Separatist push/Ukraine shove back

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, ikalugin said:

Except that they are forced to use battalions from different units.

What evidence do you have that the Ukrainian policy of rotation is "forced" by these factors instead of the factors that Haiduk and I have mentioned?

9 hours ago, ikalugin said:

This practice (to train at the unit level and rotate subunits) is actually another of the reasons why Kiev Loyalists could not deploy BDE sized force and instead have to rely on the ad-hoc formations of subunits. Again, I would suggest that you would look into the Russian experience in both Chechen wars and it's criticism in regard to using parts of units/formations (battalions out of regiments, regiments out of divisions) with rotation of said parts instead of full units/formations and rotation of full units.

There are two possibilities:

1.  The units are deployed in order to maximize experience within a Brigade/Regiment, reduce negative impacts of full deployment to homebase morale, etc.

2.  The units are deployed as ad-hoc sub units because Ukraine has no choice and, if they had a choice, would not engage in this practice

Based on my analysis, #2 was very true for 2014 and into 2015, but starting in 2015 #1 is more the case.

For small scale operations it still makes sense to shift company sized forces around rather than full battalions.  That's true for NATO forces as well.

Also keep in mind that Russia is doing something similar to #1 with its forces in Ukraine.  It would be too suspicious if a full Brigade were moved into Ukraine, so they only put in battalion sized forces maximum.  It also has to do with the fact that Russia has problems finding personnel within a single Brigade to "go on vacation", so it has to go to several brigades to get several battalion sized formations.  In other words, it appears Ukraine is doing #1 voluntarily, while Russia is "forced" to do it.

Steve

[Rinaldi]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

1.  The units are deployed in order to maximize experience within a Brigade/Regiment, reduce negative impacts of full deployment to homebase morale, etc.

 

This was my understanding as well; and isn't it basically standard in small and hyrbid war scenarios? A lot of the fighting in the Donbass may have a conventional flavor to it, but it is basically the definition of a small/hybrid conflict at present.

To play devil's advocate here too, even if for reasons of plausible deniability the Russians are forced to limit and mix the deployment of their forces in rotations we must conclude they're reaping all the benefits of the net 'in theater' experience that applies to (1) as well. Whether they learn any lessons of value is another discussion though.

Edit: You clearly address this in your last paragraph, that's what I get for clicking 'reply' too eagerly.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Rinaldi

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, ikalugin said:

This practice (to train at the unit level and rotate subunits) is actually another of the reasons why Kiev Loyalists could not deploy BDE sized force and instead have to rely on the ad-hoc formations of subunits.

This was true for 2014-2015. Now each brigade has own sector of front. Of course brigade represented with 1-2 battalions and support, not in full strenghth. Rest are on rotations. There is no such situation like in 2014, when one battalion in sector A, second - in sector M, third - divided with volunterrs battalions.

Edited January 27, 2017 by Haiduk

[DMS]

Another "small attack" at Avdeevka industral zone. Unsuccessfull. DNR army reports 15 Ukrainian soldiers KIA, VSU admits 3 KIA.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, DMS said:

Another "small attack" at Avdeevka industral zone. Unsuccessfull. DNR army reports 15 Ukrainian soldiers KIA, VSU admits 3 KIA.

So "unsuccessful", that Khodakovskyi says about lost positions %)

In 5-50 of morning enemy have opened intensive artillery and mortar fire on our positions in Avdiivka industrial zone area and Donetsk water filtering station (DFS) some eastern. In 7-00 enemy troops have conducted attempt of large scale assault by forces of 3rd battalion of 11th motorized regiment "Vostok". During several hours of clashes enemy have retreated, our troops counter attacked in area of 1st pound of DFS and either heavy shelled or seized enemy positions there. Separatists threw in the battle reserve, which have led 1st battalion commander with callsign "Greek", one of fundators of "Vostok" battalion in 2014. In the battle "Greek" was killed. Battle now is continuing. Avdiivka remained without electricity.

From our size 3 lost (1 KIA, 2 died from heavy wounds) 1 WIA. No exactly information about enemy losses, just Khodakovskyi, former commander of 11th regiment say about known 11 WIA and killed battalion commander.

On photo UAV shot of lost separs positions (position "Almaz") by words of Khodakovskyi 

... and location on map (Avdiivka industyrial zone in west direction throug the road). Blue arrows - possible directions of UKR advance.

