How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

Shoigu definitely back in play (I was skeptical that Putin purged him; he's too powerful in his own right)

https://eurasianet.org/order-restored-to-iranian-russian-relations-after-geopolitical-row

The article itself is kabuki.

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, fry30 said:

Just one man speaking here, but I'm strangely comfortable with it. 

Right? Personally I'm tired of not doing more.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Just to briefly tip my hat into this whole 'The Russian economy doesn't seem to be collapsing' stuff:
 

To put it simply, while the Russian banks have done a pretty good job of mitigating the damage, its all holding action that is going to get worse and worse over time as they deplete reserves. Think of an old large water filled tank that is creaking with tonnes of flex tape on it. More and more leaks appear with each year and its only a matter of time before the whole thing falls apart. Couple in growing labour shortages and as close to a war economy as you can get (without any lend lease this time!) and the prognosis is not great. 

The fact that more and more economic data is being classified for 'security purposes' should tell you a lot about the confidence of the Russian government and their attempts to limit what their people actually know about its increasingly desperate state.

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Right? Personally I'm tired of not doing more.

Beyond the whole “let’s help em break Russia’s hands and face.” It is simply the right thing to do. Compared to the other blood and treasure messes in the last 30 years, this one actually makes sense.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Beyond the whole “let’s help em break Russia’s hands and face.” It is simply the right thing to do. Compared to the other blood and treasure messes in the last 30 years, this one actually makes sense.

Had a conversation with a smart guy recently who pointed out...they did it to us in Vietnam, we did it to them in Afghanistan, then they did it to us in Afghanistan and now we are returning the favor on a scale unseen in the modern rivalry between the two countries. It's not just right. It's tried and true.

[MikeyD]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Doesn't it seem that RU attacks are more and more and more often just mostly meat?

Well, meat is the logical conclusion to Steve's 'tanks are dead' assertions. You can't bring forward heavy armor because they're too vulnerable. By the same token, you also can't bring forward light armor or soft skin transport or anything on wheels or tracks that's liable to attract unwanted drone attention. So what's left besides penny packets of dispersed foot infantry moving forward as best they can, relying on their own drones and artillery to clear a path for them?

[chrisl]

On 9/18/2024 at 2:20 PM, Butschi said:

So maybe I'm a bit naive here but I imagine that within the context of a breaching operation, mobile mines might be much easier to solve for. I admit I don't know how you defect mines using drones in the first place. But anyway, given you want to keep a fairly limited amount of ground free of mines, like a number of lanes, isn't all you have to actually do keeping a few drones in the air that that monitor these lanes? If you are able to field a thousand drones to clear the lanes you will certainly be able to spare enough to monitor the cleared lanes. Now, while detecting mines may usually be complicated, I imagine detecting moving mines in an area you keep eyes on is much easier, as that should even be doable comparing camera images (instead of specialized sensors). This scenario at least seems much simpler than moving mines that crawl into all the places you can't keep monitoring.

I find two issue with using masses of drones for demining btw:

1. Although individual drones are small, massing thousands of drones, supplies and controlling equipment in a limited area is certain to picked up by an opponent. (Not to mention the force that is actually going to go through the minefield...) So you are kind of back to the problem that massing gets detected and probably stopped early. But maybe it is still easier to disperse?

2. I am convinced AI can do it but we are not really there just yet, I think. So, for now you'd have to coordinate lots of remote controlled drones. That doesn't sound so much fun. Plus, as this happens in a small area, jamming is really effective. 

 

I was reading further along through the thread to see if this came up before I posted.

Yes, it's easier to detect them if they move. You don't even need continuous coverage, so much as repeated coverage and the ability to coregister images.  If you can do continuous coverage it's much easier.  Optical detection of something that's low contrast and at the resolution limit is iffy (though it does seem that in some conditions and some wavelengths, mines have high contrast).  Detecting moving things is *much* easier - you're looking for changes.  You can detect things that are both low contrast and below the Rayleigh resolution limit if they're moving.

Re 1: It's almost certainly easier to make sure enough of your drones survive to clear a lane than it is to make sure your one big heavy metal thing survives.  More advanced drones should be able to do things like come in low, or through coverage, or even come in under cover of smoke.

