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ukraine military vs russia


emccabe
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You are not serious about this?

Its the facts.

We could have very long discussions on the region's history, ethnic makeup, economic situation, geopolitical factors and decisions which led up to the current conflict... but then we would really be off topic.

Anyway, I have my popcorn Gifs ready and waiting. :)

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Of course he is. Its the facts. The Ukraine conflict has been steered by the Kremlin from the first day. You think those 'green men' came from the moon?

These are facts:

1. Ukraine wanted to sign asociation agreement with EU. Russia grumbled and did nothing. EU didnt want to sign. In Fall 2013 Merkel said Ukraine is not ready.

2. Ukraine needed money, asked EU. Negative.

3. Ukraine asked Russia. Got credit. Moscow demanded to rethink alignment.

4. Ukraine did.

5. Protesters supported by Western powers moved to the street, occupied public buildings, armed themselves and fought police with deaths on both sides.

6. Yanukowitch and western officials signed an agreement for early elections.

7. Next day violent overthrow of Yanukowitch. Nato warns Ukraine to use military force. Unconstitutional government taking power in breach of the agreement is accepted by western powers immediatly.

8. Breakaway/ Annextion of Krim

9. Protesters supported by Russia moved to the street in the East, occupied public buildings, armed themselves. Regional Police didnt intervene.

10. An unconstitutional and not democratically legitamted government in Kiev sends loyal parts of its military to quell the rebellion.

This was all planned by the Kremlin? While Putin was busy hosting the Olympics? You are serious about this?

If with "green men" you are refering to Russian soldiers I think they were already there, several thousands of them. Its called "military base".

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Was doing some research on Spetsnaz and came across this book review for a new scholarly work covering the Ukraine Crisis. Judging from the review, some of the book contributors are out to lunch, if that.

http://warontherocks.com/2014/11/russia-and-ukraine-not-the-military-balance-you-think/#_

Colby Howard and Ruslan Pukhov, eds. Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine (East View Press, 2014).

I found it via a link from Dr. Gorenburg's blog, which covers Russian military affairs.

http://russiamil.wordpress.com

Who he is

Dmitry Gorenburg is a senior research scientist in the Strategic Studies division of CNA, a not-for-profit research and analysis organization. Dr. Gorenburg is also the editor of the journals Problems of Post-Communism and Russian Politics and Law and an associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. He has previously taught in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as Executive Director of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). He holds a Ph.D in political science from Harvard University and a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University.

Regards,

John Kettler

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And who forced Ukrainians to leave their homes? The Ukrainian government? No, the fighting did. And who is responsible for the fighting? There would be no fighting now if it were not for Russia's direct aid. So Russia is responsible for the people being forced from their homes, not Ukraine.

Steve

I don't like that statement at all.

Of course it's the fighting that forced those people out of their homes. And, yes, without the Russian involvement there probably would be no fighting. But the conclusion "Russia is responsible for the people being forced from their homes" does not seem... sophisticated enough. To me it feels like stating something along the lines of "The flight pioneers are responsible for the death of everyone that died in WW2 during the bombings of civilian cities." True, but at the same time it bends the reality to a point where it's about to break.

I realize that you wanted to show your disagreement with the statement that the Ukraine is responsible for a genocide, but blaming Russia as the sole reason for those peoples misery...

I think a statement like that oversimplifies the situation. It just doesn't feel right.

Unless I misunderstood something.

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More probable than nazi fascist junta genocide.

In the end Janukowytsch was a pathetic and corrupt puppet of Putin (who also annexed parts of the country, has been supporting the rebels with heavy weapons and is somewhat connected to those rich amazon shoppers who apparently all bought the same set of Uniforms by accident and now roll through the frontline together!). Obviously Putin is not the reason for all bad things in the world but oh gosh does he help :)

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A drop by from lurking this thread to share my appreciation for the well dug up info from everyone here, and the so far civil way of discussion. Due to more pressing personal affairs I haven't really been able to follow this conflict in detail, not had the time to dig up and filter all the available info. So it is great to have some good quality notes, pre-filtered and (more) local info available for 'free'. Obviously like all info not 100% first hand will still pass my own filters :)

@Jargotn, on a political level I somewhat agree with you. I'm using Steve's kindly offered option for a time allowance to a political post in this thread ;)

Although Russia has (predictably) shown some of it's shined up old Soviet era 'dirty' tricks, it is imo only because it isn't on par with the more civil type of tricks NATO / "The West" excels at with the same goal: serving one's own interests by bringing the Ukrainian regime into 'orbit' or influence sphere. Being from the West and having experience working (and personal) with a lot of governmental institutions/organisations, I am happy that I can freely talk about how I agree with Churchills classic paradigm “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.”. Russia has one of the more worst forms of government, which is partly also why it doesn't excel in the type of tricks 'The West' specializes in: lobbying, NGOing, economic benefits, NATO protection, 'agents provocateur', covert military advisers, etc.

