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Be a "Green Man" in your own Ratnik (surreal discovery)


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Guys,

Every now and then when on ebay I go look at Russian uniforms and such, during which I noticed some Ratnik uniform items. Didn't think all that much about it, but decided to look into it more later. Would you believe that you can get pretty much all of Ratnik except for the radio and body armor proper (carrier available)? You can equip yourself from head to toe, backpack, ammo puches, radio puch and all, for multiple seasons, in the full Ratnik uniform, including active noise-canceling headphones and mic, as well as the Russian version of a Leatherman multipurpose tool. Some of these dealers flat out say they deal directly with (and name, such as Splav) the various concerns which make Ratnik components! Have no idea what MoD is paying for all this stuff, but if it's anywhere close to ebay prices, all we have to do is get Putin to go Ratnik force wide--and bankrupt MoD!  Truly, the amount of money it takes to kit out one soldier is mind-boggling.  Ebay offers a prime opportunity for modders to get a good look at the various pieces of gear composing Ratnik.

Regards,

John Kettler 

 

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Firehead,

People live or die on their ebay reps as sellers. Anyone caught selling Chinese knockoffs would be in the hurt locker for sure--starting with bad review marks and going downhill from there.  It's easy to imagine a situation in which a formal complaint would be filed with ebay, PayPal get involved and more. Fraud is a big deal, and it's easy to get to thresholds where it becomes outright actionable crime. Depending on shipping modalities and other factors, you could see involvement by US and international authorities, too. 

Regards,

John Kettler

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Well for RUS MoD the prices may well be even above those for US-produced equipment. It's just you're a private customer - you may buy or pass on. RUS MoD has no such luxury B) Actually a general rule of the day is RUS MoD has to pay more for RUS-produced equipment than what Western-made equipment of the same class fetches on the international market :angry:

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On 7/25/2017 at 3:43 AM, IMHO said:

Well for RUS MoD the prices may well be even above those for US-produced equipment. It's just you're a private customer - you may buy or pass on. RUS MoD has no such luxury B) Actually a general rule of the day is RUS MoD has to pay more for RUS-produced equipment than what Western-made equipment of the same class fetches on the international market :angry:

And what exactly do you base this information on? Would you be so kind as to send me the latest Russian MOD procurement contracts that you have studied so thoroughly to come up with such revelations?

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2 hours ago, DreDay said:

Would you be so kind as to send me the latest Russian MOD procurement contracts that you have studied so thoroughly to come up with such revelations?

Since all of those are quite confidential you may safely assume I took it from thin air :D But since you sound knowledgeable enough to validate the numbers you asked for, would you be so kind as:

  1. List all the ways and means equipment producers are paid for the military equipment in Russia
  2. Enlighten us on actual TCO/Lifecycle costs for some major new types of Russian military equipment
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You are too kind good sir, I am far from knowledgeable in that realm. It's a very complicated and non-standardized system of procurement - so much so that even my Russian friends don't seem to gasp the scope and methodology of it. However, the basic procurement cycle is initiated by a "tender" (an SOW if you will) that specifies the required equipment, services, purchase amounts and prices. In theory any qualified organization can try to secure such tender; but obviously in practice the contractor is usually implicit by the language of requirements in such tender. (i.e. if you are requesting an upgraded AK-74 - only Izhmash can match such requirement). However there are a lot of other factors that go into this. Sometimes the weapon manufactures end up with extra inventory and the MOD is forced to pickup the slack; like the Algerian (I believe) Mig-29s that were returned to the manufacturer due to defects.

Anyways, my point was that Russian equipment (even with the pork barrel and other wasteful spending included) tends to be cheaper than western counterparts due to the lower costs of labor and other specific aspects of Russian manufacturing. You can see that by comparing the export prices on their tanks, aircraft, artillery, etc. Now it goes without saying that Russian MOD pays less than the foreign clients; and more importantly they pay in rubles.

There are some examples to the contrary (i.e. SV-98 sniper rifle and its scope were originally priced at the same tier as higher quality western counterparts); but generally I see the lower cost of Russian equipment as a rule.

Edited by DreDay
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1 hour ago, DreDay said:

You are too kind good sir, I am far from knowledgeable in that realm. It's a very complicated and non-standardized system of procurement - so much so that even my Russian friends don't seem to gasp the scope and methodology of it. However, the basic procurement cycle is initiated by a "tender" (an SOW if you will) that specifies the required equipment, services, purchase amounts and prices.

You describe a bureaucratic tender process. That's not the answer to the question of means and ways of financing weapons production.

1 hour ago, DreDay said:

Anyways, my point was that Russian equipment (even with the pork barrel and other wasteful spending included) tends to be cheaper than western counterparts due to the lower costs of labor and other specific aspects of Russian manufacturing.

