Armata soon to be in service.

[John Kettler]

Codename Duchess,

 

Many thanks for this post . A most worthwhile article which sheds a great deal of light on a host of Russian AFV related matters. To build a tank that costs substantially more than an Abrams but isn't competitive with it sounds like something like the F-35 program in which the latest and the greatest can't begin to handle an F-16 in a dogfight and costs many multiples of its cost, too.  The comments are a great read, especially the direct confirmation there will be a T-90AM. The upgrade costs to convert T-72s to the latest configuration are pretty staggering. As I thought, the place supplying the ceramic armor is indeed a big deal. Know to intel and S&T types during the Cold War as NII Stal, it is the premier metallurgical/ceramics/other armor material RDTE and, apparently, production operation in all of Russia. It has no peer. For it to produce an armor breakthrough is wholly to be expected, for that is where the expertise lies at all levels. It was, I believe, NII Stal, which came up with the ceramic pellet armor inserts for a bunch of Cold War Russian tank turret faces. And with the T-14 program clearly in all sorts of trouble, more magical thinking has surfaced! Somehow Russia is now going to buy at least 50 Tu-160/BLACKJACK supersonic strategic heavy bombers and produce these simultaneously with the PAK FA. 

 

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/2015/07/12/russian-fleets-crashing-ukraine-nato-fighter-bomber/29962399/

 

And that must be set against the increasingly deadly combination of high OP TEMPO and aged planes. The short form characterization being used is "The Russian Air Force is Falling Out of the Sky." That isn't just some anti-Russian western propaganda, either, for the tale is the same on both ends. We know this because a source within MoD has provided insider details.

 

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/air-space/2015/07/12/russian-fleets-crashing-ukraine-nato-fighter-bomber/29962399/

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler

Edited July 22, 2015 by John Kettler

[Baneman]

Duplicate link, John - typo or was there only meant to be one ?

[Codename Duchess]

Actually last I heard the PAK FA is being limited to a dozen aircraft. I remember posting sources much earlier in this thread or a comparable one. I wonder how India feels about this. Last I heard they were immensely dissatisfied with the program.

[Thewood1]

The report I saw is that India is not happy and is threatening to pull out.  If that happens the PAK TA might never get beyond pre-production.  India was funding most of that.

[John Kettler]

Baneman,

 

Good catch. Here is the Tu-160/BLACKJACK link.

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-buy-least-50-tu-160-blackjack-bombers-production-likely-complete-ahead-time-1941450

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler

Edited July 22, 2015 by John Kettler

[Battlefront.com]

Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg in an Oxford Analytica brief  says that program costs have increased to 2.5 times the projection from the State Armaments Program for 2020.  He also says that production capability from Uralvagonzavod will only allow about 300+ tanks by 2020, vice the thousands some have claimed.  I haven't cross-checked these myselves, but given the nature of fancy acquisition projects, this doesn't surprise me at all.

 

Gee, I'm surprised. Oh wait, I forgot that for most of this thread I said this is exactly what would happen. So I guess I'm also not surprised

Latest financial projections out of Moscow are dire. Currently it is estimated that Russia will be out of reserve funds within a year and still have a massive budget deficit that it can't fund. Oil/gas prices are projected to be depressed for 2-3 more years minimum, and certainly Gazprom is producing less gas now than it ever has in its 20+ year history. Since Gazprom contributes 10% to Russia's GDP, this is not a good sign for future fiscal health. Neither is the Russian official numbers that 3,000,000 more Russians are living below the poverty line today than last year and that shoplifting has skyrocketed to about 3 Billion Rubles this past year.

And that's just what I gleaned from the headlines today. It's far worse than that as there are more things I didn't put in this just from today, not to mention the past few weeks and months. The full financial impact of Russia's war in Ukraine is only now starting to become painfully obvious. Russia has some tough choices to make very soon, and Armata is absolutely on the chopping block.

 

Actually last I heard the PAK FA is being limited to a dozen aircraft. I remember posting sources much earlier in this thread or a comparable one. I wonder how India feels about this. Last I heard they were immensely dissatisfied with the program.

Report I saw today is that Russia has shelved PAK DA until at least 2023 and instead is going to update existing Tu-160 to Tu-160M2. This fleet is intended to serve Russia's needs until that time. The sources appear to be straight from the air ministry and state that Putin made the decision in May, so I take it this is official.

