How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-blame-game-ukraine-war-special-military-operation/

Russian blame game heats up as Ukraine’s special military operation riles Putin

Local authorities admit Kyiv’s forces now control dozens of settlements inside Russia.

 

 

[dan/california]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

14 hours ago, MikeyD said:

As to Russia doing a general mobilization, don't discount practical issues - Russia's inability to properly clothe, house, feed, or arm a substantial influx of new soldiers. In theory Putin could call up a two million man army but what are they going to eat and what are they going to wear for boots?

Well China certainly *can* provide all those basics. I can't 'prove' they are, but I certainly wouldn't assume they aren't (or that Western sanctions have much impact on their decisions).

The world we all live in right now is that the only way the Chinese can dig themselves out of their 20 year building binge (empty hi rise cities are just the tip of that iceberg) is by putting their massive industrial overcapacity to work, selling whatever to whomever, for whatever price moves product and keeps underutilised proletarians off Zhi's streets.

Anecdata: my industry is arse deep in cut rate Chinese solar panels being dumped on the markets so cheaply right now that people are using them as ersatz fencing. Yay planet, I guess....

I am telling friends to hold off buying cars if they can for a couple of years; even where BYDs etc. are banned or tariffed, the supply chain scale benefits are already flowing through to all makers.

[kraze]

^ On topic of that crazy imperialistic "gatherer" thing. Coincidentally there is this video.
I think it really gives you a glimpse into the true schizophrenia that is going on there and may explain quite a lot. 
 

russian-orc eugenics program in Mordor. Jesus F Christ, man.

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Unless of course the UA has a rabbit in its hate somewhere to unleash down south once the RA has to re-set its lines.  I am still hoping for a shaping operation followed by a true breakthrough but not sure if the UA has the gas in the tank to pull it off.

Hey! They read my post at the top of the previous page!

Edited August 12 by NamEndedAllen

[sburke]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Unless of course the UA has a rabbit in its hate somewhere to unleash down south once the RA has to re-set its lines.  I am still hoping for a shaping operation followed by a true breakthrough but not sure if the UA has the gas in the tank to pull it off.

At this point I don't think they even need a real breakthrough.  Even a small attack can force the RA to react.  A couple pinpricks here and there could have Russia seriously guessing about a possible secondary offensive, keep them on the back foot trying to figure out where they should be committing resources.

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

At this point I don't think they even need a real breakthrough.  Even a small attack can force the RA to react.  A couple pinpricks here and there could have Russia seriously guessing about a possible secondary offensive, keep them on the back foot trying to figure out where they should be committing resources.

Problem here is that a UA concentration will be high ISR profile.  Even degraded there are indicators that RA ISR would still be able to pick up a major build up - god help us if China has re-tasked birds in support of all this.

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Problem here is that a UA concentration will be high ISR profile.  Even degraded there are indicators that RA ISR would still be able to pick up a major build up - god help us if China has re-tasked birds in support of all this.

Then fake a concentration just long enough to get their attention, then disperse.  Russia seems to have some real issues right now with their ISR.  Take advantage of that and confuse them as to where they need to allocate enough resources to verify UA intentions.  We know they want/need to concentrate recon to figure out what the UA is doing in Kursk.  Unless we feel they have unlimited ISR resources (which I know we don't) then make it hard for them to decide how much to commit where.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1eqbbz0/the_flag_of_ukraine_flys_on_the_kinburn_spit/

Pretty much what it says, although they don't say much about how long it stayed up. Still, clearly Ukraine is at least investing some riverine special forces to be annoying at the absolute far end of the line of contact. 

 

[FancyCat]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Problem here is that a UA concentration will be high ISR profile.  Even degraded there are indicators that RA ISR would still be able to pick up a major build up - god help us if China has re-tasked birds in support of all this.

did they realize the Kursk buildup? random Russian bloggers dont count, not really. reporters have gotten quotes from Ukrainian soldiers that the Russian defenders were caught off guard. 