So, while I think that for the people of Ukraine steering West is favorable to steering East, I think the 'Western Powers' show the usual hypocrisy regarding the issue of Ukraine. There has been, in my opinion, a lot efforts to 'influence' Ukraine to the more western hemisphere and for the most part this has nothing to do with freedom/quality of life for the average Ukrainian but with simple cold coinage and power. Every well informed foreign relations / intelligence personnel could have predicted that Russia would wag it's tail after and how Janoekovytsj left the field.

Taking everything into account I'm of the opinion that Russia isn't the sole responsible party for the current bloodshed, although it has a large part in it and the Putin clique operates it in quite fitting 'bully' role ;)

Anyway, just couple of cents worth. And from here I'll (try to) post no more politics in this thread, although I'll be looking out for a (civil) thread on the General forum.

Back to military stuff; at the time I was surprised of Ukraine's successful counter offensive. Given the largely corrupt governments which had ruled the country for a long time I hadn't thought much of it's army. However it seems that like in Syria (and currently Iraq) real battle experience makes all the difference, coupled with the fact that Ukraine does have quite some shiny toys (non-monkey model) and actual relevant companies specialized in producing them.

The mid/end August massive counter attack by 'separatist' forces was obviously not something manageable by locally organised insurgents, using captured or black market equipment. Look at ISIL, they probably have all the money needed to buy what they want and plenty of manpower (and evidently training by some professionals), but could NEVER organize a full scale conventional mechanized offensive like we have seen in in East Ukraine and towards Marioepol. It is clear for anyone that wants to see it. Later, after the successful Russian/Separatist counter attack I had actually expected it to succeed in taking the full Donbass region. Like others stated, the Ukraine military seem to have improved quite a lot.

I have seen some pictures of a destroyed Bulat tank but none BTR-4E or Oplot, I guess they are not currently employed in the ATO?

P.S. I surely have noticed and appreciated the tactical minded read from the Ukrainian Lieutenant Colonel!

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As for the slandering of Ukrainian fighting qualities as they exist today, I suggest looking at Debalstevo and the Donetsk airport. The separatists and Russian forces have attacked them repeatedly since they signed the "cease fire". They haven't made *any* progress, despite Ukraine being surrounded. Motorola, one of the most capable separatist forces, was reportedly down to about 40% personnel. Motorola himself was wounded (he confirmed this himself to prove he wasn't killed, which was the initial rumor).

Besides this, from mid July to mid August the Ukrainian forces took back massive territory for very little losses. The separatists, and the few Russian forces in theater already, were pushed steadily back and were being pocketed big time. That is why Russia has to commit it's armed forces into the battle, starting with artillery from their side of the border and then on the Ukrainian side, followed by many ground forces. This halted the Ukrainian advance, but did little to push them back except in the south where the Russian army came in through behind the lines.

So here's the thing. If the Ukrainian forces are incompetent, then what does that say about the separatist and Russian forces that were being repeatedly defeated on the battlefield in July and August?

As for Ukrainian vehicles driving around with flags... Russian and various separatist flags are EXTREMELY common on their vehicles. It's silly to point out this practice for one side and not the other. It doesn't show good intentions of impartiality.

Steve

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As for Ukrainian vehicles driving around with flags... Russian and various separatist flags are EXTREMELY common on their vehicles. It's silly to point out this practice for one side and not the other. It doesn't show good intentions of impartiality.Steve

I have certainly seen many vehicles from both sides carrying around large flags. I guess the danger of not carrying one is significant, otherwise the Darwin effect would have stopped this practice very soon! ;)

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I have seen some pictures of a destroyed Bulat tank but none BTR-4E or Oplot, I guess they are not currently employed in the ATO?

BTR-4s are definitely being used: http://info-news.eu/ukrainian-btr-4-apc-withstood-several-rpg-hits/. Of course, the statement "Since the RPG hits caused only minor damages, this BTR-4 will rejoin the counter-terrorist forces tomorrow" is totally laughable.