The correct wording would be the salary of an average weapons manufacturing employee is lower... But to infer from that that the end result ought to be cheaper is a breach of logic that contradicts the facts of real life.

1 hour ago, DreDay said:

There are some examples to the contrary (i.e. SV-98 sniper rifle and its scope were originally priced at the same tier as higher quality western counterparts); but generally I see the lower cost of Russian equipment as a rule.

I'd say that using run-of-the-mill stuff is a good proxy to grasp a wider picture. You have standardized pieces with all the tooling paid for, factories fully financially depreciated, production facilities located in the most depressed Russian regions with lowest salaries, energy costs being naturally lower in Russia etc. So if THOSE pieces tend to be times more expensive what would you think of newest samples with technology not well-honed and R&D having a large share of the total cost.

Edited by IMHO
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2 hours ago, IMHO said:

You describe a bureaucratic tender process. That's not the answer to the question of means and ways of financing weapons production.

The correct wording would be the salary of an average weapons manufacturing employee is lower... But to infer from that that the end result ought to be cheaper is a breach of logic that contradicts the facts of real life.

I'd say that using run-of-the-mill stuff is a good proxy to grasp a wider picture. You have standardized pieces with all the tooling paid for, factories fully financially depreciated, production facilities located in the most depressed Russian regions with lowest salaries, energy costs being naturally lower in Russia etc. So if THOSE pieces tend to be times more expensive what would you think of newest samples with technology not well-honed and R&D having a large share of the total cost.

C'mon man. Do we really need this dick measuring contest here? For the record - I do hold an MBA from one of the top schools in my country; so if you want to talk finance,economics, and operations - I would accept your challenge (but very reluctantly as I really hate that **** at this point in my life).

Anyways - labor is cheaper in Russia than any other major weapons manufacturer, accept for China. I am talking about labor because it includes more than just salaries; but other fixed costs associated with full time employment (i.e. social benefits, safety, training etc).

You are also correct to point out that energy carriers are naturally cheaper in Russia (especially for semi-governmental military industrial complex).

The new equipment (as in - not based on Soviet designs) is infact manufactured on new facilities and tools that have not yet depreciated. It was a sunk cost that Russian government had decided to swallow due to the embargo from the west and  Ukraine (which was actually a bigger deal than the former).

R&D is also much cheaper in Russia due to an existing infrastructure of Research Centers (aka NIIs) that they had inherited from the Soviet Union.

On top of that they have somewhat less regimented manufacturing and QA practices that save quite a lot, and are supposed to be countered by the native reliability and simplicity of Russian equipment.

I could go on, but that should be enough for now...

 

PS: I will concede though that when it comes to small batches of items that Russians have no prior manufacturing (even R&D) experience with; they could in fact sell for more than equivalent items in the west. For instance, if Russians decide to get into manufacturing AR-15s; these carbines will be more expensive than what we pay for them here (with all else being equal). That probably explains the SV-98 phenomenon that I have mentioned earlier. However, this anomaly only occurs while such items are manufactured in small batches; which doesn't really apply to mass produced items such as uniforms and field gear.

Edited by DreDay
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1 hour ago, DreDay said:

PS: I will concede though that...

You may start rethinking other points as well :)

1 hour ago, DreDay said:

Anyways - labor is cheaper in Russia than any other major weapons manufacturer, accept for China

  1. Labor costs are way far from being the major drivers for the modern hi-tech weaponry so however low salary (sic!) you may count in it has negligible impact on the final price. And that's gonna be just the beginning as...
  2. Correct way to consider labor cost is not salary at face value but salary+benefits+taxes adjusted for productivity. And here the Russia is many times less efficient than US. Sometimes this productivity gap grows to the order of magnitude. So what you simplistically assumed as Russia cost advantage becomes exactly the opposite in real life.
1 hour ago, DreDay said:

It was a sunk cost that Russian government had decided to swallow due to the embargo from the west and  Ukraine (which was actually a bigger deal than the former).

Whether one psychologically labels those costs sunk they still have tremendously negatively effect on the cost base overall.

1 hour ago, DreDay said:

R&D is also much cheaper in Russia due to an existing infrastructure of Research Centers (aka NIIs) that they had inherited from the Soviet Union.

Soviet Union was dissolved 30 years ago - no one needs technologies of yesteryear. So strictly speaking "an existing infrastructure of Research Centers ... inherited from the Soviet Union" has negative book value. You need to dismantle and bury many an antiquated and hazardous things to build technologies of today - hence negative book value.

1 hour ago, DreDay said:

On top of that they have somewhat less regimented manufacturing and QA practices that save quite a lot, and are supposed to be countered by the native reliability and simplicity of Russian equipment.

