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THE PANDEMIC CHAT ROOM


Erwin

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Also, on the bright side, not only are the symptoms mild in most middle aged and younger people but even some of the elderly are able to recover.  I copied the below from a news article:

A great-great-grandma from Washington who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19 is showing the world what strength really means as she continues to fight off the infectious illness — and win.  At 90-years-old, Geneva Wood is not letting anything stop her from living life with her five kids, 11 grandchildren, 12 great-grandchildren, and three great-great-grandchildren, according to a feature in Seattle Refined written by her granddaughter-in-law, Kate Neidigh.

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Kind of a funny thing. 🤣 I live in a place where beer is only sold in government regulated facilities. The local media makes this statement "In 24 hours the following non essential services will be closed indefinitely: Beauty Salons, Gym facilities, nail salons, Agency Liquor Stores...."  Lol. everyone was like whuttt??? The proverbial facebook twitter switchboard lit up, phones were messaging hey no beer in 24 hours. So of course everyone lines up, and I mean all at once. All quite civil, nobody hoarded, very polite "oh you take the last case of Keiths, oh no sir you may have it"... you know Canadians. Two days later our local Government medical spokes person apologized for not appropriately estimating the public's response to the closure. I guess that will make the after action report.

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2 hours ago, MOS:96B2P said:

Also, on the bright side, not only are the symptoms mild in most middle aged and younger people but even some of the elderly are able to recover.  I copied the below from a news article:

A great-great-grandma from Washington who was recently diagnosed with COVID-19 is showing the world what strength really means as she continues to fight off the infectious illness — and win.  At 90-years-old, Geneva Wood is not letting anything stop her from living life with her five kids, 11 grandchildren, 12 great-grandchildren, and three great-great-grandchildren, according to a feature in Seattle Refined written by her granddaughter-in-law, Kate Neidigh.

Well done, lady. 

My relative is 91 and going out into the death zone every few days to see if there is anything she can buy.  She was planning a solo trip to the Baltics until flights were cancelled, but, still has her ticket as she's still hoping she can go in May.  She is good shape for her age and does not seem threatened.  I think she figures that the current data is too small to determine how many may die due to the coronavirus vs how many would die regardless due to other causes - especially among the "at risk" population.  For example, if people stay off the roads that could reduce deaths by up to 36,000.

In addition, when people talk about the potential of deaths due to the virus, nobody has been calculating how many deaths will occur if the pandemic is drawn out over many months (or even years) and the economy implodes, and/or water and food distribution systems are "degraded".  Cities like Los Angeles with massive populations and a vulnerable water supply plus very few major escape routes could easily become death traps.

If you have medical issues, of course you need to take precautions.  But for most healthy people all this hysteria and lifestyle changes are causing more problems.

 

Edited by Erwin
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1 hour ago, Erwin said:

Well done, lady. 

My relative is 91 ...

 

I saw an article the other day where a 103 year old Iranian woman recovered.

Also, just wanted to give a shout out to the unsung heroes of this pandemic: https://ifpnews.com/iranian-doctor-fights-corona-until-her-last-breath

So many people giving it everything they have out there. Can't forget them.

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Not a good ad for the protective abilities of a mask, then.  Poor lady... 

At least she is free from the tyranny of the Burka.  My wife was on business in ME and had to wear a burka in certain places.  She absolutely hated it plus detested the reasons she and the other women were forced to wear em.

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7 hours ago, Erwin said:

Cities like Los Angeles with massive populations and a vulnerable water supply plus very few major escape routes could easily become death traps.

If you have medical issues, of course you need to take precautions.  But for most healthy people all this hysteria and lifestyle changes are causing more problems.

 

What do you mean by a vulnerable water supply?  Vulnerable to what? The pandemic will be drawn out over months, years not so much.  They do burn out, it is statistically the nature.  The point is even if you don't reduce the overall numbers infected, if you draw out the rate you lower the mortality rate as your healthcare systems have a chance to keep pace.  Right now we are still learning.  Hence the panic and probable over reacting.  I think we are learning fast and may adjust our reaction based on real data. Wouldn't that be something.. :P  

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9 hours ago, nik mond said:

Bill the Prophet (2015)  

Actually wasn't too hard to predict just not a concern at the time.

“Most experts believe that it is not a question of whether there will be another severe influenza pandemic, but when.”

