Gallipoli Gambit

[Korut Zelva]

Ok, time for a little CTA.

I want to see if I can make it worthwhile to pull off a gallipoli landing vs the AI.

I'm playing with AI exp +2 so I'm thinking I would need 4 corps and a HQ striking in mid-1915 (prior to OE getting far on the entrenchment research track.) I'm thinking at going at gallipoli directly for the element of surprise and the fact that there's just much more place to land than Sedd El Bahr.

(Please don't give me the how-to... I'm trying to figure it out on my own!)

I have a couple of questions.

1- Assuming I'm loading my invasion troop load from Egypt, how would my readiness look like at landing time?

2- With a HQ sitting in Gallipoli how will my supply look like post landing if I don't have access (yet!) to Sedd El Bahr?

3- How much UK force will be available in Egypt by May 1915 by itself? (Need to plan how much must be ferried from the UK...)

[Korut Zelva]

4- Does the OE have an alternate capital, let's say it is captured, do they surrender outright?

5- Is the impact on Greece-Romania-Bulgaria each between 30-45% or is it a different fixed amount (within the afordmentioned bracket) for all three?

Edited June 8, 2016 by Korut Zelva

[Korut Zelva]

6- If Greece joins via Diplo chits, does it come fully mobilized or it joins in the same state as the Salonika decision?

[Bill101]

Hi

1. Very Low. Loading some up on Lemnos would be best.

2. The HQ would have supply 5, which isn't good for the troops it commands but if Sedd el Bahr is surrounded then you may in theory be able to capture it.

3. It depends what you do with the B.E.F. and Canadians. Some French could possibly carry out a supporting landing.

4. No, it only has Constantinople. Capturing that doesn't guarantee immediate Ottoman surrender, but what a blow it would strike.

5. The % can vary for each one, but all will move somewhere between 30 and 45% towards the Entente. Get some diplomacy to work and if both Romania and Bulgaria could be convinced to join your side, Constantinople would be really under threat.

That said, this would take time and MPPs and the overall war situation would also determine its potential.

6. The same as usual, so weak but a useful base. However, Greece isn't 100% necessary if you occupy Lemnos. Save MPPs for the invasion and then possible follow up, which could include diplomacy on Romania and Bulgaria if you are really successful.

This strategy is a high risk one with a low chance of success, but that doesn't mean it isn't worth attempting, and not necessarily in April 1915. Wait until later and land behind enemy lines in Syria or nearby too.

[Korut Zelva]

7- If I load up from Alexandria and then later let the amphibiuous ship spend a turn near the Lemnos port, will its supply increase?

I want to try a everything and the kitchen sink approach, foregoing Basra and egypt and just a big english spam of gallipoli then on to adrianople and constantinople. I'm thinking for Supply Adrianople is easier to get that on account that Sedd el Bahr is too cramped. I don't want to play unit swap when my supply is already in the pits.

Basically I'm banking that while the Serbian are still in there (and some Russian railcutting) that it will prevent any outside help and I could just overwhelm the OE as soon as it joins, striking before entranchment becomes a factor on that theather. Supply would be terrible but so are the stats of the OE units...

It's risky and even with the OE out of it, I would still have to contend with the long term consequence of a weaker English commitment in France for the first year of combat. I was banking that a mobilized Greece could have been used to march north to relieve the Serbian but sadly it seems that to access the Serbian front I would have to wait for the Salonika event to fire, Gallipoli or not...

[Korut Zelva]

Ok I can see why it is preferable to cycle units through Lemnos... those WW1 amphibious raft have no range!!!

Invasion about to begin... Stay tuned...

[Bill101]

Yes, researching Amphibious Warfare will increase their range, and as to 7. the answer is no, as their supply decreases by 1 per turn.

Good thing about the Marine units is they can evacuate without needing a port, unlike all others.

You are right about the risk and the fact that to go all out would weaken the British effort in France and Belgium in 1915...

[Korut Zelva]

Attempt 1 failed...

I had waited for the Agincourt to appear before moving my battleship fleet... I miscaculated the time it would take to get to greece so I had to launch my transport without sufficient protection. The Austrian fleet snuck in ended my dreams of Gallipoli before it started.