Steve

[Red Rage]

 

Gee, I'm surprised. Oh wait, I forgot that for most of this thread I said this is exactly what would happen. So I guess I'm also not surprised

Latest financial projections out of Moscow are dire. Currently it is estimated that Russia will be out of reserve funds within a year and still have a massive budget deficit that it can't fund. Oil/gas prices are projected to be depressed for 2-3 more years minimum, and certainly Gazprom is producing less gas now than it ever has in its 20+ year history. Since Gazprom contributes 10% to Russia's GDP, this is not a good sign for future fiscal health. Neither is the Russian official numbers that 3,000,000 more Russians are living below the poverty line today than last year and that shoplifting has skyrocketed to about 3 Billion Rubles this past year.

And that's just what I gleaned from the headlines today. It's far worse than that as there are more things I didn't put in this just from today, not to mention the past few weeks and months. The full financial impact of Russia's war in Ukraine is only now starting to become painfully obvious. Russia has some tough choices to make very soon, and Armata is absolutely on the chopping block.

 

Report I saw today is that Russia has shelved PAK DA until at least 2023 and instead is going to update existing Tu-160 to Tu-160M2. This fleet is intended to serve Russia's needs until that time. The sources appear to be straight from the air ministry and state that Putin made the decision in May, so I take it this is official.

Steve

 

 

The "projections" have been "dire" since 1991. Yet everytime I go after 2005 there is something new that manages to impress me. Everyone with half a brain has a foreign car, a place to live and a decent job. 1998, when we left, was indeed dire - 20-30 gangland murders in Moscow per 24 hours, financial default, looming terrorist threat and a sense of total hopelessness and collapse. This is just a minor speedbump. Reading Western headlines regarding modern Russia will give brain aneurysms to anyone actually familiar with the country. 

 

PAK-DA was a pipedream from the beginning. Production resumption of Tu-160 is in the plans, so its not just upgrades but new airframes as well. 160 is still awesome and relevant, and will stay so for the next few decades and then some. Next dream to be squashed will hopefully the 200-ton lift supersonic transport in favor of resuming An-124 production. PAK-FA is limited to a dozen on the first batch (on top of 6 prototypes in various configurations already flying), before it's even officially operational. It's not a finite dozen "until better times".

 

Armed forces will be the last thing on budget cut crosshairs in the current political climate. 

Edited July 24, 2015 by Red Rage

[Battlefront.com]

The "projections" have been "dire" since 1991. Yet everytime I go after 2005 there is something new that manages to impress me. Everyone with half a brain has a foreign car, a place to live and a decent job. 1998, when we left, was indeed dire - 20-30 gangland murders in Moscow per 24 hours, financial default, looming terrorist threat and a sense of total hopelessness and collapse. This is just a minor speedbump. Reading Western headlines regarding modern Russia will give brain aneurysms to anyone actually familiar with the country.

True, but as the saying goes past track record is not necessarily an indication of future performance. Another saying is "looks can be deceiving". Lots of American families looked like they were part of the 1% club, then in 2008/2009 they were homeless and bankrupt. For some, like me, it wasn't surprising at all. I was predicting this since the early 2000s. People thought I was stupid for pulling out of the stock market, but not so much after they lost 50% of their life savings in a couple of weeks. Russia has been in an economic bubble due to high energy prices and nothing more than that. Now that high energy prices are gone, so too is Russia's economic bread winner.

Looking at the numbers, including the ones coming from official Kremlin sources, this is not a "minor speedbump". Gazprom is in free fall and the reasons for it do not indicate a recovery anytime in the next 2-3 years (if ever). Since Gazprom provided almost all of Russia's spending money over basic obligations, it is unlikely Russia will recover it's fiscal capacity to pre 2014 levels any time soon. Which is a problem since Russia only has enough cash to cover the next year's worth of shortfalls on an already reduced national budget. After Russia runs out of cash, then what? Where are they going to get the money from?

 

PAK-DA was a pipedream from the beginning. Production resumption of Tu-160 is in the plans, so its not just upgrades but new airframes as well. 160 is still awesome and relevant, and will stay so for the next few decades and then some. Next dream to be squashed will hopefully the 200-ton lift supersonic transport in favor of resuming An-124 production. PAK-FA is limited to a dozen on the first batch (on top of 6 prototypes in various configurations already flying), before it's even officially operational. It's not a finite dozen "until better times".

