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55 minutes ago, Bufo said:

No, Ukraine didn't declare war with Russia, Russia attacked Ukraine without a declaration of war.

Let's imagine that Germany attacks Poland, but Polish ambassador stays in Berlin, German in Warsaw. Polish business sell goods to Germany, German to Poland. Germans try to sell military supplies, but have to cancel only because of public opinion. 

"Hybrid war" is comfortable for both sides. Soldiers fight and die for real, governments and business pretend to. 

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1 hour ago, DMS said:

Shoigu finished exercises, units go back to bases. Cold war didn't go hot this time.

I was thinking about if I should keep responding because I cannot avoid to feel that I am giving the impression that I fully believe that war is inminent and that I desire such a war, when that is not really the case. I whish you are right DMS, however...

From what I am reading only the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, 41st Army of the Central Military District, the 7th, 76th and 98th Airborne Divisions will return to their bases.That amounts to around 10.000 personel from what I see. Also Shoigu only said that personel (личный состав was his words) is going back, meaning that tanks and other heavy equipment will remain at the border at the ready. And getting troops for that prepositioned equipment could be achived in hours.

Also, a lot of the movement that we saw in those days was actually a repositioning of such units. For example, the 56th Airborne brigade has been permanently redeployed to Crimea, and the Units south of Voronexh will remain there supposedly for Zapad 21.

It definitively can be considered a good sign, but until all units deployed to the border have dispersed and the bellicose rethoric dies down, I still think is to early to be safe. We still have to see what happens with todays meeting with Lukashenk and Putin, and with the Forum "Unity for Russians" that last until tomorrow.

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22 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

I find hard to believe that you guys have no strategic capacity of retaliation against a Russian incursion. I said the air force and ballistic missiles as and example, but you also have to take into account the Ukranian navy, antiship missiles, radar installations, long range artillery and just plain army concentrations (and more things that i cannot think right now, i am sure ) could be severe threats to the russian forces, that would need to be dealt with. Do you really think that your army would not try to stop a russian incursion and just accept the territory loss? I am not being sarcastic here by the way, i am geniunly curios for your opinion.

Of course, General Staff has different plans of reaction. Of course, troops ready to fight, many of those, who fought in 2014-15 and now mostly retired ready to fight again. But all depends from the will of politics. And especially the President's will. Alas, both Poroshenko and much more Zelenskyi - they are not "warriors". They are both prefer evade the fight, because believe the agressor can be stopped by 1000 "round tables" and tons of papers. Europe demands from us the same - the way of compromises and apeasement. Putin just loughs and feels own impunity.

Ukrainian navy doesn't exist now as a combat-value force. Our Maritime border guard is stronger now, than this "navy".

Antiship missiles... We haven't its. New "Neptun"? But first battalion will be deployed only in 2022. Now we have half-battery of pre-serial specimen for personnel training. And this system is still too raw. Also this system depends from satellite targeting, which USA shares for us. Own radar is still in tests.

22 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

Ukraine is dependant in Russian gas

Already no. We buy Russian gas in Europe, also partillay in Norway and there were several test liquified gas supplies through the Poland. But our economy still sensitive because of values of Russian gas transit to Europe. Also, as I said, NS-2 launch will create the threaten to national security.  

Edited by Haiduk
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20 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

I was thinking about if I should keep responding because I cannot avoid to feel that I am giving the impression that I fully believe that war is inminent and that I desire such a war, when that is not really the case. I whish you are right DMS, however...

From what I am reading only the 58th Army of the Southern Military District, 41st Army of the Central Military District, the 7th, 76th and 98th Airborne Divisions will return to their bases. That amounts to around 10.000 personel from what I see. Also Shoigu only said that personel (личный состав was his words) is going back, meaning that tanks and other heavy equipment will remain at the border at the ready. And getting troops for that prepositioned equipment could be achived in hours.

Also, a lot of the movement that we saw in those days was actually a repositioning of such units. For example, the 56th Airborne brigade has been permanently redeployed to Crimea, and the Units south of Voronexh will remain there supposedly for Zapad 21.

It definitively can be considered a good sign, but until all units deployed to the border have dispersed and the bellicose rethoric dies down, I still think is to early to be safe. We still have to see what happens with todays meeting with Lukashenk and Putin, and with the Forum "Unity for Russians" that last until tomorrow.

Very interesting. Source?

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I'm hearing much of the current situation comes down to resources-specifically water. Water usage has been rationed to 3 hours 2 times in parts of the Crimea a day and recently has been cut back more.

Russia is accusing Ukraine of holding back water flow to parts of the country.

 

Edited by db_zero
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A lot going on over the last couple months.  US pressure on NordStream, Czech republic accusations and canceling any Russian participation on Nuclear program that cost billions, a more aggressive stance from US and reconnecting with NATO. Continued sanctions.

Honestly not sure what Russia hoped to accomplish with the buildup, maybe just letting the West know that there was still a threat.  However it is pretty much the only bargaining chip Russia has and is a double edged sword in that it just upped NATO's anxiety and played into the US position about Nordstream.