Quote

Ukrainian VAB armored personnel carrier and HX81 tank transporter during the ongoing Kursk operation. #UkrainianArmy #RussiaUkraineWar

 

Edited August 12 by FancyCat

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/11/world/europe/ukraine-summer-camps-war.html

The Summer Camps of Ukraine’s Forests: Hikes, First Aid and Military Readiness

As the once carefree summers of Ukrainian childhood and young adulthood are forever altered by war, traditional camps have taken on a more patriotic tone.

 

Ukraines transformation into a bigger Israel is proceeding apace.

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

did they realize the Kursk buildup? random Russian bloggers dont count, not really. reporters have gotten quotes from Ukrainian soldiers that the Russian defenders were caught off guard. 

 

Well we really do not know.  If random Russian bloggers knew then it is not crazy to think the RA proper knew.  Knowing and doing something about it are two different things.  The same story on the Kharkiv build up - the UA likely knew but really were not in a position to do anything about it.

A mech bde that close to the border does not need fancy ISR, good old fashion HUMINT could pick it up.  People with cellphones are probably one of the most effective sensors in this war.  

So before we declare complete freedom of movement for the UA, lets just wait and see how this thing really went down.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Then fake a concentration just long enough to get their attention, then disperse.  Russia seems to have some real issues right now with their ISR.  Take advantage of that and confuse them as to where they need to allocate enough resources to verify UA intentions.  We know they want/need to concentrate recon to figure out what the UA is doing in Kursk.  Unless we feel they have unlimited ISR resources (which I know we don't) then make it hard for them to decide how much to commit where.

Now this is a much better idea.  It may be easier to create confusion on intent and do three separated build ups but only really mean one. We really have no idea on the state of RA ISR at the moment, they seem to be reacting to this incursion pretty quickly, if haphazardly.

I will tell you who did have hi resolution ISR in Kursk...the UA.  They likely knew exactly where the RA was and in what strength before they crossed the border.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

^ On topic of that crazy imperialistic "gatherer" thing. Coincidentally there is this video.
I think it really gives you a glimpse into the true schizophrenia that is going on there and may explain quite a lot. 
 

russian-orc eugenics program in Mordor. Jesus F Christ, man.

Gold. Almost a pitty AI will soon push this style of cheap book cover graphic makers out of the job. They may find a new ones in Storm-Z I guess. Btw. "Warlocracy" channel on YT has similar content regarding  '90-2010s Russian gaming industry, which was also full of shovinistic nationalist game devs with spark of authentic creativity.

Puting lolz aside though, this budget propaganda slowly and surely builded stage for very real tragedy we see.

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well we really do not know.  If random Russian bloggers knew then it is not crazy to think the RA proper knew.  Knowing and doing something about it are two different things.  The same story on the Kharkiv build up - the UA likely knew but really were not in a position to do anything about it.

A mech bde that close to the border does not need fancy ISR, good old fashion HUMINT could pick it up.  People with cellphones are probably one of the most effective sensors in this war.  

So before we declare complete freedom of movement for the UA, lets just wait and see how this thing really went down.

I suspect the same thing.  Let's walk through this with a Russian mindset.

Some low level ISR detects Ukrainian buildup and passes up the chain of command.  The first bunch of times it probably goes nowhere, because passing along bad news is not appreciated and so the commanders would either have to be a) brave or b) very certain that there's something real happening.  Oh, and they would have to care.  That's a bunch of things that Russian commanders have lacked.

So I think we can presume that the information stayed at a fairly low level for a while because each layer it got up to would be just as reluctant to pass it along.

Now, let's think about what each level could do with that information.  Because the border area was starved for resources, at a minimum it would have to go up to the equivalent of a Military District level to even hope of getting some resources moved around.  That's high up.  But really, it would need to go right up to the very top because even the Military Districts are fully committed.

We are now talking about the information having to successfully, and accurately, get to the MoD level.  Once there, it would have to be treated seriously and have realistic (sober) assessments about the risks it posed to that sector of front.  Anybody here want to point to a time and place in this war where the Russian MoD has made good, solid, timely decisions?  I can't think of any.