I don't disagree, but the first thing to go in a crisis are the pipe dreams. This is an indication of the severity of the problems Russia is facing.

 

Armed forces will be the last thing on budget cut crosshairs in the current political climate.

And yet there are already signs that the budget is under pressure. There has been more "realigning of priorities" within the Russian military as of late.

I do not want to see Russian prosperity in decline. I do not want Russia to become a failed state. But that's the direction it is headed now thanks to horrific leadership decisions, bad management of the economy, and poor timing with other world events. At a minimum, the shiny expensive toys that the military was slated to get won't happen without massive sacrifices to the public sector. The numbers simply do not allow for any other reasonable conclusion.

I understand you may disagree with all this. That's fine. Let's revisit Russia's economic situation in a year and see what is happening. If you're right, and all this doom talk about Russia's economy is just Western wishful thinking, then there should be signs of recovery or at least stabilization. I'd be more than happy to have you be right because I do not wish ill on the Russian people.

Steve

[sburke]

Yep, all the concerns are just the west making a mountain over a molehill

Putin: "What me worry?"

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/24/news/russia-putin-layoffs/index.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crimea-now-putins-problem-child-040104466.html;_ylt=AwrXgSJhf7JV5hwAc0aamolQ;_ylu=X3oDMTByb2lvbXVuBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

Edited July 24, 2015 by sburke

[VladimirTarasov]

Guys on western media sources, They make it sound like we are eating surplus from ex-ussr storages  Sanctions haven't effect me at all, Our economy wont decline but incline in the coming years. I mean I want to ask all "westerners" why is it, You guys never give us a chance, Or listen to us, Yet you just believe in your own sources. This is not fair to me, I watch things happening in America in English, Not from Russian sources. As a CMBS player I ask all my forum comrades here to atleast just a few times look at Russian sources on things happening in Russia. Going into more detail, I even know to watch FOX news over CNN   And that Democrats < Republican. Ok this was off topic, But I felt I needed to say this.

 

And about Armata production arguments on here, Not all of the 2000 claimed Armata chassis will be tanks, It will be the mixture of the Tank, IFV, And its other variants. If you ask me 300 T-14 sounds about right till 2020, Dont expect a higher number. They will be upgrading T-72B3s to B4M, Buying new T-90AMs and upgrading older T-90 variants. And don't forget the tank version of Kurganets, And its other variants. 

[John Kettler]

VladimirTarasov,

 

There is a great SF short story by Tom Godwin called "The Cold Equations." Briefly, it talks about what happens when the pilot of chemical powered rocketship, upon which mass, fuel, oxygen, food, water and other consumables are computed to a gnat's rear and life or death hang, confronts the tremendous impact of a stowaway. What you are taking umbrage to is, as I see it, another set of Cold Equations. Economics. Simplistically, if fiscal requirements exceed money on hand, money in reserve and revenue from taxes and the like combined, particularly in a situation in which a huge combined financial hit (depressed oil prices and sanctions, not to mention reduced revenues from various cascading effects) has been taken, sooner or later the piper must be paid. I and doubtless others here are glad you're not suffering personally, since you didn't destabilize and invade Ukraine, but eventually you will begin to feel the bite. Putin can't keep the populace insulated from the sanctions forever, just as Hitler's policy of guns and butter (to keep the home front stable in the early years of an expected short war), inevitably smashed into the unyielding realities of Total War, another set of Cold Equations, if you will. Bluntly put, the Russian economy, were it an airplane, is about to fall out of control/has departed control and is about to go into a flat spin, which can be deadly.

 

On the positive side, as certainly viewed by Putin, there is the unexpected plot twist of the Saudis getting involved, to Russia's (and their) benefit. Certainly, none of the western pundits saw that one coming, and this is over and above the deals with the Chinese, which reportedly aren't good at all for Russia, but constitute a lifeboat of sorts in that they buy some time, I'd imagine. A leaking lifeboat is preferable to no lifeboat! 

