Russian army under equipped?

[ikalugin]

Back to post after a long absense.

(I did not read the stuff that I have missed).

In the next post I would get some updates on the whole new divisions story.

[ikalugin]

"со вчерашнего дня 150я мотострелковая дивизия приступила к выполнению задач по защите рубежей на юге страны" - Шойгу.

translation: "From yesterday the 150th MRD began it's operation in defense of our southern borders." - Shoigu

 

"Как отметил генерал армии Сергей Шойгу, в текущем году в Западном военном округе проведено около 100 организационных мероприятий, в том числе по завершению формирования двух  [3-й и 144-й] мотострелковых дивизий, подразделения которых размещены в Белгородской, Воронежской и Смоленской областях.

Дивизии полностью укомплектованы личным составом (70% — военнослужащие по контракту), а также оснащены современным вооружением, военной и специальной техникой. Созданы требуемые запасы материальных средств." - МО

translation "As Shoigu has noted this year in the Western MD 2 [3rd and 144th] MRDs have been formed, subunits of which are stationed in Belgorod, Voronezh and Smolensk regions. The divisions received their full authorised manpower (70 percent - contract troops), modern weapons and equipment. The required stocks were also created" - Shoigu/MoD

 

"1 декабря в Челябинской области начнёт учебный год недавно воссозданная [90-я] гвардейская Витебско-Новгородская дважды Краснознамённая танковая дивизия, для которой подготовлены новые директрисы, автодромы и тактические поля." - МО

translation "On the 1st of Decembder the training year of the newly formed [90th] TD, formed in Chelyabinsk area, begins, training fascilities for it were built." - MoD

 

"Впервые в составе 1-й гвардейской танковой армии Западного военного округа (ЗВО) в Московской области к занятиям по плану нового учебного года приступили два вновь сформированных полка [4-й гвардейской] Кантемировской танковой и [2-й гвардейской] Таманской мотострелковой дивизий." - МО

translation "for the first time within the 1st GrdsTA of the Western MD, in the Moscow region, the training year was began by the two newly formed regiments of the [4th] MRD and [2nd] TD." - MoD

 

 

If we compare that divisional force against the mechanized (and armoured) elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:

In total - 6 divisions:

- 2 TDs (4th and 90th)

- 4 MRDs (2nd, 3rd, 144th, 150th)

 

between them:

- 9-10 tank regiments (subject to the actual OOB of the 4th and 2nd)

- 13-14 motorised rifle regiments (subject to the actual OOB of the 4th and 2nd)

- 12 artillery and air defense regiments (6 of each)

- other misc assets

regimental OOBs and TO&E are standard

 

Ukrainian Ground Troops appear to have:

- 17th, 1st tnk BDEs - total of 2.

- 53rd, 54th, 92nd, 93rd, 30th, 72nd, 28th, 14th, 24th mech BDEs - total of 9.

- 56th, 57th, 58th, 59th mot BDEs - total of 4.

- 55th, 26th, 40th, 44th artillery BDEs - total of 4.
 

Considering how those units are roughtly compatable on paper if not in reality (except for mot BDEs, which are weaker than MRRs even on paper) you can see those 6 divisions alone have:

- more artillery units.

- more tank units.
- compatable number of infantry units.

Edited December 19, 2016 by ikalugin

[ikalugin]

How is this happening? Russian Armed Forces have relocated a number of brigades out of other areas to the Ukraine relevant areas over the past 3 years.

Some of those brigades were used to form the new divisions. Currently there are 2 additional divisions under formation - the 42nd MRD and 10th TD.

Now in addition to the divisions being formed, there are new brigades being formed, in place of the ones that were moved forward.

Those developments mean that in 2017-2018 time frame the balance of forces in terms of combat units (regiments and brigades) would be different to the 2014-2015 balance of forces, as in addition to the old structure (as the old units are maintained via formation of replacement brigades) the all new units (divisions) are being formed.