For hi-tech weapons "less regimented manufacturing and QA practices" do not reduce the costs. Quite the opposite they increase TCO/Lifetime costs since lax manufacturing standards mean expensive field repairs, urgent force repositioning due to equipment breakdown, lower MTBF for VERY expensive items. So in the end you'll spend MORE on supporting a force of the same size and readiness level.

To all of that you may add prohibitively expensive if not outright impossible task of maintaining a whole ecosystem of top notch scientific teams in all too many areas required to build a plethora of modern high-tech weapons. You gonna be incredibly lucky if you end up simply allocating full costs of say a world class team in radio image recognition to few radar pieces you produce. In a more realistic case you'll have no such capability whatsoever. Them scientists they cannot just spend couple of years developing software for just one radar (because you cannot afford many due to costs) then pack up and go home drink tea till the end of their life. They'll just leave to the lands where they can apply their skills to many areas and many customers.

And I may go on and on :)

Edited by IMHO
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Alright dude, now I am convinced that you are arguing just for the point of arguing. Tell you what, please send me a list of latest Russian military hardware that is more expensive than equivalent Western systems. Hopefully you can start out your evidence list with  Ratnik gear (which is what this post is supposed to be about)...

PS: This is totally unfair, but I will let you in on a little secrete - Russia is more poor than leading Western countries; so they simply can't afford to build systems that cost as much or more than ours; their systems will always be comparatively cheaper - it's as simple as that.

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1 minute ago, DreDay said:

Alright dude, now I am convinced that you are arguing just for the point of arguing. Tell you what, please send me a list of latest Russian military hardware that is more expensive than equivalent Western systems. Hopefully you can start out your evidence list with  Ratnik gear (which is what this post is supposed to be about)...

PS: This is totally unfair, but I will let you in on a little secrete - Russia is more poor than leading Western countries; so they simply can't afford to build systems that cost as much or more than ours; their systems will always be comparatively cheaper - it's as simple as that.

  1. Tomahawk vs. Kalibr, Armata with what they'll realistically be able to provide in the coming years vs. latest Abrams generations, still non existing next-gen engine for T-50, still non-existing mass produced AESA fighter radars, early-warning ICBM radars, non-existing theater defence tactical ballistic missile AESA radar... Enough?
  2. When comparing please count in not just the face value of per-unit purchasing contract from MoD but the total program costs and vendor support from all state-aligned sources.
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19 minutes ago, IMHO said:
  1. Tomahawk vs. Kalibr, Armata with what they'll realistically be able to provide in the coming years vs. latest Abrams generations, still non existing next-gen engine for T-50, still non-existing mass produced AESA fighter radars, early-warning ICBM radars, non-existing theater defence tactical ballistic missile AESA radar... Enough?
  2. When comparing please count in not just the face value of per-unit purchasing contract from MoD but the total program costs and vendor support from all state-aligned sources.

Really, you still want to drag this out? The pricing of Kalibr has not been announced, to the best of my knowledge. It is still a "raw" system compared to Tomahawks that have been around for 30 years; and I am not at all sure that Kalibrs are actually mass produced.

Armata vs. latest Abrams comparison is futile. They are completely different generations of MBTs and Armata is still few years away from mass production.

What we can do is compare equivalent generations of hardware with matching capabilities (i.e. MI-28/KA-52 vs AH-64D), (T-90 vs M1A2),(S-400 vs latest Patriot) (SU-30SM vs latest F-15) - under such fair comparison Russian equipment is almost universally cheaper.

You obviously don't understand how fixed costs work either. NIIs have performed scientific research and continue to do so regardless of how long ago the Soviet system has collapsed. Their work is used not only to perform R&D, but also to test out new hardware. They are an essential instrument in Russian military industrial complex.

You also seem to be confused about what forms the price of products - it has nothing to do with how expensive they were to design and to build (as long as they have any kind of profit margin of course), the price is always set by the market; and more specifically by how much your customers are willing to pay for it.

 

PS: I am still waiting to hear about those super-expensive Ratniks...

Edited by DreDay
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46 minutes ago, DreDay said:

Really, you still want to drag this out? The pricing of Kalibr has not been announced, to the best of my knowledge. It is still a "raw" system compared to Tomahawks that have been around for 30 years; and I am not at all sure that Kalibrs are actually mass produced.

  1. You're wrong. There are rough estimations out there plus you can actually derive approximate costs if you match the output against say "financial allowances" :)
  2. Kalibr family has been produced since the end of 70s.
46 minutes ago, DreDay said:

Armata vs. latest Abrams comparison is futile. They are completely different generations of MBTs and Armata is still few years away from mass production.