 

Erwin Rommel famously characterized German High Command as living in Cloud Cuckoo Land, i.e., detached from reality and seeing everything through the proverbial rose colored glasses. What I believe people here are saying is that Putin's living in the Economics version of same. He has finite resources, and still shrinking resources, yet must deal with the demands imposed by various parts of his society, especially the military, which could make him go away very quickly. Not only is there only so much money in aggregate, but a hefty chunk is simply being pocketed up and down the line, starting with the exceedingly rich Putin, so is lost to the national economy.

 

Now, in this ever more austere fiscal environment, Putin is supposedly going to continue to rebuild existing Tu-160/BLACKJACK supersonic strategic bombers and also build at least 50 more. A Russian source within MoD, I believe, has said restarting and building the announced heavy bombers is impossible, yet we're blithely assured doing so won't harm the PAK/DA program. The whole T-14 MBT production plan has suffered a 4-year slip: IOC was to have been 2016 and will now be 2020, and as someone who was privy to a lot of real deal information on US defense procurement during over eleven years in military aerospace, production slips result in huge cost increases, frequently greatly reduced weapon system buys, downgrading of capabilities and can, and have, caused outright program cancellations. Norman Augustine took a terrifying to many very hard look at US aircraft procurement, plotting cost over time and showed the trauma inducing inevitable results of the defense procurement path the US was on. Here's the gut check plot to fiscal oblivion. Putin's situation is much, much worse. He doesn't have the economies of scale, the relatively simple and cheap planes, tanks and missiles of yore, the finances, the tech base, the manufacturing base or much of anything else the US has. Consequently the upslope on cost is much steeper than the plot I presented for US aircraft procurement. And he's bucking the same forces in practically every high tech area he ventures into in an effort to not merely keep up with but eclipse modern weaponry of the US, NATO, SEATO and, sooner or later, China. Like it or not, that's the reality of the matter. 
 

Law Number XVI

In the year 2054, the entire defense budget will purchase just one aircraft. This aircraft will have to be shared by the Air Force and Navy 3-1/2 days each per week except for leap year, when it will be made available to the Marines for the extra day.

 

(Couldn't get back to standard Forum font--whatever that is), so am using this for the moment. While some may view Augustine's Laws as tongue in cheek, they were in fact intended to describe how defense procurement really operates, and here's what he has to say upon revisiting his work 28 years later. 

 

"It is therefore with considerable regret that one must conclude that most of my laws have in fact withstood the test of time."  

 

The tank the Russian Army really wanted (Objekt 195, I believe) was, despite all sorts of wonderful military-technical capabilities, deemed too expensive by MoD, which is why the T-14 exists in the first place. It is an effort to get at least some of its technology in the field. The Deputy Defense Minister can spin it how he likes, but the reality is that the Russian Army is getting upgraded T-72s for years to come, the domestic T-90 production having ended for the Ground Forces because the T-14 was going to be there instead. Oops! And as if all that weren't enough, there are major upgrades of the strategic missile forces underway, planned deployment of advanced ABM sensors, expansions of the Russian Navy (Putin wants a blue water navy again) and more going on. This year, per Russian sources, the Russian Navy is receiving 50 vessels, but not all of them are new. That alone should tell you something. As should the fact that Russia's only qua carrier (the Admiral Kuznetsov, about half the displacement of a huge US one) was in such bad shape, it had its own tug and when in the Med, was shadowed by the US Third Fleet "in case she sank." The Moscow Times in an article headline called the not a real carrier a "Troubled Russian Aircraft Carrier, the key word being "troubled."  Sailors are a superstitious lot and call such vessels a Jonah, an unlucky vessel which they'll go to great length to avoid a posting to and from which they will make every effort to leave. Even the new subs reflect a resource and technology constrained situation, added to which are production problems. Putin's trying to be Cold War powerful, but doesn't have the manufacturing base (former Warsaw Pact nations, for example, for producing smaller ships) or even the great brain trust and high tech center called Ukraine, which was at the heart of Russia's S&T, RDT&E, and defense manufacturing. When Russia fell apart, Ukraine wound up with a third of the total Russian defense manufacturing base. Putin's in such a jam for warships (which Ukraine used to build many of) he contracted the French to build him two frigates, but then acted so badly on the international stage they refused to deliver. Major spares for his navy are made in Ukraine, and the invasion has, unsurprisingly, brought export of spares to a screeching halt. He has had to pay huge amounts to restore the ability to do things like build whole categories of ballistic missiles because those facilities were in Ukraine, along with the brains and highly specialized people. 

