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Will Russia Attack Ukraine in September?


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No thanks, very informative and interesting as far as I'm concerned.

So 1st October today,   can we start new thread Will Russia Attack Ukraine in October? I am sure you will find another former US general ready to give us some warnings...

Woken from what? This is position of any healthy nation. You occupied our territories. Should we give up, recognized it, forgive occupants and supply as if nothing happened?  Don't hold your breath. I

Nice video, if folk are annoyed by my tongue in cheek comments I will delete them.  I had not realised UK paras were in Ukraine so I am finding the thread useful. 

Not seen any BBC coverage yet, but other "news" is hogging the bandwidth. 

Thanks Haiduk for the info...

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17 hours ago, Erwin said:

8 days left for the attack.  Any logistics movements that would indicate preparations?

Hm... Why 8? Caucasus-2020 has already begun. Russians already without a war lost Su-30, accidentally hit with Su-35 gun, KAMAZ command vehicle and T-90A :) Well done! 

If seriously, the situation with water in Crimea is becoming more critical day by day, so the "threat window" for us can be longer than time of maneuvers, for example until new US president takes office. 

About hour ago B-52H entered in UKR airspace, procceded to Odesa, where possibly simulated missile launches on Russian facilities in Crimea and flew to Romania. UKR fighters escorted

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There are many recon flights today over Black Sea

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... Why 8? Caucasus-2020 has already begun. Russians already without a war lost Su-30, accidentally hit with Su-35 gun, KAMAZ command vehicle and T-90A :) Well done! 

No pain, no gain!

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If seriously, the situation with water in Crimea is becoming more critical day by day, so the "threat window" for us can be longer than time of maneuvers, for example until new US president takes office. 

Sounds like the plot to Mad Max: Fury Road.

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Todays US/UK activity spotted not only over Ukraine, but also near Balarus and Georgia.

Russia moved to Belarus additional forces of VDV for maneuvers - BTG in 900 men crossed the border recently. While three B-52H were busy over Ukraine, the forth approached to Belarus borders or Kaliningrad oblast of Russia from the Poland airspace, simulated launches and turned back

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Over Georgia US jet CL-600 Artemis not only passed along the Russia border, but entered in airspace over occupied Abkhazia (the Abkhazia-Georgia border is marked by bright red line)

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Cold war 2.0

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On 9/21/2020 at 3:20 PM, Haiduk said:

Crimean experts say the peninsula have the reserve of water about to December when current limits of supply will keep and wasn't significant rains. If Russia couldn't open the canal with diplomacy, they will do it with a weapon. Else water defficite will hit Russian military and industry too. This can happen in this year or in the next. We must be on alert.

Or this is a part of a scaremongering campaign that happens every year and with every exercise. Remember the times where the land bridge was being justified with the impossibility of building a normal bridge into Crimea? Or by impossibility to supplying the peninsular with electric power?

Incidentally the parts of Crimea with the most Russian interest (tourism, military) are the ones in the southern coastal area and not the central/northern Tatar populated plains most affected by water shortages.

But I would suggest that we avoid really going to deep here as this may, ehem, turn political, so we can agree to disagree.

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Todays US/UK activity spotted not only over Ukraine, but also near Balarus and Georgia.

Russia moved to Belarus additional forces of VDV for maneuvers - BTG in 900 men crossed the border recently. While three B-52H were busy over Ukraine, the forth approached to Belarus borders or Kaliningrad oblast of Russia from the Poland airspace, simulated launches and turned back

EimBIEDXsAUsL_E?format=jpg&name=large

Over Georgia US jet CL-600 Artemis not only passed along the Russia border, but entered in airspace over occupied Abkhazia (the Abkhazia-Georgia border is marked by bright red line)

Eimy_EJXcAIUjaF?format=jpg&name=large

Cold war 2.0

Considering early Russian posturing around the Belorussian crisis it concerns me significantly more than the Kavkaz-2020/Crimea story.

For context this was the first time 12th GUMO has been seen exercising together with Iskander units, amongst other things (ie the Tu160 flights)

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Saw 2 B52's heading home as I was working in the garden, lovely clear day this afternoon very good view, pity I didn't get a snap of them.

Wonder where they had been today...

Still quite in UK news about the increased flights, but Covid cases are soaring and economy diving, Brexit no deal likely and I guess America election more news worthy. 

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1 hour ago, Holien said:

Saw 2 B52's heading home as I was working in the garden, lovely clear day this afternoon very good view, pity I didn't get a snap of them.

Wonder where they had been today...

Poland and Baltic states. Four B-52 were in the sky.

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58 minutes ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:

So 1st October today,

can we start new thread Will Russia Attack Ukraine in October?

I am sure you will find another former US general ready to give us some warnings...

...must've been those unarmed B-52 lumbering around in ones and twos that saved the day 🙄🙄

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19 hours ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:

I am sure you will find another former US general ready to give us some warnings...

This topic should be just names "Will Russia attack Ukraine?" and all. 

Before 2014 Ukrainian high-ranked militaries just laughed and weaved off, when some politics told them about Russian threat: "The war with Russia? Man, are you crazy? This is impossible! We are all finished the same Soviet military academies!" Well...  2014 came. 

You now, all this B-52 in the Ukrainian skies, British papratroopers in steppes, NATO ships in Black Sea and many other movements from the side of US and UK - all this need many efforts, many resourses, many money. So, US intelligence, not only "retired general", really had the information, the threat of possible Russian attack was enough probable to start all this demonstrations. 

But as I told, this is not a final. Situation with a water in Crimea will be just worth week by week, month by month. So, probability of Russian "crusade for water" still high. This Ocober, next October etc, no matter. All Russian military activities are showing they preparing to big war and their hand will not shake if all diplomacy efforts to force Ukraine to open the canal and take Donbas back on Russian conditions will fail

Edited by Haiduk
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"Will Russia Attack Ukraine in September?"

Apparently not.  :rolleyes:

PS - Re: Crimea.  I don't know if you are aware, but we Brits got into a bit of a squabble over the Crimea the 1850s.....Strangely it was Russians that we were fighting, all the way back then.  Their clandestine occupation of Ukrainian territory has clearly been underway for some time.  ;)

Edited by Sgt.Squarehead
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17 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

I don't know if you are aware, but we Brits got into a bit of a squabble over the Crimea the 1850s.....

The hystory has a trend to develop in a spiral %)

In that times not only Crimea was under Russian Empire rule, but also for example Poland and Finland %) 

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29 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

I don't know if you are aware, but we Brits got into a bit of a squabble over the Crimea the 1850s.....Strangely it was Russians that we were fighting, all the way back then.  Their clandestine occupation of Ukrainian territory has clearly been underway for some time.  ;)

To continue that thought. The highest award of the British Commonwealth - the Victoria Cross - was introduced to honor valour during the Crimean War.

The metal used to create the original Victoria Cross medals was from Russian cannons captured at the Siege of Sevastopol. There has been some dispute about the metal origin, especially with later-era VC's, but nonetheless.

I personally know of another example where Russian trophy cannons from the Crimean War show up - a monument to Sir John MacDonald in Kingston, Canada features a pair of cannons on pedestals with the Russian Imperial double-headed eagles cast into the cannons. 

Tells you something about the significance of that war.

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