Will Russia Attack Ukraine in September?

[Bufo]

1 hour ago, ikalugin said:

It is November, when was this invasion meant to happen?

December.

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, ikalugin said:

It is November, when was this invasion meant to happen?

Meanwhile... In Simferopol water reservoirs only 14-15 % of water left, more critical situation with Ayan water reservoir, which also feeds this city and it outskirts - only 8% of water remained and pumping from it has termianated. 

Source in Russian: https://www.ool.ru/news/krym/obshchestvo/v-vodokhranilishchakh-simferopolya-ostalos-14-protsentov-proektnogo-obema-vody/?fbclid=IwAR3xb_h1c6vsGJh2vqR5BotM8RxzuVU98fRErnrBavq8H3Y0gtaCOQg-gw4

[Erwin]

So, maybe around January 20?

[Sgt Joch]

IF Russia is going to attack, then the next 60 days while the U.S. is in a transition period would present a window of opportunity.

After all, Armenia and Azerbaijan just fought a month long war without the ROW much noticing or caring.

A limited offensive that the Russians could argue was part of the ongoing border clashes could potentially work without much Western reaction.

[Bulletpoint]

7 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

IF Russia is going to attack, then the next 60 days while the U.S. is in a transition period would present a window of opportunity.

After all, Armenia and Azerbaijan just fought a month long war without the ROW much noticing or caring.

A limited offensive that the Russians could argue was part of the ongoing border clashes could potentially work without much Western reaction.

After Syria and Islamic State, any war would have to be really bad to cause much of a reaction, regardless of US elections.

[ikalugin]

9 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

IF Russia is going to attack, then the next 60 days while the U.S. is in a transition period would present a window of opportunity.

After all, Armenia and Azerbaijan just fought a month long war without the ROW much noticing or caring.

A limited offensive that the Russians could argue was part of the ongoing border clashes could potentially work without much Western reaction.

 

On 11/18/2020 at 11:29 PM, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile... In Simferopol water reservoirs only 14-15 % of water left, more critical situation with Ayan water reservoir, which also feeds this city and it outskirts - only 8% of water remained and pumping from it has termianated. 

Source in Russian: https://www.ool.ru/news/krym/obshchestvo/v-vodokhranilishchakh-simferopolya-ostalos-14-protsentov-proektnogo-obema-vody/?fbclid=IwAR3xb_h1c6vsGJh2vqR5BotM8RxzuVU98fRErnrBavq8H3Y0gtaCOQg-gw4

I guess I would return to this problem after the next POTUS gets sworn in.

[DMS]

U.S. supporters of Ukrainian nationalists won the election, probably they will attack Donbas now.

[Kinophile]

@DMS Poke and poke, troll for reaction... Same crap, different thread. I like the new stuff but it's always fun to hear the classics

@Haiduk you reviewed previously my question re amphibious attack into Meritpol.

I'm curious - you didn't fully dismiss it (naturally, anything is possible in war) and noted it would probably take the form of infiltration /raids level. But this ignores airborne options...

If a full contact war has blown up along the Donbass line, I'm curious could UKR actually resist a determined sea & air assault along that coast? Even the act of shifting units to defend against it could cause critical fault lines to open up on the main front,no? 

Edited November 29, 2020 by kinophile

[Sgt.Squarehead]

31 minutes ago, kinophile said:

@DMS Poke and poke, troll for reaction... Same crap, different thread. I like the new stuff but it's always fun to hear the classics

You have to be kidding?  In this thread?  You accuse the Russian dude of trolling! 

Priceless! 

[Sgt Joch]

A bit of a long read, but well worth it in my opinion.

Moscow’s New Rules - Carnegie Moscow Center - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

According to the author, the seizure of Crimea was an opportunity grab done on the fly during the 2014 tumult and not part of some overarching plan to reconquer or dismember Ukraine. So Moscow's strategy will be to consolidate, not expand in the near future.

[Sgt.Squarehead]

35 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

So Moscow's strategy will be to consolidate, not expand in the near future.

I'm not sure what they would ever do with any more territory.....They can't fully utilise what they've already got (hence NATO's enthusiasm to 'help them out'). 

[ikalugin]

Well it is December and the Russian massed offensive is somehow is still not happening.

[Haiduk]

Rusisan jets trained search&destroy mission on USS Donald Cook, which entered the Black Sea day ago.

Also USS Porter will enter the Black Sea appox.27-28th Jan

 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Haiduk

[Sgt.Squarehead]

What, again? 

Maybe the USS Donald Cook should go somewhere else, the Russians don't seem to like it very much.

[ikalugin]

It is late Jan and nothing happened. Where is the invasion?

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Somewhere other than Ukraine, clearly. 

Should we do a list of countries invaded by Russia in the 21st century.....Compared to say, the US?

It might prove enlightening. 

 

[CHEqTRO]

I am sorry, but I fail to see why that there was not an invasion in september, or now: its of any relevance to this discussion. The initial assestment of "Russia will invade in September" came from an article, and then the discussion moved as to why that invasion was a possibility, as Haiduk explained. The fact that it hasnt come to pass yet doesnt change that possibility.