Re 2: It's not really even AI.  ML can do it, especially if it's moving, but probably also if it's not.  ML might be susceptible to decoys.  Why would you use decoys, when more mines probably cost about the same?  because packing a lot of mines close together risks having one blow up its neighbors.  But it you have a lot of things that look like mines to the swarm, but only some are real mines, it makes it more expensive or slower or both for the breacher to clear the lane.

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Well, meat is the logical conclusion to Steve's 'tanks are dead' assertions. You can't bring forward heavy armor because they're too vulnerable. By the same token, you also can't bring forward light armor or soft skin transport or anything on wheels or tracks that's liable to attract unwanted drone attention. So what's left besides penny packets of dispersed foot infantry moving forward as best they can, relying on their own drones and artillery to clear a path for them?

Good point.  Lack of armor could be to preserve it, or because it aint there.  RU hasn't been very good about preserving, so I think it's a shortage.  But you might be right.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Just to briefly tip my hat into this whole 'The Russian economy doesn't seem to be collapsing' stuff:
 

To put it simply, while the Russian banks have done a pretty good job of mitigating the damage, its all holding action that is going to get worse and worse over time as they deplete reserves. Think of an old large water filled tank that is creaking with tonnes of flex tape on it. More and more leaks appear with each year and its only a matter of time before the whole thing falls apart. Couple in growing labour shortages and as close to a war economy as you can get (without any lend lease this time!) and the prognosis is not great. 

The fact that more and more economic data is being classified for 'security purposes' should tell you a lot about the confidence of the Russian government and their attempts to limit what their people actually know about its increasingly desperate state.

"tis but a fleshwound!"  

[sburke]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Just to briefly tip my hat into this whole 'The Russian economy doesn't seem to be collapsing' stuff:
 

To put it simply, while the Russian banks have done a pretty good job of mitigating the damage, its all holding action that is going to get worse and worse over time as they deplete reserves. Think of an old large water filled tank that is creaking with tonnes of flex tape on it. More and more leaks appear with each year and its only a matter of time before the whole thing falls apart. Couple in growing labour shortages and as close to a war economy as you can get (without any lend lease this time!) and the prognosis is not great. 

The fact that more and more economic data is being classified for 'security purposes' should tell you a lot about the confidence of the Russian government and their attempts to limit what their people actually know about its increasingly desperate state.

@Kraft recently posted a very good article on the Russian economy with a particular focus on how certain aspects have been manipulated, particularly the National Welfare Fund.  Rather than Russia being "just fine" it describes essentially a house of cards that may come due soon.  The full article is well worth a read.

Quote

 

To understand this, we need to look at the composition of the National Welfare Fund. It’s actually made up of a multitude of assets and securitized investments, investment accounts, and other bond investments. But 90 percent of its “face value” is actually based on two asset classes: shares in Russian companies and cash (gold and currency reserves). Of all the assets in the National Welfare Fund, only the cash can actually be used to bail out the state budget and finance the war. And this cash is evaporating.

On Jan. 1, 2022, the National Welfare Fund’s total assets stood at 13.565 trillion rubles, then 10.434 trillion on Jan. 1, 2023, and 11.965 trillion on Jan. 1, 2024. Apparently the fund’s face value moves very little, and after a drop in 2022, it finally went up again in 2023. Except that the amount shown for these reserves is fudged, especially if we look at the amount of liquid assets: 8.432 trillion rubles in 2022, 6.132 trillion in 2023, and 5.011 trillion in 2024. Russia has gone from $113 billion in reserves to $56 billion in two years (taking exchange rates into account). A year ago, the National Welfare Fund still held 10 billion euros, 310 billion yuan, and 554 metric tons of gold. By Jan. 1, 2024, there were no euros left (nor any hard currencies), 227 billion yuan, and 358 metric tons of gold.

By means of an accounting sleight of hand, Russia is disguising the fall in liquidity by adding shares in Russian companies in which the state has a stake. Between January 2022 and August 2023, the share of shares in Russian companies in the National Welfare Fund rose from 26 percent to 33 percent, while its face value remained more or less unchanged. By January 2024, this share had risen to 38 percent. Not only are these assets illiquid, but their real value is totally unverifiable and probably greatly overestimated: It’s hard to imagine, for example, that Aeroflot’s valuation hasn’t changed since 2021, which is what the National Welfare Fund accounts suggest.

