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Will Russia Attack Ukraine in September?


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No thanks, very informative and interesting as far as I'm concerned.

Russia is recognized by Ukraine and international community as agressor and occupant of Crimea. According to Geneva Convention of 1949 all responsibility for population supply on occupied territo

Woken from what? This is position of any healthy nation. You occupied our territories. Should we give up, recognized it, forgive occupants and supply as if nothing happened?  Don't hold your breath. I

17 hours ago, Erwin said:

8 days left for the attack.  Any logistics movements that would indicate preparations?

Hm... Why 8? Caucasus-2020 has already begun. Russians already without a war lost Su-30, accidentally hit with Su-35 gun, KAMAZ command vehicle and T-90A :) Well done! 

If seriously, the situation with water in Crimea is becoming more critical day by day, so the "threat window" for us can be longer than time of maneuvers, for example until new US president takes office. 

About hour ago B-52H entered in UKR airspace, procceded to Odesa, where possibly simulated missile launches on Russian facilities in Crimea and flew to Romania. UKR fighters escorted

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There are many recon flights today over Black Sea

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... Why 8? Caucasus-2020 has already begun. Russians already without a war lost Su-30, accidentally hit with Su-35 gun, KAMAZ command vehicle and T-90A :) Well done! 

No pain, no gain!

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If seriously, the situation with water in Crimea is becoming more critical day by day, so the "threat window" for us can be longer than time of maneuvers, for example until new US president takes office. 

Sounds like the plot to Mad Max: Fury Road.

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Todays US/UK activity spotted not only over Ukraine, but also near Balarus and Georgia.

Russia moved to Belarus additional forces of VDV for maneuvers - BTG in 900 men crossed the border recently. While three B-52H were busy over Ukraine, the forth approached to Belarus borders or Kaliningrad oblast of Russia from the Poland airspace, simulated launches and turned back

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Over Georgia US jet CL-600 Artemis not only passed along the Russia border, but entered in airspace over occupied Abkhazia (the Abkhazia-Georgia border is marked by bright red line)

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Cold war 2.0

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On 9/21/2020 at 3:20 PM, Haiduk said:

Crimean experts say the peninsula have the reserve of water about to December when current limits of supply will keep and wasn't significant rains. If Russia couldn't open the canal with diplomacy, they will do it with a weapon. Else water defficite will hit Russian military and industry too. This can happen in this year or in the next. We must be on alert.

Or this is a part of a scaremongering campaign that happens every year and with every exercise. Remember the times where the land bridge was being justified with the impossibility of building a normal bridge into Crimea? Or by impossibility to supplying the peninsular with electric power?

Incidentally the parts of Crimea with the most Russian interest (tourism, military) are the ones in the southern coastal area and not the central/northern Tatar populated plains most affected by water shortages.

But I would suggest that we avoid really going to deep here as this may, ehem, turn political, so we can agree to disagree.

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Todays US/UK activity spotted not only over Ukraine, but also near Balarus and Georgia.

Russia moved to Belarus additional forces of VDV for maneuvers - BTG in 900 men crossed the border recently. While three B-52H were busy over Ukraine, the forth approached to Belarus borders or Kaliningrad oblast of Russia from the Poland airspace, simulated launches and turned back

EimBIEDXsAUsL_E?format=jpg&name=large

Over Georgia US jet CL-600 Artemis not only passed along the Russia border, but entered in airspace over occupied Abkhazia (the Abkhazia-Georgia border is marked by bright red line)

Eimy_EJXcAIUjaF?format=jpg&name=large

Cold war 2.0

Considering early Russian posturing around the Belorussian crisis it concerns me significantly more than the Kavkaz-2020/Crimea story.

For context this was the first time 12th GUMO has been seen exercising together with Iskander units, amongst other things (ie the Tu160 flights)

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Saw 2 B52's heading home as I was working in the garden, lovely clear day this afternoon very good view, pity I didn't get a snap of them.

Wonder where they had been today...

Still quite in UK news about the increased flights, but Covid cases are soaring and economy diving, Brexit no deal likely and I guess America election more news worthy. 

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