Edited January 29, 2017 by Haiduk

[DMS]

Khodakovskyi doesn't say about lost positions.

https://www.facebook.com/aleksandr.khodakovskiy?fref=ts

By the way, he wrote that large (were moving through city more than 2 hours) column passed from Kramatorsk to Svetlodarsk. And shelling of Donetsk yesterday. Escalation started.

P.S. "enemy troops have conducted attempt of large scale assault" - Haiduk, come on. Separatists start large attack, but in fact VSU capture (or try to capture) DNR positions. Are you afraid that OSCE will notice your post?

Edited January 29, 2017 by DMS

[Haiduk]

23 minutes ago, DMS said:

Khodakovskyi doesn't say about lost positions.

https://www.facebook.com/aleksandr.khodakovskiy?fref=ts

By the way, he wrote that large (were moving through city more than 2 hours) column passed from Kramatorsk to Svetlodarsk. And shelling of Donetsk yesterday. Escalation started.

Сегодня утром он лично повел подкрепление на уничтожаемую позицию. Today's morning he personally has led reinforcement on position, which was been destroyed. Yes, this is just not lost, but position under our fire control - 

I don't think this is real escalation. Just another local operation like Maryinka in 2015 or Svitlodarsk bulge in December 2016

Next hot point today - near Kominternove on Mariupol direction our trops is attacking enemy position height 73 ("Derzkiy"). But no any information yet

[Haiduk]

Next enemy attack was in 13-45. Repelled. Further were position skirmishes and low intensity artillery/mortar duels. To this time our losses 4 KIA 5 WIA. 

Edited January 29, 2017 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, DMS said:

Another "small attack" at Avdeevka industral zone. Unsuccessfull. DNR army reports 15 Ukrainian soldiers KIA, VSU admits 3 KIA.

Normally what one does is take reports from both sides, dispense with the enemy loss category, and compare the friendly losses.  So far Ukraine says it lost 4 KIA and 5 WIA, separatists admit to 3 KIA and 11 WIA.  That's a pretty even exchange in terms of losses, though the separatist side's numbers are not inherently reliable.  It is probable that they lost more than is reported, while on the Ukrainian side it is more likely accurate (or reasonably so).

BTW, the number of positions that separatists occupy in contradiction to Minsk is huge (Debaltseve for example).  If the Russians want to make a fuss about a couple of trenches moving to Ukraine's control, they just make themselves look foolish.  Plus, for the most part these actions have been taking place in areas which the separatists are not supposed to be in and have refused to move.  So let's not confuse facts with the alternate universe that Russian media lives in.

Steve

[Marwek77 aka Red Reporter]

I dont follow this topic, but sometimes i just read what Mr. God Steve says... And his universe is always "the correct" one  

Similar to my wife, Steve and she, they always want to have the last word

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:

I dont follow this topic, but sometimes i just read what Mr. God Steve says... And his universe is always "the correct" one  

You're welcome to show that it is the "incorrect one" any time you wish.  If you can not do that, then perhaps it is "the correct" one?  I'm sure you think that your way of thinking is "the correct" one.  I'm at least confident enough that I'm right that I'm willing to expose my beliefs to criticism and scrutiny.  How about you?

Quote

Similar to my wife, Steve and she, they always want to have the last word

Nobody has the last word in this thread until it is locked.  Anybody can challenge anything posted here.

Since we're into analogies, does your wife think that your comments serve no purpose and are there just to hear yourself talk?

Steve

[Kuderian]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You're welcome to show that it is the "incorrect one" any time you wish.  If you can not do that, then perhaps it is "the correct" one?  I'm sure you think that your way of thinking is "the correct" one.  I'm at least confident enough that I'm right that I'm willing to expose my beliefs to criticism and scrutiny.  How about you?

Nobody has the last word in this thread until it is locked.  Anybody can challenge anything posted here.

Since we're into analogies, does your wife think that your comments serve no purpose and are there just to hear yourself talk?

Steve

The best way to get the last word in with my wife is to wait till she has left for work

[Rinaldi]

Passive Aggression is like comedy without a punch line , and remember 1 smiley = 1 got em

" I dont follow this topic "

Ah so you're in the best position to take a ham-fisted swipe at someone who is actually trying to interpret the loose collection of rumors and conflicting reports that pose for facts in this situation. Perhaps you haven't noticed, but the gentlemen arguing with Steve don't need you to defend them, they've shown themselves quite capable of having a mature conversation with him on their own.

Edited January 29, 2017 by Rinaldi
wew lad

[DMS]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

BTW, the number of positions that separatists occupy in contradiction to Minsk is huge (Debaltseve for example).  If the Russians want to make a fuss about a couple of trenches moving to Ukraine's control, they just make themselves look foolish.  Plus, for the most part these actions have been taking place in areas which the separatists are not supposed to be in and have refused to move.  So let's not confuse facts with the alternate universe that Russian media lives in.

