Jump to content

Putin seems to be incrementally taking over Georgia


Recommended Posts

17 minutes ago, DreDay said:

That is correct, however let's also not forget that Russia has huge influence over NK senior officer staff (most of whom are Russian-trained, and some might be Russian-financed). Those are not the type of cadre whose opinion Kim can afford to ignore.

  1. Nope, all Kims like to keep the top brass on very short leash :) Actually the first purge that Kim-the-Oldest executed some decades ago was shooting everyone suspected of harbouring sympathies to Soviet Union. And then NK was TOTALLY depended on Soviet Union yet the latter was able to save the lives of very few. And those who perished were literally personal friends of many years of Soviet officials formulating and executing Soviet Union's policy to NK. Actually having an education in Russia or China is a detriment to one's career in high echelons of NK's aristocracy. Lower levels of Army command - yes, science - yes, but not the political leadership. Kims are obsessed with total loyalty.
  2. A factual example of real limits of Russian influence in NK is Trans-Korean railroad project - sixteen years old and counting :D Though the case there might be that China wants to be the ONLY boss rather than the BIGGEST of all :D But even then it's quite telling...
Edited by IMHO
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 144
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

46 minutes ago, IMHO said:

It's a Stalinist dictatorship but it's not a Stalinist economy for so many years by now. Again, more than 50% of their GDP is created by private sector.

Not sure what counts as "private sector" in a country where the dictator basically owns everything - the concept of property only has meaning if there's a sovereign power backing up those rights.

In North Korea, the State is controlled 100 percent by the supreme leader. He has the monopoly of force. If you "own" anything in North Korea, it's only because he lets you keep it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, IMHO said:
  1. Nope, all Kims like to keep the top brass on very short leash :) Actually the first purge that Kim-the-Oldest executed some decades ago was shooting everyone suspected of harbouring sympathies to Soviet Union. And then NK was TOTALLY depended on Soviet Union yet the latter was able to save the lives of very few. And those who perished were literally personal friends of many years of Soviet officials formulating and executing Soviet Union's policy to NK. Actually having an education in Russia or China is a detriment to one's career in high echelons of NK's aristocracy. Lower levels of Army command - yes, science - yes, but not the political leadership. Kims are obsessed with total loyalty.

I admit that I am a little behind the curve on this, but back in the 90's there were dozens of DPRK senior officers in the Frunze military academy. Are you saying that they have all been purged now? Then who exactly has replaced them? I might be mistaken, but I have always imgained NK to be a paradise for SVR and GRU "illegals".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, DreDay said:

Please correct me if I am wrong, but the current generation of NK gastarbaiters are just low-skilled seasonal workers; aren't they? I am talking about a senerio where whole middle class families migrate there (sort of like many Armenians did in the late 80s).  I think that you know as well as I do, how highly Russians value educated Koreans for their work-ethic, discipline, and accountability.

Sorry, I can't quite get to the point :( You mean an organized mass-migration of North Koreans in peace-time or as the result of a major war?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, IMHO said:

Sorry, I can't quite get to the point :( You mean an organized mass-migration of North Koreans in peace-time or as the result of a major war?

Mass migration of skilled and educated Koreans as a result of humanitarian crisis caused by war. Again - think of Armenians that fled to Russia to escape pogroms in late 80s; I hope you'll agree that they have proven their worth to the Russian society.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, DreDay said:

I admit that I am a little behind the curve on this, but back in the 90's there were dozens of DPRK senior officers in the Frunze military academy. Are you saying that they have all been purged now? Then who exactly has replaced them? I might be mistaken, but I have always imgained NK to be a paradise for SVR and GRU "illegals".

  1. People of the military not the political leaders.
  2. Frunze means middle-level - captains, majors etc. Certainly captains may become generals somewhere in future. Say many decades after :)
  3. Very limited number - they won't allow you to educate say a half or even a third of them all.
  4. I can't speak for GRU or SVR but I guess NK should be the worst nightmare for any intelligence. As a factual example one can remember Musudan concert in Beijing. Very humiliating for Chinese leadership yet they had no advance information and were not able to prevent the loss of face in so little a question.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fair enough. I believe that Frunze was supposed to train its cadets to become regimental and brigade commanders; but I guess you are right - they could only be promoted to senior officer ranks  upon graduation.

I can't speak for SVR or GRU either, but it seems  to me that PDRK counter-intel was a lot more concearned with the Southeners rather than their Northen comrades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, DreDay said:

Mass migration of skilled and educated Koreans as a result of humanitarian crisis caused by war. Again - think of Armenians that fled to Russia to escape pogroms in late 80s; I hope you'll agree that they have proven their worth to the Russian society.