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These are facts:

1. Ukraine wanted to sign asociation agreement with EU. Russia grumbled and did nothing. EU didnt want to sign. In Fall 2013 Merkel said Ukraine is not ready.

2. Ukraine needed money, asked EU. Negative.

3. Ukraine asked Russia. Got credit. Moscow demanded to rethink alignment.

4. Ukraine did.

5. Protesters supported by Western powers moved to the street, occupied public buildings, armed themselves and fought police with deaths on both sides.

6. Yanukowitch and western officials signed an agreement for early elections.

7. Next day violent overthrow of Yanukowitch. Nato warns Ukraine to use military force. Unconstitutional government taking power in breach of the agreement is accepted by western powers immediately.

8. Breakaway/ Annextion of Krim

9. Protesters supported by Russia moved to the street in the East, occupied public buildings, armed themselves. Regional Police didnt intervene.

10. An unconstitutional and not democratically legitamted government in Kiev sends loyal parts of its military to quell the rebellion.

This was all planned by the Kremlin? While Putin was busy hosting the Olympics? You are serious about this?

If with "green men" you are refering to Russian soldiers I think they were already there, several thousands of them. Its called "military base".

Wrong -there was never a point Russia was doing nothing. In fact Russia had been active for years.

Dimitry Firtash is one of Putin's front men in Ukraine. This guy was a fireman 10 years ago and then suddenly he has a deal reselling gas from Gazprom buying it from Gazprom well under market, costing Gazprom billions. Later Gazprombank (Putin's buddies) gave him a line of credit for more billions. This guy was a major contributor to Yanukovich.

This has been going on for four years and you can bet it isn't the Kremlin's only operation, though likely one of if not the largest in terms of cash flow. Tell me what possible reason could Russia have to grant this ex-fireman billions other than to use him to funnel that cash into Ukraine to finance other operations?

http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-putins-allies-channeled-billions-ukraine-oligarch-131143198.html

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sburke, we need to let that poor horse get some rest. You and I (as well as many others) know the only nation that supports the narrative you responded to is Russian state controlled media. It might make me sad to see people with a command of English and access to the Internet still choose to believe Russian media accounts of what's going on, but we're not going to change that here.

Steve

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As for the slandering of Ukrainian fighting qualities as they exist today, I suggest looking at Debalstevo and the Donetsk airport. The separatists and Russian forces have attacked them repeatedly since they signed the "cease fire". They haven't made *any* progress, despite Ukraine being surrounded. Motorola, one of the most capable separatist forces, was reportedly down to about 40% personnel. Motorola himself was wounded (he confirmed this himself to prove he wasn't killed, which was the initial rumor).

Besides this, from mid July to mid August the Ukrainian forces took back massive territory for very little losses. The separatists, and the few Russian forces in theater already, were pushed steadily back and were being pocketed big time. That is why Russia has to commit it's armed forces into the battle, starting with artillery from their side of the border and then on the Ukrainian side, followed by many ground forces. This halted the Ukrainian advance, but did little to push them back except in the south where the Russian army came in through behind the lines.

Donetsk airport - strongpoint with TRPs at every bush, with huge amount of artillery support. And DPR have few tanks to breakthrough. Althouh, half of an airport it taken by milita. And airport is not surrounded.

They took territory... And were surrounded several times, losing a lot of vehicles and men. No, not only by Russians. With their number superioty they could crash milita, if they only had capable command and motivated infantry. (common practice - massive shelling, then attack, infantry is suppressed, tanks attack alone, stay there just because rebels have no AT weapons, then they call new artillery strike - early WW2)

Ukrainians had a lot of motor rifle, airmobile and tanks units against light infantry small in numbers, with few AT weapons. And they managed to lose >60% of light armor. To PTRDs, DShKs and NSV.

did little to push them back except in the south where the Russian army came in through behind the lines.

Politics. Mariupol was empty, but wasn't taken.

As for Ukrainian vehicles driving around with flags... Russian and various separatist flags are EXTREMELY common on their vehicles. It's silly to point out this practice for one side and not the other. It doesn't show good intentions of impartiality.

What side pretends to be an army? Rebels are usually less trained, but not in this war.

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But this is off topic. So please don't try to debate it here. Or convince me that the world is flat.

Steve

Since I initially responded to one of your posts I am surprised I am OT. As long as the topic is the situation in Eastern Ukraine and not bashing Russia. I admit I am OT on this one.