 

Russia Is on a Slow Path to Bankruptcy, But How Slow? - War on the Rocks

 

 

Edited September 21 by sburke

[sburke]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Shoigu definitely back in play (I was skeptical that Putin purged him; he's too powerful in his own right)

https://eurasianet.org/order-restored-to-iranian-russian-relations-after-geopolitical-row

The article itself is kabuki.

sure he isn't asking for asylum?

[ArmouredTopHat]

Third ammo depot hit in as many days.

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

It's not really even AI.  ML can do it,

Alas, trying to make that distinction is a battle that was lost a long time ago, I'm afraid. I guess you mean something that's not Deep Learning, Neural Networks, etc.? "Classical" ML is the term I'd use in that case. Anyway, I was referring to autonomous vs remote controlled by a human. Should have phrased that more precisely. Maybe you can do that with classical ML stuff but its way easier to do with AI. Or: Hybrid, everyone's darling these days if you want a layer that you can actually really control.

[Fenris]

23 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Third ammo depot hit in as many days.

Wow.  I took the firms link I posted for the last one and just zoomed out a bit, sure enough, there's  another big fire to the south of the town.

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@31.68,56.43,12.64z

 

 

Edited September 21 by Fenris

[Butschi]

7 hours ago, Eug85 said:

So you want to say that your society is not at all tired of the constant support of the Ukrainian economy?

You are definitely trolling.

Here's what I said:

Quote

Well, I do challenge your claim that Western society as a whole (as compared to factions within some Western societies) are tired of the war.

Come back when you want a discussion for grown ups.

[Eug85]

On 9/13/2024 at 8:32 PM, Butschi said:

Can we just be done with all this preaching, virtue signaling, the whole holier than thou attitude, and this "if you are not for me you are against me" stuff? Your country has not declared war against Russia, yet? Put your face into the dirt and apologize on behalf your whole country!

Last time I looked, the purpose of this thread was to discuss the war and not ensuring everyone knows that we 105% support Ukraine and despise Russia.

Why did I ask again? Because it seemed strange to me that you claim that you are not tired of helping Ukraine at all, although just recently you scolded me for calling for help to Ukraine. And I found your post about it

[Eug85]

6 hours ago, billbindc said:

Inter alia, using "guys" to refer to people in general is an obvious tip off. A very American and especially NY/NJ colloquialism that is not going to come up Google translating from Ukrainian or Russian into English. "Yuge85" is either one of our old trolls reskinned or some sad sack demolishing a bag of Московскии Картофел for his hourly fee.

To be honest, I am tired of your baseless accusations against me for no apparent reason. So from now on I will simply ignore you.

[CHARLIE43]

To me, this thread is pointless. Talking about some invention or tactic that will bring the war to an end, when we all know how it ends. Tit for tat, lines move back and forth with bodies piling up until finally someone gets a wild hair and then the mushroom clouds start forming. Scary thought, ain't it? Well that's where all this is heading.

You won't bring Russia to it's knees by ruining their economy. On the contrary. All that will do is make no other alternative for the population to take up arms against what has become a deep seeded hatred for those they perceive as responsible for destroying their livelihood. We know it's Putin's aggression towards Ukraine, but from some of the documentaries I've seen there is quite a vacuum as far as information from the outside. People now loath the West. Even if they do manage to hear the truth, there aren't enough of them or they're too oppressed to do anything about it. Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this? We are approaching the point of no return. Once you bring the population to it's knees, only hatred and resentment remain, leading to more violence and death. And we're not talking about a relatively small country in the Middle East, mind you but a nuclear power with more than enough missiles to make life very less comfy for everyone in the crosshairs. Bring Russia to it's knees? Think about what that may lead to and we're both looking for knee pads, guaranteed.

The irony is that we've been through all this before and should known better. Instead we'd been too invested in our own misguided adventures in the the ME and elsewhere. Reinventing the wheel won't solve this conflict. It will just make the wagon roll a bit faster towards the bitter end. So carry on with the conversation if you will. In the end it doesn't really matter much anyways. The next war will be fought with sticks and stones, until someone reinvents the slingshot, etc, ad nauseam.

