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Except that Dresden was a city in Nazi Germany a country that along with Japan and Hiroshima and Nagasaki started ww2. Germany introduced terror bombing of civilians to the world - zeppelin raids in ww1, Guernica, Rotterdam, Warsaw, Coventry and London.. etc etc

The Japanese perpetrated the rape of Nanking, unit 731s activities, universally killed PoWs cannibalized some torturted almost all. They also had no compunction raping women and kidnapping women to staff brothels.

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that if Japan or Germany could have firebombed Allied cities like we did theirs they gleefully would have just as Ive no doubt they would have used nukes in a heartbeat.

This is different than the Donbaaa because the civilians living are being killed as a result of a Russian orchestrated war for no reason other than the gain of Russias top 1 percent. The wars not about miners or the people of Donbass its about tryn to grab old Russian territory, fear of becoming irrelevant to the rest of the world, good ol fashioned bullying, and Russias almost psychopathic paranoia of the West wanting to invade Russia.

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I think what Sublime is getting at is there's an accountability difference.  The US does not deny it firebombed Dresden or nuked Japan.  In my opinion, and this is recently borne out by President Obama's visit to Japan, the US is even a bit remorseful in that it believes it was the best course of action given the options, however it wishes things had been different (i.e. Germany or Japan giving up when they were obviously beat).  The US is also not looking to repeat what it did in Vietnam and is doing its best to mend fences with Vietnam.  In fact, I heard an interview last week with Bob Kerry who is, in Vietnam's eyes, a war criminal to many and yet he's got the approval of the Communist government to help with setting up the first ever independent higher education center in Vietnam.

Compare this with the Russian government, which does backflips to not only avoid taking responsibility for its bad actions, but very often outright refusing to admit to even the most basic facts/logic.  Even when it's painfully obvious, such as the invasion of Crimea or the war in Donbas or the shooting down of MH-17, or killing thousands of Syrian civilians, etc. etc.

How can there be an acceptance of responsibility when the guilty party refuses to admit it ever happened or it was in any way involved?

Even if the war in Donbas started out as a civil war (which is utter nonsense), it certainly isn't now.  It's a proxy war with Russia and only Russia keeping it going.  So if a Russian is really and honestly concerned about the preservation of life, then they should be pressuring their government to switch to a political solution instead of one of death.  Of course this is not likely to do much because Russians have very little say in what their government does, but at least they could stop supporting it (and repeating Kremlin propaganda lies is support).

Steve

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An issue with making comparisons to Dresden & Hiroshima. WWII earns the title of the greatest disaster in world history with the number of dead reaching an est. seventy million, including 20 million dead civilians in Europe alone. Mao's Cultural Revolution came in a distant second with 40 million dead. This means no matter how horribly a nation state acts towards their neighbors these days they can always point to someone 70+ years ago who acted worse. It skews history to use the unprecedented carnage of WWII as a relative comparison. Its like using the plague years in Europe as a measure of how well your public health system is doing. Of course you'll come off looking good when comparing yourself to THAT.

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Yes thank you steve you put it better than I. I was alluding to accountability and also the fact that if you compare those WW2 bombings they both happened to the nation states that started the conflict.  The Ukr or Donbass did not start this ukraine business - so really if you want to compare ukr now and those bombings of Axis powers you should make up a scenario where St Petersburg is levelled, as this entire mess started with Russia.

 

Also thats an AWFUL line of reasoning that " well its ONLY 10k people". I mean easy for us to say but of course if you live in the region and that number includes friends family or you it looks different.

People endlessly discuss Syria, Iraq, and believe it or not yes people do discuss Darfur and the south Sudan genocide. Quite a bit especially a few years ago when it was at its height.

The other "well noone is talking about z y or z matter" firstly is an opinion. Second its wrong and minimizes a tragedy for no good reason. It was akin to the disgust that led me to delete my FB - when the Paris attacks happened I randomly would see comments from people heavily involved in Black Lives Matter actually complaining about peoples sympathy towards Paris becauae "no one talked about x shooting in Kenya a few months ago" 

Whether or not Kenya was discussed doesnt make Paris any less awful and they were wrong anyways Kenya was discussed in some places its just hard to keep track of random acts of terror and tragedy on the African continent since thats basically the nature of things there sadly

Edited by Sublime
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3 hours ago, Sublime said:

Also thats an AWFUL line of reasoning that " well its ONLY 10k people". I mean easy for us to say but of course if you live in the region and that number includes friends family or you it looks different.