As to water flow, well that is a problem Russia created in seizing Crimea.    Could Russia force it's way to create a land bridge to Crimea.  Almost certainly.  Would the cost be worth it?  Almost certainly not.

Personally I think Putin has way overplayed his hand and is now in a pretty unenviable position.  He's really back in the same geopolitical position of needing China's support as an ally and the weaker partner in that alliance.

Edited by sburke
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  • 2 weeks later...

Just an example of separs position, May 2021, filmed by hi-speed DJI drone on low-alttude flight. Civil drones of high-end segment very useful in UKR army. Military UAVs often uses in artillery, but infantry recon units, mortar batteries etc prefer to use civil drones, because there is no need to give special access to flights through bereaucratic procedures. 

 

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Just now, Lethaface said:

Where you thinking of joining the separatists? 🤣

Hahaha no but it's very clear warfare is changing SO quickly. My desired place of work in in SOCOM.. and for sure they would be playing with these toys and being hit by these toys..

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7 hours ago, Artkin said:

I found myself asking the same. I'd imagine it's something treaty-breaking 

Russia has not joined the Mine Ban Treaty.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Kraft said:

What are the green devices the film zoomed in on? Looks like some sort of Mine launcher

Yes, this is it. But probably some sort of local "hand-made". I couldn't find something similar of Soviet or Russian. It is for POM-2 mines set. Last two years the enemy especially widely uses this weapon. This mine can be set only remotely with several types of launchers or even with RPG-7 (local invention). When POM-2 activetes, it throws four thin 8-10 m wires with sensors. If somebody hooks on this wire it tears easily and caused explosion with 10 m round zone of complete hit. POM-2 have modifications with self-destruction 4-100 hours or w/o self-destruction. 

It is dangerous weapon, which can, for example, being launched during enemy advance to compel attackers to stop. It also hinders a movement between platoon strongpoints. Also can be used as a bait for snipers - two months ago enemy set several POM-2 mines near our positions, when our sapper group arrived to destroy it, they were shot out by snipers - three were killed, two wounded.

  

pom-2-08.jpg

Edited by Haiduk
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Posted (edited)

USCG Cutter Hamilton visited Odesa. Before this, 8th of May the cutter provided some exircises with Ukranian Maritime Border Guard ship "Grygoryi Kuropyatnykov". During maneuvers, two Russian FSB Coast Guard ships "Provornyi" and "Bezuprechnyi" (pr.22460 "Okhotnik") and BSF corvette "Pavel Derzhavin" (pr.22160, armed with cruise missiles) have appeared. Initially they just escorted on distancem, but further several times closed to them and dangerously crossed their cource. Russians transmitted information as if this area is closed (this happened in Ukrainian exclusive economical zone southern Odesa) and demanded UKR and US ships to leave it. 

"Hamilton" and "Pavel Derzhavin" on background

184023241_1911736838978055_5498307306630

"Provornyi"

news_20210509_080349_1620536629.jpg

"Bezuprechnyi"

 

news_20210509_080320_1620536600.jpg

Today US cutter departed Odesa, but Russian corvette "Pavel Derzhavin", Hamilton's "watchdog", closed to Ukrainain coast to 19 miles in area of Chernomorsk (large port in Odesa region). After Ukrainian radar post detected Russian ship and warned that it closed to 12 mile zone, Russian ship changed cource.

Edited by Haiduk
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  • 1 month later...

Russian naval forces shelled UK destroyer HMS Defender in Black Sea, when this ship "entered on 3 km in  Russian territorial sea (12 mile zone)" in Fiolent cape area. HMS Defender crossed the "territorial sea" zone at 11:52, Russian Coast Guard ship warned and then in 12:06 and 12:08 twice shelled at destroyer. In 12:17 Russian Su-24M dropped four OFAB-250 bombs the course of destroyer. At 12:23 HMS Defender left "territiorial sea".

Since Russian status of occupied Crimea is not recognized, territorial waters around it formally considered as Ukrainian, so British ship didn't violate any law because her visit was agreed with Ukraine.

https://ria.ru/20210623/korabl-1738233635.html - first source in Russian

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57583363 - in English

On the photo HMS Defender in Odesa port several days ago

1-64.jpg

AIS track of HMS Defender

E4kG_vTWUAYQ0vK?format=png&name=small

Edited by Haiduk
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Quote

Britain has denied Russian reports that its military fired warning shots at a UK destroyer in the Black Sea.

Moscow's defence ministry was quoted as saying that HMS Defender entered Russian territorial waters near Crimea while a patrol ship fired warning shots and a jet dropped bombs in its path.

But Britain's Ministry of Defence (MoD) said no warning shots had been fired at HMS Defender.

It added that the ship was sailing in Ukrainian waters.

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said in a statement that HMS Defender was carrying out a "routine transit" and entered an internationally recognised traffic corridor.

"As is routine, Russian vessels shadowed her passage and she was made aware of training exercises in her wider vicinity," he added.

 

The MoD said the Russians were carrying out a gunnery exercise in the Black Sea and provided prior warning of their activity.

"No shots were directed at HMS Defender and we do not recognise the claim that bombs were dropped in her path," it added.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57583363

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