of explosives were totally exposed. 

Finally, Russia also didn't help itself by storing the majority of the munitions on the site in the open air. It is unclear how well revetted they were but the Russians do love taking short cuts...

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Eug85 said:

To be honest, I am tired of your baseless accusations against me for no apparent reason. So from now on I will simply ignore you.

Prost!

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

One feels drawing conclusions from a single expression is going out on a bit of a limb.

You guys should know that US and UK media does a great job in spreading a wealth of vernacular expressions around the world. I've lost count how much I've picked up from various sources, although luckily I did start reading English lit at an early age so there's something more solid than only sitcom scripts somewhere down there.

I guess Hill Street Blues and Seinfeld would fall into NY/NJ bucket. Later in life I might have picked up things from US work colleagues. But if we had series taking place in US South on local TV when I was a kid, maybe I'd be talking to all y'all even funnier than I am now.

Anyhow, I don't disagree with the overall conclusion.

Agree with all of that but his problem is that tradecraft-wise he's a bloody disaster. He said he used Google Translate to bring his prose into English and Google Translate won't pop in the odd colloquialism like that. Just like my insertion of 'bloody' in front of 'disaster' wouldn't happen were I doing the same thing. 

[Carolus]

 

 

My layman opinion is that it seems to be on fire.

[Holien]

The airfield nearby has fields on fire. Let's hope there was collateral damage on the airbase too.

I wonder how many ammunition dumps of this scale Russia has?

Looks like they are going to have to decentralise but that ain't easy to undertake and keep track of.

Stuff can more easily go missing the more locations you use, and you need more transport and staff.

 

[Eug85]

A Ukrainian soldier who used to fight but now serves in the rear due to health reasons was recently sent to work at the military registration and enlistment office. He tells about his impressions of the chaos there and the dominance of the stupid Soviet system. In his latest post, he talks about the Ukrainian government's attempts to introduce the possibility for recruited soldiers to choose their place of service:

friends, do you know why recruiting and all this other newfangled crap of yours won't work normally these days?

and because the higher authorities do not care about all these progressive rogue things so much that they will never even spend time to listen to the essence of the issues.

well, there is no interest in this for them.

What difference does it make to a military commissar, which brigade an ordinary SOLDIER will go to? well, it's not a GENERAL and not even a COLONEL.

you are not mobilized to serve as a SPECIALIST in some cool brigade, but to plug the holes with your help.

If you are healthy and young, you will be sent to the Airborne Assault Troops, or the Marines, whatever brigade.

If you are old, crooked, sick and unhappy - in the newly created motorized infantry brigade.

If you have a higher education and know the American language, you will be sent to one-month courses at the academy to replenish the jacket divisions (reserve officer).

and so on. everything is very simple and all the same.

You should take into account that, by the way, they will still have time to create a few dozen new brigades in order to make more money while the funding is good.

and for the time being, the government is giving money for all this as much as possible due to inertia, because it is quite possible that such luck will soon run out.

therefore, dear friends, calm down and don't get upset.

who are really interested in RECRUITING are brigade commanders.

for another 10-15 years, until all the current generals resign due to their health, bite your lip and relax.

and drop 200 hryvnias each for our fighters:

send.monobank.ua/jar/3Rv1Ettypb

because we will all be there.

but, I must say that in the last few months it has generally become MUCH BETTER.

i.e. the chances of getting where you planned and taking some relation from the brigades became much higher in percentage.

but there is still no guarantee that you will be taken away from school by some broken brigade and there never will be.

[billbindc]

6 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

To me, this thread is pointless. Talking about some invention or tactic that will bring the war to an end, when we all know how it ends. Tit for tat, lines move back and forth with bodies piling up until finally someone gets a wild hair and then the mushroom clouds start forming. Scary thought, ain't it? Well that's where all this is heading.

You won't bring Russia to it's knees by ruining their economy. On the contrary. All that will do is make no other alternative for the population to take up arms against what has become a deep seeded hatred for those they perceive as responsible for destroying their livelihood. We know it's Putin's aggression towards Ukraine, but from some of the documentaries I've seen there is quite a vacuum as far as information from the outside. People now loath the West. Even if they do manage to hear the truth, there aren't enough of them or they're too oppressed to do anything about it. Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this? We are approaching the point of no return. Once you bring the population to it's knees, only hatred and resentment remain, leading to more violence and death. And we're not talking about a relatively small country in the Middle East, mind you but a nuclear power with more than enough missiles to make life very less comfy for everyone in the crosshairs. Bring Russia to it's knees? Think about what that may lead to and we're both looking for knee pads, guaranteed.

The irony is that we've been through all this before and should known better. Instead we'd been too invested in our own misguided adventures in the the ME and elsewhere. Reinventing the wheel won't solve this conflict. It will just make the wagon roll a bit faster towards the bitter end. So carry on with the conversation if you will. In the end it doesn't really matter much anyways. The next war will be fought with sticks and stones, until someone reinvents the slingshot, etc, ad nauseam.

Thanks for weighing in.

I would point out a couple of factual problems with your take.

