September is coming

[Erwin]

Even more so re China.

[Haiduk]

Two pr.775 Ropucha сlass landing ships "Alexander Otrakovsy" and "Kondopoga" of Northern Fleet have passed Bosphorus today. Their destination - Sevastopol.

Next day the passing of another two the same landing ships, but from Baltic Fleet - "Koroliov" and "Kaliningrad" is expected

Detachment of Caspian sea Flotilia of 15 banners (8 landing crafts, 3 armored gun boats, 4 supply vessels) passed Kerch strait and entered Black Sea from Azov sea.

In Azov sea remained 3 missile corevtte of Caspian flotilia, armed with Calibr-NK cruise missiles. 

Edited April 17, 2021 by Haiduk

[DMS]

On 4/15/2021 at 2:51 PM, Haiduk said:

He is also product of nation's menthality - Russians can be dissatisfied with rising prices, arbitraines of clercs, but they anyway want "tough hand", ruling them and defending the "wealth and spirituality of Russia from encroachments of the hostile West" and "Russian-speaking compatriots" in neighbour countries. This "величие" ("greatness" [of the state]) and "all around must fear us" are primary things for Russian society. Untill the system and menthality (additionally feeding by brainwashing TV-propaganda) will not be broken, this will be like heads of Hydra. Instead one Putin the next will come. Maybe the same Patrushev. Or Shoigu. Or Ivanov. They are all confess the same Putinism and maybe more than Putin himself - Russians like it.  

I can't believe that you are serious. But you are, obviously. And western guys buy this.  

[chuckdyke]

There is no such a thing as a friendly political discussion. I live in Australia, but we are still described as western guys. Ok any of you guys ever heard of the Petrov Affair? It happened during the Cold War. 

Petrov Affair | National Museum of Australia (nma.gov.au) 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

I can't believe that you are serious.

To be serious it's enough for many years to read Russian military and even game forums. Авиабаза, Отвага, even old Наш Комбат CM-forum. It's enough to read posts not even Russian politics, but just second-level propagandists and most of usual Russians from how "Putin lifted Russia from the knees" to big amount of children songs about "great Putin" like "Дядя Вова, мы с тобой". The cult of person on minimals. But you have still a room to grow. 

[Haiduk]

Mentioned above two large landing ships from Baltic fleet have entered Black sea today. Russian group of landing vessels in Black Sea now has 11 landing ships and more than 20 landing crafts and landing-assault boats.

[DMS]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

To be serious it's enough for many years to read Russian military and even game forums. Авиабаза, Отвага, even old Наш Комбат CM-forum. It's enough to read posts not even Russian politics, but just second-level propagandists and most of usual Russians from how "Putin lifted Russia from the knees" to big amount of children songs about "great Putin" like "Дядя Вова, мы с тобой". The cult of person on minimals. But you have still a room to grow. 

I'm not sure are your sincerely mistaken or trolling. Really? Is that video with song "Дядя Вова мы с тобой" (boy sings "Vladimir Putin is a good guy") considered seriously in Russian internet? Cool song, nice boy, so touching words, like that? Isn't "lifting from knees" 2000-s era propaganda slogan (when relations with West were good, by the way) repeated with sarcasm nowdays? So you really think that people say or think that "Putin lifted Russian from the knees"? You must be well speaking Russian and should understand the sense. You must be intentionally "misunderstanding".

I see there evolution of Bandera-like 1930-s ideologemes about spoiled moscovites with ugly culture. Sad that western powers pursue far-right ideologies in their own countries but don't demand from Ukraine to stop encouraging local rightists... Though, I should mention that Russia does the same, helping to right parties in Europe. Sorry for politics, but really, I can't just skip that nonsense about naturally autocratic, violence loving Russians.

[Artkin]

Well the US went through the same thing so...

[Haiduk]

21st of April tomorrow, the speach of Putin. 

There is a large forum "The unity of Russians"will be gathered in Donetsk on 22-23 of April (on the screen of Russian former DNR-fighter and propagandist). Many well-known Russian propagandists already came to Donetsk. About 400 participators expects, large part of them will arrive from Russia.

Either it will be tied with Putin's speach with probable recognition of "republics" - it's unknown.

But, today also many social network channels and accounts of Russian propagandists suddenly shared information (on the screen) that Putin's recognition of DNR/LNR, which expects on tomorrow, is probably Ukrainian information diversion, "but we want to hope this information is mitake". 