How is this growth possible in terms of manpower? It happened due to 3 simple causes:

- growth of the Armed Forces via contract troops.
- optimisation of manpower use, ie moving manpower from munitions disposal and base security to actually usefull roles.
- greater manpower efficiency of the new formations.

On the last point, let me illustrate it. The new divisions, having a 6 (3+1+1+1) regiment OOB are said to have their authorised manpower at 10k strong. The old BDE OOBs have between 4k and 5k per brigade. This means that a division, while having only twice the troops, has about 4 times as much combat power in it.

[ikalugin]

Also, my (very basic) analasys implies compatable quality of Ukrainian troops.

While the equipment problems are obvious (in terms of quality, as there is little to no trully new equipment being fielded by the Ukrainian Armed Forces) and could be accounted for in any calculations, it appears that in 2017 there may be problems with training and repairs if this social media statement (and other related news) is to be believed:

as according to it, over 80 percent are allocated to paying the troop's wages and conducting basic maintenance thus leaving very little for repairs, training and procurement.

p.s. if this turns out to be true, then Ukrainain Armed Forces may return to pre 2014 levels of combat capability due to the lack of training and manpower rotation in the near future. This is sort of ironic, as the Yanukovich era reductions were there to improve the Armed Forces capability via a decrease in the armed forces and reallocation of resources from maintaining the force to training it.

Edited December 19, 2016 by ikalugin

[ikalugin]

As a side note. The reports for 2016 year are comming in.

You may remember my claim about expansion of contract soldiers force. The plan for 2016 was increase from 352k to 384k
(http://function.mil.ru/files/morf/2015-12-11_MoD_board_extended_session_RUS.pdf end of the year report)
and it appears that the 384k objective was achieved

(https://youtu.be/mYbmJ7g-n5M current data)

Shoigu also states that this year 4 MRDs and 1 TD have been formed. I would make a more detailed post on the 3 reports, when the 2016 report is in and I have read it.

Edited December 22, 2016 by ikalugin

[ikalugin]

Kavkaz-2016 - during that exercise a grouping made out of 4 Armies was moved the distance of up to 2500km with full deployment and use of Front level C4I means.

"Наиболее масштабным мероприятием оперативной подготовки этого года стало стратегическое командно-штабное учение «Кавказ-2016». В ходе него проведены перегруппировки воинских частей четырех армий на расстояние до двух с половиной тысяч километров. Осуществлено полное развертывание систем управления объединений на новом театре военных действий. В итоге подтверждена способность органов военного управления эффективно руководить созданными группировками войск при возникновении угроз национальной безопасности на юге России."

p.s. I guess this is just my own news thread now, heh.

[John Kettler]

I was responding to the Raven EW debacle when, in researching Russian jamming vs Georgian drones, this turned up.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/09592310902975539

Carolina Vendil Pallin & Fredrik Westerlund (2009) Russia's war in

Georgia: lessons and consequences, Small Wars & Insurgencies, 20:2, 400-424, DOI:

10.1080/09592310902975539

 

Imagine the above article will be of prime interest to Steve and others. And this is simply too good not to post. From Page 410, Military Equipment, comes this howler.

(Fair Use)

"Not even the command of the 58th Army seems to have had fully functional vehicles. The headquarters command vehicle initially refused to start and eventually only got some 50 metres before the muffler fell off."

On a more serious note, this (Page 409) stood out. Bold mine.

(Fair Use)

"The Russian air force appears to have lacked the training and weapon systems

needed for high precision strikes in situations of low visibility. There are a

number of guided weapons in the air force weapons arsenal, but their use proved

to be limited in the Five-Day War. The maximum launch distance for the guided

weapons currently used by Russian attack aircraft is 12 kilometres, and the

guidance systems require flying on a straight course before and after launch,

exposing the aircraft to enemy air defence. Furthermore, the meteorological

conditions in Georgia during the war, with recurrent cloudiness and a low cloud

base, restricted the use of laser and TV guided weapons, which make up the bulk

of the guided weapons in the Russian arsenal."

