US military aid to Ukraine - no politics please

[ikalugin]

John, that is T64E.

[Krater]

According to RT.com, US is considering to transfer MRAPs from Afghanistan to Ukraine.  This could be true, or could be attempt by Russian to preemptively prevent such transfer from taking place by raising Afghan sentiment against it.  It's certainly true that Ukraine has an urgent need for armored transport for it's troops.  The 6 newly formed motorized infantry brigades (rebadged territorial defense battaionls) are very short on transport in general -hence the need to requisition 2000 trucks from the private sector to give them wheels.  In general, a decent guess can be made by looking at the equipment made available by US  via Excess Defence Articles database.

[John Kettler]

LUCASWILLEN05,

 

Thanks for that! I concur with the article's view on how this development will be seen further east.

 

ikalugin,

 

"E" for extraordinary? Looked pretty impressive to me.

 

Krater,

 

Welcome aboard!

 

Thoughtful first post. That RT is inveighing against such a transfer is a strong indicator that the news organization's string pullers don't want such a reinforcement of highly survivable AFVs to occur. As for the EDA, I have a proposal to offer: demilitarize US police now confronting the citizenry in MRAPs and similar , thanks to nearly 0.5 billion $ in free DOD aid to American police departments in 2013 alone, their choice of wheeled or tracked AFVs! Shipment to Ukraine from the US has got to be cheaper than shipping them from Afghanistan, won't torque off the Afghanistan president and will relieve and perhaps gruntle a lot of concerned citizens here. 

 

Regards,

 

John Kettler

Edited February 6, 2015 by John Kettler

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

MRAPs are totally reasonable.  Once you get away from the US-specific counter IED and BFT stuff which doubtlessly wouldn't be part of the deal, it's something the military is trying to dump, and there's little other demand for.  Not the most reliable things ever from my experience, but nothing on them was so complex as to demand PHDs to turn wrenches on.  Also fits "defensive" weapons well as the MRAP is great at keeping people in it from exploding and not much else. 

[ikalugin]

John, E for Export. This was one of the earlier attempts to sell the T64 series on export markets without resorting to dumping prices. Was bundled with the BMP64, as a common heavy IFV/tank combo.

The T64E is an interesting system, it had improved protection and self defense fire power - I think they even were trying to fit twin 23mm. http://topwar.ru/8333-modernizirovannyy-tank-t-64e-novaya-zhizn-starogo-tanka.html

[Sgt Joch]

Javelin ATGMs would seem to be the most effective short term. They require little training so they can be deployed quickly and would be effective against both Russian AFVs and infantry targets.

Edited February 6, 2015 by Sgt Joch

[Wicky]

On a related note here's a BBC mainstream news article > Ukraine crisis: Russia tests new weapons

 

A rebel Strela-10 air defence system on the streets of Donetsk

 

Here a rebel Grad rocket system is deployed at a cemetery

[mvp7]

Here's an interesting BBC article that outlines some of the current problems of the Ukrainian army among other things: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31146595

Mainly the lack of drones and weak electronic warfare capability.

 

Has anyone ran into any articles about the Russian tanks in east Ukraine? I'm interested in details about the used tank models and such, news rarely go into much details about that. I have seen at least some pictures of old T-64's from last summer but the BBC article claims that that the pro-Moscow forces often have better tanks than Ukrainian army these days, what would those be?

 

 

On a related note here's a BBC mainstream news article > Ukraine crisis: Russia tests new weapons

...

 

Looks like you beat me to it

Edited February 6, 2015 by mvp7

[Stagler]

 

 

Here a rebel Grad rocket system is deployed at a cemetery

 

Looks like grads in transit to me matey.

[whitehot78]

We might be surprised by what gets sent. Instead of coming from US stocks we might see (much cheaper) Israeli Spike AT missile supplied. Ukraine arms industry already has a relationship with Israel.

 

Didn't those  Spike ATGM systems find their way to georgian army during the august war of 2008? I read somewhere about a russian tank disabled by one of them but anyway. Not that they had much weigh in that conflict

[ikalugin]

I heard that some 2 of 3 Counter Mortar Radars sent to Ukraine were already disabled (for various reasons).