OK, now let's just give the Russian MoD some benefit of the doubt that the recognized, with time to spare, the threat this buildup posed.  Then what?  It's obvious they have no spare reserves of any value to commit, which means they would have to disengage units PROACTIVELY from within Ukraine and put them into Kursk.  Those actions would definitely harm operations in Ukraine even if the buildup was just a bluff.

Go with more benefit of the doubt and say that the MoD not only recognized the threat, but drew up a proposal to neuter Donbas ops in order to proactively deal with the situation.  Guess what happens next?  Putin has to sign off on it.  Anybody thinking Putin would be onboard with that?  Can anybody think of even one instance where Putin has fully and totally done something to improve the military situation proactively on pure speculation?  I can't think of anything.  Evacuating the north and abandoning Kherson were done only after it was obvious that it should already have happened.

 

In conclusion... I'm sure the Russians knew and I'm sure they decided to roll the dice because anything else would have certainly cost them offensive initiative in the Donbas.

Steve

[MikeyD]

I'm reminded of the war's start. A leaked comment out of the FSB said regular accurate intel reports were written about Ukrainian capabilities but the reports would get rewritten by their superiors before submitting to tell Putin only what he wanted to hear. The 'DON'T BLAME US' leak was promptly followed by a purge of the FSB.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I suspect the same thing.  Let's walk through this with a Russian mindset.

Some low level ISR detects Ukrainian buildup and passes up the chain of command.  The first bunch of times it probably goes nowhere, because passing along bad news is not appreciated and so the commanders would either have to be a) brave or b) very certain that there's something real happening.  Oh, and they would have to care.  That's a bunch of things that Russian commanders have lacked.

So I think we can presume that the information stayed at a fairly low level for a while because each layer it got up to would be just as reluctant to pass it along.

Now, let's think about what each level could do with that information.  Because the border area was starved for resources, at a minimum it would have to go up to the equivalent of a Military District level to even hope of getting some resources moved around.  That's high up.  But really, it would need to go right up to the very top because even the Military Districts are fully committed.

We are now talking about the information having to successfully, and accurately, get to the MoD level.  Once there, it would have to be treated seriously and have realistic (sober) assessments about the risks it posed to that sector of front.  Anybody here want to point to a time and place in this war where the Russian MoD has made good, solid, timely decisions?  I can't think of any.

OK, now let's just give the Russian MoD some benefit of the doubt that the recognized, with time to spare, the threat this buildup posed.  Then what?  It's obvious they have no spare reserves of any value to commit, which means they would have to disengage units PROACTIVELY from within Ukraine and put them into Kursk.  Those actions would definitely harm operations in Ukraine even if the buildup was just a bluff.

Go with more benefit of the doubt and say that the MoD not only recognized the threat, but drew up a proposal to neuter Donbas ops in order to proactively deal with the situation.  Guess what happens next?  Putin has to sign off on it.  Anybody thinking Putin would be onboard with that?  Can anybody think of even one instance where Putin has fully and totally done something to improve the military situation proactively on pure speculation?  I can't think of anything.  Evacuating the north and abandoning Kherson were done only after it was obvious that it should already have happened.

 

In conclusion... I'm sure the Russians knew and I'm sure they decided to roll the dice because anything else would have certainly cost them offensive initiative in the Donbas.

Steve

Exactly.  Add a "cover your @ss" culture and the bad news of a build up might have not even made it to the top as lower level commanders tried to rationalize as "Ukrainian feint".  An illuminated battlefield does not mean that human error has suddenly stopped.  In reality this was a sector 250kms away from the real front, the RA was risk managing it to an extreme extent.  To the point that no one wanted to see real trouble.  That bled into to the decision making process and whoopsie.

It would be extremely reckless to assume that everywhere else on the front line the RA is suddenly blind.  At least without a lot more data. 