 

In the global scheme of things, unlike the US, Russia is not "too big to fail." It has clearly done so before, and Putin has put Russia on a path to destruction he's shown little interest in wavering from. His foreign adventurism has brought  global level disapproval and the painful consequences thereof, at a time when Russia's economy was already taking a terrible blow. You can't do everything with nothing, assuredly not indefinitely at that.

 

I understand your feeling you Russians aren't getting a fair shake in terms of press coverage. Nor do I claim to be able to read Russian sources, other than the obvious English stuff on RT and such, so I believe your point about reading about the US, for example, in the US media, has a certain merit. But as I've shown with a few examples, it's possible to present very strong evidence, using Russian sources only, some with high level contacts within the Russian government or formerly in it, Putin "can't get there from here" as it is, and that's without all his grandiose new plans. The last Russian finance minister obviously got sacked because he dared tell Putin what the Cold Equations unmistakably showed. The (mighty) Russian Empire, as Putin terms it, of yore couldn't cope with the US, and now it's not an empire any more, unless you count Syria. Not only is Russia non-competitive vs the US, but it's also got to deal with a slew of other players now significantly hostile and with enviable economies, S&T and advanced military capabilities. He can't win, and there's a real danger of destroying the country (again) by trying.

 

Finally, if there's anyone here on the Forums who can be said in the West to really get it regarding Russia, it's Steve, a trained historian who is a de facto OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) vacuum cleaner and analyst. He reads both broadly and deeply regarding Russia, Russian foreign policy and its impacts, the Russian economy, the Russian military and much more. Were he not making games, and were he so inclined, I have no doubt at all he could find himself a great job in any number of think tanks. He's that good, and I say this as someone who was immersed for over a decade in all things Bear military. Just so you know, Steve has no idea I'm writing this; he didn't put me up to it. But I believe that someone who can repeatedly successfully predict, years before the events, Putin's operational-strategic and strategic moves, really needs to be listened to--with rapt attention. Ignore him at your peril.

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler 

Edited July 25, 2015 by John Kettler

[VladimirTarasov]

Since I am not good at forum stuff I will reply to you in whole.

 

Kettler, The Russian economy is not stabilized in terms of currency rate, It has alot of other ways it keeps its economy. But do to facts that I am kind of busy and I really am not in the mood to get into very detail I will leave the economy part out of my reply. I will get into greater detail later.

The TU-160M2 will be using new technologies designed for the PAK DA bomber, It will be cheaper then the PAK DA but still very capable. The PAK DA bomber will be extended to 2023 to enter service. The plus side of this is that PAK DA will receive more research and development, Downside is you lose out on your major advantage of having such a advanced bomber, Thus risk your enemy on developing one before you.

 

And what do you mean the defense minister cant put a spin on it however he likes? The T-72B4 with Relikt armor upgrade is a very good upgrade, If you want to get into argument about it we can. The T-90 production ended they chose upgrading T-72Bs to brand new condition and adding new technologies over it, Because it was more cheap. But now they are going to upgrade T-90s to T-90AM standards, And buy new T-90AMs too. Which will be more cost effective and still capable rather then buying hundreds of T-14 by 2017. And keep in mind Germany and France will be building a completely new tank of 4th generation by 2030.

 

About the Kuznetsov, I wish there was a face palm emoji. You forget that the Kuznetsov doesn't move across oceans alone, It has other vessels supporting it , And tug boats are sent just in case, If you judge a military ship because it has a support tug boat nearby then I don't know if I can discuss with you about certain topics... You keep judging Russia and its capabilities yet you still rely on sources, From "Western" sites. My father's friend whom is also my friend, Is a Colonel in the Russian navy, The Kuznetsov is enough for Russia's military doctrine for now. We don't need to go and invade countries halfway across the world for now.

 

BTW I am well educated about the Russian armed forces and our histroy, More so then alot of foreign people to my country. I dont think its right to put Steve in your reply and speak of him so highly, No offence to him I am sure he is a quite educated person, But to me that's like "Steve knows about your country and your armed forces then you."

