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Will Russia Attack Ukraine in September?


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Well, according to former US General Ben Hodges. Thats not impossible. They have a window there, he says. Together with the massive Russian exersice, Kavkaz 2020 (Caucasus 2020) together with  the blaime of water shortage in Crimea, as a masikirovka. And US elections, together with corona crisis. 

 

Interveiw Vith Ben Hodges

 

 https://informnapalm.org/en/ben-hodges-if-kremlin-will-move/

 

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No thanks, very informative and interesting as far as I'm concerned.

Russia is recognized by Ukraine and international community as agressor and occupant of Crimea. According to Geneva Convention of 1949 all responsibility for population supply on occupied territo

Woken from what? This is position of any healthy nation. You occupied our territories. Should we give up, recognized it, forgive occupants and supply as if nothing happened?  Don't hold your breath. I

This is a third warning during three months from different sources. Water crisis in Crimea will buid up very quickly. Most of Crimean water reservoirs already dried out by 50-70 %. From Russia to Crimea also already moved about  500 000 of settlers, that creates additional water resourse load. But for Russia is no matter to problems of local civilians - only one is important - stable and sufficient water supply on military units. Currently their supply is mostly normal, but who knows, what will be through the year, if the winter will be again without snow and too few rains in other seasons?   

Ukraine now is moving additional units to the South, also during the Caucasus-2020 will be conducted large Ukrainian maneuvers with participation of NATO units.

Edited by Haiduk
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11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is a third warning during three months from different sources. Water crisis in Crimea will buid up very quickly. Most of Crimean water reservoirs already dried out by 50-70 %. From Russia to Crimea also already moved about  500 000 of settlers, that creates additional water resourse load. But for Russia is no matter to problems of local civilians - only one is important - stable and sufficient water supply on military units. Currently their supply is mostly normal, but who knows, what will be through the year, if the winter will be again without snow and too few rains in other seasons?   

Ukraine now is moving additional units to the South, also during the Caucasus-2020 will be conducted large Ukrainian maneuvers with participation of NATO units.

Can't water be trained in via tankers? - I thought that was part of the idea behind building the rail/road bridge to make logistics easier. Probably it'll cost a tad more to import and be prioritised, rather than used on agriculture.  I see there's a canal but that's been cut off, and Russians are happy to throw rubles at the problem. North Crimean Canal  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-36013263

North Crimean Canal / Kherson, Oblast (province)- Would that be an obvious target for land grab?

Nord-Krim-Kanal.png?v=638909dcd4fd199fdb

 

Edited by Wicky
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https://jamestown.org/program/pro-russian-disinformation-operations-in-kherson-a-new-old-challenge-for-ukraines-national-security/

June 29, 2020 - On June 5, Serhiy Nayev, the commander of the Operational Command East of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, reported that the military and law enforcement agencies have strengthened the protection of critical infrastructure in the Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts to meet a possible Russian invasion. Primarily, the efforts included fortifying the security and defense capabilities of local water-supply infrastructure objects (such as the North Crimean Canal). In addition, the authorities implemented multiple counter-sabotage and counter-terrorism measures (Ukrinform.ua, June 5). At the same time, some of this new military equipment and additional personnel were spotted on the territory of the Henicheskyi district, along the Sea of Azov (Vizit.ks.ua, June 5).

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On 7/23/2020 at 10:56 AM, Wicky said:

Can't water be trained in via tankers?

No. Neither tankers nor even by the pipes through the bridge. Russian Kuban' region beyond the Kerch Strait hasn't enough water resourses to supply additionaly Crimea. In first years Russian administration of Crimea drilled many artesian wells, but large consumption quickly degrades theses wells and the place of fresh-water occupies sea water - this leads to soil salinization. 

Relatively better situation with water only in south Crimea, were the springs and rivers in the mountains, but growing migration and military bases will demand more and more water.  Crimea peninsula is returning to the same condition, which was before Northern-Dnieper channel building - this will be again saline-steppes or half-deserts in the northern and eastern parts. 

Russians tried to throw discussion about water for Crimea in Ukraininan society, including through several media-figures of "People's servant" party, as if "we must give a water to our Ukrainian people in Crimea" and "we must prevent ecological disaster of our Crimea", but even the tips that we can give the water to ther Crimea summoned the storm in social networks, so this question luckily doesn't have the continue. For now. 