The fact that Russia has geopolitical interest in Ukraine its easy to all to see, and the possibility that the Russians might try another military adventure into their territory its something that the Ukranians would be wise to prepare for.

Edited January 26, 2021 by CHEqTRO

[ikalugin]

6 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

I am sorry, but I fail to see why that there was not an invasion in september, or now: its of any relevance to this discussion. The initial assestment of "Russia will invade in September" came from an article, and then the discussion moved as to why that invasion was a possibility, as Haiduk explained. The fact that it hasnt come to pass yet doesnt change that possibility.

The fact that Russia has geopolitical interest in Ukraine its easy to all to see, and the possibility that the Russians might try another military adventure into their territory its something that the Ukranians would be wise to prepare for.

I made my argument before, that such headlines get formed regularly and are a scaremongering tactic.

Which is why I am rediculing it now.

[Sgt.Squarehead]

[CHEqTRO]

1 hour ago, ikalugin said:

I made my argument before, that such headlines get formed regularly and are a scaremongering tactic.

Which is why I am rediculing it now.

Yeah, I get that, yet still considering that this is not the comments section of such article, and the following discussion was not strictly about it, but of the conditions surrounding the peninsula and why such an attack might make sense for the Russians, which AFAIK, all of the information given was true, and very well explained; I cannot avoid to feel that your ridiculing is somewhat out of place, wouldnt you agree?

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Betcha America invades somewhere new long before Russia does. 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, ikalugin said:

that such headlines get formed regularly and are a scaremongering tactic.

Can you prove this "regularity", coming from western intelligence sources? I repeat again - if in the sky of Ukraine armed B-52 and Tornado appeared, simulating stike on Sevastopol, British paratroopers dropped near Crimea and NATO ships maneuvered in Black Sea, then US and UK had too serious reasons to do this and spend money of own taxpayers and weapon resourses. Enough sharp reaction for "retired general statements".

Meanwhile in Crimea despite on some rains and snow, water reservoirs didn't fill again, consumption still too large. Putin actually rejected the project of desalination facility in Crema and said that Crimea can supply itself with own resourses. Local "power" anyway claims that thay will build the facility (hm... for what money and what technology?), but water can be received only up to 2023 (for which cost for population?).

This is information on the mid of December about water level in largest water reservoirs of Crimea. Blue bar is actual level of water, red bar - the "dead" level, which makes normal use impossible. Already now situation is worth - many districts of Simferopol have a dirty water with sharp chemical odor, because water supply company forced to use huge amount of reagents to supress stinky smell of water because of pumps lift the "dead zone" putrescent silt from the bed 

 

[Artkin]

Every action has a reaction for sure.

[ikalugin]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Can you prove this "regularity", coming from western intelligence sources? I repeat again - if in the sky of Ukraine armed B-52 and Tornado appeared, simulating stike on Sevastopol, British paratroopers dropped near Crimea and NATO ships maneuvered in Black Sea, then US and UK had too serious reasons to do this and spend money of own taxpayers and weapon resourses. Enough sharp reaction for "retired general statements".

Meanwhile in Crimea despite on some rains and snow, water reservoirs didn't fill again, consumption still too large. Putin actually rejected the project of desalination facility in Crema and said that Crimea can supply itself with own resourses. Local "power" anyway claims that thay will build the facility (hm... for what money and what technology?), but water can be received only up to 2023 (for which cost for population?).

This is information on the mid of December about water level in largest water reservoirs of Crimea. Blue bar is actual level of water, red bar - the "dead" level, which makes normal use impossible. Already now situation is worth - many districts of Simferopol have a dirty water with sharp chemical odor, because water supply company forced to use huge amount of reagents to supress stinky smell of water because of pumps lift the "dead zone" putrescent silt from the bed 

 

Yes, during Zapad-2017 and Kavkaz-2016 there were similar allegations that Russia would attack. They happen every year more or less.
The B52 flights were less related with the situation in Ukraine and more to the Russian nuclear posturing over the situation in Belorussia, specifically Russian Tu160 flights but there were other components to it, such as first time a joint exercise between Iskander units and the nuclear weapon handling units was done publicly, with not-so-subtle signalling, as part of reassuring our Belorussian allies who were pushing the narrative of being under a threat of invasion.

Same argument was applied to the bridge. Remember how Russia could never build a bridge into Crimea, with many reasons (ie complex geology) being cited? Yet we did.

Yes, I am aware of it. And guess what, this is not the first time Crimea has issues with availability of basic resources, particularly before the energy bridge was complete there were many electrical outages thanks to some Ukrainian activists who blew the power lines.

Edited January 26, 2021 by ikalugin

[Sgt.Squarehead]

Given our changing climate, Russia's looking like an increasingly attractive spot:

https://www.propublica.org/article/the-big-thaw-how-russia-could-dominate-a-warming-world?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB

Of course that couldn't be a factor in NATO's persistent belligerence.....Could it?