Ukraine purchases/ed Javelin missile system. More to come?

[John Kettler]

As a result of something I saw at the bottom of Page 2 in the declassified transcript of the President's telephone call to Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, I did some digging and found this. If I understood its somewhat tortured phrasing correctly, Ukraine received 37 CLUs and 210 Javelin missiles in 2018 and has some classified quantities of both it's buying this year.

https://en.topwar.ru/162404-minoborony-ukrainy-zajavilo-o-prjamyh-zakupkah-v-ssha-ptrk-javelin.html

The above being the case, what did I mean by more to come? This was stated in that same call, and it's worth quoting what was said, since I believe this passage may refer to a Javelin purchase that is is over and above the already in the mill classified purchase this year to date.

President Zelenskyy

"...We are ready to continue to cooperate for the next steps. Specifically we are almost ready to buy more Javelins from the United States for defense purposes."

That passage suggests to me, but does not necessarily prove, there is another buy in the mill and that Ukraine is getting ready to execute it. There, is, though, the possibility what President Zelensky told President Trump referred to the previously described 2019 classified buy.

Can anyone shed some light on these issues?

Regards,

John Kettler

 

 

[John Kettler]

Just to be on the safe side, I crosschecked the 2018 Javelin missile system sale and learned that not only did it complete wbut that delivery was made before the State Department announcement of the sale!

https://www.rferl.org/a/javelin-missile-delivery-ukraine-us-confirmed/29200588.html

From Radio Free Europe comes further support for my positing that the additional Javelin buy plan which  President Zelenskyy mentioned to President Trump might be in addition to the previously described 2018 sale under FMS of 37 CLUs and 210 missiles, not to mention BST (Basic System Trainer) gear. Bear in mind that President Trumps phone call with President Zelenskyy occurred on July 25, 2019 and the statement by the Ambassador in the below link August 5, 2019. 

https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ambassador-ukraine-asks-to-buy-more-javelin-missiles/30093162.html

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited September 26, 2019 by John Kettler

[ikalugin]

ATGMs were never the Ukrainian Armed Forces weak point in my opinion.

If Ukraine would have to pay for those imported weapons then there may be a problem, because they would be priced in USDs and not Hrivnas while the Ministry for Defense budget seems to stay around the same in nominal Hrivna as it was in 2019, ~102,5bn of the overall MoD budget, out of which ~17bn or ~0,7bn nominal USD seem to be planned for procurement, modernisation and repair of arms.

While 700m USD could allow such procurement, this does seem to account for everything, so I would assume that buying domestic ATGMs may be the more cost effective option. And ofcourse I assume the best case scenario, where the funding is fully allocated and used efficiently.

Edited September 26, 2019 by ikalugin

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Can anyone shed some light on these issues?

I can only say that MoD and Zelenmskyi after elections claimed, they have intend to buy much more foreign weapon systems, including Javelins and even anti-ship missiles. In the end of Poroshenko's cadence, Parliament passed the law, which permits to MoD direct purchases for Army of foreign-produced weapon and equipment. Before it, this was too long and bureaucratic procedure, tied with multiple corruption risks, because such equipment  was possible to buy only through state intermediate companies. 

Javelins for Ukranian army are more psyhological and political question, than real need. Though 210 "fire and forgot" missiles never will be excessie.

Edited September 26, 2019 by Haiduk

[Sgt Joch]

btw, how useful have the Javelins been in practice? When Obama was Pres, there was a lot of hand wringing about whether they should be supplied to Ukraine, but the sale by the Trump admin went largely unreported and there has been little reporting on their use.

[Haiduk]

57 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

btw, how useful have the Javelins been in practice? When Obama was Pres, there was a lot of hand wringing about whether they should be supplied to Ukraine, but the sale by the Trump admin went largely unreported and there has been little reporting on their use.

Javelins are not using in current positional warfare. When US has agreed to supply Javelins, there was a condition - missiles can be used only in case of separatists offensive or direct Russian invasion. In current time all missiles shared among special teams in SOF and air-assault units, but stored out of JFO zone.

In 2018 one or two missiles were launched for demonstration to Poroshenko.

Also Javelins were showed in that year on military parade.

Meanwhile, soldiers were joking on frontline %) 

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, ikalugin said:

If Ukraine would have to pay for those imported weapons

No, this is US military aid program. But Ukraine can pay for next parties if new missiles will not be in the list of this program again

Edited September 26, 2019 by Haiduk

[ikalugin]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

No, this is US military aid program. But Ukraine can pay for next parties if new missiles will not be in the list of this program again

That would work, though I wonder if there are hidden costs, ie with the now common practice of selling something for free but forcing the buyer to go with overpriced maintenance or whatever.

[Erwin]

"Meanwhile, soldiers were joking on frontline %)"

I assumed it was a dummy to confuse/alarm enemy spotters - ike what the Allies did in UK prior to D-Day with lots of dummy units.

[A Canadian Cat]

15 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile, soldiers were joking on frontline %)

LOL that's awesome.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Erwin said:

"Meanwhile, soldiers were joking on frontline %)"

I assumed it was a dummy to confuse/alarm enemy spotters - ike what the Allies did in UK prior to D-Day with lots of dummy units.

Writing with this photo claimed the same - as if separs, when have seen  such "Javelin", abandoned own position immediately, but I think this is also a joke. On the photo soldiers havn't body armor, so I doubt this is forward positions, also such jokes very dangerous - and can cause sniper shot from opposite side.  

Edited September 27, 2019 by Haiduk

[John Kettler]

ikalugin,

Much appreciate this, but could you supply at least a rough translation of the table?