  1. How does it offset economic losses due to negative effects to many a leading SEA economies? Russia will pay its hefty share of losses through commodities decline. To earn a buck yet loose a hundred looks like a bad trade to me.
  2. Labor market effect:
    1. Right now Northerners don't have many options - not everyone welcomes them. Given a choice why will they go to Russia? Average salary in Russia is 50% less than in China and a nightmare compared to SK? Why Russia over countries much closer geographically and culturally?
    2. To make a dent in Russian labor prices there should be millions of Koreans - how likely such a mass migration?
    3. So far the deal is Russia earns the monies from cheap Korean labor and bears almost no costs of supporting the families. In a scenario of mass-migrations a hard working Korean husband will need to spend RUSSIAN budget to support the family in Russia, not a fraction of it while his family stays in NK. The case of labor migration from Asian republic of former Soviet Union shows the prevailing pattern of keeping families home and bringing only those who can work to Russia.
    4. When Northerners live in their dormitories in Russia and venture outside just to earn an extra buck or entertain oneself with a MacDonald's treat you actually have minimal cultural interaction between two worlds. If whole families are resettled you have massive effort of bringing huge number of people "up to speed". Banking, different medicine, (still) much higher educational standards at school etc. That's immensely expensive IMO
    5. If NK workers do manage to have an effect on local labor market it means the prices will fall for EVERYONE. Even for millions of Russians who are barely able to provide for themselves and their families. What about this cost?

So I think the equation for a "cheap and hard working NK labourer" works just as long as he earns a Russian salary against NK costs, there're not so many of them to actually affect the overall labour market and there're no massive costs to the state finances associated with resettlement. Again I'd use the behaviour of Tajik, Kyrgyz and Uzbek labourers after the Russian rouble crash as a historical proxy. So many of them left because they can earn more working in Middle East.

Edited by IMHO
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why on earth would China or Russia possibly want to help?  :lol:

Both countries are already within striking range of Kim's existing (possibly nuclear-tipped) missiles so they wouldn't benefit in the slightest by doing so and given the US recent belligerent behaviour towards both of those nations I really can't see them feeling at all charitable.

Edited by Sgt.Squarehead
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Sgt.Squarehead said:

Why on earth would China or Russia possibly want to help?  :lol:

 

I guess what we are saying (if I understand my fellow forum members correctly) is that they could be willing help in order to improve the relations with US and Japan (which we have not brought into this discussion yet). Unfortunately though, our current diplomatic shortsightedness; prevents them from taking such initiatives. Instead they are asking us to "Show them the money" before they move a finger.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, DreDay said:

I can't speak for SVR or GRU either, but it seems  to me that PDRK counter-intel was a lot more concearned with the Southeners rather than their Northen comrades.

AFAIK their main concerns as of now are:

  1. Playing court politics :D
  2. Preventing any possible court coup against Kim.
  3. Checking Chinese influence so that Kim does not wake up one morning with no country to rule :D
  4. Making sure an unquestionably difficult and risky time travel from mid-20th century into 21st does not put Kim's / NK aristocracy rule in danger.
  5. Enriching themselves as much as possible. They're one of the most active players in NK foreign trade and internal "privatization" :D
Edited by IMHO
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, IMHO said:
  1. How does it offset economic losses due to negative effects to many a leading SEA economies? Russia will pay its hefty share of losses through commodities decline. To earn a buck yet loose a hundred looks like a bad trade to me.
  2. Labor market effect:
    1. Right now Northerners don't have many options - not everyone welcomes them. Given a choice why will they go to Russia? Average salary in Russia is 50% less than in China and a nightmare compared to SK? Why Russia over countries much closer geographically and culturally?
    2. To make a dent in Russian labor prices there should be millions of Koreans - how likely such a mass migration?
    3. So far the deal is Russia earns the monies from cheap Korean labor and bears almost no costs of supporting the families. In a scenario of mass-migrations a hard working Korean husband will need to spend RUSSIAN budget to support the family in Russia, not a fraction of it while his family stays in NK. The case of labor migration from Asian republic of former Soviet Union shows the prevailing pattern of keeping families home and bringing only those who can work to Russia.
    4. When Northerners live in their dormitories in Russia and venture outside just to earn an extra buck or entertain oneself with a MacDonald's treat you actually have minimal cultural interaction between two worlds. If whole families are resettled you have massive effort of bringing huge number of people "up to speed". Banking, different medicine, (still) much higher educational standards at school etc. That's immensely expensive IMO
    5. If NK workers do manage to have an effect on local labor market it means the prices will fall for EVERYONE. Even for millions of Russians who are barely able to provide for themselves and their families. What about this cost?

So I think the equation for a "cheap and hard working NK labourer" works just as long as he earns a Russian salary against NK costs, there're not so many of them to actually affect the overall labour market and there're no massive costs to the state finances associated with resettlement. Again I'd use the behaviour of Tajik, Kyrgyz and Uzbek labourers after the Russian rouble crash as a historical proxy. So many of them left because they can earn more working in Middle East.

1. I see South Korea and Japan as major financial loosers in such scenario; past droops in the GDP of these two countries have not correlated with similar effects in Russia, AFAIK...

2.1 You might want to double check your numbers. The salaries for Russian and Chinese middle class are roughly comparable; hover China has a huge agrarian underclass that lives in extreme poverty. I don't see how the Chines would want to artificially grow their population before such gap is resolved

2.2 I would say several hundred skill NK citizens would already make a dent.

3.2 I am picturing a scenario where entire families would move to peace and stability offer by Russia. The example of Central Asian migrant workers is not really applicable here.

