Holien Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 A saying from the UK is that "Possession is 9/10ths of the law" I wonder how long that will last based upon past performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 9, 2020 Share Posted September 9, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said: So there is water you just simply blocked it? How heroic, Slava Ukraine! Russia is recognized by Ukraine and international community as agressor and occupant of Crimea. According to Geneva Convention of 1949 all responsibility for population supply on occupied territory lies on the state-occupant. Malta, for example, almost hasn't own water, it imported from outside. Russia has grabed Crimea? Well, let now carry the water in the buckets through their bridge - this is already not our problem. Only so impudent state like Russia can grab foreign territory and think that country victim of agression must continue to supply occupied territory as if nothing happened! Crimea will receive the water only after it will turn back to Ukraine. Else, if Russia will not solve this problem, Crimea turned out into steppe desert like it was before 1954. But Russia can't do that. Pro-Russian Crimean said in 2014 "What further? Let even rocks from the heaven! We are in Russia now!" Ok. Rocks switched on. Edited September 9, 2020 by Haiduk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikalugin Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Blocking water supply and/or electric power is not the way to win hearts and minds of the Crimean people though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 Only 2.5 weeks to go. Putin better get a move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 11, 2020 Share Posted September 11, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, ikalugin said: Blocking water supply and/or electric power is not the way to win hearts and minds of the Crimean people though. Pro-Ukrainian Crimeans vote against any supply of occupied territory. They say "we will be endure this, because lack of water creates a problems for occupants and this is a tough lever on the Kremlin". Hearts and minds of rest Crimeans in last year significantly swings may be not to Ukraine side, but brightly against Russia. Not a secret, many of Crimeans thought in 2014 that Russia would give them Moscow-level salaries and pensions and their cost of life would be the same cheap like in Ukraine. But 2014 "honey year" gone. What Crimeans really got? Because of sanctions no international tourism, no normal banking system (even Russian banks didn't oiperate). Russia substitutes local officials to Russians, mass migration (+500-800K) created heavy pressure on medicine, education, traffic etc, medicine in deep crisis (there is no enough medics because of small salary), Russian force structures and reach businessmen restrict access to the beaches, which were for common use in Ukraine, cutting off them with tall fences and barbed wire. Reach Russians is grabbing the seacost and build there own villas or hotels with closed territory. Mass building througout all Crimea, which destroy local unique nature and cause additional problems with water, when objects break underground water horizons. Russians, which migrated to Crimea are very impude and treat the locals from above, which creat tensions. Especially with Caucasians. Crimean cities and nature locations littered with garbage, which throw "new Crimeans" and tourists. The water crisis in this summer much more shifted locals against Russia and local "authorities". They blame Russia that six years gone and authorities didn't do anything to solve the problem. Locals, sometime even those, who voted for Russia, already with nostalgia recall Ukrainian times, but this no matter. Crimea needs for Russia only like military base and like place for villas and palaces for "elite". Against "hearts and minds changes" Russia always has OMON and RosGuardia. The water is critical for Russian military facilities and industry, and in first place water resorses are directing exacly there, not for the population. So, water blocade will be continue. But back again to the topic theme. Crimean leader and Kremlin puppet Aksionov made statement today that Ukrainian water blocade is "ecocide" and "punishment of Crimeans for those free (really? ahah!) choise in 2014". He also said the blocade is an act of state terror, initiators of blocade must be prosecuted by Russian justice and threated them with "international tribunal". The same Aksionov only month ago claimed "Crimea has enough resourses and does not need poisoned Dnieper water" On the last week UN made a statement on Crimean complaint about water problem and pointed that Russia is responsible for water supply. But words of Ksionov has hidden threat. Russia can juridically blame Ukraine in state terrorism and use this as occasion to put ultimatum "give the water or we will take it by force" Edited September 11, 2020 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 (edited) US B-52s from this time will be fly in Ukrainian airspace permanently like a means of deterring of Russian agression on southern direction - UKR AirForces Command today said. Three B-52H took off from the airbase in UK, entered in Ukrainian airspace, passed near Kyiv and turned to the Crimea direction. Ukrainian Su-27 fighters escorted them. After some maneuvers, B-52 refueled from three KC-135 over Black Sea. Per two RAF R.1 Sentiel and C-130J also conducted support mission along Crimea coast. Edited September 14, 2020 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted September 14, 2020 Share Posted September 14, 2020 They flew over our house, wondered where they were going... Nice to send some friends a bit of support, I guess we will see more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 15, 2020 Share Posted September 15, 2020 Today's mission - as I know in first time RAF E-3D Sentry AEW.1 