Wrong -there was never a point Russia was doing nothing. In fact Russia had been active for years.

You are right of course. I didnt want to try to downplay Russian involvement in Ukraine (that would amount to stupid propaganda). What I wanted to express is that Russia did nothing on a scale we saw after the overthrow of the Ukrainian president and we still see today.

I am Austrian, I consume only german media (who dont "support" that "narrative" and RT only when I stumble over some link. I dont think RT is very informative even if only to counterbalance western media. It is easy to get all relevant facts from western media if you take the effort to differ between reported facts and conclusions or opinions. You might want to try this angle (or not): http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2014/february/09/victoria-nulands-ukraine-gate-deceptions/

I have no connection to Russia whatever. Historically my grandfathers fought Russia (also in Ukraine), one of them "deserted" in the last days of the war to be with his family when the Red Army was expected to reach his home town.

One of them (the volunteer, not the "deserter" told us kids: "Everything is better than war."

Clausewitz wrote about two factors that can lead to an uncontrollable escalation of war:

1. the importance the involved governments gives to the cause: check, we didnt support the change from one corrupt government to another, we are fighting for democracy, human rights, Europe and to keep the Red Army out of Barcelona)

2. the emotion the population does attach to this cause: this is why I get jumpy everytime someone who has some influence on an audience is trying to spin some good guy/ bad guy storie. I jump a lot these days.

To call your posting about the responsibility for displaced People in Eastern Ukraine cynical is too polite. I am shocked about the way you as an administrator are leading this discussion. When another opinion is voiced you denounce him as a Propagandist, Insult him and tell him to shut up for beeing OT. I recommend you read the forum rules.

It is not you or your kids that are dying or displaced in Eastern Ukraine or will suffer in an escalation. So stick with your computer games.

And dont worry I wont try to shatter your worldview on any of your forums again with my propaganda. And yes, I know you dont care.

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Ukrainians had a lot of motor rifle, airmobile and tanks units against light infantry small in numbers, with few AT weapons. And they managed to lose >60% of light armor. To PTRDs, DShKs and NSV.

DMS I tried to get PTRDs in the game but the Gods of war are saying no?

http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=117582&page=3

I know it was a feeble attempt, the bit about the code already existing, but I had to try. There is obviously a fair few still kicking around and scoring goals. Simple, reliable, good militia weapon.

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Wrong -there was never a point Russia was doing nothing. In fact Russia had been active for years.

Dimitry Firtash is one of Putin's front men in Ukraine. This guy was a fireman 10 years ago and then suddenly he has a deal reselling gas from Gazprom buying it from Gazprom well under market, costing Gazprom billions. Later Gazprombank (Putin's buddies) gave him a line of credit for more billions. This guy was a major contributor to Yanukovich.

This has been going on for four years and you can bet it isn't the Kremlin's only operation, though likely one of if not the largest in terms of cash flow. Tell me what possible reason could Russia have to grant this ex-fireman billions other than to use him to funnel that cash into Ukraine to finance other operations?

http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-putins-allies-channeled-billions-ukraine-oligarch-131143198.html

You want to look into "dodgy" rags-to-riches stories, you might inquire how Tymoshenko, former darling of the West, went from a penniless engineer to the richest woman in Ukraine in 5 years, also reselling discounted Russian Gas to Ukrainians.

Or how Poroshenko, current darling of the West, built his business empire on shady privatisation deals in the 90s. Poroshenko not only gave money to Yanukovych, but was a minister in his government in 2012.

Firtash was a backer of Klitshko's UDAR party during the "Maiden" uprising, his actions were one of the key in getting Yanukovych out in february and he was an early key backer to Poroshenko's presidential bid. It does not sound like his "Russian handlers" were doing a very good job. :)

Every Ukrainian "Oligarch" has his (or her) share of shady deals...that does not make them all "Russian Agents". ;)

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sburke, we need to let that poor horse get some rest. You and I (as well as many others) know the only nation that supports the narrative you responded to is Russian state controlled media. It might make me sad to see people with a command of English and access to the Internet still choose to believe Russian media accounts of what's going on, but we're not going to change that here.

Steve

To call your posting about the responsibility for displaced People in Eastern Ukraine cynical is too polite. I am shocked about the way you as an administrator are leading this discussion. When another opinion is voiced you denounce him as a Propagandist, Insult him and tell him to shut up for beeing OT. I recommend you read the forum rules.

Soooooo...this might be a good time to close this one up or move it to the General discussion forum. :)

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