Is there some sort of hesitations in Kremlin? All will be clear soon.

Also expects that tomorrow Putin can make some statements about Belarus status on background of "exposing of assasination or abduction attempt" on Lukashenko and his sons. Lukashenko already blamed CIA, Western countries and even Ukrainian nationalists. 

USA moved to Poland several dozens of F-15 and F-16 fighters. Pentagon says this is "planned operation, not tied with Russian build-up on Ukrainian border". Who knows... 

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

A.Merkel on the PASE session made a statement that Germany will complete Nord Stream-2. Also she emphasized the importance of continuing a dialogue with Russia despite all tensions. Putin can open сhampagne. 

Many our experts believed, Putin can dare to take military actions against Ukraine not earlier than gas will pump through NS-2. Ukrainain pipe then will became almost needless and value of security of Ukraine in eyes of so-called "old Europe" will fall to zero. Europe doesn't want to confront with Russia. I belive if Putin will attack Baltic states, countries of "old Europe" (except UK) will find 100 000 reasons for "continuing dialogue" instead military response. 

[Bearstronaut]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

A.Merkel on the PASE session made a statement that Germany will complete Nord Stream-2. Also she emphasized the importance of continuing a dialogue with Russia despite all tensions. Putin can open сhampagne. 

Many our experts believed, Putin can dare to take military actions against Ukraine not earlier than gas will pump through NS-2. Ukrainain pipe then will became almost needless and value of security of Ukraine in eyes of so-called "old Europe" will fall to zero. Europe doesn't want to confront with Russia. I belive if Putin will attack Baltic states, countries of "old Europe" (except UK) will find 100 000 reasons for "continuing dialogue" instead military response. 

Unlike Ukraine the Baltic states are NATO members and a Russian attack on them would trigger Article 5.

[Kraft]

Europe is far too passive about this. If Putin makes another land grab with thousands dead nobody will act after the facts have been made. Crimea and Donbas have shown that peace talk #99 & sanctions on Russia to freeze a conflict that Putin actively heats up won't deter him in future actions of the same kind. Appeasement is and always has been a joke.

Edited April 20, 2021 by Kraft

[Sgt Joch]

There is no indication that Russia would ever invade the Baltic States. If they do, they will be protected by NATO and we will have WW3 on our hands and the end of civilization as we know it since any all out war between USA and Russia will probably go nuclear very quickly......

The reality, and everyone has known it since 2014, is that NATO will not go to war with Russia over Crimea/Donbass.

 

[CHEqTRO]

There is no way that NATO allows russians troops west of the Dnieper. If the russians launch an invasion for real, and not a small land grab for the rest of the Donbass and the Dnieper-Crimea canal, there will be a war between NATO and Russia.

Such an attack should also be considered an attack agains NATO, and looking by recent diplomatic events, countries which depend on NATO (The english, the eastern european countires, and well, of course, the americans) are taking a far more bellicose approach (Just look at the whole czech drama, with its former ambassador to Moscow calling for the activation of article 5 over state terrorist attacks carried by the GRU against their country), as they realize the strategic threat that having russians at the Carpathians would mean. Germany and France are not that invested in NATO so their approach is more conciliatory, but make no mistake, if **** hits the fan, they will join the war no doubt

[Artkin]

And Poland too of course (Please consider this for a module... ). Their GDP is pretty much equal to Russia's last I checked...

I'm curious. Are F16's considered expendable? I find it hard believing they would survive for long at all in a real fight. The F-15s are at least specialized, and are pretty good at what they do. F16's in all their flavors seem like the filler (Similar to the Pzkpfw IV) for the US air force.

 

[Marwek77 aka Red Reporter]

18 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

There is no way that NATO allows russians troops west of the Dnieper. If the russians launch an invasion for real, and not a small land grab for the rest of the Donbass and the Dnieper-Crimea canal, there will be a war between NATO and Russia.

Since when is Ukraine NATO member? Do you really wish this?

[CHEqTRO]

59 minutes ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:

Since when is Ukraine NATO member? Do you really wish this?

What, war with the russians?. Not really, no. But, do I want the russians, a natural adversary of an united european union, with their borders in the Carpathians? Definitively not. And thats its just me, that I am only really interested in the future of the EU and their countries, if you have also an interest put in american control of Europe, even more reasons to do not want so.

I am sorry, but I am not convinced that peace should be achieved by claudication.  Do not think that having our own "Peace in our time" moment would be that ideal neither.