(The UK Government’s Chief Medical Officer, 2002)


“Wherever in the world a flu pandemic starts, perhaps with its epicentre in the Far East, we must assume we will be unable to prevent it reaching the UK. When it does, its impact will be severe in the number of illnesses and the disruption to everyday life. The steps we are setting out today will help us to reduce the disease's impact on our population.”
(Sir Liam Donaldson, UK Chief Medical Officer, 1 March 2005)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic  > 2018

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/crimson-contagion-exercise-trump-administration-failures_n_5e744105c5b6eab7794560e6 > 2019

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/488069-obama-officials-walked-trump-aides-through-global-pandemic-exercise-in-2017 > 2017

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I can't confirm any of the above, I'm sorry.

Although I understand that the "British" didn't issue any kind of warning against the Armada. As the Welsh couldn't give a monkey's about what happened to their English oppressors, and Jimmy the Six was too busy buggering his chums north of the border.

As for 1940. I'm just glad that "Paddy" got home from Dunkirk safely. I never knew his opinion about tea. But he liked to put Guinness in his Christmas pud recipe.

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4 minutes ago, Warts 'n' all said:

I can't confirm any of the above, I'm sorry.

Although I understand that the "British" didn't issue any kind of warning against the Armada. As the Welsh couldn't give a monkey's about what happened to their English oppressors, and Jimmy the Six was too busy buggering his chums north of the border.

As for 1940. I'm just glad that "Paddy" got home from Dunkirk safely. I never knew his opinion about tea. But he liked to put Guinness in his Christmas pud recipe.

Then it must be a shocking case of fake news again...🤔

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An interesting article: Link below.

Back in 2015, Bill Gates published an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) warning that the world would likely see a pandemic in the next 20 years. He was writing in the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, and argued that while the world had an effective system for containing Ebola, it did not have adequate preparation for dealing with a disease with a substantially higher transmission rate. “[O]f all the things that could kill more than 10 million people around the world, the most likely is an epidemic stemming from either natural causes or bioterrorism.”

https://quillette.com/2020/03/03/dealing-with-a-once-in-a-century-pathogen/

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58 minutes ago, z1812 said:

An interesting article: Link below.

Back in 2015, Bill Gates published an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) warning that the world would likely see a pandemic in the next 20 years. He was writing in the aftermath of the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, and argued that while the world had an effective system for containing Ebola, it did not have adequate preparation for dealing with a disease with a substantially higher transmission rate. “[O]f all the things that could kill more than 10 million people around the world, the most likely is an epidemic stemming from either natural causes or bioterrorism.”

https://quillette.com/2020/03/03/dealing-with-a-once-in-a-century-pathogen/

2015 is also when the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation funded Pirbright Institute began patenting corona virii...for research, etc.

October 18, 2019, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation sponsors Event 201 in NY.

Event 201 was sponsored by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Economic Forum (WEF), the CIA, Bloomberg, John Hopkins Foundation and the UN.  The World Military Games opened in Wuhan on the exact same day.

Strange times we live in...

By the way, where is ole Billy boy right now? I heard he cashed out or something...

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1 hour ago, Liveload said:

Event 201 was sponsored by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Economic Forum (WEF), the CIA, Bloomberg, John Hopkins Foundation and the UN.  The World Military Games opened in Wuhan on the exact same day.

John hopkins university now has a spooky map and counter. They seem to know these statistics Before the local organisations can come up with them...

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

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On 3/20/2020 at 10:16 PM, sburke said:

Learned the hard way that those were not good sources unfortunately.

As far as I can tell there have been very few "good" news sources in the West... lot's of people playing partisan politics or "playing the race card" back in January/February.

Let's also not forget about stuff like this...

 

Still that's all over with now... however, in future, perhaps we all need some kind of apolitical "10th man" who's job it is to take something seriously when (almost) everyone else doesn't.

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The problem has always been "interpretation of data" controversies. 

One can say that currently the death rate is "x"%.  But, if the vast majority of the people dying are from a certain group - ie: those with immune problems like some elderly and those already with serious illnesses, then that "x"% death rate is irrelevant to the population as a whole.  All one can say at present is that for that particularly vulnerable section of society, the death rate is x% if infected

If you are not in that sample group, the death rate is almost certainly going to be completely different (much lower - perhaps no more than the death rate from the annual flu)).  From what I understand, young folks who are normally healthy may not even know that they are infected, let alone get sick, and should have virtually no fear of dying.  

Logically, since young people are likely to not be aware they are virus carriers and need have little fear of dying from it, they should be wiped out (or at least interned) asap to protect the rest of society which is more vulnerable.

 

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