September is coming

[Haiduk]

While one speaking heads in Russia say "It's just planned maneuvers", other speaking heads continue threaten Ukraine.

N.Patrushev, the secretary of Security Council made a statement in occupied Sevastopol, that Ukraine with support of NATO can arrange a provocatuion for reason to attack Crimea (!!!!) and can arrange terroristic attacks inside Russia.

Here his quote, according  https://ria.ru/20210414/ukraina-1728242966.html (in Russian):

New Ukrainian military docrine defines Russia as an enemy... Flirting with new US administratin, Kyiv is ready to plung  the country into military gambles... The reason for the start of warfare may be provocations, organized by Ukraine with support of USA with death of servicemen and loss of military equiment... Unfriendly and destructive actions against Russia must be severly supressed, and the culprits must be brougt to justice...

In Ukraine with support of Western countries were established the centers for diversionary&recon groups training, which probably will prepare terroristic attacks in Russia or in other countries....

USA declares their disinterest in inciting of conflict, but indeed allocates funds for arming of Ukrainian forces, deploys the lethal weapon, trains Ukrainian troops, plans a series of joint maneuvers, inceases the presense of ships in  Black Sea , 

 

Edited April 14, 2021 by Haiduk

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

While one speaking heads in Russia say "It's just planned maneuvers", other speaking heads continue threaten Ukraine.

N.Patrushev, the secretary of Security Council made a statement in occupied Sevastopol, that Ukraine with support of NATO can arrange a provocatuion for reason to attack Crimea (!!!!) and can arrange terroristic attacks inside Russia.

Here his quote, according  https://ria.ru/20210414/ukraina-1728242966.html (in Russian):

New Ukrainian military docrine defines Russia as an enemy... Flirting with new US administratin, Kyiv is ready to plung  the country into military gambles... The reason for the start of warfare may be provocations, organized by Ukraine with support of USA with death of servicemen and loss of military equiment... Unfriendly and destructive actions against Russia must be severly supressed, and the culprits must be brougt to justice...

In Ukraine with support of Western countries were established the centers for diversionary&recon groups training, which probably will prepare terroristic attacks in Russia or in other countries....

USA declares their disinterest in inciting of conflict, but indeed allocates funds for arming of Ukrainian forces, deploys the lethal weapon, trains Ukrainian troops, plans a series of joint maneuvers, inceases the presense of ships in  Black Sea , 

 

Russia blaming Ukraine for provocation after invading Donbass and annexing Crimea is some Orwellian ****.

[Artkin]

15 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Quite so. The prime cause and motivation is exactly his feelings, pride, anger and fear. Strategic&cunning is consequence. Putin many times claimed that "the collapse of USSR is greatest catastrophe of 20th century", he said also "Ukraine is not a state", in 2014 he allowed himself to say "Kiev is Russian city". He wants to revive "USSR 2.0" with Russia like "collector of the Russian lands" (the term of Russian hystorians of 18-19th century). According to "Russian world" doctrine, Russia must be a dominant among orthodoxal Slavic nations, especially among East-European Slavic states - Ukraine and Belarus. It's ridiculous, the same Slavs, but Catholic or Greco-Catholic faith this doctrine considers like apostates and agents of "hostile West". Because of this "Russian world" doctrine doesn't pretend on Western Ukraine, like "the hostile to Russian ideas, polonized and fallen into Greco-catholic heresy". Because of that Putin in 2014 like a joke or on serious offerd to Polish president "to take back Western Ukraine".   

Thus, Russian state ideology is a weird mixture of seemingly incompatible things - imperial great-power, modern Euroasinism, Sovietism and orthodoxal clericalism, maintaining interests of powers and providing "Russian world" conception. And without complete control over Ukraine (in sense Ukrainan govt must be exclusively loyal to Russia), Russian ambitions on post-Soviet space and among Orthodoxial nations will never realized.  

And the thing is - I can see something like this happening under Putin.