Steve

You sympathize Kiev goverment, we sympathize DNR, you will approve any actions of Kiev forces, we will approve any actions of DNR forces. So, no need to hide facts and blame other sides. We can post there facts as is, without corrections, I think. Noone will change their mind reading some posts. 

Now it doesn't look like another skirmish for a trench. Shellings front-wide. Donetsk under fire, again after long time. Heavy artillery in action, infrastructure objects under fire. Several towns out of electricity, Donetsk is short on water.

[Marwek77 aka Red Reporter]

Many comments here serve to no purpose, some people just read how 2 sides presents actions of their favorite sides. It will be better for all of them when they will simply do something else - for example play your game Mr. Steve. Whatever happens in places described by media of both sides - none of us was there, so simply to believe that one side is correct and the other not - lets wait and time will show what really happens. If it will be in short or long time hard to say. So i do not believe neither side in this statistics game numbers. If you think, that i am here just to hear myself - that is your problem how you feel it. 

[Haiduk]

Looks like FB and twitter again overestimated scale of figting. Our General staff says the enemy have attacked on two directions with two reinforced platoons and heavy infantry weapon support (some reports about few armor from both sides), though artillery fire was really very intensive. There are several impacts in old part of Avdiiivka, several indiviadual houses destroyed or damaged, two civilians wounded. Also from our side several shells hit outskirts of Donetsk. Locals say in social networks, some DNR artillery works from positions near with residential areas in Donetsk and Makiivka. Enemy losses still exactly unknown. I have seen 2 KIA 13 WIA, 8 KIA 24 WIA, 9 KIA 23 WIA (last one from capitan of 72nd brigade which is defending that area). I think, results of battle will be more clear in next several days.    

Edited January 30, 2017 by Haiduk

[Holien]

Thanks for the continued updates, this is one of the few threads I check every day. What is happening in Ukraine is deeply important and getting this sort of analysis and input is good. So please keep it going.

Just my 2p ymmv.

[Battlefront.com]

9 hours ago, DMS said:

You sympathize Kiev goverment,

Wrong.  I sympathize with what is most likely true.  I sympathize with the party that is the victim of foreign aggression.  I sympathize with the people that are unnecessarily dying for another country's benefit.  It is coincidental that point of view happens to coincide with that of Ukraine's point of view.

9 hours ago, DMS said:

So, no need to hide facts and blame other sides. We can post there facts as is, without corrections, I think. Noone will change their mind reading some posts. 

I hide no facts, but I do assess responsibility.  Your swipe at Haiduk about the OSCE was made from a warped and factually ignorant point of view.  It is a fact that Russia continued its offensive to take Debaltseve after it agreed to Minsk 2.  Under Minsk 2 Debaltseve is supposed to be in Ukrainian control.  It is not, as is the large swath of territory around it.  Many of the places that the Ukraine armed forces are striking back in are either supposed to be under Ukrainian control under Minsk 2 or are not supposed to have DPR/LPR forces in occupation.

If you wish to challenge my comments, please do.  But do not say I am the one that is "hiding facts" because that is not what I do.

9 hours ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:

Many comments here serve to no purpose, some people just read how 2 sides presents actions of their favorite sides. It will be better for all of them when they will simply do something else - for example play your game Mr. Steve. Whatever happens in places described by media of both sides - none of us was there, so simply to believe that one side is correct and the other not -

I have a healthy amount of skepticism about Ukrainian claims, but I have extremely low regard for the information coming from DPR/LPR/Russian information.  This is based on very solid, very rational reasons that history thus far has reinforced as "prudent".  You call it bias, I call it paying attention to both sides and drawing appropriate conclusions about each.

9 hours ago, Marwek77 aka Red Reporter said:

lets wait and time will show what really happens. If it will be in short or long time hard to say. So i do not believe neither side in this statistics game numbers. If you think, that i am here just to hear myself - that is your problem how you feel it. 

Based on the history of this war so far, there is reason to have some faith in the Ukrainian numbers about their own casualties are reasonably accurate, while there is no reason to have faith in the Russian casualty numbers.  If you paid enough attention to both sides throughout this war you should understand the reasons why I say this.  The easiest way for me to prove my point is to ask you what is the Russian government's official losses in the war in Donbas?