Edited July 25, 2015 by VladimirTarasov

[sburke]

Hey Vladimir,

 

more to the point.  I don't really need the western media to tell me what Russia's economic situation is.  Simple math tells me if I have a budget of X amount based on an income of Y and Y gets cut in half...well my budget better get cut down too or I am in trouble.  Russia itself is the information source for the increase in poverty, the details of rising crime levels, the impact of isolation on the ability to fulfill a weapons procurement program, the infighting in Crimea over the profits from corruption etc.  Believe me I apply plenty of skepticism to the West's media.  It is for the most part these days a product of the MTV mindset- how can I entertain my audience if the expected attention span of 3 minutes.  Still there are glimmers of things primarily on the economic front as those are the forces that actually WANT to invest in Russia.  They don't really care about the politics if they can make a profit.  That they see a financially risky situation means they will not invest and Russia is in dire need of investment.  It is not some magical economy where the rules of globalization somehow don't matter because of Russia's mythical "uniqueness".  Economics 101 applies just as much in Russia as anywhere else.

 

Trying to analyze a situation from your own personal position is also not helpful.  I am a decently compensated IT engineer in an area of the country that rarely sees much decline in housing prices.  Silicon Valley is not representative of America at all.  If I were to start trying to say what the overall experience is for Americans economically based on life here, most people reading this forum in the US would ask "What the hell planet does he live on".  A bubble can exist not just at a global level, but also at a national and local level.  Awareness that you live in a bubble is important before you try and view items outside of it.

[VladimirTarasov]

Hey Vladimir,

 

more to the point.  I don't really need the western media to tell me what Russia's economic situation is.  Simple math tells me if I have a budget of X amount based on an income of Y and Y gets cut in half...well my budget better get cut down too or I am in trouble.  Russia itself is the information source for the increase in poverty, the details of rising crime levels, the impact of isolation on the ability to fulfill a weapons procurement program, the infighting in Crimea over the profits from corruption etc.  Believe me I apply plenty of skepticism to the West's media.  It is for the most part these days a product of the MTV mindset- how can I entertain my audience if the expected attention span of 3 minutes.  Still there are glimmers of things primarily on the economic front as those are the forces that actually WANT to invest in Russia.  They don't really care about the politics if they can make a profit.  That they see a financially risky situation means they will not invest and Russia is in dire need of investment.  It is not some magical economy where the rules of globalization somehow don't matter because of Russia's mythical "uniqueness".  Economics 101 applies just as much in Russia as anywhere else.

 

Trying to analyze a situation from your own personal position is also not helpful.  I am a decently compensated IT engineer in an area of the country that rarely sees much decline in housing prices.  Silicon Valley is not representative of America at all.  If I were to start trying to say what the overall experience is for Americans economically based on life here, most people reading this forum in the US would ask "What the hell planet does he live on".  A bubble can exist not just at a global level, but also at a national and local level.  Awareness that you live in a bubble is important before you try and view items outside of it.

I am aware that I am not my country   I just gave my point out. Crime levels are not increasing, I remember how it was in the 90s alot of criminals to now, Putin and his government have lowered it by a huge amount, Corruption is still high in the local government, But not how it was in the 90s. Putin is fixing stuff like these, There are a lot of things you westerners are missing out on just on the sole fact because of your media, And the fact you dont live here. I think there is a Crimean dude here ask him how Crimea is. Even the French delegation said the Crimean people mostly want Russia. 

[sburke]

How can Putin be "fixing" something when he is a major contributor to the same thing.  Ever read the story of the massive beef purchase being done out of St Petersburg that the St Petersburg council couldn't figure out what the heck was going on... then it turned out to be Putin and cronies?  Trusting Putin to fix corruption is like trusting the KKK to lobby for affirmative action.  The only corruption he fixes is the folks who aren't on his approved list.  This is a primary issue in the west more than the sanctions.  Western businesses are afraid to invest in a country where the rule of law is not in effect and the rules of business are decided on a whim by a faction within the gov't.

 

Is the situation better than the 90s?  Probably because back then there was absolutely no rules.  Now there are rules, but they are decided essentially by a gang and not by the courts (beyond the courts rubber stamping what is decided by the gang).