Who else could be seen mighty enough on the world stage? Russia will have a hard time finding another Putin so I think it's obvious there will be a land grab shortly.

Also note - Ukraine hasn't been getting ANY weaker since 2014. The clock is ticking.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Artkin

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Artkin said:

Russia will have a hard time finding another Putin

Putin is not only self-sufficient authocratic leader. He is a product of alloy of Soviet administrative system, FSB, loyal oligarсhy and powerful and cruel crime groups of 90th (mostly created under control of KGB/FSB). He is also product of nation's menthality - Russians can be dissatisfied with rising prices, arbitraines of clercs, but they anyway want "tough hand", ruling them and defending the "wealth and spirituality of Russia from encroachments of the hostile West" and "Russian-speaking compatriots" in neighbour countries. This "величие" ("greatness" [of the state]) and "all around must fear us" are primary things for Russian society. Untill the system and menthality (additionally feeding by brainwashing TV-propaganda) will not be broken, this will be like heads of Hydra. Instead one Putin the next will come. Maybe the same Patrushev. Or Shoigu. Or Ivanov. They are all confess the same Putinism and maybe more than Putin himself - Russians like it.  

So, there is great mistake of many our and western politics, which expect, that Putin will die soon (he is really very ill) and Russia turned out instanly in peaceful democtatic country. No. Everything will the same or Russia will become more agressive, if "hawks" of MoD and GRU will take over FSB. And will be completely funny, if next president will be Kadyrov.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Haiduk

[Sgt Joch]

Speculation as to what Russia may or may not do is just that, speculation. No one really knows.

The theory that Russia wants to impose its rule on its neighbours and recreate the Russian Empire has been around for 30 years and is frankly getting long in the tooth.

A more modern theory is that Russia is adjusting to the new reality that it is now just Russia and will take actions which are its own best interests. There was an interesting essay on this a few months ago:

Quote

Simultaneous crises in Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Kyrgyzstan have demonstrated Russia’s maturing approach to its neighborhood. Russia is learning to mind its limitations; to repel residual nostalgia; and to think straight, putting issues before personalities, and staying focused on its own interests, leaving the empire farther and farther behind.

Moscow’s New Rules - Carnegie Moscow Center - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

[Sgt Joch]

Meanwhile, back on the ground, it does not look like an invasion is coming anytime soon:

Quote

Pentagon assesses the Russian forces' grouping at Ukraine border isn't currently prepared for offensive operations, due to lack of evidence of the logistics, fuel and medical capability that would need to be pre-positioned, but situation may change quickly, officials add.

Status-6 sur Twitter : "Pentagon assesses the Russian forces' grouping at Ukraine border isn't currently prepared for offensive operations, due to lack of evidence of the logistics, fuel and medical capability that would need to be pre-positioned, but situation may change quickly, officials add. (CNN)" / Twitter

[Sgt Joch]

and this:  

Quote

Russian forces are deploying in staging areas, not moving to forward assembly points, or dispersing. This may change. The distance between Voronezh and Ukraine for example offers some time for indications and warnings, and modest opportunity to detect change in posture.

Quote

My view of the situation has not changed. It appears a coercive demonstration, but the chance that it is not remains significant. It is too early, and overly optimistic, to assume the situation will de-escalate.

Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael) / Twitter

[Sgt Joch]

Ukrainian military convoy:

 

[CHEqTRO]

Counterpoint:

 

This might as well be considered an act of war.

Edit: Also, about the comment related to the supposed lack of logistics, I would like to add this : https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1382581982278922240

 

Edited April 15, 2021 by CHEqTRO

[Haiduk]

News about Kerch strait closing is not completely confirmed yet. But this may be true. 