near Crimea. Also RAF RC-135W, R.1 Sentiel, Voyajer and two C-130J paricipated. From US side were RC-135W and P-8A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 (edited) @Haiduk how sensible/feasible is a RUS amphibious attack towards Melitopol, and then seperately into Kherson? I don't know the terrain, UKR force dispositions or geographical obstacles, but it would look like a good move - use combat on the Donbas frontline to suck in UKR units, then strike behind at Melitopol. Then strike into Kherson; isolate and bombard all units between Melitopol and Kherson. No need to unite Donbass and this new bite,but use the two zones to force a retreat of UKR line to the Dniper. Ahhh, fantasy pipe dreams.... Edited September 20, 2020 by kinophile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMS Posted September 20, 2020 Share Posted September 20, 2020 (edited) On 9/9/2020 at 9:45 PM, Haiduk said: Russia is recognized by Ukraine and international community as agressor and occupant of Crimea. According to Geneva Convention of 1949 all responsibility for population supply on occupied territory lies on the state-occupant. Malta, for example, almost hasn't own water, it imported from outside. Russia has grabed Crimea? Well, let now carry the water in the buckets through their bridge - this is already not our problem. Only so impudent state like Russia can grab foreign territory and think that country victim of agression must continue to supply occupied territory as if nothing happened! Crimea will receive the water only after it will turn back to Ukraine. Else, if Russia will not solve this problem, Crimea turned out into steppe desert like it was before 1954. But Russia can't do that. Pro-Russian Crimean said in 2014 "What further? Let even rocks from the heaven! We are in Russia now!" Ok. Rocks switched on. So this warmonger rhetoric is still popular in the Ukraine. I hoped that Ukrainians have woken up after this 6 years. Bad... Edited September 20, 2020 by DMS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 16 hours ago, DMS said: I hoped that Ukrainians have woken up after this 6 years. Bad... Woken from what? This is position of any healthy nation. You occupied our territories. Should we give up, recognized it, forgive occupants and supply as if nothing happened? Don't hold your breath. If China will grab part of Syberia, will you also say about "let make peace, stop warmonger rhetoric"? Yes, there are many indifferent middlebrows in our society, which have "who cares?" life position and will be agree on "peace for any cost". But even the third part of society, which ready to withstand Russia and Russian influence narratives about "compromisses and concessions for peace" will be enough to prevent current authorities from fatal steps. Not middlebrows make a history, it make active patriotic part, so I calm for Crimea supply or Donbas. Any step to sign agreements on Russian conditions and ultimatums, will summon street reaction immediately. There is a good story about indiferent citizen of Donetsk. When all this was starting he said "Who cares who's flag over the city? I have a car service business. Everybody need to repair own cars. If Russians come I will get paymnet in Rubles, if Chineese - they will pay in Yuans". Оk. Russia came. Russian Caucasian fighters came, directed guns on him and said "Get out! Your service station and your car now is our!". Middlebrows always can do wrong choise on elections for their calm life in "who cares" style. Authorities can make wrong or betrayal decisions, covering behind "this is what most of people want". But active part also always can fix their mistakes in order the story with Donetsk businessman will not repeat somewhere in other part of Ukraine and Ukraine still Ukraine, not Malorossia, URSR 2.0 of South-Western Federal district. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikalugin Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 @HaidukI am familiar with the Ukrainian narratives on the Crimea. Still, Kavkaz-2020 began, no invasion so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikalugin Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 On 9/14/2020 at 8:47 PM, Haiduk said: US B-52s from this time will be fly in Ukrainian airspace permanently like a means of deterring of Russian agression on southern direction - UKR AirForces Command today said. Three B-52H took off from the airbase in UK, entered in Ukrainian airspace, passed near Kyiv and turned to the Crimea direction. Ukrainian Su-27 fighters escorted them. After some maneuvers, B-52 refueled from three KC-135 over Black Sea. Per two RAF R.1 Sentiel and C-130J also conducted support mission along Crimea coast. It is more likely to be related to Russian posturing due to the Belorussian crisis. It is now happening in mutual cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 (edited) On 9/20/2020 at 5:17 AM, kinophile said: @Haiduk how sensible/feasible is a RUS amphibious attack towards Melitopol, and then seperately into Kherson? I don't know the terrain, UKR force dispositions or geographical obstacles, but it would look like a good move - use combat on the Donbas frontline to suck in UKR units, then strike behind at Melitopol. Then strike into Kherson; isolate and bombard all units between Melitopol and Kherson. No need to unite Donbass and this new bite,but use the two zones to force a retreat of UKR line to the Dniper. Sea of Azov is too shallow for large-scale amphibious operations. Also part of coastline covered with minefields, number of which can be increased. Russian landing forces will enconter with needs of forcing several small rivers on the way to Melitopol. So, if such actions can take place, that only like Spetsnaz infiltration or as distractive maneuver. The same about Kherson. In Black Sea Russian landing capabilities is more sifnificant, but here we must fefine what objectives will pursuit the invader. To take the