Steve

[DMS]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wrong.  I sympathize with what is most likely true.  I sympathize with the party that is the victim of foreign aggression.  I sympathize with the people that are unnecessarily dying for another country's benefit.  It is coincidental that point of view happens to coincide with that of Ukraine's point of view.

I hide no facts, but I do assess responsibility.  Your swipe at Haiduk about the OSCE was made from a warped and factually ignorant point of view.  It is a fact that Russia continued its offensive to take Debaltseve after it agreed to Minsk 2.  Under Minsk 2 Debaltseve is supposed to be in Ukrainian control.  It is not, as is the large swath of territory around it.  Many of the places that the Ukraine armed forces are striking back in are either supposed to be under Ukrainian control under Minsk 2 or are not supposed to have DPR/LPR forces in occupation.

If you wish to challenge my comments, please do.  But do not say I am the one that is "hiding facts" because that is not what I do.

 

And you think that Kiev is the victim of foreign aggression, that Ukrainian nationalists and VSU draftees are unnecessarily dying e.t.c., so you sympathize VSU.

Hm, my English is too bad, as I am constantly misunderstood. (Probably I should write less and more read. ) I wanted to say that I don't see any sense in blaming any side being agressor, as everyone here already has point of view and won't change it. That's why Haiduk's remark that "separtitsts attack first, VSU only strikes back" was odd. If VSU attacked first noone here will sympathize Ukraine less. 

During Minsk negotiations VSU already was in claudron in Debaltsevo, Kiev denied it. They may stay in Debaltsevo, if they wasn't surrounded. )

[Kinophile]

On 1/23/2017 at 2:13 PM, Battlefront.com said:

The obvious purpose of this is to make sure the widest array of forces have experience with combat operations. 

Also it would drastically help with future inter-unit communications, relationships, battlefield coordination, etc.

i.e. being able to trust your neighbours and peers.  

[Kinophile]

On 1/23/2017 at 3:50 PM, Haiduk said:

 

 

00:47

I've seen that commander before...I think hes a colonel? I think I saw him on a blog of a UKR NG soldier - it was a very decent blog/direct reporting article of his own experiences, the author was a former journalist.

This guy looks awfully like his commander. The blog stopped just before Debaltsevo, very abruptly.

 

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by kinophile

[Haiduk]

Too cold in Donbas in that days... -22 C at the night and 10..12 at the day.

Some additional information about yesterday's battle. Total lenghth of fighting was 19 hours from 4-30 of the morning, when artillery and mortar shelling have began. Except Avdiivka industrial zone (slang name "promka") enemy have conducted false attacks on our positions between Kamyanka and Kruta Balka villages near Donetsk water filtering station - DFS (4 km NE from "promka") approx. in 6-00 and on Butivka coal mine (3 km SW from "promka") in 13-00. In assault actions on "promka" enemy was using about tank platoon or less, but only for distant direct fire support. During our counter attacks we seized two enemy positions, but not clear where (there is some information that first near DFS or 1st pound and second in vineyards in cottadge settlement south from "promka"). Our artillery hit enemy fortified position on Yasynuvata fork. 

Our yesterday's losses 4 KIA and 13 WIA. Three of them were killed by one 120 mm mortar shell. Alas among them got killed talented young officer Andriy Kyzylo, in own 23 years he already was a captain and deputy of battalion commander. In 2014 in his 20 he has graduated National Ground forces academy and went on front as lieutenent. Since year he already was awarded as best comapny commander in Mariupol sector.  Here his last photo on position several days ago...

Intelligence have reported that yesterday's enemy losses 15 KIA, 24 WIA, one captured - he is local from Makiivka, was ATGM operator. Ineed our troops captured three separs, but two of them were badly wounded and have died.

 

Today actions. 30.01.

From early morning enemy was continuing artillery, mortar and tank shelling of our positions, Especially heavy strikes were on vineyards. Our troops even were forced to abandon own forward position there, but enemy also didn't risk to advance and seize its. After enemy fire became more calm our troops turned back. Shelling conducted up to 10-30 of morning and then after 12-00 renewed. But in this time enemy heavy shelled mostly our close rear - possibly want to hit artillery positions and reserves. 152 mm Giztsynt-B guns was spotted. As result, electrical supply of Avdiivka coke-chemical plant - an industrial giant, which maintains heating for Avdiivka was broken. The city with 35 000 of population (before war) remain without light and heating in -20 frosts. Also enemy shell hit water filtering station. Director of it assumed a decision to stop work of DFS. Now nearby villages, settlements, Avdiivka and partially Donetsk and Makiivka remained also witout water. Our artillery heavy shelled Putilovka - northern outskirt of Donetsk, traditional place of enemy artillery and troops. Also again was hit enemy fortifications on Yasynuvata fork. For this day up to 18-00 our losses is 3 KIA, 17 WIA (but this is on all frontline, up to 12-00 in Avdiivka sector was known about 2 KIA and 5 WIA)

Finally, screen of post of "Ol'khon" - well known in DNR Russian volunteer, commandr of recon unit in Debaltsevo operation in 2015. Special for DMS in order to solve a question "who attacked first". Though for me is not important. If an enemy invade, he must be expelled out in any ways.  

