US/ NATO v. Russia - Misperceptions.

[Hister]

This is insightful: 

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/10/world/americas/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html

[VladimirTarasov]

Congratulations to America on the election. Looking forward to Russia and the US having better relations. 

[panzermartin]

He hasnt spoken a lot about foreign issues. Probably he will rely greatly on his staff on that which can be a good or a bad thing. I bet if he and Putin were taking a history/political quizz it would be embarassing for him;) We know he doesnt like China much, hates ISIS and goes way easier on Russia than Clinton and Obama.

The few hints we have about Ukraine, is that at first he seemed to be ok with Crimea being russian: " But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that..."

Also, he didnt meet Poroshenko in NY, while Clinton did. Some say he snubbed him, others it was just due to conflicting schedules. 

Its too early to tell but it would be nice to hear a more insightful speculation from people that know better perhaps. 

[VladimirTarasov]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

He hasnt spoken a lot about foreign issues. Probably he will rely greatly on his staff on that which can be a good or a bad thing. I bet if he and Putin were taking a history/political quizz it would be embarassing for him;) We know he doesnt like China much, hates ISIS and goes way easier on Russia than Clinton and Obama.

The few hints we have about Ukraine, is that at first he seemed to be ok with Crimea being russian: " But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that..."

Also, he didnt meet Poroshenko in NY, while Clinton did. Some say he snubbed him, others it was just due to conflicting schedules. 

Its too early to tell but it would be nice to hear a more insightful speculation from people that know better perhaps. 

About Ukraine.... Let's just say Mr. Trump and Ukraine's government will not be having any good times together. Their whole media campaigned against him in country, demonized and insulted him. Trump wont forget that lol... Kind of a mistake on Ukraine's end. 

[panzermartin]

Probably not that smart from the ukrainians, I mean they couldnt do much to affect people's vote in the US anyway. But lets not forget that this guy is primarily a businessman.  It will mostly be about good deals, so things can shift accordingly. But its true for the time being he seems a lot more russian leaning than ukrainian leaning and he has talked about doing business with Russia in the past (apart from bringing miss Universe to Moscow I suppose;) )

[cool breeze]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Uh, I think it would be pretty obvious that the US Presidential election is so far off topic that if it continues I'm going to lock it up.  Which I think would be a shame.

Speculating about how the new US President might alter policy towards Russia is OK, however I'd like it to be in context of Ukraine.

Steve

Sorry Steve, I didn't really think about it but in hindsight I did kind of know that was against the rules, but I did keep it war focused at least, sorta, and this is one of my main social haunts, and it's been a little stressful with everyone in my city thinking (and probably my dad on the east coast). we are all bigots.  One of my best friends called me a bigot last night, and he wouldn't take it back so I pulled his chair back to put him on his back and stood over him asking again if he wanted to fight or to take it back, and he still wouldn't do I told him to leave, until he finally took it back and things went back to normal.   So it's clearly getting to me and freaking me out so I guess I just had to get it off my chest 

[Erwin]

I recall that very similar things were said and there were demonstrations when Reagan "a mere Hollywood actor" got elected in a surprise upset vote.  Obama got it right when he predicted that tomorrow the sun will rise.

Don't worry, be happy...

[JUAN DEAG]

In light of the election it's probably safe to assume that Putin is going to start "protecting ethnic Russians" in more provinces in Ukraine. Ukraine is going have to start getting serious about national defense since Batman is totally fine with the Joker terrorizing Gotham. The era of great powers protecting their flock is over; now sovereignty stands a nation's ability to defend itself and the ability to secure regional alliances, not on some superficial promise from a larger nation. I'm sure Russia's neighbors are just as pumped as @cool breeze about a Trump victory. RIP eastern European liberal democracy 2016, it was an idealistic notion that just wasn't practical.

[Erwin]

History shows that most fears are never realized.  It's way too early for panicky reactions.  Wish we could recall this thread a year from now and compare with reality at that time.

[cool breeze]

Its never to early to panic, EVERYBODY PAAAANNNNIIIIICCCCCC!   