Edited July 26, 2015 by sburke

[VladimirTarasov]

How can Putin be "fixing" something when he is a major contributor to the same thing.  Ever read the story of the massive beef purchase being done out of St Petersburg that the St Petersburg council couldn't figure out what the heck was going on... then it turned out to be Putin and cronies?  Trusting Putin to fix corruption is like trusting the KKK to lobby for affirmative action.  The only corruption he fixes is the folks who aren't on his approved list.  This is a primary issue in the west more than the sanctions.  Western businesses are afraid to invest in a country where the rule of law is not in effect and the rules of business are decided on a whim by a faction within the gov't.

 

Is the situation better than the 90s?  Probably because back then there was absolutely no rules.  Now there are rules, but they are decided essentially by a gang and not by the courts (beyond the courts rubber stamping what is decided by the gang).

You seem to know more about Russia then me... I must have been living in a different parallel universe. Mr.Putin and his gang is wrecking havoc in my country you were right!!!!! (sarcasm to the absolute 100%)

[Thewood1]

Actually, I laughed at that.  My best friend is from the UK and was ranting about things in the US and telling I have no clue what is going on and I said almost the exact same thing.

[VladimirTarasov]

Actually, I laughed at that.  My best friend is from the UK and was ranting about things in the US and telling I have no clue what is going on and I said almost the exact same thing.

It is as simple as that man, And nice one 

[sburke]

Well the source is Russian so laugh that one up.  Oh wait a Russian said it?  Oh nice one. 

 

http://www.amazon.com/The-Man-Without-Face-Unlikely/dp/1594486514

 

I am sure you'll dismiss her for some reason.  I can likely guess some of those reasons.

Edited July 26, 2015 by sburke

[VladimirTarasov]

Well the source is Russian so laugh that one up.  Oh wait a Russian said it?  Oh nice one. 

 

http://www.amazon.com/The-Man-Without-Face-Unlikely/dp/1594486514

 

I am sure you'll dismiss her for some reason.  I can likely guess some of those reasons.

A book against Vladimir Putin, For sale online directed towards the western media. If it is so important why does she sell the book is she too poor how sad   Or is it made for media standards the west puts out on their populace, So she can make some $$$$ she is smart   You can get information about Russia from me, And I wont charge you but as a person tell you about stuff for free.

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

It's entirely possible to live in a country and not have an especially good understanding of what's actually going on in that country.  This is especially true in Russia given the state control of the media.  As long as your end of the Russia is doing fine, you're entirely reliant on an agent who's only job is to tell you how great Russia is to really understand the rest of it.  This is rather different than the UK perceptions of the US simply because of our wide availability and consumption of news sources.  

 

Further along those lines, "on the ground" observation of the economic situation is often fairly irrelevant.  If I have 100 dollars, and I need 50 of those to keep my country running (strictly entitlement, salaries, and things I am 100% required to do or the people riot), but I can spend the rest on discretionary spending (hover tanks, robot ninjas etc), but then I suddenly am now only tanking in 65 dollars, the actual image on the ground for the common person isn't going to change much simply because the stuff that most affects them hasn't changed.  But instead of having 50 dollars for hovertanks and ninja robots, I now only have 15.  

 

So to that end it's why there's a lot of questions about the Russian ability to afford the Armata.  Indisputably there has been a marked downtick in the strength of the Russian economy (it's shrinking by 2% I believe), and a lot of the discretionary spending money has went away.  And historically the most deadly enemy of all Russian modernization projects has been a lack of funding (which frankly goes all the way back to the Soviet days*).

 

There's a lot of Russian defense modernization going on right now.  The "needs" funding isn't getting any smaller, and there's a lot of decaying infrastructure too.  And there's a ongoing under the table war with the Ukraine.  This reduced ability to pay for things means something is going to go under the proverbial bus.  We already saw the pie in the sky new bomber go away to be replaced by a modernized TU-160.  On the other hand the Russian military is already pursuing a variety of modernization projects for cold war era tanks and APCs despite at least on paper the Armata coming along to replace them**

 

It's not so much that the Armata is impossible, but there's a lot of reasons to hold doubt that the Armata will appear on time, in the numbers promised (or perhaps in the roles described).  

 

*Although in the USSR it was much less pronounced, it still very much came down to a fairly limited economy supporting a military that it could not sustain.  So on this grossly inflated military budget, it still often had to choose if it was going to be new nukes/missiles, or a new tank, or new planes etc etc.