4 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

due to lack of evidence of the logistics, fuel and medical capability

There is an opinion, Russians already have stored all of need to them in previous years. Current group of troops also partially moved from other regions of Russian. About half of them is constantly deployed here new-formed divisions. Ukrainan general Zabrodskyi, ex-chief of Air-assault troops considres, Russia will not be establish classical breackthrough groups, but just will cross the border with occupied Donbass territories and will built up own involvement gradually, depending on Ukrainain reaction.

In this time they formed three groups:

- Voronezh-Oriol (against north-east of Ukaraine): 15 BTG

- Don (against OOS zone in Donbas): 11 BTG

- Crimea: 22 BTG

About dozen of BTGs are on the way. Full deployment will be completed during next week. Estimating number of personnel - 110 000

Edited April 15, 2021 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

Ukrainian military convoy:

Yes, only Azov has such type of tanks. Since Zelenskyi became a president, Azov almost didn't use in OOS zone by rotations so as not to "anger" Russia during attempts of make agreement in negotiations. So, if already Azov is moving to frontline, our leaders really prepare to the worth.  

Edited April 15, 2021 by Haiduk

[HUSKER2142]

2015 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
2016 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
2017 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
2018 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
2019 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
2020 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
2021 - Russia will invade Ukraine.
202? - Russia will invade Ukraine. 

So when ?

[fireship4]

You missed one:

2014 - Russia did invade Ukraine.

[CHEqTRO]

@Haiduk This news has just appeared in my Twitter TL : https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1382772816483876876

What do you think? After the possible closure of the Kerch strait and the Polish and USA expulsion of russian diplomats (I know that there has been a dispute betwwen a russian diplomat and the Latvians as well) I am starting to really worry. You probably have somewhat more information being in the field. Do you think there is veracity to this news? I worry for what it may happen this night if they are true. Anyways, be safe

 

[fireship4]

I would advise anyone in Ukraine at the moment refrain from clicking on links that are posted on here.  As paranoid as that sounds, it could be used to establish your location without the correct protections.

[CHEqTRO]

Just now, fireship4 said:

I would advise anyone in Ukraine at the moment refrain from clicking on links that are posted on here.  As paranoid as that sounds, it could be used to establish your location without the correct protections.

I can post it as a pop up, instead of as a link, if you prefer it that way. Here it goes: 

 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

What do you think?

This is fake. Ukrainian twitters from Donbas keep silence about this.

About Kerch strait. This night there was engagement in Azov sea in 25 miles from the Kerch strait between three our artillery boats, which escorted commercial vessels and five Russian Coast Guard boats. Russians dangerously maneuvered and threatened via radio. UKR boats warned they are ready to open fire and Russians left agressive attempts.  

 

[CHEqTRO]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is fake. Ukrainian twitters from Donbas keep silence about this.

About Kerch strait. This night there was engagement in Azov sea in 25 miles from the Kerch strait between three our artillery boats, which escorted commercial vessels and five Russian Coast Guard boats. Russians dangerously maneuvered and threatened via radio. UKR boats warned they are ready to open fire and Russians left agressive attempts.  

 

That is a relief to hear. Hopefully it stays that way.

Curiosly, I had read about that incident, thought the version I had read stated that it was only one ukranian ship, which if I remember correctly they said it was rammed, against 6 russian vessels, and not 5. If i find the twitt from where i read it i will post it here.

Thanks for the clarification and the info.

[fireship4]

45 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

I can post it as a pop up, instead of as a link, if you prefer it that way.

Narrowing down the internet when you know the people you are looking for and where they post (this website/forum/thread as an example) can be done in myriad ways.

They want your IP address first, this is available to Battlefront, and compromising their logs may show it.  It is probably easier to find the user elsewhere on the web, via similar names and other information.  But you could make posts here with invisible pictures that you host on a server you control and see who downloads them, or have a Twitter account which does something similar.  In this case even opening the page (if your browser loads images automatically) will put you on the list.

Tying an IP address to a location can again be done in many ways, now that Google establishes this (via e.g. phones with known locations connecting to open wi-fi networks etc.) whether you want them to or not, and records it, you could access their Google account logs & Google Maps data.