  1. Compare their capabilities if you take the systems one can realistically estimate to be present on Armata in the coming years. You'll end up with Armata (hopefully) being similar to latest generations of Merkava and Abrams.
  2. Even for unfinished projects you can do cost estimations and, surprise, with enough experience they end up being not far from reality (if we assume politicians do not tamper with them :))
46 minutes ago, DreDay said:

What we can do is compare equivalent generations of hardware with matching capabilities (i.e. MI-28/KA-52 vs AH-64D), (T-90 vs M1A2),(S-400 vs latest Patriot) (SU-30SM vs latest F-15) - under such fair comparison Russian equipment is almost universally cheaper.

You mostly try to name Soviet-era hardware. There's no doubt Soviet hardware of late 70s - early 80s will be cheaper when compared to US hardware the way the latter existed back then. But if you compare US airframes of 70s with capabilities of 201x bolted on then Russian hardware will start to be prohibitively expensive.

46 minutes ago, DreDay said:

You obviously don't understand how fixed costs work either. NIIs have performed scientific research and continue to do so regardless of how long ago the Soviet system has collapsed. Their work is used not only to perform R&D, but also to test out new hardware. They are an essential instrument in Russian military industrial complex.

@DreDay, really? :) Would you mind helping me with a name of a Russian NII capable of providing high-speed radiation resistant DSPs at a cost available at the US market? Or latest gen thermals? :)

46 minutes ago, DreDay said:

You also seem to be confused about what forms the price of products - it has nothing to do with how expensive they were to design and to build  (as long as they have any kind of profit margin of course), the price is always set by the market; and more specifically by how much your customers are willing to pay for it.

  1. Well... I definitely not putting my money in any enterprise under your management if it ever involves investment in R&D ;)
  2. You may want to have a look at the aggregate program price structure for different blocks of F-35. Tell us if you find R&D costs there ;)

It's a mystery to me but you somehow take the economical aspects of developing, producing and maintaining a well-rounded hi-tech military force to be similar to what was at the late 30s-40s. Back then, yes, your rules were absolutely correct - cheap labor force, advantages in energy costs, here we churn out hordes of steel monsters day and night. Whoever is capable of building a bigger horde - wins. Seems to me that's why you mentioned plain vanilla Ratnik that's quite low tech and absolutely rooted in bolts-and-nuts economy.

Edited by IMHO
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Look friend,

If this is something that you are really interested in - I would strongly urge you to pick up a simple college manual for Business Management 101, it will help you understand the appropriation of fixed assets, basic principles of marketing (including price-setting), and a simple notion of social premium that drives governmental appropriations. I can assure you that these basics have not been changed since the 30s and 40s. It will save you a ton of time, rather than having to reinvent the wheel all over again.

I would also like to welcome your decision not to put any money in my enterprise; as, based on the amount of time that you invest here - you would probably need it for more basic needs.

All that I had asked you for, was a list of Russian military hardware that is noticeably more expensive than their western counterparts. That would serve your cause (which you obviously take very close to heart) much better than trying to fight the wind-mills of basic business principles.

Peace,

DreDay

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On 7/29/2017 at 3:33 AM, DreDay said:

and a simple notion of social premium that drives governmental appropriations

@DreDay, I start to suspect what was one of the best schools where you get your MBA :) Social premium is very narrow and specific term that does not exist in general economic theory. Now if we're done with most scientific process of measuring dicks... :)

On 7/29/2017 at 3:33 AM, DreDay said:

All that I had asked you for, was a list of Russian military hardware that is noticeably more expensive than their western counterparts. That would serve your cause (which you obviously take very close to heart) much better than trying to fight the wind-mills of basic business principles.

On 7/28/2017 at 9:15 PM, IMHO said:
  • Tomahawk vs. Kalibr, Armata with what they'll realistically be able to provide in the coming years vs. latest Abrams generations, still non existing next-gen engine for T-50, still non-existing mass produced AESA fighter radars, early-warning ICBM radars, non-existing theater defence tactical ballistic missile AESA radar... Enough?
  • When comparing please count in not just the face value of per-unit purchasing contract from MoD but the total program costs and vendor support from all state-aligned sources.

Any comment on the above list?

On 7/28/2017 at 9:35 PM, DreDay said:

You obviously don't understand how fixed costs work either. NIIs have performed scientific research and continue to do so regardless of how long ago the Soviet system has collapsed.

On 7/28/2017 at 10:21 PM, IMHO said:

Would you mind helping me with a name of a Russian NII capable of providing high-speed radiation resistant DSPs at a cost available at the US market? Or latest gen thermals? :)

My point is quite simple - both people well versed in technologies of 30 years ago and most of scientific equipment of that era are of little use at today's level of development. So you take such an R&D center (NII), you subtract people and equipment then what have you got of a fabled NII? A letterhead and square footage. Certainly to make my point stand out I push it to very extreme but believe me even in real life it's 80% true. And rebuilding this infrastructure is a very very costly exercise that will overhang on not so vast a final military output. As an example see how much China has already invested in science and still continues to do so.

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