[mvp7]

Looks like grads in transit to me matey.

Deployed is actually the word used in the BBC article

 

By the way, does anyone know if Ukrainian army transmits audio with radios instead of short encrypted text messages or can even that be triangulated reliably?

[ikalugin]

Deployed is actually the word used in the BBC article

By the way, does anyone know if Ukrainian army transmits audio with radios instead of short encrypted text messages or can even that be triangulated reliably?

It appears that they mostly use non encrypted voice over radio systems. Those and cell phones (though phone usage has decreased by a lot since summer).

Which is why they get Grad a lot.

Edited February 6, 2015 by ikalugin

[LUCASWILLEN05]

In the longer term Kiev would probably like a new MBT on a par with the latest Russian models. There are a number of possiblties including the M1A2, Challenger II or Leopard II  Likewise new IFVs are more than likely on the procurement list. The Ukranian army is certainly used to dealing with armoured vehcles but  there are going to be significant technical differences between Western and Russian equipment, hence the need for intensive training.

 

Then there are the political issues but, if Ukraine moves towards NATO membership procurement and training aimed at succesful joint operations as part of the NAT) alliance would be expected and neccessary. It seems likely this would be a prossess taking place over the medium and longer term.

[Sgt Joch]

 

 

Has anyone ran into any articles about the Russian tanks in east Ukraine? I'm interested in details about the used tank models and such, news rarely go into much details about that. I have seen at least some pictures of old T-64's from last summer but the BBC article claims that that the pro-Moscow forces often have better tanks than Ukrainian army these days, what would those be?

 

 

 

 

 

they have many late model T72s. These are from the latest fighting around Debaltseve.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVX0OCkfeYI#t=15

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSRRyM4sSQ0

[ikalugin]

Lucas, look at the Georgia's Armed Forces modernisation. No western AFVs there. Generally thinking that they would be procured by Ukraine (or gifted by the West) is dumb, especially considering positive externalities of aiding domestic Ukrainian production.

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Lucas, look at the Georgia's Armed Forces modernisation. No western AFVs there. Generally thinking that they would be procured by Ukraine (or gifted by the West) is dumb, especially considering positive externalities of aiding domestic Ukrainian production.

 

Don't forget Georgia got thrashed by Russia in 2008 and, given this, would think twice about upsetting the big bad bear next door. Ukraine is not (yet) in this situation. hey are going to have to be re-equipped at some stage, particularly if they were to move towards NATO membership. This does not mean that all of their equipment will be foreign made but they may decide that domestic production cannot produce a modern MBT at an acceptable cost that is capable of taking on T-90s  In which case foreign purchases must be considered as an alternative. 

[Sgt Joch]

In the longer term Kiev would probably like a new MBT on a par with the latest Russian models. There are a number of possiblties including the M1A2, Challenger II or Leopard II  Likewise new IFVs are more than likely on the procurement list. The Ukranian army is certainly used to dealing with armoured vehcles but  there are going to be significant technical differences between Western and Russian equipment, hence the need for intensive training.

 

Then there are the political issues but, if Ukraine moves towards NATO membership procurement and training aimed at succesful joint operations as part of the NAT) alliance would be expected and neccessary. It seems likely this would be a prossess taking place over the medium and longer term.

 

 

Longer term, the M1 may not be a good choice since no one else in Europe uses them, so you get into issues like maintenance, parts delivery, etc.,

 

German built Leopards would IMHO be a better choice. Many NATO members use them, including Canada.

[mvp7]

US is not going to start handing out M1A2s from it's own formations and I doubt Ukraine would even want weapon systems for which it has absolutely no existing trained personnel or supplies. If Ukraine is going to receive any tank related aid then modernization of the existing tanks or some surplus soviet tanks bought from other ex-pact countries would seem more likely.

[ikalugin]

Georgia did not get Western tanks in a similar situation - force modernisation/armed forces reform in a "Russia scared" situation.

[TheVulture]

US is not going to start handing out M1A2s from it's own formations and I doubt Ukraine would even want weapon systems for which it has absolutely no existing trained personnel or supplies. If Ukraine is going to receive any tank related aid then modernization of the existing tanks or some surplus soviet tanks bought from other ex-pact countries would seem more likely.