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited December 22, 2016 by John Kettler

[ikalugin]

There was a reform and a rearmament program post 080808 war, which specifically targeted comunications as one of the main problems.

[John Kettler]

This is a useful, though overblown in title, look at Russia's military situation, especially as it applies to training and force modernization. Also of note is the value Russian operations in Syria have in terms not just of combat experience but of the opportunities to battle test new capabilities. The accompanying photo is a very strong argument showing why Su-27 series birds shouldn't cuddle!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/01834b09-0af5-3ac0-8764-c15b503aabc9/ss_russia%26%2339%3Bs-military-still.html

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited December 22, 2016 by John Kettler

[VladimirTarasov]

1 hour ago, John Kettler said:

This is a useful, though overblown in title, look at Russia's military situation, especially as it applies to training and force modernization. Also of note is the value Russian operations in Syria have in terms not just of combat experience but of the opportunities to battle test new capabilities. The accompanying photo is a very strong argument showing why Su-27 series birds shouldn't cuddle!

https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/01834b09-0af5-3ac0-8764-c15b503aabc9/ss_russia%26%2339%3Bs-military-still.html

Regards,

John Kettler

A SU-27 crashing into another SU-27 on a frozen runway does not show any lacking in the Russian training... It happens lol... Yahoo to get insight? Yikes...

But good thing you mentioned Syria; the MoD said 83% of the VKS aircrew has been rotated into Syria. So actually a very large portion of the Russian air force is being constantly rotated into Syria to gain combat experience and training from it. 

Edited December 23, 2016 by VladimirTarasov

[John Kettler]

VladimirTarasov,

Found the picture arresting and some of the insights regarding the Russian military worth considering. The US has plenty of aviation accidents, too. See, for example, the case of the ruptured canopy (from over pressurization) which sent the crew to the hospital and resulted in a huge stand down of the entire F/A-18 E/A/F and EA-18G fleet, save to meet operational requirements, such as in the Med off Syria. Are you really claiming 83% of all VKS (which I understand to mean what we customarily call RUAF here) flight crews have been rotated through Syria? If so, that's astounding and I'd appreciate a citation.

In other news, there is a very good article here on Russian EW. "How Good Is Russian Electronic Warfare? (Part 1)

https://russiandefpolicy.blog/category/air-forces/

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited December 23, 2016 by John Kettler

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

6 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

A SU-27 crashing into another SU-27 on a frozen runway does not show any lacking in the Russian training... It happens lol... Yahoo to get insight? Yikes...

But good thing you mentioned Syria; the MoD said 83% of the VKS aircrew has been rotated into Syria. So actually a very large portion of the Russian air force is being constantly rotated into Syria to gain combat experience and training from it. 

In the event NATO attacks with apartment blocks, I imagine this will be useful.  

[VladimirTarasov]

10 hours ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

In the event NATO attacks with apartment blocks, I imagine this will be useful.  

Not sure if you're trolling or... Experience is experience, I'm sure NATO has had the chance to attack a foe like Russia in total war right? C'mon now. 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

10 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Not sure if you're trolling or... Experience is experience, I'm sure NATO has had the chance to attack a foe like Russia in total war right? C'mon now. 

It's just a statement about the kinds of targets the Russian Air Force has been hitting.  You yourself saw this, and Aleppo bears witness to it.

In any event it's experience sure, but it's in the vacuum of still putting MIG-29s into the ocean, significantly less flight hours even with a lifted optempo, and an aging airfleet.  If I change the air freshener in my car, the car is somewhat improved. But it does nothing to fix the oil filter, low coolant and dead hobo in the trunk.  

[VladimirTarasov]

3 minutes ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

It's just a statement about the kinds of targets the Russian Air Force has been hitting.  You yourself saw this, and Aleppo bears witness to it.