 

No, it is a perfectly legitimate topic and argument on a "war gaming" forum. Civilian deaths are always a tragedy, but they are not more tragic because they occurred 2 years ago, instead of 50 years ago.

There have been 2,500 civilian deaths in the "Donbas war", tragic yes, but it still means that it is a very minor conflict even by the standards of the 21st century.

At the risk of repeating myself: Iraq (2003-11)  100,000+ civilians killed, including 10-15,000 estimated killed by coalition forces; Afghanistan (2001-14) 90,000+ civilians killed including 5,000 estimated killed by coalition forces. U.S. Drones have also killed at least 1,000 civilians.

Now if you are a civilian, is it worse to be killed  by the Russians for what they perceive to be their national interest or by the Americans for what they perceive to be their national interest? I think a civilian would just say: "Hey, just don't kill me!". :D

p.s. - since it seems I always have to repeat it, No, I do not condone what the Russians are doing in Ukraine just like I thought the invasion of Iraq was a dumb idea. :P

Edited by Sgt Joch
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1 hour ago, Holien said:

Or the vacationers fighting in France?

A Clear planned attack and then Russia media blames anyone other than the attackers! (Where have we seen that before?)

The state of Russia is a sad thing to behold.

Although England fans have something of a reputation for trouble making themselves and were doing a fine job of causing disturbances and getting arrested in the preceding days too in the absence of any Russians. I suspect the England fans can be assigned a decent share of the blame here.

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1 hour ago, Sgt Joch said:

No, it is a perfectly legitimate topic and argument on a "war gaming" forum. Civilian deaths are always a tragedy, but they are not more tragic because they occurred 2 years ago, instead of 50 years ago.

True, but as the old saying goes... "different times, different standards".  Each generation has expected less reckless regard for civilian life than the one before it.  The cultures/countries which don't keep up with the times should be criticized more heavily than those who are least put in an effort.

For example, in the 10 years of war in Iraq, fought on a broad scale by US forces, the civilian casualties is perhaps upwards of 15,000.  In comparison, estimates are that a tiny Russian force killed 2,000 in just 6 months.  Just as importantly, the US public position is "we regret the loss of civilian life and we work hard to minimize it" while the Russian position is "we haven't killed any civilians.  100% of our bombs killed terrorists" (which also includes people fighting against a genocidal regime as "terrorists").

Does it make the civilian death more tragic in one situation than another?  On one level, no.  However, when the civilians belong to a nation state that started a bloody war, in which they showed little mercy on other civilian populations, I do inherently have less sympathy for them vs. civilians in an area that was subjected to an outright war of aggression.  That's the difference between Dresden and Donetsk, with Fallujah falling somewhere in between.

28 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Although England fans have something of a reputation for trouble making themselves and were doing a fine job of causing disturbances and getting arrested in the preceding days too in the absence of any Russians. I suspect the England fans can be assigned a decent share of the blame here.

Absolutely.  Check out this documentary on English football fans in France:

:D

Steve

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What Steve said. Just like therea a difference in countries renouncing without any coercion the use of napalm, cluster bombs, chem weapons etc. (US)

vs say Russia which frankly doesnt care and will use what it wants. No it doesnt make it easier for a civilian who he.s killed by it sucks either way. Doesnt that kind of contradict your argument that the Donbass is somehow less important because the body count is less than Iraq for example? For one the Donbass isnt over and for two ya theres less dead but do you think any of the dead civilians would feel any better that a lot more Iraqis were killed? No of course not

Then of course theres the absolute Russian notoriety to not care about civilian casualties or collateral damage unless its another countries fault. Then its an unheard of outrage. But 100 percent of all Russian bombs- even clusterbombs ddropped over residential areas or bombs dropped over cities by helos in level flight - didnt kill any civilians. Nor does Georgia, Chechnya or Afghanistan in the 80s have any sort of track record for tryn to not hit civvies or minimize collateral damage.

