LUCASWILLEN05 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Personally I think you're wandering of quite a little bit. This is not 1930/40. Russia's governmental institutions are perhaps not very high on the (utopian) democratic scale, I'd like to think they are quite far from the Nazi regime. If this thing escalates internationally clandestine efforts mimicking the Russian effort would be most likely, accompanied by public financial, logistical and non offensive military aid. TBH I suspect this is already happening, in smaller or larger scale. I see three semi likely end states for this conflict: 1. Diplomatic solution in which East-Ukraine gains some sort of autonomy allowing both Ukraine and Russia to walk away without losing face. 2. Separatists hold gains against UKR efforts and with time East Ukraine joins Russia in South-Ossetian fashion. 3. Ukraine defeats the Separatists (including 'vacationers') in such fashion that Russia is bound to back down With all options leaving Crimea in Russian hands. CMBS shows the unfavorable consequences for all parties in the conflict. Would be great if Porosjenko, Putin and Obama could duke it out in a public AAR battle Actually my vew is that, while Putin sometimes might be viewed as acting like Hitler (Crimea = Rhineland/Austria/Czeecholslovakia) I think the Bismarck compasrison is thr more accurate one/ Bismarck was ot above provoking wars and manipulating situations (1864 Schleswig Holstein, 1866 Austria -Prussia, 1870 Franco Prussian) Putin's record so far includes 2nd Chechen War. Georgia 2008 and now Ukraine starting with his action in Crimea. Putin seems to be a far more shrewd and canny opertor than Hitler ever was. In that respect I would see him as far more comparable to Bismarck For now I am inclined to agree with you that this is most likely going to remain a proxy war but there is always the chance something gets out of hand in a very tense international situation if one or both sides were to miscalculate and over reacts. In those circumstances the esults could indeed be disasterous for all concerned and even those not directly involved if it turned nuclear. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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