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Gold. Almost a pitty AI will soon push this style of cheap book cover graphic makers out of the job. They may find a new ones in Storm-Z I guess. Btw. "Warlocracy" channel on YT has similar content regarding  '90-2010s Russian gaming industry, which was also full of shovinistic nationalist game devs with spark of authentic creativity.

Puting lolz aside though, this budget propaganda slowly and surely builded stage for very real tragedy we see.

Yesh, even I was a bit surprised by this.  Not that it exists, or even how it is everywhere, but that I've not heard about it specifically until now.

Steve

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yesh, even I was a bit surprised by this.  Not that it exists, or even how it is everywhere, but that I've not heard about it specifically until now.

Steve

Heavily basing on Sumlenny's famous thread. Western Audience may also be not familiar with entire, state-sponsored movie propaanda produced in Russia that brings similar effects. It's much less colourful than those para-books but has likely larger impact on muscovite psyche.

 

Interesting thread about Russian command structure in resposne to Ukrainian actions.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1823058780537733306.html

Worth to note: news are that Alieksey Diumin was put in charge of counterattack. Probably one of most talented muscovite commanders, he may face problems if not succeed fast enough.

[Hapless]

Don't have to read this right now, but looks promising.
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War_final.pdf

 

[Centurian52]

28 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Don't have to read this right now, but looks promising.
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Ukraine and the Problem of Restoring Maneuver in Contemporary War_final.pdf

 

That does look good! I'll have to carve out some time to read it. ISW has consistently done a good job both in their daily reports on this war and in their special reports.

I've already taken a look at the first paragraph, and I have to say that I've made the comparison between this war and the Spanish Civil War as well. I noted that the Spanish Civil War was also a largely static war, that may have confirmed to some people the lesson from WW1 that maneuver was dead. In fact I've noticed that quite a lot of wars before, since, and during WW2 were largely static wars (the Winter War and Korea come to mind). I no longer think there was an age of static warfare following WW1, which gave way to an age of maneuver warfare following WW2 (which many people seem to think is now giving way to a new age of static warfare). I think the pattern since WW1 has been a mix of static and maneuver warfare.

Edit: I should add that I think that static warfare may be the default, with maneuver only prevailing where the conditions are just right 

Edited August 12 by Centurian52

[Général_Hiver]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Exactly.  Add a "cover your @ss" culture and the bad news of a build up might have not even made it to the top as lower level commanders tried to rationalize as "Ukrainian feint".  An illuminated battlefield does not mean that human error has suddenly stopped.  In reality this was a sector 250kms away from the real front, the RA was risk managing it to an extreme extent.  To the point that no one wanted to see real trouble.  That bled into to the decision making process and whoopsie.

 

Elements of Fall Blau. The entire operational plan literally fell into the Soviet's laps, but it got ignored because it was inconvenient.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Général_Hiver said:

Elements of Fall Blau. The entire operational plan literally fell into the Soviet's laps, but it got ignored because it was inconvenient.

That was the same with Barbarossa.  The Soviets even knew what day it was supposed to start, but Stalin would hear none of it.  Fortunately, for the Soviets anyway, there had at least been some theoretical work done and partially implemented realistic plan to deal with a Nazi invasion.  It barely worked, but barely is often good enough.

Steve

[Sojourner]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I suspect the same thing.  Let's walk through this with a Russian mindset.

Some low level ISR detects Ukrainian buildup and passes up the chain of command. 

While it's easy (and fun) to blame Russian incompetence, why not applaud Ukrainian brilliance?

Maybe you missed this post from a few days ago...

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Worth to note: news are that Alieksey Diumin was put in charge of counterattack. Probably one of most talented muscovite commanders, he may face problems if not succeed fast enough.

A promising commander put in charge of a crisis, not given the resources he needs to succeed BUT given the expectations of success, could be a good thing for Ukraine long term if he fails in the eyes of Putin.  Blame has to go somewhere and the Kremlin will push it outward instead of looking inward.

Steve