Afghanistan saw perhaps the most savage and blatant human rights violations but Chechnyas rife with examples too.

Of course US troops commit atrocities too and of course we.ve accidentally bombed civilians. But we dont deny it categorically as a matter of course and make absurd 100% results stories up. Nothing in the world - ESPECIALLY MILITARY OPS IN COMBAT - comes through 100 percent on target. We dnt get that with even all smart weapons being used let alone iron bombs.

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3 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Although England fans have something of a reputation for trouble making themselves and were doing a fine job of causing disturbances and getting arrested in the preceding days too in the absence of any Russians. I suspect the England fans can be assigned a decent share of the blame here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36510671

The similarities are all in how it is reported and each countries responses.

;)

The UK has a number of numpties abroad but they are outside the stadiums the mass Russian attack has taken it to a new level.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36510550

Nice video Steve.

 

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One really has to wonder with aggressive or crazy incident after incident happening with the Russians and seemingly always started by them if Russias govt is trying to demonize itself into a N Korea like hermit state where Putin wouldnt have ANY outside influences...?

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6 hours ago, Sublime said:

One really has to wonder with aggressive or crazy incident after incident happening with the Russians and seemingly always started by them if Russias govt is trying to demonize itself into a N Korea like hermit state where Putin wouldnt have ANY outside influences...?

I've mentioned this several times in this thread... to some degree yes. 

An authoritarian system/ideology needs to distract people from competing systems/ideologies.  Because fear is one of Humanity's strongest and most easily manipulable attributes, that is the one used more than any other.  All authoritarian systems/ideologies create an "external enemy" and an "internal enemy" to convince people that they have more to fear than the regime itself.  Coupled with that is creating a belief that the regime represents the people's best alternative to these "enemy" forces.  For repressive states it's nationalism (culture, language, religion, and other things factor into this), for repressive religions it is a path to Heaven (in general terms).  Most repressive states also tie themselves in with repressive religions to some extent or another, sometimes to such an extreme that there is no line of distinction between state and religion.

This is coupled with the twin concepts of "struggle" and "sacrifice".  The struggle is to keep hostile forces from trying to ruin the benefits that the regime/ideology provides.  And that struggle requires some degree, perhaps a lot, of sacrifice.  This can take many forms and can shift in emphasis and severity as the regime/ideology requires.  When times are genuinely tough, more sacrifice.  When times are better, less sacrifice.  The successful regimes/ideologies tend to be the ones that are flexible and impose the least amount of sacrifice required to stay in power.

To use the "grass is always greener on the other side of the fence" concept, the repressive regimes try to convince people of the following:

  • the highest ideal is having green grass in your yard
  • the grass in the home yard is beautifully green, the grass in other yards is not
  • forces are at work, both at home and in the neighboring yards, which seek to take away the green grass and replace it with brown grass or dirt
  • the struggle to keep the grass green against these forces is constant and requires sacrifices
  • without the regime to organize things, the struggle would fail and people would have brown grass or dirt
  • anybody that doesn't see it this way is an enemy of the home yard and is trying to weaken or kill the grass

In Russia's case, NATO is the primary external foe as it has been since its founding.  It is a very easy one for Putin to continue making Russians fearful of.  Even after Russia was invited to become a part of NATO (at least as an observer at NATO HQ) and NATO dramatically scaled down its capabilities over the last 20+ years, Russia has maintained it as an enemy.  Lately, however, there has been talk in NATO countries about disbanding NATO or otherwise dramatically changing its role.  Their argument?  NATO was built to confront a threat that no longer exists.  If NATO were to go away this would require inventing a new external military threat and so I have *NO* doubt that Putin's recent direct provocations are intended to make sure NATO sticks around.  Even better if it expands, because now Putin can say the threat is increasing.