On 7/23/2020 at 10:56 AM, Wicky said:

North Crimean Canal / Kherson, Oblast (province)- Would that be an obvious target for land grab?

Yes. But it need to consider, many channel sections already out of service. Locals are looting large concrete plates of the chanel, the watercourse overgrown with bushes and trees for 6 years in many sections. Russians need to repair occupied section of the channel in order to the water could pass. So if they wil start any works - this will be first sign "the attack is coming". Though, they can attack first and then to start repair, as if "locals had several years of problems, so they can be patient one year more".

Russian primary targets will be the сhannel gate near the Chervonyi Chaban village, which closes the water flow to Crimea, then the pump facility in Nova Kakhovka town, which serve the water in the channel and and Kakhovla hydroelectric power plant in the same town as well as the dam. Their secondary target can be some "security zone" that Ukrainian artillery couldn't hit electric plant, else the pumps will not be able to work. Also they should to secure or more probably just block the bridges through the Dnieper near Kherson. Though the area of Kherson oblast between Crimea and Kakhovka resorvoir is hard for fast advance of large number of armor, because there are many irrigation canals, limiting the maneuvers. Russians will be forced to break through along three roads, heading to Nova Kakhovka and Kakhovka towns. Crimea garrison hasn't enough forces to coplete this task, so air-assault units must be moved to Crimea first.

    zem3-e1594734604730.jpg

zem0-e1594734570686.jpg

Edited by Haiduk
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This would make a superb mission pack. New and Unique situation (for now...give it 5 years and this type of strategic concern will be way more prevalent...).

That's interesting, how infrastructure improvement could be a harbinger of an attack. Although, as you note, it would make sense (given Russia's somewhat limited resources in the area?) to hold off construction or attack until absolutely necessary.

Conditions driving that threshold could be increasing civilian unrest in Crimea due to water issues, although realistically the Govt will only truly care when the military starts to get affected.

But it could an easy Blame Game to generate, to take the unrest (caused by local Govt incompetence) and blame it on UKR, "necessitating" local correction of the situation.

Nothing particularly Russian about such a move, of course. All Govt's are bastards to some degree :).

Edited by kinophile
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  • 4 weeks later...

Anything is of course possible, but the water supply issues in Crimea is IMHO way down the list of priorities for Moscow. The Donbas War has been out of the headlines for 5 years now and the Kremlin wants to keep it that way.

The highest priority for Moscow in Europe seems to be finishing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project which will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine and supply Western Europe with natural gas directly without having to worry about Ukrainian “transit fees” or potential gas slow down or shut down. The U.S., in a rare display of bi-partisan unity, have been putting in place potentially crippling sanctions to try to stop it, but Merkel, German politicians and many EU governments want the pipeline finished so they can get cheap Russian gas. The Kremlin will not do anything, like another war, that could put the project in jeopardy.

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14 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

German politicians and many EU governments want the pipeline finished so they can get cheap Russian gas. The Kremlin will not do anything, like another war, that could put the project in jeopardy.

Good assessment.  After Europe is dependent on Russian gas, it will be much easier to simply walk into western NATO nations like Baltics etc.

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Will they send little green men through the pipelines? Jokes aside, it's not like Russia is the only gas supplier in the world.
Of course the USA would like Europe to buy their gas, preferably. I'm happy Merkel stays strong so far on this subject.

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On 8/23/2020 at 4:20 PM, Erwin said:

Good assessment.  After Europe is dependent on Russian gas, it will be much easier to simply walk into western NATO nations like Baltics etc.

Cost reduction after cost reduction, I am not even sure that the western europe NATO nations have the necessary air/naval/land forces to counter anything (before or after the pipeline).

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1 minute ago, ncc1701e said:

Cost reduction after cost reduction, I am not even sure that the western europe NATO nations have the necessary air/naval/land forces to counter anything (before or after the pipeline).

Probbably not, but!! Russia needs money! And with Nord Stream 2, in place. And a year of constant delivery of gas, from it! Parts of Europe, will be addicted to it! Then, its a walk in the park. To take the Baltic states. Germany need´s the gas, and if they do anything? They are out of gas?