First, economic warfare has a long and highly effective history of bringing countries to their knees...the previous iteration of the Russian empire (what we used to call "the Sovs" around here) being a very prominent example. It isn't fast, it isn't clean and it's hard to measure as it's happening but the results speak for themselves. Contra the claims of the occasional Putin fanboi around here, things are not going Moscow's way in this arena: https://fortune.com/europe/2024/08/19/an-economic-catastrophe-is-lurking-beneath-russias-gdp-growth-as-putin-throws-everything-into-the-fireplace/

Second, VPN usage and other work arounds are quite common in Russia. Russians, as has been pointed out earlier, are well aware of the world but what they are more attuned to is their feelings of ressentiment and that exact openness to the world is what makes clear the delta between Russian self image and the shabby state of their imperial pretensions. This war isn't happening because Russians are ignorant. It's happening because it is or was popular.  https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/europes-last-empire-putins-ukraine-war-exposes-russias-imperial-identity/

Third, I would strongly suggest that you search this forum for discussions of deterrence. There are some folks on here who have studied the issue in great depth for a very long time. Below is a good rundown of the process of deterrence during this war and well worth the time. Long story short, there are risks of escalation but there is obviously a highly robust US engagement in avoiding things going nuclear that has clearly worked...often to the irritation of Ukrainian officials who believe it handicaps their war efforts. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/nuclear-brinkmanship-in-putins-war-upping-the-ante/

Fourth, I would take great issue with the dismissal of this war as yet another casual misadventure caused at least in part by US involvement in the ME or elsewhere. The origin of and guilt for this war lies squarely in Moscow on the shoulders of Putin, Patrushev, Shoigu, etc. Moscow began this war because revanchism was a seemingly easy way to prop up their regime with a resentful populace and they perceived correctly that the United States was pulling out of other entanglements and reorienting towards peer conflict. When that decision was made, the United States then spent 10 months shoring up Ukrainian defenses, creating a diplomatic consensus to resist it and pressured Russia in every possible way to desist. In short, we screw up a lot but this one just ain't on us (nb: not Google translate).

 

Edited September 21 by billbindc

[FancyCat]

Are these depots guarded by anti-air assets? I’m assuming the answer is yes but it seems concerning that these depots are turning into mini nukes without much fuss? Seemingly? 

[CHARLIE43]

Again, this thread is nothing more than re-posting what is already available via other social and media platforms and then dancing around the fire light... sprinkled with supposed educated guesses as to what is coming next.

It can't be moved to say the General Forum. Doesn't really have much to do with where it's at (CMBS).

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Again, this thread is nothing more than re-posting what is already available via other social and media platforms and then dancing around the fire light... sprinkled with supposed educated guesses as to what is coming next.

It can't be moved to say the General Forum. Doesn't really have much to do with where it's at (CMBS).

Um, that's what all discussions of this war are among the general public.  People looking at available information and discussing and guessing and hypothesizing and talking tactics and strategy and logistics.  You have some greater, more enlightened discussion in mind, clearly.

You have decided that Ukraine should submit to Putin because you are concerned about escalation.  For UKR, it already is in escalation, as they are being facing new mass murders every day.  Perhaps they should just submit.  We know RU has always been nice to UKR, like back in the 1930s.

[Holien]

19 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Doesn't really have much to do with where it's at (CMBS).

ROFL....

Always interesting to read some constructive posts ...

[CHARLIE43]

@danfrodo What you or I think, decide or talk about doesn't matter in the least. It's all talk on a cereal box as far as anyone of any importance is concerned.

BTW, don't put word in my mouth with you, you, and you spiel.

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Again, this thread is nothing more than re-posting what is already available via other social and media platforms and then dancing around the fire light... sprinkled with supposed educated guesses as to what is coming next.

It can't be moved to say the General Forum. Doesn't really have much to do with where it's at (CMBS).

nobody is making you read it if it so offends your sensitive sensibilities.

WTF is it with the new (Mid August) crop of forumites?

Edited Saturday at 03:26 PM by sburke

[LongLeftFlank]

26 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Again, this thread is nothing more than re-posting what is already available via other social and media platforms and then dancing around the fire light... sprinkled with supposed educated guesses as to what is coming next.

It can't be moved to say the General Forum. Doesn't really have much to do with where it's at (CMBS).

Mate, we're mainly a bunch of longtime CM gamers here (overlapped with some defence professionals who put up with our stupidities for reasons best known to themselves). 

What useful purpose would be served by relocating this thread?

Personally, I am happy new people are coming in here to challenge the prevailing echo chamber, but on the other hand you need to have a thick skin and expect a certain amount of Fight Club.

And there are a few Defenders of the Faith here instantly trying to shout down or defame 'defeatists'; I'm afraid that's a side effect of the Western political climate today.

EDIT: oh, hey look, QED....

...Also, we're mostly highly educated cranky old men here, just ask our spouses. See 'grognards'.  So that's what this is.

Anyhoo, assuming you have a good will towards Ukraine (we don't really have time for pro-Russia views here, go find your own echo chamber) but are simply Deeply Worried (I am, for one), it's best to just keep swinging and ignore the heckling, until our Moderator (who has his own biases, sure) gives you the guardrails.

FWIW.

Edited Saturday at 03:26 PM by LongLeftFlank

[CHARLIE43]

@sburke I thought about that but it's always right there.. right in front of me kinda like a moth to a flame type deal.