 

The US has exported downgraded versions of the M1A1 to Australia, Egpyt and Iraq, and downgraded M1A2 tanks to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (to the tune of around 2000 vehicles all told). I don't see why they would never consider exporting some to Ukraine.

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Another point about the Oplot is that they are made in Kharkov at the Mayshev Factory. Which of course is dangerously close to the Russian border. If at some stage Russia were to take Kharkov then Ukraine would also lose the production line if not at least some of the expertise

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malyshev_Factory

 

I would not be surpised if, at sme point, Russia or the Russian seperatists mount an attack on this strategic city. And then Ukraine would have a real problem that might require them to look abroad for a new MBT.

Edited February 6, 2015 by LUCASWILLEN05

[ikalugin]

Modern wars are "come as you are". Thus loss of the plant would not change things much, if it happened during the all out war that is.

[panzersaurkrautwerfer]

 

 

The US has exported downgraded versions of the M1A1 to Australia, Egpyt and Iraq, and downgraded M1A2 tanks to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia (to the tune of around 2000 vehicles all told). I don't see why they would neverconsider exporting some to Ukraine.

 

Here's what came with all of those packages:

 

1. Egypt actually license produces the export model M1s, which rather makes them something easier to maintain

2. Saudi Arabia's fleet is almost 100% supported by western contractors due to lack of qualified local personnel.  It also falls into the whole Arab-standard "if I own this fancy piece of western equipment, then I am as good as the western military that uses it!" mentality than lends itself to purchasing equipment it cannot use, or support in the long run.  They also have a lot of money to throw at the tanks

3. Kuwait is mini-Saudi Arabia in this regard.

4. Iraqis believe in their heart of hearts they'd have killed every American and been able to fight all the way to liberate Jerusalem if only they had better equipment in 1991.  They bought the M1 because they believe it somehow made Iraqi tankers better vs was just something else for them not to maintain.  It also came with a full-on US Army established and for a long time, manned armor crewman school.  They also had money (abliet US aid money) to throw at the tanks.  

5. Australia is conveniently located at that Venn diagram point in which Australian desire for a new tank line up with the US strategic focus shift to Asia.   

 

Absolutely none of those were countries in the middle of a conflict with little to no practical US ground presence, no training mission, no industrial means to produce spaces, or not at all much money to buy its way out of problems.  

 

If there was going to be a western tank dropped into the Ukraine it'd be some manner of Leo 2 model, as there's a fair number of those on the market, and a decent number of sources for spares (and despite German disinterest in the conflict, the number of now mothballed Leo 2s outside the country, or in the hands of folks who don't seriously keep up tank fleets is fairly high).  On the other hand most of the US tanks in storage have the advanced armor arrays that 100% will not be exported until it's rendered obsolete by phased plasma cannons and proton shields or whatever.

 

And that's still going really far out on a limb.  The most likely situation is stimulating internal production as that's much less training mission/non-Ukrainian standard equipment reliant, some sort of former Soviet design from outside the country (again Polish refurbed T-72s seem like a good choice).  The best solution for a tank producing country isn't to drop a tank they don't produce on them, it's to help them make more of their own tanks (and the Oplot is nothing to sneeze at).

 

So yeah.  Can we talk about a more likely sort of aid vs the crazytown stuff?

 

ATGMs seem like a given.  Especially ATGMs of unverifiable origin (Israel is great for stuff like that).  Also a large push to get the Ukrainian Air Force back to strength wouldn't be a bad choice, what's killing it now is lack of functioning airframes.  This is exactly the sort of thing Uncle Sugar could handle with buying up every loose MIG spare part, and writing paychecks for either Ukrainian mechanics, or other former-Warsaw Pact maintainers to go in and overhaul the stuff grounded for serviceability issues.    

[ikalugin]

To be honest if I were a US authority sending anything to Ukraine I would spend about the same sum of money making sure it does not get sold to separatists for Horilka or used as rather inefficient ovens.

Edited February 6, 2015 by ikalugin