 

**Which again opens interesting questions, the Russian military already supports a very diverse field of equipment operating in similar roles.  While the selling point of the Armata as a series of vehicles was commonality of parts, if the Armata is not going to replace most/all vehicles of certain types, it's simply added another tank/apc/etc into the parts chain which is hardly achieving the end goal.

[sburke]

A book against Vladimir Putin, For sale online directed towards the western media. If it is so important why does she sell the book is she too poor how sad   Or is it made for media standards the west puts out on their populace, So she can make some $$$$ she is smart   You can get information about Russia from me, And I wont charge you but as a person tell you about stuff for free.

umm because she is a journalist and that is how journalists survive?  Man is that really the best argument you could make, heck I can listen to RT for free too.  This a Russian source, someone who was in the opposition for years has met with Putin on more than one occasion and the best you can dismiss her with is, she sells a book... wow.  Almost any well publicized anti Putin sentiment is going to be published in the west.  He isn't exactly promoting discussion or did you miss the assassination of Nemstov.  Yeah his killers will ever be brought before a court...sure. 

 

Have you actually read her book?

[BTR]

It's entirely possible to live in a country and not have an especially good understanding of what's actually going on in that country.  This is especially true in Russia given the state control of the media.  As long as your end of the Russia is doing fine, you're entirely reliant on an agent who's only job is to tell you how great Russia is to really understand the rest of it.  This is rather different than the UK perceptions of the US simply because of our wide availability and consumption of news sources. 

It is entirely possible sure, but not very relevant in the case of people that have access to internet. Everyone has exactly the same availability of news sources, including opposing ones. That is why I do not understand why people keep on clinging to the frankly outdated denial formula "your media is bias" on the internet. 

Edited July 26, 2015 by BTR

[kaburke61]

It is entirely possible sure, but not very relevant in the case of people that have access to internet. Everyone has exactly the same availability of news sources, including opposing ones. That is why I do not understand why people keep on clinging to the frankly outdated denial formula "your media is bias" on the internet. 

 

That goes both ways...right? So many claim western media is biased, but certainly not any Russian sources.

Edited July 26, 2015 by kaburke61

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

 

 

That goes both ways...right? So many claim western media is biased, but certainly not any Russian sources.

 

See example:

 

 

 

A book against Vladimir Putin, For sale online directed towards the western media. If it is so important why does she sell the book is she too poor how sad    Or is it made for media standards the west puts out on their populace, So she can make some $$$$ she is smart    You can get information about Russia from me, And I wont charge you but as a person tell you about stuff for free.

 

There's doubtlessly more available "free" media in the west than in Russia.  It's not the abject denial that Russians have access to alternate news sources, but in practice most folks use the handiest news sources.  And the level of honest denial from the average Russian on the street that followed the Russian actions in the Ukraine leads me to believe that while the "free" news is available, it is some combination of:

 

1. Simply not used, Russia Today is just so handy, why would I go through the trouble of finding a western based Russian speaking news agency/read something that isn't in Russian?

2. Treated with the same disdain as Russia Today.  It's all just propaganda anyways, and I'm not starving, so the economy must be okay.  

3. The same sort of rose colored glasses that blinded a lot of Americans going into Iraq.  It's not so much a selection of which news source is most "true" it's a selection of which source is best telling me what I want to hear.  Russian state media tells me everything is okay, I want everything to be okay, and here's an article about how Germany is overrun by canniabalist homosexuals.  Serves them right.

From that as the case is without reasonable dispute Russia is:

1. Not doing so hot economically.

2. Is executing a lot of very expensive projects.

3. It is canceling some of those projects and undergoing budgetary contractions of other sorts.

 

From that a very distinct possibility is that something that's both very expensive, very risky, and sort of in an odd spot as far as purpose* will not be pursued seriously, and in some time we'll be talking about T-90AMs and other various legacy fleet upgrades with the Armata either Black Eageling or turning into a variety of less comprehensive packages (only some of the variants are produced and serve as a top tier replacement, procurement is slow to the degree that it's some years before even a modest fielding is reached, Armata is canceled but serves as the launchpad for the T-21 and BMP-5 etc). 

 

 

*It's not enough tank to reasonably turn the tide against NATO armor.  It's way more tank than is needed to deal with Russia's non-NATO neighbors.