 

Btw thanks for the message  yesterday Erwin, it helped to hear this has all sort of happened before. 

[Kinophile]

Well,  if he's intending to reset NATO &  Russia relations then my money is s on Ukraine receiving diddly squat support.

[VladimirTarasov]

27 minutes ago, kinophile said:

Well,  if he's intending to reset NATO &  Russia relations then my money is s on Ukraine receiving diddly squat support.

Ukraine won't be receiving anything from Trump, shall I give the links to every negative comment the Ukraine's media and politicians have made against him? Ukraine really messed up in that regard. They were convinced Hillary would become the president of the US. I'm not expecting Trump to let everything slide, but he will definitely improve relations between Russia and the US, and in doing so with Europe as well. 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

3 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Ukraine won't be receiving anything from Trump, shall I give the links to every negative comment the Ukraine's media and politicians have made against him? Ukraine really messed up in that regard. They were convinced Hillary would become the president of the US. I'm not expecting Trump to let everything slide, but he will definitely improve relations between Russia and the US, and in doing so with Europe as well. 

Remember too, Obama started off with a "reset" in Russian relations and see how far that one went.  He's inheriting a lot of people, agencies, and programs from Obama too.

It's too early to tell, and Trump isn't making it easier by putting cards on the table.  

[JUAN DEAG]

4 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

but he will definitely improve relations between Russia and the US, and in doing so with Europe as well. 

I'm sure Europeans will be skeptical of a person that thinks that vaccines cause autism, climate change is a hoax, and that Obama wasn't born in the U.S. Let alone thinking that Russia isn't a threat to European unity and democracy. Trump and reality are two different worlds, and Europeans can see this.

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, JUAN DEAG said:

I'm sure Europeans will be skeptical of a person that thinks that vaccines cause autism, climate change is a hoax, and that Obama wasn't born in the U.S. Let alone thinking that Russia isn't a threat to European unity and democracy. Trump and reality are two different worlds, and Europeans can see this.

EU is extremely sceptical of The Twat. But it just takes a few far right parties to take power and it can all shift. Oddly, probably pro Russia,  to a degree. 

[Hister]

In the worst case scenario EU dissolves, Germany turns right and with Russia divides Europe intheir spheres of influence. But that woild really be an extreme option amongst all other options that could happen.

 

[panzermartin]

Slightly OP but the first good sign for the World matters is that Trump will abandon support for the rebels in Syria according to a latest interview in WSJ. We can say whatever we want for the dude but if this is true, he will probably be the president of the US that will put an end to the bloody Syrian War. The strategy of supporting obscure jihadist groups was doomed to fail from the start and a lot unecessary blood was spilt in the process. Hopefully, a political plan for Syria will soon be put to table to see what can be saved from the carnage and how all those refugees can return to a safe home and not keep on living in tents in Europe and elsewhere. At least we can hope.

[Kinophile]

Dude, seriously? You're talking like it's just been some uppity,  unwanted terrorists causing trouble for everyone . 

It was a country-wide popular uprising within an Islamic society, caused,  exacerbated and maintained by a ruthless government's extreme military reaction and it's merciless slaughter of its own men, women and children. A similar uprising in the States/Europe would quickly create extremist Right Wing Christian groups. 

 Extreme jihadist groups were inevitable the longer it went on, as their motivation is strongest and they are more ruthless. 

Returning refugees have no guarantees that they will not be treated as criminals,  3rd class citizens, rebel sympathizers -  ie potential targets.  

Defeating the jihadis is one solution, basically Russia's solution, and hence will result in continued civilian repression . 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Slightly OP but the first good sign for the World matters is that Trump will abandon support for the rebels in Syria according to a latest interview in WSJ. We can say whatever we want for the dude but if this is true, he will probably be the president of the US that will put an end to the bloody Syrian War. The strategy of supporting obscure jihadist groups was doomed to fail from the start and a lot unecessary blood was spilt in the process. Hopefully, a political plan for Syria will soon be put to table to see what can be saved from the carnage and how all those refugees can return to a safe home and not keep on living in tents in Europe and elsewhere. At least we can hope.