On the economic side, the West as a whole is portrayed as a threat to Russia.  Putin portrays the West as deliberately engaging in activities to weaken Russia as a state through discriminatory/predatory economic collusion.  Even the depressed oil prices are blamed on the West through collusion with Saudi Arabia.  The poor state of internal Russian economic activity is blamed on the West as well, claiming that Russian companies can't compete fairly against Western ones for a litany of reasons.  So on and so forth.

Recently, however, Putin has increased the propaganda against Western culture.  Individual freedoms are equated with being the seeds of destruction of an orderly society.  Freedom of speech and assembly are portrayed as causing things like riots and terrorism in the West, not as a means of minimizing them.  The Russian language is being sidelined by other languages and is not being given the respect it deserves.  Homosexuality is viewed in typical homophobic terms that if you talk with someone whose gay then you become gay and being gay is being weak.  Religions that compete with the Russian Orthodox teachings are trying to prevent Russians from going to heaven.  Etc. etc.

In recent years Putin has pushed the specific angle of fear against radical Islam and terrorism as a major threat to Russians.  This is something that touches on all three of these things rather than being its own category.  Similarly, Putin has branded NGOs and rights based advocacy/aid programs as forms of terrorism.  Or in Soviet/Putin speak "foreign agents".

All countries have all of these things going on all of the time to some degree or another.  Certainly anybody honestly looking at the current political atmosphere in the US can clearly see strong examples of this coming from Donald Trump and his overt supporters.  Fear mongering, distortion of truth, rejection of debate, etc. are all hallmarks of Trump as a person and of his campaign.  The difference is that some countries allow this sort of harmful nonsense to become official state policy to such an extreme that the entire system of governance is built upon them.  As much as people in the US might view some of the Bush/Obama approaches to fighting terrorism as violating due process or rule of law, they are exceptions rather than the rule.  In Russia, as with other autocratic states, the exceptions are when the state allows for due process and the rule of law.  It's all about emphasis rather than purity.

But hey... what do I know... I'm just a game developer :)

Steve

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Steve,

Not bad as a Summary of Russia under Putin, but it misses something....Dependency Theory & Cognitive Dissonance.

Dependency Theory.

This, as I remember it from 30 years ago is an alternative to theories of Colonialism, says that it's not about one nation v another, but that elites in Countries have a shared interest in ruling at the expense of the majority in both.

Thus the "Our Country first" sort of popular nationalism both Putin and Trump rallies the people behind the flag because of fear, or more acutely Loss Aversion (we cling to what we have and will defend it).

Meanwhile the billionaires in both Country act with impunity accumulating vast wealth while the standard of living of most in both Countries stagnates.

I am no commie, hoping for Revolution or class war, but behind all Putins rhetoric against the Evil West or the threat from Nato, none of it stops him and his cronies robbing Russians blind, stealing billions and transferring it from the faltering Russian economy into Western banks and property.

Meanwhile millions of Americans are backing Trump because he promises to make "America Great Again", but in policy terms is advocating more tax cuts for the wealthiest and policies that will almost certainly push up federal debt, one of his supporters biggest concerns.

It's almost like the public in both countries are little more than playthings for the people at the top!

Cognitive Dissonance.

Peoples natural tendency to organise the facts to give them the desired result.

Why to people believe Populist politicians and there simplistic solutions, sweeping statements and demonising "Others"....because they want too!

The appeal of someone who can "Make It Go Away" those magic words everyone wants to deal with whatever their problem is makes it very appealing and so like being at the movies, we suspend "Disbelief" and are willing to believe that someone strong, or successful or different can solve those frustrating intractable problems that beset us.

Peter.

 

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I do hafta hand u that JK even if by numbers WW2 does pass the famous 1347 Black Death in Europe outbreak it still wouldnt have been as much relative to percent of europes populace. God what awful times.

I wonder what Genghis Khans body count or deaths attributable to his army is. Wikipedia away!

Edit: Says 40 mil. 10 percent of the worlds populace at the time.pretty horrific considering it was almost entirely done with arrows and hand weaponry

Edited by Sublime
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On 6/16/2016 at 8:11 PM, Peter Cairns said:

Steve,

Not bad as a Summary of Russia under Putin, but it misses something....Dependency Theory & Cognitive Dissonance.