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On 8/23/2020 at 2:21 AM, Sgt Joch said:

Anything is of course possible, 

The highest priority for Moscow in Europe seems to be finishing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project which will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine and supply Western Europe with natural gas directly without having to worry about Ukrainian “transit fees” or potential gas slow down or shut down. The Kremlin will not do anything, like another war, that could put the project in jeopardy.

The war for water can happen not exactly in this year, but water problem will become acute soon and will demand to resolve it. Political decision about water supply of Ukrainain authorities, even they would want it, even they would give up to Kremlin pressure and promises is completely impossible because it will be sign their death and maybe even in direct sense. 

Russia signed an agreeement, which obliged it to pump some volume of gas through Ukrainian pipe, so even NS2 will be finished, they can't simply cut off Ukraine without reaction of EU. But NS2 is more political lever, than source of income. Russian Gazprom is sustaining huge losses because faling prices on the gas and because of shrinking of markets (China rejected from gas supply by Syberia Force pipeline, US and Quatar are pushing off Russia from Europe).

Meanwhile in Simferopol, largest city and administrative center of Crimea the water supply is limited, the water gives on schedule. Several weeks ago Russian troops merged two water reservoirs to move water from one to other for Simferopol purposes, but this is wasn't help, the reservoir, supplying the city now has only 7 mln. cubic meters of water instead 36 as normal.

 

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7 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Until Russia does...  ;)

 

And then confirmation bias kicks in which lines up all interventions in one convenient line up without looking into the unique circumstances of each.

We don't even need to go far - there was the discussion about how Russia would remove Lukashenko pre-elections based on his arrests of PMC servicemen in transit. Or how Russia would send combat troops to help him now under the CSTO umbrella, based on the idea that Russia must always act militarily.
But then there were Kyrgyzia and Armenia and their stories get forgotten because they do not fit the pattern.

Edited by ikalugin
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LOL.  Under that logic, Mexico should invade Southern California & border states to liberate the large % of Mexican/Spanish Speakers living there. 

Of course that's how the US annexed large parts of Mexico into the US.  So, "everybody does it" I suppose.  

220px-Mexico_1824_%28equirectangular_pro

 
Mexico in 1824 with the boundary line with the U.S. from the 1818 Adams-Onis Treaty that Spain negotiated with the U.S.
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  • 2 weeks later...

Probably NATO demonstration before Russian maneuvers. First time three B-52 (the third didn't switch on own transponder) in the Ukrainian airspace operated in the area of Crimean peninsula and Kakhovske water reservoir. RAF Typhoon fighters maintained cover. Also UK Sentiel R.1 and US RC-135 had recon flights over Black Sea

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Upd. Three B-52 over Ukraine, escorted by Su-27

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Edited by Haiduk
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Meanwhile, in Simferopol water reservoir only 18% of water left. Attempt to pump the water in this reservoir from two other from Eastern Crimea gave only temporary effect. Consumption of water anyway exceed the filling. In Simferopol tough limitation of water supply inroduced - only at three hours in the morning and at three hours in the evening. In many districts the water has brown dirty color - because of low level of the water, the pumps suck the mud and this dirty water transfers without filtering because filters for proper work need many additional water - in the conditions of limitations its not clean as it need. 

Russian pipeline units are now conducting next desperate step to maintain the main Crimean city with water - they made artifical dam on the Biyuk-Karasu river and pump the water from it to Simferopol water reservoir. But with this they simultainnously reducing the water resourses for Eastern Crimea cities Feodosia and Sudak

Artifical dam:

 f696dcfb-eaee-4fc6-a225-3f34d1e17246_cx3

Here the water of this river for Simferopol

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And here in blocked part of the river for Eastern Crimea

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Edited by Haiduk
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Interesting as haven't seen this reported elsewhere.  Wars are usually about economics and resources.  Putin and advisors are probably discussing what effect a new attack to acquire water would have either pre or post US election.  :ph34r:

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...The look on Northern-Crimean canal on Ukr-controlled territory before the gate

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... The gate

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... and further Crimean parts of the canal

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Somewhere it concrete plates alreadey looted by locals

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Edited by Haiduk
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