Rating the Russian and Ukranian militaries

[LUCASWILLEN05]

What thoughts do we have on rating the Russian and Ukranian armies. The Ukraian military smetimes appears a little lacklustre, perhaps because of the pre war issues. Training might be reasonable enough so Regular might make sense but we might consider heir leadership ratings to be on the low side and morale may well be a problem. By 2017 these issues may be exacerbatd by further battlefield setbacks.

 

The Russian army seems to be quite professional although not up to NATO standards. It performed well in Georgia and some elemenys may be getting combat eperience in the current fighting, whatever the Kremlin says. Thee 2008 reforms likely will have some considerable effect on professionalism.

 

 

[Kraft]

Eh, morale is high. They are fighting on their own turf against an invader and have NATO right next to them.

[Nerdwing]

Ukraine is indeed lackluster I'd say.  Its to be expected.

 

Russia is getting better over time.  

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Eh, morale is high. They are fighting on their own turf against an invader and have NATO right next to them.

 

Setbacks against the Russian seperatists, the effects of poor funding which likely to effect training and morale, among other things such as equipment maintainance. On the other hnd, s you say the Ukranian army is defending its' own turf which gives them a patriotic boost. However this will be eroded by early setbacks. If the war can be turned around Ukranian morale will increase. However, with high csualties qualitative improvements in comba experience amd leadership might not change very much during the course of the war.

 

Russia might lose some of it's earlier edge if only through loss of experienced leadership and morale could take a battering with high casualties and falling morale, certainly if things go badly.

[Krater]

If we're to take current fighting into account, I would say that Ukrainian units would clearly improve.  I would rate them right now to be comparable to Russian units towards the tail end of the First Chechen War (95-96) - they have "seen the elephant", but there is still a LOT more work to do organizationally to incorporate the battle experience into unit training/structure, etc.  If we presume that 2015-2017 consist of fairly low-intensity fighting (like Nagorny Karabagh, for example), they may have time and space to implement the reforms. 

 

As far as Russian units, it's hard to tell.  Units of Russian armed forces (as opposed Russian armed forces personnel) are getting involved only episodically, so I would not expect the experience to have much value for them.

[Sashko]

You guys are kidding, right? 

 

More proper qualitative comparison would be Ukraine and Congo (won't go as far as Nigeria...yet). And no, it won't get better unless the Americans subsidize the whole party with say 30-40 billion a year, because Ukraine is a Ju-87 in a dive as far as economy goes. Arms cost money, good arms cost a boatload of money. They are at the point when there is no money for basic social services and mob rule seems to be the new normal in Kiev. 

 

The fact that the whole country is living and breathing this trainwreck of an ATO sending Soviet era coffins to the front, while Russia is leisurely rotating specialist troops and testing the newest EW, drone and targeting kit should be pretty telling as far as capabilities go - i.e., different planets. 

[LUCASWILLEN05]

If we're to take current fighting into account, I would say that Ukrainian units would clearly improve.  I would rate them right now to be comparable to Russian units towards the tail end of the First Chechen War (95-96) - they have "seen the elephant", but there is still a LOT more work to do organizationally to incorporate the battle experience into unit training/structure, etc.  If we presume that 2015-2017 consist of fairly low-intensity fighting (like Nagorny Karabagh, for example), they may have time and space to implement the reforms. 

 

As far as Russian units, it's hard to tell.  Units of Russian armed forces (as opposed Russian armed forces personnel) are getting involved only episodically, so I would not expect the experience to have much value for them.

 

Could depend on a range of factors. Does Ukraine lose a lot of casualties including experienced small unit leaders. In which case quality could actually fall as new conscripts come to replace the fallen and they don't getthe benefit of experienced veterans who are no longer there being dead or too seriously wounded to continue in the army. That said units that experience more heavy fighting might well improve. There usually comes a point where a decline sets i as with Hitler's Wehrmact, Napoleo's Grande Armee and even the US army in Vietnam.