Dependency Theory.

This, as I remember it from 30 years ago is an alternative to theories of Colonialism, says that it's not about one nation v another, but that elites in Countries have a shared interest in ruling at the expense of the majority in both.

Thus the "Our Country first" sort of popular nationalism both Putin and Trump rallies the people behind the flag because of fear, or more acutely Loss Aversion (we cling to what we have and will defend it).

Meanwhile the billionaires in both Country act with impunity accumulating vast wealth while the standard of living of most in both Countries stagnates.

I am no commie, hoping for Revolution or class war, but behind all Putins rhetoric against the Evil West or the threat from Nato, none of it stops him and his cronies robbing Russians blind, stealing billions and transferring it from the faltering Russian economy into Western banks and property.

Meanwhile millions of Americans are backing Trump because he promises to make "America Great Again", but in policy terms is advocating more tax cuts for the wealthiest and policies that will almost certainly push up federal debt, one of his supporters biggest concerns.

It's almost like the public in both countries are little more than playthings for the people at the top!

Cognitive Dissonance.

Peoples natural tendency to organise the facts to give them the desired result.

Why to people believe Populist politicians and there simplistic solutions, sweeping statements and demonising "Others"....because they want too!

The appeal of someone who can "Make It Go Away" those magic words everyone wants to deal with whatever their problem is makes it very appealing and so like being at the movies, we suspend "Disbelief" and are willing to believe that someone strong, or successful or different can solve those frustrating intractable problems that beset us.

Peter.

 

For sure.  And there are people who were born and raised in a pluralistic America that would gleefully shove people into gas chambers if given the right circumstances to do it.  In any sampling of Humanity you are going to have the full range of personality disorders.  And there is always a struggle between the haves to keep everything away from the have nots, whether it be Nigeria or Denmark.  The difference is that some forms of government discourage the bad behaviors less than others, some actively support bad behavior more than others.  Everything is relative and systems of government should be judged against that relative scale, not some idealistic notion that has never existed and never will. 

Steve

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Hm, wanted to create a short summary thread about this year's changes and events in Russian military, but this will do. I think it is important to look at these as we are coming closer to the 2017 date in CMBS. 

  • Black overalls have made a return for tank crews
  • Hard-top helmets are now the standard attire for arctic and Western MD AFV crews.
  • Non MBT crews now carry infantry vests. 
  • As of this month third company batch of T-14's has hit army testing.
  • As of end of this week BUK-M3 complex has completed army trials and is now gearing for procurement. 
  • As of mid June SVDM is now being supplied to Russian army. Main difference with old SVD and SVDS is the unified SV-98 free-floating barrel which should translate to higher accuracy. Tentatively these are being supplied to high readiness formations (mostly VDV). 
  • As of early June "Nebo-U" radar complexes are now in serial production alongside their 2012 variants. These are reported deploying to Western MD. 
  • As of late May company scale batches of T-72B3's are now in service with the air-mobile arm of the VDV. 
  • As of late May improved "liven'" GLONASS stations have now hit Western MD. This marks the move to a third generation SatCon network.
  • As of late May S-300V4 (in army service since 2014) has finally received a high-powered rocked designed to combat AWACS type targets at Maximum cited distance of 400km. 
  • As of late April BMD-4M and BTR-MD are in official VDV service. This marks a new attempt at departure from BMD-2 vehicle line as previous attempts at servicing new IFV's (BMD-3 and BMD-4) have not been successful. Currently a total of 350 new vehicles have been budgeted in a three year contract. 
  • As of late April RS-24 is being delivered to five SR Regiments. 
  • According to MoD, as of mid April around 900 exercises took place across 100 different locations from the beginning of 2016. Some MoD figures include a total of 100K hours in-air between Naval and VKS aviation, 3K days for surface water navies and 600 days for submarine crews. 
  • As of mid-April "Arbalet-MD" armed Tigr vehicles are now being procured. 
  • 2016 Spring draft marked a historic moment where the amount draftees exceeded draft requirements. 
  • As of beginning of 2016 VKS (Air forces) marked a 52% modern equipment ratio. "Modern equipment" is an ambiguous term that more often then not indicates the ratio of procured vehicles with service life under 15 years.
  • As of February 1000 full Ratnik complexes have been delivered to Southern MD in addition to a full 80K shipments of last year.
  • As of January around 50% of VKS helicopter fleet are Mi-28 and Ka-52 platforms.
  • As of 2015 end around 352K professional soldiers were present in the ground forces, which added up to around 50%. With staffing at 92%, current plans are to make sergeant roles professional as well. By 2017 the plan is to have around 425K professionals, and this looks to be currently on track.
  • Year end marked the total amount of various UAV's increase to a figure of 1.7 thousand. 
  • Syrian campaign showed that Vitebsk countermeasures are now mounted by default on all helicopter types in war zones.
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1 hour ago, kinophile said:

Is it a morale/unit status thing? 

Just a convenience issue really, I think. 

Also, one clarification on a grammatical mistake I made - 352K of contractors were present across all *armed* forces, which then added up to about 50% of *all* personnel in the army. The percentage of contractors in the ground forces is currently the highest of all branches and the aim is to replace all combat roles with contractors by 2021.

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10 hours ago, BTR said:

Hm, wanted to create a short summary thread about this year's changes and events in Russian military, but this will do. I think it is important to look at these as we are coming closer to the 2017 date in CMBS. 

(...)

Great info

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29 minutes ago, BTR said:

Just a convenience issue really, I think. 

Also, one clarification on a grammatical mistake I made - 352K of contractors were present across all *armed* forces, which then added up to about 50% of *all* personnel in the army. The percentage of contractors in the ground forces is currently the highest of all branches and the aim is to replace all combat roles with contractors by 2021.

BTR, I've been searching all over for our ground force's numbers, how much is it? I think as of 2016 it was like 395,000 right? I may be wrong, the only clear number I got was from the Russian wiki page. 

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Some clarifications (I don't really visit these forums anymore, but this was brought to my attention):

-352k figure is for total contract troops (privates and NCOs) in the Armed Forces. This gives 1 to 1 ratio of contract troops (privates and NCOs) to conscripted troops (privates and NCOs) in the Armed Forces as of the end of the 2015.

For the Ground Forces they have somewhat above ~50 percent in terms of contract troops vs conscript troops ratio. By 2021 this intends to go to figure of 80 percent of contract troops (privates and NCO), meaning that Ground Forces would become a nearly pure contract troops (privates and NCOs) force.

This shows that, because Ground Forces do not include VDV, Naval Infantry, Specnaz or other forces viewed as "elite" by the western obserers, there is no special allocation to the "elite" forces, because Ground Forces not only have higher than average percentage of contract troops (privates and NCOs) in their ranks as of the end of 2015 (somewhat higher than the 50 percent average ratio for contract troops vs consript troops), but also plan to de facto go all pro (by 2021) while the overall Armed Forces would retain conscripts (with overall ratio of ~5/3 between contract troops and conscripted troops).

Thus the notion of "elite" units of forces receiving contract troops or being the sole combat capable forces is no longer supported by the evidence, nor is the notion that Russian Armed Forces are being prepared to fight limited and/or hybrid wars supported by the evidence (as noted by a CSIS report: "wo trends should be emphasized. First, Russia is not modernising its military primarily to extend its capacity to pursue hybrid warfare. It is modernising conventional military capability on a large scale; the state is mobilising for war." source )

Another interesting point to note is that Ground Forces (and Russian Armed Forces overall) are expanding, Ground Forces plan to expand by ~1/3 through 2015-2021 time frame and this is done by expanding the pool of contract troops rapibly (298-352 growth in 2015, up to 499k overall by 2020). There is also a drive for internal optimsation in terms of manpower such as the transfer of infrastructure to the civilian authorities (and thus freeing manpower from guarding it, throught the reform this has provided tens of thousands in manpower terms).

Sources (that are not listed in text directly, for the materials themselves ask BTR, as I do not visit these forums often):
- end of 2015 report by MoD (in Russian).
- interview by CINC Ground Forces (in Russian).
 

Edited by ikalugin
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