[sburke]

38 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

when we all know how it ends.

really?  I didn't think I knew that.  wait a moment, let me check.  Nope, sorry I don't know how it ends.

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, fry30 said:

Just one man speaking here, but I'm strangely comfortable with it. 

As are most people, now you mention it. I seldom speak to people who don't see the necessity to enable Ukraine to kill as many Russians as possible.

[Aragorn2002]

45 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia?

 

Yeah! Let's finally give Ukraine permission to use everything they have to hit all Russian targets they can reach.

[chrisl]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

really?  dang that I didn't expect.  I figured you'd post something.  At least show that there were in fact tweets.  Now we have to accept your word that not only is someone talking about but that soon everyone will be talking about, but not actually anything to show anyone talking about.  Don't get me wrong, they might very well have them, but it still doesn't answer the question as to whether that is really a technology leap for the reasons I noted which you didn't answer.

So do you think it is a good idea to fly a drone with a cable behind it trailing back to the operator?  Accepting the weight suggestion from Artkin, do you think it is a good idea to have a trailing cable liable to get snagged along the way if one has to go any distance.  Here is a physical concern - the best terrain for deployment is also the terrain most likely to reveal the trailing cable.

The Haitians in Springfield OH are on everyone's lips too.  Way more than Russia fiber connected drones and yet....

I checked the date on the article and it's early Aug, but I swear I saw that picture of the fishing reel full of fiber 1000 pages ago.

Bare fiber is amazingly strong until it's not.  Try to break it by bending with your fingers in a really clean environment?  Super resilient.  Scratch it and then bend it? sproing, now you have two pieces.  Get it wet or put it in a high humidity environment and scratch it across some rocks?  Now you have a bunch of pieces.  Leave a spool of it on the shelf in a humid environment too long?  Sproing, you have a fiber wig.  

[chrisl]

11 hours ago, Eug85 said:

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3866

https://t.me/serhii_flash/3874

Found another post by Sergey Flash showing the ingenuity of the Russians. He reports that one of the Ukrainian units was attacked by FPV drones 40 kilometers from the front line. The drones were taken out by a drone mother, which delivered the drones deep into the Ukrainian rear, conducted video surveillance of the attack and served as a repeater of control signals and video. Now the Ukrainians have one more problem. FPV drones are now capable of causing trouble far behind the front line.

When I look up the part number of the second link it gives me "Flexible steel tube armoured optical fiber cables".  That's not gonna be 150 grams/km.  It didn't give mass specs, but looking up other armored fiber optic, it's going to be more like 1.5-1.75 kg/km for a single fiber in an 0.5 mm stainless tube (what it looks like that P/N is).  And it's going to be a lot larger spool and a lot stiffer cable to feed out.  

So I'm skeptical that they're anywhere near 10 km with fiber tethered drones in a real environment.

 

[Carolus]

20 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I checked the date on the article and it's early Aug, but I swear I saw that picture of the fishing reel full of fiber 1000 pages ago.

Thank you for mentioning, because I absolutely remember that this was a thing as far back late 2022 (autumn, winter), experimental and as a concept, tried by Ukraine pretty sure, and there was already a discussion about the feasibility of dragging a wire behind a drone and why it's different than a TOW missile.

I know that there is currently one Ukrainian initiative to build drones with glass fibre that is collecting. It seems to have some application in specific use cases.

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

Alas, trying to make that distinction is a battle that was lost a long time ago, I'm afraid. I guess you mean something that's not Deep Learning, Neural Networks, etc.? "Classical" ML is the term I'd use in that case. Anyway, I was referring to autonomous vs remote controlled by a human. Should have phrased that more precisely. Maybe you can do that with classical ML stuff but its way easier to do with AI. Or: Hybrid, everyone's darling these days if you want a layer that you can actually really control.

I'm distinguishing them by ML being something where I can use a lightweight algorithm for the tracking, even if it takes a lot of training. I also live in a world where ML is expected to be explainable.  Deterministic(-ish) once trained. I already do similar tracking with ML.

AI is a bucket of mystery that sucks energy and looks impressive on some problems and falls hard on its face on similar problems that aren't easily distinguished from the ones it can do.