Haiduk,

As ever, thanks for the particular UKR centric info and insights you provide. THe UA put the Javelins just where I would have--in the hands of those who can do the most damage with them, and not necessarily AFVs, either. CPs come to mind, as a case in point. Jammers would be another high leverage target. As for the dummy Javelin in the pic, judging from the helmet, that soldier is SOF, and it's entirely possible real training is being done using a mockup of at least all-up Javelin system service weight. 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[ikalugin]

It is in Ukrainian, so Haiduk could provide a more accurate translation.

So from top to down, nominal today USD (for a rough feel relevant to foreighn procurement in USD) for 2019 and 2020:
- National security and defense council of ukraine 7350000, 1160000000
- Ukrainian MoD 424000000, 4240000000
-- Command and control 27200000, 27200000,
-- Day to day activities, training, medical, veteran affairs 3440000000, 3470000000
-- procurement, modernisation and repair of equipment 702000000, 702000000
-- Housing 34700000, 34400000
-- Scrapping of ammo and arms, maintenance of warehouses 63000000, 63000000
- Special transport service 33100000, 38600000
- Military intelligence service 118000000, 118000000
- Ministry of internal affairs 3440000000, 3470000000
-- National guard 512000000, 514000000
-- EMRCOM 570000000, 573000000
-- Border guards 447000000, 449000000
-- Police 1220000000, 122000000
- Internal/counter intelligence service 399000000, 400000000
- External intelligence service 83700000, 83700000
- Secure communications and informational security service 121000000, 121000000
- VIP security service 55500000, 55500000
Note that Hrivna does appear undervalued and that wages in Ukraine are low, so the purchasing power of those funds in Ukraine may be higher than indicated by their nominal USD value.
 

Edited September 29, 2019 by ikalugin

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, ikalugin said:

- National security and defense council of ukraine 7350000, 1160000000

Such big differense between 2019 funding and 2020 budget project because of this money can be redirected by NSDCU to different needs, including new weapon purchasing. I think, this also can be for critical for national security projects like new ballistic and cruise missiles, anti-ship missile, corvette and somesing else. But this is only project of budget  

Edited September 29, 2019 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, John Kettler said:

and it's entirely possible real training is being done using a mockup of at least all-up Javelin system service weight. 

Ah, no, no - this is 100 % joke

[LukeFF]

On 9/28/2019 at 10:55 PM, John Kettler said:

As for the dummy Javelin in the pic, judging from the helmet, that soldier is SOF, and it's entirely possible real training is being done using a mockup of at least all-up Javelin system service weight. 

[Andreas3]

John Kettler: "it's big brain time".

[DerKommissar]

We weren't expecting special forces.

[ikalugin]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/state-department-backs-39-million-javelin-package-for-ukraine

Apparently this would be separate of military aid.

[IMHO]

10 hours ago, ikalugin said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/state-department-backs-39-million-javelin-package-for-ukraine

Apparently this would be separate of military aid.

It goes through FMS route so someone has to pay for it. But the Hill may arrange an aid package to Ukraine and then Ukrianian MoD may pay for Javelins out of the aid package.

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian ATGM team tested Javelin against turret-top slat armor. Looks like the turret of tank just put on BTR hull, but maybe would be better to hit real  decomissioned T-72

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by Haiduk

[evilman222]

5 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian ATGM team tested Javelin against turret-top slat armor. Looks like the turret of tank just put on BTR hull, but maybe would be better to hit real  decomissioned T-72

I think this "test" may have been more of a psychological thing than an actual test. From what I understand just about every expert agrees that the only use for those cages the Russians were rigging up on tanks in Crimea would be as a place to put meat for grilling over an open flame after the tank has been knocked out.

[DMS]

17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian ATGM team tested Javelin against turret-top slat armor. Looks like the turret of tank just put on BTR hull, but maybe would be better to hit real  decomissioned T-72

Test shows, that Javeling doesn't work against cold target. They couldn't hit it until fired something inside. Interesting! I didn't expect this, I thought that it should work against any large metal target. 

Upd: They cut it from this video.

Edited December 24, 2021 by DMS

[fireship4]

Yeah without having any classified knowlege on the subject, I think the Javelin works by processing the image and following something that has a decent amount of thermal contrast.  I think it can probably hit something cold that isn't moving, but that is a guess, with a point attack mode.  Whether this would still need a decent amount of terrain with different IR absorbtion in the area to give enough of a pattern for the image processor to lock on to I don't know.  Could even be laser or gps based in that mode.

EDIT: I get the impression NATO likes to plop on new types of seeker heads to old missles, so a version with a radar in or something else could turn up unexpectedly if there was a serious situation.

Edited December 24, 2021 by fireship4

[John Kettler]

Haiduk et al.,

Have you read this article? Was a whole lot more excited about the test before learning what a pathetic target representation was used.  Believe it's fair to say that US ordnance testers would've gagged at such an abysmal target simulator. Am very much inclined to the view expressed that this test was lots of show and very little go. Further, since the target wasn't pristine to begin with, we can't tell what damage was inflicted by the hit, never mind on a far better target somewhere within 20 years, say, of current Russian tanks. Even then, it would be iffy. Also iffy would be Russian use of Active Defense Systems while enshrouded in that turret cage! The article has links to a bunch of pics on Twitter showing an array of overhead protection on Russian tanks, including one in which the overhead armor is apparently sporting sandbags.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43648/ukrainian-troops-test-javelin-missile-against-russian-cage-style-improvised-tank-armor?fbclid=IwAR0eA_-g3FvdB5jh4QKzETPooLqn2sfT9g95TXUYihwIOW2tlN3WG_3qkKk

Regards,

John Kettler