canal, gate, pump station, powerplant and establish security zone - is a one number of forces, to take Kherson, Melitopol and connect Crimean peninsula with DNR and Russis - is other. Russia will need fast result - the water, I doubt they will try large occupation scenario. About terrain I wrote in one of the previous posts. Meanwhile, before Russian Caucasus-2020 maneuvers, the cavalry has arrived - 450 UK paratroopers from 16th air-assault brigade were dropped from C-130J over Kherson region. This is largest Britain airborne operation for dozen years. Edited September 21, 2020 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, ikalugin said: @HaidukI am familiar with the Ukrainian narratives on the Crimea. Still, Kavkaz-2020 began, no invasion so far Crimean experts say the peninsula have the reserve of water about to December when current limits of supply will keep and wasn't significant rains. If Russia couldn't open the canal with diplomacy, they will do it with a weapon. Else water defficite will hit Russian military and industry too. This can happen in this year or in the next. We must be on alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMS Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 4 hours ago, Haiduk said: Woken from what? This is position of any healthy nation. You occupied our territories. Should we give up, recognized it, forgive occupants and supply as if nothing happened? Don't hold your breath. If China will grab part of Syberia, will you also say about "let make peace, stop warmonger rhetoric"? "Healthy nation", OMG. There is no "nation", there are oligarchs and working people. They are not the same "nation" with common interests. Rent grows, salary drops, but you should carry on, we are in war with Russia! (Or with aggressive NATO block, here) Meanwhile Russian businessmen sell goods to Ukraine and Ukrainian to Russia. No Ukrainian companies were nationalised in Russia and no Russian companies were nationalised in Ukraine. Business goes as usual. But war should be continued to get new credits and to force people to obey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, DMS said: There is no "nation", there are oligarchs and working people Ahah, man, you stuck in naphthalene ideology, though agressive leftists is trying now to reanimate it in one country. Modern world now is more diverse, globalized and сomplicated and the wars now conducting not so directly, like in times of Karl Marx with his "two clssses". I have own micro-business. Am I oligarch (burgeois ahah) or proletarian-"working people", which nothing to loss except own chains? Edited September 21, 2020 by Haiduk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 First day of Caucasus-2020 maneuvers was pointed with increased activity of NATO recon flights. Eight planes conducted own tasks over Black Sea: - US forces: two RC-135U/W, CL-600 with Artemis system, EP-3E, P-8A, MQ-9 - UK forces: R.1 Sentiel. RC-135W Also as minimum one Ukrainian strike UAV Bayraktar TB.2 was spotted in the sky over Kherson region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 Wow. Brits in Ukraine. Time for a CMBS update! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wicky Posted September 21, 2020 Share Posted September 21, 2020 8 hours ago, Haiduk said: 16th air-assault brigade Heard them practicing just beforehand over at the ranges and saw them ship out from Colchester Spetsnaz caught red-handed = Pudsey bear ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMS Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) 18 hours ago, Haiduk said: Ahah, man, you stuck in naphthalene ideology, though agressive leftists is trying now to reanimate it in one country. Modern world now is more diverse, globalized and сomplicated and the wars now conducting not so directly, like in times of Karl Marx with his "two clssses". I have own micro-business. Am I oligarch (burgeois ahah) or proletarian-"working people", which nothing to loss except own chains? And nationalism is not naphthalene ideology from 19 century. People should just follow their interests, not being agitated by media or anyone else. If RPK-74 exists, are there no machine guns and no assault rifles, is everything diverse and complicated? No, just an intermediate form. Edited September 22, 2020 by DMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 4 hours ago, DMS said: People should just follow their interests Like that guy from Donetsk car service? We lost Crimea and part of Donbas not because there were most pro-Russian people, but because there were most of "indifferent middlebrows" , which thought they would follow own interests and nothing change for them. Defense of own territory, own culture etc is not nationalism. It is healty reaction of organism, which names "the state". The states like authorities and (or) societies, which havn't a will to resist the inner or outer threats very soon can loss own identity if their neighbours have expansionistic plans and imperial phantom pains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erwin Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 8 days left for the attack. Any logistics movements that would indicate preparations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wicky Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 (edited) Some more pics taken during the exercise - funnily enough shot by army photographer Danny I know from cricket! Edited September 22, 2020 by Wicky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted September 22, 2020 Share Posted September 22, 2020 Well that explains why we have seen those flying around here training. I guess what would a Republican presidency be without a war. I wonder how he will square it with his Russian pals. If life was not boring enough for folk let's have a military crisis to add to the excitement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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