5.2 Again, we are talking about educated middle class families; besides Russia already has Korean diasporas that have assimilated quite fine and live a productive and fruitful life

6.2 Given the return to Russian population decline that was brought on by the crisis in 1990s; Russians are in a desperate need of "quality" migrant inflow.

 

I have to disagree with your comparison of Central Asian gastarbaiters to the Koreans. Those are totally different calttures and societies; both have a lot to offer; but while Cental Asian laborers are comoditized, middle class Koreans offer highly needed skills and capabilities.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, IMHO said:

AFAIK their main concerns as of now are:

  1. Playing court politics :D
  2. Preventing any possible court coup against Kim.
  3. Checking Chinese influence so that Kim does not wake up one morning with no country to rule :D
  4. Making sure an unquestionably difficult and risky time travel from mid-20th century into 21st does not put Kim's / NK aristocracy rule in danger.
  5. Enriching themselves as much as possible. They're one of the most active players in NK foreign trade and internal "privatization" :D

Good points. All of it seems fair and probable.

Edited by DreDay
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, DreDay said:

2.1 You might want to double check your numbers. The salaries for Russian and Chinese middle class are roughly comparable; hover China has a huge agrarian underclass that lives in extreme poverty. I don't see how the Chines would want to artificially grow their population before such gap is resolved

I made slides of them: long-term economic dead-end for Russia to try to position itself as the land of cheap labor (though more like the land of low salaries given the low productivity). Source: Rosstat vs. NBS, salaries given at exchange rate rather than PPP - it added colour to the logic :D 3Q16 through 1Q17 should stand the test but please correct me if I'm wrong.

41 minutes ago, DreDay said:

2.2 I would say several hundred skill NK citizens would already make a dent.

If several hundreds are 900 of them :) We've got many millions from former Soviet Union republics so they should sizeable against their numbers. And then it'd make millions with family members added.

41 minutes ago, DreDay said:

1. I see South Korea and Japan as major financial loosers in such scenario; past droops in the GDP of these two countries have not correlated with similar effects in Russia, AFAIK...

China growth rates does have a significant effect on oil prices. If we make an assumption NK war severely degrades China economic growth alone then Russia looses on ALL hydrogen exports not just one directed to China. And we still haven't counted in SK and Japan and other commodities Russia exports...

41 minutes ago, DreDay said:

5.2 Again, we are talking about educated middle class families; besides Russia already has Korean diasporas that have assimilated quite fine and live a productive and fruitful life

  1. Here I'd drew your attention to the fact that what's a middle-class in NK is nowhere near that by INTERNATIONAL standards. There's no IT outsourcing, electronics manufacturing, precision machine building etc. There's just nowhere to acquire an internationally transferable skillset. So being a middle class in NK would mean menial job outside. As factual argument I'd use:
    1. Some of Notherners living in SK or China are middle class in NK yet all of them work as unqualified labour.
    2. There was an interesting interview taken by one the Russian specialist in Korean studies with a middle-class NK business-woman (yes, they do exist :)). She was quite open and said that the widespread view among NK middle class is that Korean reunification would be their personal disaster. They pretty much understand they're not competitive and they really loath to work as janitors till the end of their lives.
  2. Russian Korean diaspora is of Korean descent yet it developed along with the country since 40s. By assimilation I mean people from NK will have everyday problems they're unable to solve just because most of their life is structured the way it was 50 years ago. Like you'd need to teach them what is a bank account, how to open it, how to use a credit card etc. Now imagine how difficult it would be for people say in their 40s.

PS And thank you very much for a very interesting discussion! I hope we'll go on :)

Edited by IMHO
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, IMHO said:

@DreDay, @Sgt.Squarehead, @Bulletpoint

New sanctions... So much for any hope of a detente

The new sanctions have nothing to do with there being no hope for detente. The leadership of North Korea has repeatedly not lived up to its agreements and frequently refused to even meet to discuss issues. The fact that there is no hope for discussion is entirely North Korea's doing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/6/2017 at 0:15 AM, IanL said:

The new sanctions have nothing to do with there being no hope for detente. The leadership of North Korea has repeatedly not lived up to its agreements and frequently refused to even meet to discuss issues. The fact that there is no hope for discussion is entirely North Korea's doing.

  1. NK is not a signatory to the non-proliferation so legally they don't have any obligations. Not that I believe NK's getting ICBM adds any positive spin to the situation.
  2. I meant US sanctions against Russia and Russia-US detente, not international sanctions against NK. I expected Russia would have derailed NK sanctions in Security Council in retaliation as was tit-for-tat custom of late times but to my sheer amazement it did not. Though I still believe it may well be a miscalculation on the Russian side - it's obvious there's an extremely broad anti-Russian unity among American establishment. IMO Russian leadership could hope for reciprocity in other areas for its NK position and I can hardly imagine it forthcoming. Then it might be an emotional case of unrealized hopes and further downward spiral. Russia views it as a global bargaining whereas for US all points of contention are separate with their own unconnected logic.
Edited by IMHO
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


×
×
  • Create New...