Plus, honestly, I do not know what it would say about us europeans if after making so many assurances to the Ukranians that they can be safe under the European Umbrella, (and after they even had a revolution in hopes of the European dream), we just ****ing leave them at the first sight of trouble. 

 

 

[DMS]

21 hours ago, Kraft said:

Europe is far too passive about this.

Guys, Ukraine didn't declare war to Russia. Ukrainian business trade with Russia as usual. Your government didn't nationalise Russian business. You buy Donbas coil, transit Russian gas to Europe. I can't understand you at all. 

[Artkin]

I thought Ukraine was flirting with the thought of Nato?

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

There is no way that NATO allows russians troops west of the Dnieper.

Our experts consider such scenario probability as low. Russia doesn't want to conquer Ukraine. Neither Eastern bank of Dnieper, nor Western. Russian wants to force Ukraine for heavy political concessions, using the weakness of current president, which as I told further critically vulnerable in questions of warfare the losses, tied with it. Zelenskyi all this time thought that enough "to cease fire" and the war will be finished. Alas, he didn't change own mind even now. Reportedly, Ukrainian troops have received an order to refrain from the fire in response in order not to provoce Russia.

Several days ago, in Paris, during the meeting with Macron and Merkel, Zelenskyi had withstood the pressure so far - France and Germany developed own vision of "clusters" about Donbas question, which almost completely suits Russia. And this vision they try to impose to Ukraine. Good "allies"!  Also Crimean water supply question agan was rised unofficially, some sources say.

So, Putin doesn't need in large-scale agression with Dnieper crossing etc... In the case of militray solution, Russian will arrange limited operations in Nova Kakhovka - Melitopol area (water for Crimea), in Donbas and probably some threaten actions on Kharkiv -Sumy direction. Russians even don't need to occupy large industrial cities. In the case of success, they just will cut off traffic lines, which almost paralize economical activity and force Ukraine to concessions. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Haiduk

[CHEqTRO]

31 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our experts consider such scenario probability as low. Russia doesn't want to conquer Ukraine. Neither Eastern bank of Dnieper, nor Western. Russian wants to force Ukraine for heavy political concessions, using the weakness of current president, which as I told further critically vulnerable in questions of warfare the losses, tied with it. Zelenskyi all this time thought that enough "to cease fire" and the war will be finished. Alas, he didn't change own mind even now. Reportedly, Ukrainian troops have received an order to refrain from the fire in response in order not to provoce Russia.

Personally, I remain unconvinced. Such small operations will be dependant upon in that the Ukranian army doesnt really respond to them. 

For example, an amphibous operation into the Kherson area ould be susceptable to attacks from beyond the Dnieper and even around Odessa. What if the Ukranian army starts counterattacking with Ballistic missiles and planes, are they not going to attack those possitions and allow them to keep inflicting casualties on their forces? What if the Ukranians start mounting a counterattack from beyond the river. Are they going to allow it? Wouldnt be better to cross the river and secure a bridgehead to make sure that such a counterattack doesnt materialize? And just like that, they have just crossed the Dnieper. In the case that such threats arise, it wouldnt be better for the russian army to make sure that the Ukranian army is not a threat to its advances, no matter how small those are?

I am sorry, but if the russians decide to launch an attack ( and they do not have a sure reassural that the Ukranian army would not retaliete ) they would have to make a large scale attack.

Also, I disagree with the notion that Russia has no interest in conquering Ukraine. Russian economy its in downfall and the domestic situation is not improving. NordStream 2 would help of course, but I am not sure to which degre it would do so. For how long can Russia sustain the second biggest army in the world (or is it the third?, I do not remember right now, honestly) whit only the GDP equivalent of the Iberian Peninsula? What would they do when they have to face the chinese for control of Eurasia (lets not even talk about the economic leverage that the chinese are going to have over the russians at this rythm), if they are still boxed in in Europe and with such an ailing economy?

Nevertheless, at the end of the day, I am just some random dude that likes history and wargames , and reads too many news in international politics and geopolitics. Most likely, those experts you mention know better than I do. I sincerely hope that is the case.

Edited April 21, 2021 by CHEqTRO

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

What if the Ukranian army starts counterattacking with Ballistic missiles and planes,

Russia has overhelming advantage in aviation even in those forces, which already deployed near our borders. All our hopes is on relativaly strong air defense, which can inflict to Russians sensitive losses. Our aviation can be used only as limited addition to SAMs, else this will be one way ticket for our pilots.