Edited April 15, 2021 by fireship4

[Haiduk]

Biden entered sanctions against Russia and declared national emergency because of threat of national security of USA from harmful foreign activity of the Russian Federation:  https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/15/a-letter-on-blocking-property-with-respect-to-specified-harmful-foreign-activities-of-the-government-of-the-russian-federation/

So guys, LOOK OUT 21-23 OF APRIL. 21st of April Putin will deliver own annual report in front of Parliament. This will be key datas. Putin likes a symbols and symbolic datas. 21st day of 21st year of his rule of 21st year on century. On the next day a meetig of Federation Council is planned. Knowingly, DNR leaders prepared three variants of appeals to Putin. One with request for admission to Russia, the second with request of DNR independence recognition, and the third... I forgot.. Also all appeals include request about "military and security cooperation". Nobody knows which variant of appeals will send to Moscow. Nobody knows what Putin will say at 21st. And nobody knows for what Federation Council will gather next day and what it resolute. 

Probably Putin recognized DNR and we will have invasion without invasion. Russian troops according with agreement just will enter to DNR/LNR already not like "vacationers", but like real Russian occupation forces and this is will be next Abkhazia or Transnistria variant. If Ukraine will try to engage heavily - well, the rest of troops along our borders probably will make "forcing to the peace". But maybe USA and UK find some heavy arguments for Putin and will be nothing.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

27 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Curiosly, I had read about that incident, thought the version I had read stated that it was only one ukranian ship, which if I remember correctly they said it was rammed, against 6 russian vessels, and not 5. If i find the twitt from where i read it i will post it here.

This is incident of 2018 year. Those, about which I have written above, took place today's night.

Edited April 15, 2021 by Haiduk

[CHEqTRO]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is incident of 2018 year. Those, which I have written above, took place today's night.

Curios. The description of events that I told you were supposedly also what happened the past night, atleast that was what the guy claimed. Funnily enough, I found the twit during the morning, when the incident had not been yet confirmed by the Ukranian navy but there were already rumours about it. I would not find surprising that the guy found the rumours and decided to add its personal touch to the story. 

No doubt from my part that you are right tho, you are a far more credible source ;also, no matter how I search, I cannot find the twit, so it was most likely deleted.

 

[Artkin]

Anything Haiduk posts I blindly worship... 

Guilty... 

[Sgt Joch]

while we are waiting for the invasion .... or non-invasion..., I thought some might enjoy this. I saw this some time ago, but it seems appropriate to this topic:

"The “Moscow Rules”: Ten Principles for Working with Russia

Russia’s actions and statements are guided by an understanding of the world that is consistent, and consistently expressed. And yet, they repeatedly cause surprise, alarm and dismay in Western capitals.

Western leaders often find it hard to understand that Russian assumptions persist unchanged: that Moscow believes in a hierarchical, rather than rules-based view of international relations, spheres of influence and the limited sovereignty of neighbours, the ‘right’ to a defence perimeter extending into or well beyond the territory of others, a right to oversight of countries where Russian ‘compatriots’ reside, and a default to Darwinian assumptions when these principles are not accepted.

This lack of comprehension of the fundamentally different Russian approach to international relations leads to errors that recur time and again in Western assessments of what Russia might do next, and how the West can best manage the relationship with Moscow.

The following ten “don’ts” are based on decades of personal observation of Russia, and the study of centuries of its previous history. Taken together, they provide a set of rules for avoiding further expensive mistakes and unpleasant surprises when dealing with Moscow.

1. Don’t say “they wouldn’t do that, it doesn’t make sense”.
Abandon any assumptions about what Russia might do that are based on what a Western liberal democracy would consider rational. Russia’s decision-making framework is bounded by an entirely different understanding of history, geography, social policy and relations between countries from that of the West. To understand the choices open to Moscow, it is critically important to see the world through a Russian lens, rather than be guided by what “makes sense” in Washington or Brussels.