Attempt 2 is underway and even more Gambity. Instead of using the Belgians as roadblocks like I usually do this time I preserved 2 corp (1 of them unfit for combat a 1 strenght), 2 detachment and evacuated Prince Albert by sea after he soaked 3 hit (no damage) in the antwerp fortress. My thinking is the Belgians on the English behalf will act on the Continent. UK Elite Corp I was destroyed cutting a large number of troops and ended up being the roadblock in the belgian's stead. So with no UK troop on the mainland and Haig around the corner, I figured General French could be sent to Egypt to stall the Ottoman there. Since I plan to use Hamilton for the amphibious operation I need another HQ there or my garrison will not put much of a fight even if its just a side-show. 

For now the line stabilized just past Lilles, but the mine south of it won't produce anything for the Germans as it is besieged.

Btw Bill How much additional movement you do you get per Amphibious tech?

[Bill101]

You get +1 movement per level, so each level helps.

If you can give the Ottomans a good fight in Egypt then it will help your strategy elsewhere.

I do wonder if a Gallipoli landing attempted in early 1917 rather than 1915 might have really succeeded. In 1915 the Ottoman army was fresh and unbeaten, and so it was able to move reserves readily to hold ground against the landing.

But by early 1917 it was in a much worse state, and a Gallipoli landing then could have been more successful.

[Korut Zelva]

Ok attempt 2 worked but it was quite anti-climatic. The AI abandoned Sedd el Bahr and Gallipoli (in fear of my amphibious transport and or my ships???) Even Istanbul troops moved away (but was instantly regarrisoned by event). After smashing 1 corp and 1 detachment Istanbul is open.

Due to the number of Ottoman unit, I'll have 16% chance a turn of Ottoman surrender each turn once I have the capital under wraps.

The question is, should I take Istanbul with my Russian troop or my English Troops?

The Russian can use the income and morale but I'm worried that the Ottoman will be set free once Russia signs an armistice.

 

On the other front the scene as follows (aug 1915).

-Egypt was lost rapidly, General French couldnt save it. Everyone was wiped-out. The English have replaced the Belgian on the continent. The thick of the fighting is happening between Ypres and the Lilles mine. All but Ypres changed hands a couple of time. The germans have lifted the bloackade while all my big ships were clashing in the mediteranean vs the Austrian and Ottoman.

-Russia has been pushed out of Poland and are figthing a methodical retreat. The German are at the Riga's door. To the south I still hold the galician oil field and Romania will join the war next turn (diplo chit hit a 24% increase last turn). Serbia and Montenegro haven't lost a unit or a town yet. Blacksea fleet escaped into the meditarenean and will help out restablishing control of the North Sea... Russia morale at 75%...

-Stalemate in Italy.

In this game, Russia suffered the most from the plan. No english subsidy meant they couldn't afford to expand the industrial base. They didn't have enough money to replace troops both in Serbia and Russia... The lifting of the blockade was bad news too but I'm hoping the readiness of ships protecting shipping lanes will drop low enough for me to make a comeback... two two-medals AI ships are tough to crack...

[Bill101]

The question is, would the Russians taking Constantinople coupled with Romanian war entry and a resumption of the UK's supplies be enough to turn the war around in the east?

Given that you've lost Egypt I wonder if it might make most sense to boost up the Russians, but it's a risky thing either way.

[Korut Zelva]

Well this is turning into a mini-AAR.

UK supplies couldn't be resumed right away on account of the submarine interdiction (first raiding then unrestricted submarine warfare port closure). Romanian and Turkish mpp and Dardanelle trade (coupled with an industry tech success) saved Russia. Bulgaria joined not to long after Romania joined and I had to abandon my plan of a Transylvanian push for a bulgarian one. The UK took Sofia on there way to Serbia but Bulgaria didn't surrender so the Romanian had to do a lot of mopping up. 

It's April 1917, Russia pushed German back to its frontier in the baltic in the south Lemberg fell. Russia Morale is at 26%, Nicholas might have to abdicate ultimately but I think Karensky won't be toppled. Combined force of Hamilton and the Serb broke into the Plains of Hungary and the Italian got Trieste and cleared the mountains and will link with them soon. France and Belgians succeeded a breakthrough through the black forest area.

Morale across the board is Germany mid 30', AH 16, France 76, UK 56(!!!)