Ballistic missiles... Well... What we have? 12 launchers of old Tochka-U, which can be intercepted by Russian SAMs, if they of course will organize own "umbrella" properly.

40 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Wouldnt be better to cross the river and secure a bridgehead to make sure that such a counterattack doesnt materialize?

Will be better to strike bridges with cruise or ballistic missiles, also hit ammunition bases in the depth of country. Several days of such warfare, and even if the miracle happened and Zelenskyi will not crowl on knees to sign capitulation - only for the sake of "no more victims", that "ethernally deeply concerned Europe" will also push him to this step. Real politic and money likes the silence. 

46 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Also, I disagree with the notion that Russia has no interest in conquering Ukraine. Russian economy its in downfall and the domestic situation is not improving.

There is 21st century now. Much simplier to buy this economical actives, maintaining loyal governments. Do you know Russian business a long time before the war bought almost Ukrainian oil rafinery plants and partially stop them? An interesting coincidence - now on the background of Russian military build-up, Ukraine encounter with lack of diesel. Critical resourse for armor, trucks and trains, which will be carry military cargo. We have only 25% of own diesel. And more 50% we... yes, DMS right here, we buy in Russia. Buy via commercial structures, belonging to Ukrainian politics, close to Kremlin, like Victor Medvedchuk, for example. Strange war...   

[CHEqTRO]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russia has overhelming advantage in aviation even in those forces, which already deployed near our borders. All our hopes is on relativaly strong air defense, which can inflict to Russians sensitive losses. Our aviation can be used only as limited addition to SAMs, else this will be one way ticket for our pilots.

Ballistic missiles... Well... What we have? 12 launchers of old Tochka-U, which can be intercepted by Russian SAMs, if they of course will organize own "umbrella" properly.

I find hard to believe that you guys have no strategic capacity of retaliation against a Russian incursion. I said the air force and ballistic missiles as and example, but you also have to take into account the Ukranian navy, antiship missiles, radar installations, long range artillery and just plain army concentrations (and more things that i cannot think right now, i am sure ) could be severe threats to the russian forces, that would need to be dealt with. Do you really think that your army would not try to stop a russian incursion and just accept the territory loss? I am not being sarcastic here by the way, i am geniunly curios for your opinion.

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Will be better to strike bridges with cruise or ballistic missiles, also hit ammunition bases in the depth of country. Several days of such warfare, and even if the miracle happened and Zelenskyi will not crowl on knees to sign capitulation - only for the sake of "no more victims", that "ethernally deeply concerned Europe" will also push him to this step. Real politic and money likes the silence. 

Of course Ukraine surrender  is a possibility, thought funnily enough I seem to have more confidence in your president that you do. I guess it will depend in what the russians ask for.

 

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There is 21st century now. Much simplier to buy this economical actives, maintaining loyal governments. Do you know Russian business a long time before the war bought almost Ukrainian oil rafinery plants and partially stop them? An interesting coincidence - now on the background of Russian military build-up, Ukraine encounter with lack of diesel. Critical resourse for armor, trucks and trains, which will be carry military cargo. We have only 25% of own diesel. And more 50% we... yes, DMS right here, we buy in Russia. Buy via commercial structures, belonging to Ukrainian politics, close to Kremlin, like Victor Medvedchuk, for example. Strange war...

Hmm, It wouldnt be the first time that countries with comercial ties go to war. Also, wouldnt the situation you describe be more of a one way deal? Ukraine is dependant in Russian gas, that I know, what I do not know is what the russians are dependant from the ukranians (apart from water for Crimea, funnily enough) to make an invasion unsuitable? To me it seems that the russians are the ones holding nearly all the cards in trade. Of course, that changes if you take into account possible European and american sanctions, which will also be rendered non-important in case of war, of course.

 

 

[Bufo]

12 hours ago, DMS said:

Guys, Ukraine didn't declare war to Russia. 

No, Ukraine didn't declare war with Russia, Russia attacked Ukraine without a declaration of war.

Edited April 22, 2021 by Bufo

[Bufo]

11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian troops have received an order to refrain from the fire in response in order not to provoce Russia.

Of course, its the same story of a bigger aggressor vs a weaker defender. 

I think the Russians count on the rebel forces to escalate the situation, and if the Ukrainians would counter-attack that would be an excuse to launch a major attack "to protect Russian population".