In any event it's experience sure, but it's in the vacuum of still putting MIG-29s into the ocean, significantly less flight hours even with a lifted optempo, and an aging airfleet.  If I change the air freshener in my car, the car is somewhat improved. But it does nothing to fix the oil filter, low coolant and dead hobo in the trunk.  

I'll ignore the dead hobo part for the sake of your well being  well aside from losing a few aircraft most of them due to stupid mistakes the Russian intervention in Syria was a success speaking strictly militarily. It has showed some of our weaknesses once again, but also it helped us gain valuable knowledge in the long run. I won't go into the politics of course, but I'd think militarily Russia has enjoyed success in Syria. 

The ageing air fleet is true for a portion of it, Russia is still trying to modernize its fleet. It wont be like the US air force of course... But we're working with what we have. Also flight hours actually vary... Nothing to criticize active Russian pilots in Syria there for. One plane from the SU-24 series had I believe a 100 stars which marks ten strike missions each. 

[Battlefront.com]

For sure Russia's wars in Syria and in Ukraine are helpful to the Russian armed forces in relative terms, but on the absolute scale I agree with PzKraut about the absolute value of this in the event of a conflict with the West.  Learning how to drop cluster munitions on civilian neighborhoods that are not defended by useful anti-air assets is not going to be useful in a war against NATO.  Even if the pilots get through the air defenses and back home without crashing or being shot down, I don't see what terrorizing civilians achieves from a military standpoint.

Steve

[HerrTom]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure Russia's wars in Syria and in Ukraine are helpful to the Russian armed forces in relative terms, but on the absolute scale I agree with PzKraut about the absolute value of this in the event of a conflict with the West.  Learning how to drop cluster munitions on civilian neighborhoods that are not defended by useful anti-air assets is not going to be useful in a war against NATO.  Even if the pilots get through the air defenses and back home without crashing or being shot down, I don't see what terrorizing civilians achieves from a military standpoint.

Steve

While I agree in that the combat pilots are not getting much more experience than they would be getting at a live fire range (apart from identifying real targets in a real combat zone - apartment block or not), there is one branch that is getting a lot of critical experience in the RuAF: Ground crews.

To quote General Barrow: "Amateurs think about tactics - professionals think about logistics."  The Russians are getting a lot of very good experience in managing logistics trains from the ground crews to ordinance expenditures and ready rates.  While I'm sure many of us like to think of the heroic soldier turning the tide of the battle, in reality war is a numbers game, and the numbers lie largely in the noncombat personnel.

Everything else on top can definitely be a factor in war, but without sound logistacl means, they mean nothing.  And that's definitely something the Russians have shown as a weakness.  And there's no doubt in my mind that they'll be fixed in short order.

[Battlefront.com]

Oh yes, on that front Russia is gaining more useful information and experience than everything else put together.  Learning how close one can buzz a US warship without crashing is not nearly as useful as figuring out how to move tons of munitions from the Black Sea down to Syria.  Learning how to fix an arrestor cable on an aircraft so planes don't crash in the ocean due to lack of fuel is also good to know.  So yes, both Syria and Ukraine are definitely helping Russia learn how to operate better away from its bases under real world conditions.

That said...

There is a danger of taking the wrong lessons from these experiences.  For example, NATO forces have been focused on COIN and MOUT warfare for over a decade now.  The amount of collective experience NATO has with operating in remote arid conditions is extensive.  However, if there's suddenly a 50,000 fully mechanized Russian force moving across the Baltics in the middle of the winter... the experience of getting a month's worth of supplies to a remote FOB in a mountain somewhere isn't going to be very applicable.  It is why NATO is scrambling to unlearn parts of its recent experiences and relearn things it used to know well 20 years ago.