 

Translate:  

About situation in Avdiivka area and in "promka" area.

The situation is expected and quite ordinary. An attempt to show by servicemen of 11th separate motor-rifle regiment (always smiled to use anyway a word "separate" in LDNR army), how they are have trained on the range tactical action "battalion in offensive" and how they can execute this action indeed in conditions of real battle, - so, this attempt was initially doomed to failure. There are many cases, but I say about one main - complete absence of real combat readyness of 3rd battalion of 11 regiment.  

Edited January 30, 2017 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, kinophile said:

00:47

I've seen that commander before...I think hes a colonel? I think I saw him on a blog of a UKR NG soldier

This is Zurab Chikhelidze, commander of "Georgian legion" platoon. They are part of 25th motorized battalion of 54th mech.brigade. Platoon consists of Georgian volunteers, mostly former servicemen, which participated in war with Russia in 2008 and now want to revenge. I don't know what his rank in Ukrainain army, but in Georgian army he was a captain. 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

Just now, Haiduk said:

This is Zurab Chikhelidze, platoon commander of "Georgian legion" platoon. They are part of 25th motorized battalion of 54th mech.brigade. Platoon consists of Georgian volunteers, mostly former servicemen, which participated in war with Russia in 2008 and now want to revenge. I don't know what his rank in Ukrainain army, but in Georgian army he was a captain. 

Copy, thank you.

[Battlefront.com]

17 hours ago, DMS said:

And you think that Kiev is the victim of foreign aggression, that Ukrainian nationalists and VSU draftees are unnecessarily dying e.t.c., so you sympathize VSU.

There is a subtle point you are missing.  I am not sympathizing with the Kiev side because it is Kiev and the other side is Russia.  If Kiev was waging a war of aggression against Russia, and lying about it, then I would sympathize with Russia.  Any under no circumstances do I distort facts to fit my sympathies.  If Ukraine screws up or does something that is illegal, I'm perfectly happy to accept it if the evidence is there.  I have no loyalty to Ukraine that would override my personal integrity about seeking truth.

17 hours ago, DMS said:

Hm, my English is too bad, as I am constantly misunderstood. (Probably I should write less and more read. ) I wanted to say that I don't see any sense in blaming any side being agressor, as everyone here already has point of view and won't change it. That's why Haiduk's remark that "separtitsts attack first, VSU only strikes back" was odd. If VSU attacked first noone here will sympathize Ukraine less. 

You are mistaken.  I think most of the people reading this thread would welcome a full Ukrainian offensive to throw the Russian invaders out of its territory and make Russia think twice about invading another weaker neighbor in the future.  On the other hand, there is very good reason for the Russian media to make it seem like Ukraine is in violation of Minsk and can't be trusted.  The problem you don't seem to understand is nobody outside of Russia (except right wing extremists) believe a word Russia says because it's history of lying is so obvious and so extensive.  So if Russia says something and Ukraine says the opposite, the sensible thing to do is believe Ukraine because it's more likely true.  However, that does not make it so.  If Russia really cares about being proven correct it could allow OSCE to fully monitor its side, it could allow journalists free access, and it could allow UN Peace Keepers to take over to ensure the cease fire holds.

17 hours ago, DMS said:

During Minsk negotiations VSU already was in claudron in Debaltsevo, Kiev denied it. They may stay in Debaltsevo, if they wasn't surrounded. )

Wow.  I suppose if you discount reality your point might be valid in an alternate universe.  Here in the world the rest of us live in Minsk 2 was signed and in effect but the Russian offensive increased in the days after signature.  The assault included the use of regular Russian Federation forces which itself is a violation of Minsk 1, Minsk 2, and international law generally.  If Russia had followed the terms of either Minsk 1 or Minsk 2 then there would be Ukrainian forces in Debaltseve now.  Of course if Russia lived up to its agreements it would never have invaded Ukraine in the first place.

No matter how it is viewed by you the facts are very clear to those of us who are not biased by nationalism and domestic propaganda.

Steve