I don't know if that was a coincidence but when UK morale dipped lower than France, Germany started unrestricted submarine warfare. But only targeted the Russia-USA lane (Liverpool?) closing it. I was already in the process of buying lots of USA diplo chits and the unrestricted submarining probably account half of the 85% Mobilization. (It's been sitting there a while now... Russia could use the morale boost of an entry.) Now Germany turned its subs against my capital ships and we're having a climatic battle by the coast of England: The Entente navy vs the german one. Lots of ship sunk on both side but it seems the rest of the world will run out of fleet before they do. Still the disfavorable exchange rate is not so one-sided enough that I would have to worry of the UK pulling out of the war.

Another interesting bits:

-At some point in late 1915 its fleet abandoned blockading area and went to play in the baltic (hoping to find Russian ship, although they had never left port). I didn't have the assets to contest the area of the blockade, they should have stayed there.

-Germany has sub tech 2, but 90% of its sub fleet is tech 0. Oh what it could have been... I have anti-submarine tech but not enough destroyer to compete

-I had left a UK marine unit in Constantinople hoping it would recapture the capital as soon as Russia dropped out but I realize now that Turkey territory is Russia proper, so it's not going to do anything. Oh well, at least it prevented it capture by roaming bulgarians...

Question:

-What's the best management of the unrestricted warfare tile? Will it raise USA readiness faster if both Colonies and International trade shipping lane are interdicted? Does the number of submarine impacts the increase or its likelyhood of complaint? Do submarine have to be on the unrestricted warfare tile itself or next to it is ok? Does tech level impact the damage done to port or the morale decrease?

-How many years of continuous unrestricted submarine warfare it would take to make UK withdraw from the war? Germany got me to 56% in this game but there's not much room to be reduce more than that because to get there I lost Egypt (and all of the one time morale lost event) and the Royal Navy was probably halved. Getting the UK to 0 seems almost impossible especially with the 25% AI moral bonus.

-What does it take for the Bulgarian (and Belgian) to surrender after the last capital is taken? No non-HQ unit in the country proper? Less than 3 units total?

-Do Seaplane Carrier benefit from aircraft tech?

Edited June 13, 2016 by Korut Zelva

[Bill101]

I like your reference to the "exchange rate" in naval combat!

There's a whole section on Unrestricted Naval Warfare on this page, near the bottom, that should answer all your questions:

Seaplane Carriers do not benefit from Aircraft tech as they don't carry Fighters.

As to Minor countries surrendering once their capital is lost, if they have two units left within their territory then they won't surrender. If they've only got one unit left within their territory then they have a 50% chance of surrendering, and once they have no units left within their territory... bingo! 

[Korut Zelva]

Dang, I was hoping to improve flight range at least. And since they have a 'bomb' option maybe they benefited from bombers or ground attack.

Once my Gallipoli gambit game wraps up I'm thinking I'll try a run in winning by naval victory over the UK...

For it I'll play the Ostermarch campaign (minimize expenses in the West by fighting defense) and giving Italy what it wants (mainly to silence its fleet) and making a big ship refitting-sub push to put UK in the stranglehold...

[Bill101]

Ah, flight range is a different tech, that requires Long Range Aircraft, and Seaplane Carriers can upgrade with that.

[Korut Zelva]

Ok so my Gallipoli gambit game wrapped up...

Time for some final thoughts,

I think it would have still worked had the AI not left the place for me to take over (I'm still at a lost what triggered it). It would have been a bit more of a slug but I don't think it would have affected the timetable not the outcome.

Now could an early Gallipoli work vs a human? Surprisingly I would say it could under the right circumstance.

A timid push vs France could signal the Entente player that the UK can spare the unit and send them in the med.The Central Powers player would enticipate that meaning a more vigorous fight for Bagdad or Jerusalem. Someone particularly sneaky could deliberately make some bad play to doom a small Palestine push with the goal to entice a counter attack from the OE into Egypt... far away from their rail lines...

Russia can spare some rail cutters... and blockading the turkish with its fleet mine can serve as distraction while the Entente player have the amphibious units set up...  A strong naval presence in the med isn't suprising by itself as Entente player rountinely try to kill the AH fleet early. If you can still achieve surprise, you have a good chance of success. You only need a city of the four to be empty and the OE position gets impossibly precarious.

But the fate of the plan rest heavily on Serbia, I think it would require Russia to single out AH in 1914 to try to spare Serbia some time.

[Bill101]

I agree, and keeping the Central Powers guessing as to whether or not you will attempt a landing, and also where, as Gallipoli isn't the only good place to land at, is a good thing.