The Russians face the same danger of learning to fight the last war and not learning how to fight the next one.  It is a common problem through the ages.  I'm sure Russia is gaining all kinds of knowledge and experience about how to wage wars of denial in other countries, but I don't think that is going to help move an army across the Baltics.

Sometimes it is better to start with no experience than to start with the wrong experience.  No specific examples to make here, just stating that as a basic truth to consider.

Steve

[VladimirTarasov]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sometimes it is better to start with no experience than to start with the wrong experience.  No specific examples to make here, just stating that as a basic truth to consider.

Experience from I believe 50 aircraft, plus special forces on the ground is really going to make Russia focus on COIN and MOUT? The amount of Russians in Syria cannot be compared to the amount that was in Afghanistan or Iraq by coalition forces. If Russia is going to smash the Baltics it's not gonna matter much if we did operations in Syria... Our forces are still very much geared for conventional war. The Syria experience was not only good for logistics but also for air force command. And mind you the war in Syria isn't much of a coin environment, rebel forces operate like conventional forces as well. Well... Minus the part where they blow their selves up for military success.  The RuAF has targeted other things other than apartment blocks lol... 

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

3 hours ago, VladimirTarasov said:

  The RuAF has targeted other things other than apartment blocks lol... 

Hospitals, aid convoys, and markets too!  LOLZ!

[VladimirTarasov]

4 minutes ago, panzersaurkrautwerfer said:

Hospitals, aid convoys, and markets too!  LOLZ!

Corrections, hospitals where the enemy has been hoarding ammunition and arms, as well as HQs. Aid convoys? No just no. Markets? Re: hospital cases. You know how much last hospitals there were in East Aleppo? like 30. Let's get a grip on ourselves. I mean don't treat your neighbors so harsh, we're basically next to each other. You guys have gone through the same process with terrorists using urban environments, including hospitals and schools as military zones. 

We've also targeted enemy tanks, armored vehicles, trench systems, tunnels, bunkers, ect. ect. My favorite one would have to be enemy HQs. 

[JUAN DEAG]

19 minutes ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Corrections, hospitals where the enemy has been hoarding ammunition and arms, as well as HQs. Aid convoys? No just no. Markets? Re: hospital cases. You know how much last hospitals there were in East Aleppo? like 30. Let's get a grip on ourselves. I mean don't treat your neighbors so harsh, we're basically next to each other. You guys have gone through the same process with terrorists using urban environments, including hospitals and schools as military zones. 

I don't think panzersaurkrautwerfer is talking about hospitals that are used as firing positions because in that case it is justified to target the hospital. The issue comes from bombing hospitals that are used for hospital-ing. Especially when Russia denies this:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/11/09/fact-checking-russias-claim-didnt-bomb-another-hospital-syria/

 

 

[VladimirTarasov]

3 minutes ago, JUAN DEAG said:

I don't think panzersaurkrautwerfer is talking about hospitals that are used as firing positions because in that case it is justified to target the hospital. The issue comes from bombing hospitals that are used for hospital-ing. Especially when Russia denies this:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2016/11/09/fact-checking-russias-claim-didnt-bomb-another-hospital-syria/

 

 

Look without going off topic, this can be debated back and forth. I think we'll both agree that there are many evidences that the opposition uses Mosques, Hospitals, Schools for military purposes. I'll list some so people who don't follow up don't think I'm BSing.

https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/812427435518136320

 

[JUAN DEAG]

1 hour ago, VladimirTarasov said:

Look without going off topic, this can be debated back and forth. I think we'll both agree that there are many evidences that the opposition uses Mosques, Hospitals, Schools for military purposes. I'll list some so people who don't follow up don't think I'm BSing.

https://twitter.com/MIG29_/status/812427435518136320

I'm not denying it.

[John Kettler]

This long KAVKAZ-2016 video popped up in my YT sidebar and looked potentially interesting. It was! Full of goodies, with lots of usually unseen naval material. Useful analysis of the exercise at the end.
 

Regards,

John Kettler