We've talked about this.  If you were concerned with the lives of Syrians, far and away the Syrian government is the most lethal thing to Syrian civilians in the Syrian civil war.  Most of the refugees fled the Syrian government.  They're not likely to return to a government that was just trying very hard to murder all of them.

[panzermartin]

Assad is not innocent and not only one side is the source of the problem, I have accepted this. I'm just hoping he will be forced to adjust to a less opressive rule. I'm hoping a part of those refugees will return once bombs stop falling and jihadists stop blowing up. I dont see any other way out right now. Maybe the uprsiing was popular in the beginiing as you say but now it clearly isnt. We are not talking about 2011. Whoever is supporting what is left from the opposition has to accept defeat given the balance of powers right now. I dont understand why people cant see its a lost cause to go on with the carnage. 

[Machor]

39 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

he will be forced to adjust

Who will force Assad to 'adjust' or for that matter do anything?

40 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Whoever is supporting what is left from the opposition has to accept defeat

I agree, and that means 3+ million refugees on their way to Europe. Good luck! 

[panzermartin]

21 minutes ago, Machor said:

Who will force Assad to 'adjust' or for that matter do anything?

I agree, and that means 3+ million refugees on their way to Europe. Good luck! 

If he wants to govern something more than ruins and empty cities he has to show a glimpse of hope for the population that peacefully and silently opposed his rule all these years.

I disagree on the 3 million regugees. The end of conflict will bring some people back not force more out. Not men in military age but I'm hoping families will attempt to return.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/syrian-refugees-europe-160504111600535.html

"We never thought that one day we would be living in garages in Lebanon. We feel humiliated. But I never thought of going to Europe. How could I abandon my family and go to an unknown place?"

A lot share this view. Plus Europe with its closed borders and right-wingers on the rise is not going to give them any hope and they know it. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by panzermartin

[Machor]

Assad ran a de facto ethnic cleansing campaign that altered Syria's demographics in favour of his powerbase, the Alawites. Why should he want to reverse such an outcome?

I haven't heard of any Alawites being among the refugees, and for several years now the refugees had the option of returning to areas under Assad's control where there was no fighting. The BBC article I linked to previously in the thread about the residents of east Aleppo (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37779478 ) shows that people don't trust Assad to honour his word even with humanitarian corridors. Returning to live under him would seem like (and quite probably equal) suicide.

[sburke]

On 11/10/2016 at 3:36 PM, cool breeze said:

Sorry Steve, I didn't really think about it but in hindsight I did kind of know that was against the rules, but I did keep it war focused at least, sorta, and this is one of my main social haunts, and it's been a little stressful with everyone in my city thinking (and probably my dad on the east coast). we are all bigots.  One of my best friends called me a bigot last night, and he wouldn't take it back so I pulled his chair back to put him on his back and stood over him asking again if he wanted to fight or to take it back, and he still wouldn't do I told him to leave, until he finally took it back and things went back to normal.   So it's clearly getting to me and freaking me out so I guess I just had to get it off my chest 

Sorry to hear that cool breeze.  I suspect we voted probably totally different directions, but that is the whole point of voting.  We the people have a say in our gov't and that means all sides have a say. Anyway back to the thread topic, just wanted to say a s a fellow San Jose resident, we have to get past this either/or mentality.  Sorry to hear what you have gone through.

[VladimirTarasov]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Slightly OP but the first good sign for the World matters is that Trump will abandon support for the rebels in Syria according to a latest interview in WSJ.

So finally an end to this war basically. 

15 hours ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

Remember too, Obama started off with a "reset" in Russian relations and see how far that one went.  He's inheriting a lot of people, agencies, and programs from Obama too.

Obama and Trump are two different characters. I know for a fact Trump wont be continuing with the "Russian aggression" rhetoric, since you know the same Democrats in office said he has ties to the Kremlin LOL!