2. Don’t confuse understanding Russia with excusing Russia.
Russia is guided by its own distinctive sense of historical imperatives, and consequently an enduring sense of privilege to disregard commonly accepted norms of behaviour. But the conviction with which these views are expressed does not necessarily make them right, or provide an excuse when they are acted on in ways the West finds repugnant.

3. Don’t ask binary questions.
Don’t ask about Russia “is it either this or that”, “either yes or no”. The answer is likely to be both, at the same time, or neither, or more. Dealing with Russia necessitates being comfortable with paradoxes and contradictions, and many things spoken and written about Russia are both true and not true at the same time. Consequently, when you ask “why does Russia do X”, don’t look for just one answer. There will be several reasons, some of which will overlap and some of which will contradict each other.

4. Don’t be distracted by bluster, bravado and bluff.
Just because Russia makes a lot of angry noise about your plans or proposals doesn’t mean Moscow will not be prepared to live with them when they are implemented. Russia defaults to threats and feigned outrage in order to improve its negotiating position, because the West’s responses show that this sometimes works. Listen instead for changes in tone that indicate real concerns.

5. Don’t forget that Russia does not consist of just one man.
The current leader in the Kremlin at any one time is not the problem if he is driven by persistent Russian beliefs and imperatives. The country and its leaders respond to internal and external challenges in ways that remain consistent over centuries; course corrections that accompany a change of leadership tend to be temporary aberrations.

6. Don’t just hope for “change”.
Change in Russia is rarely as deep as it appears, and certainly not always for the better; so it is dangerous to assume that political change in Russia is desirable because it will necessarily be an improvement. Russia’s current behaviour towards other countries and its own citizens is reprehensible. But by historical standards, Russia is still in a period of unprecedented liberalism. It would be hard for things to get better, but it would be very easy for things to get far, far worse.

7. Don’t expect Russia to respect values and standards that were invented elsewhere.
You can’t embarrass Russia over its behaviour at times when it places no value on its reputation. “Naming and shaming” has limited effect: it is important to “name” by continuing to call attention to Russian actions and holding Moscow to account for them, but do not expect Russia to feel the “shame”. What western liberal democracies think, or believe, or would like to happen is not a deciding criterion when Russia considers which course of action to choose.

8. Do not hope to appeal to Russia’s better nature. It doesn’t have one.
Russia sees compromise and cooperation, with no evident and immediate benefit to state or leadership interests, as unnatural and deeply suspicious. This places strict limits on the potential for working with Moscow even on what may appear to be shared challenges.

9. Don’t assume that there must be common ground.
It’s natural to search for these shared challenges, assuming there must be some way we can work with Russia on mutual interests. But there is a reason this search does not bring results, despite being conducted intensively throughout the almost three decades since the end of the USSR. Whenever it appears that Russia and the West could work together on a problem, it quickly becomes clear that not only Moscow’s understanding of the issue, but also its preferred solution and the methods it would favour to deliver it are entirely incompatible with Western norms, values and even laws.

10. Don’t think that you can choose whether to be at war with Russia or not.
Sometimes de-escalation, taken to its logical conclusion, equates to surrender. At the same time, Russia will never be “at peace” with you. Normal relations with Russia include fending off a wide range of hostile actions from Moscow; this is the default state throughout history, and Western nations should by now be realising this is the norm.

Taken together, these ten principles could help the West avoid repeating past errors in dealing with Moscow. This in turn would provide the basis for a relationship with Russia that is less hostage to misunderstanding and surprise."

https://icds.ee/en/the-moscow-rules-ten-principles-for-working-with-russia/

Edited April 17, 2021 by Sgt Joch

[z1812]

^ Seems if you changed Russia to the United States, and Moscow to Washington, the body text would almost stay the same.

Edited April 17, 2021 by z1812
inserted almost