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The CMSF doable situations no one saw coming


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The invading Sunni force in Iraq called ISIS is sweeping the part of the north and central Iraq using a fleet of ~ 250 technicals and around 300 armored Hummers. The map shows the invaders' extraordinary gains.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/20/isis-iraq-map_n_5510899.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular

The entire invasion force is ~1000 men, armed with the usual small arms and RPGs. The Iraqi government, on the verge of losing the country despite having outnumbered the ISIS force by ~30:1, asked Iran for help. Iran responded by sending in 2000 men of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard elite Quds Force (Iranian commandos), and there are indications more troops have arrived since.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/iran-enters-iraq-quagmire/1948466805

Quds force is now attacking, using some of the 140 M1A1s (and an unknown to me number of Strykers) the US left for the Iraqis to defend themselves as the spearhead. As if that wasn't wild enough, the highly unusual force has air cover. Apache helicopters. Thus, M1A! tanks and Strykers leading a bunch of guys dressed like this, with heavily armed attack helos available to deal with problems which hold up the advance.

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4338862,00.html

The only part of Iraq where ISIS has met real resistance and been stymied is northern Iraq in the Kurdish-controlled areas. The thoroughly professional Kurdish fighters, the peshmerga, are doing so well they theoretically could go help the Iraqi government, but that isn't their priority.

http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/kurds-act-bulwark-against-militant-advance-iraq/2058374780

Something which should also give ISIS pause is that Turkey, in a wholly unexpected historic turnaround, has said it would support Iraqi Kurds bid for self-rule. The term game changer is overused, but is fully appropriate here.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/17/turkey-kurdistan_n_5504309.html

As if that wasn't exciting enough, tough Shiite fighters who've helped Syria's Assad not only stay in power but make real progress vs the FSA (Free Syrian Army) are now returning to Iraq to stop ISIS, in turn causing Syrian setbacks vs the FSA. The FSA has reportedly moved into territory which Syria fought bitterly to recapture from the FSA and now can't be held.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/21/iraq-syria-conflict_n_5518427.html

Needless to say, the gaming possibilities are most intriguing.

Regards,

John Kettler

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The current events are amazing. One couldn't have written a more dramatic movie screenplay. No one would have believed it.

My question is how come the general public is only now being told about ISIS (or ISIL)? Clearly, these guys have been around for a while.

However, it's quite brilliant if orchestrated by us. Get the whole bloody lot of them wiping out each other.

And yes, I really hope some bright designers can scenarios or (Insha'Allah) a campaign on this.

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I would play the crap out of a campaign based on these events. Ive followed Syria relatively closely since the beginning and never would have expected any of this to be happening. I dont think the middle east is ever going to look quite the same again.

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Erwin,

Not entirely under the radar. The Washington Post put out a very good piece on ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams), now apparently called ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) and the man behind it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/isiss-gains-in-iraq-fulfill-founders-violent-vision/2014/06/14/921ff6d2-f3b5-11e3-914c-1fbd0614e2d4_story.html

ISIS/ISIL is almost brand new, having been formed in April of 2013. A most insightful piece from BBC News. Bonus: pic of ISIS fighters.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24179084

BBC vid on ISIS.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27797667

And while all we hear about is ISIS, ISIS isn't doing all the heavy lifting. This Muslim commander works with ISIS, which he describes as having only a thousand men, but says, unlike ISIS, his men fight under the rules of the Geneva Convention. He characterizes the ISIS troops as "barbarians" and says the mullahs of Mosul(?) have decreed there shall not be sharia law there. He flat out says ISIS on its own could never take, let alone control, Mosul and lists the other groups who made seizing it possible and maintain order.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27853362

Regards,

John Kettler

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No, the peshmerga know exactly how to defend their own turf without bothering with MBTs.

Nobody in Iraq, including Iranians, has the ability and resources to keep an armoured battalion operating more than a few miles from its base and workshops for more than a few days. A few tanks or APCs at a time, used as heavy gun platforms to support infantry, that's doable for as long as they run; then they're pillboxes.

Gamer fantasies aside, this is not a tank war and won't be decided by armour.

All these guys can do their dirty work without the inconvenience of heavy mech formations, whose designed purpose is to take apart conventional infantry fighting conventionally. Against an Uncon enemy whose doctrine is to go into guerrilla mode when faced with superior guns, they are a substandard choice -- swatting mosquitos with sledgehammers. Better to put those resources into infantry with plenty of Toyotas, ammo and mortars.

The reason the Assad forces still do it is because they're so short on motivated infantry and their allies bankroll the logistics. They send shells not men and delude themselves they are winning when the enemy fades away. If Maliki's forces follow suit, it'll be because a superpower is backing them, not because it's tactically sound.

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As to the threat of ISIS/AQFOTM* -- which media of all stripes love to play up because scary head-chopping fuzzy-wuzzies sell 'papers' --, they cannot hold territory outside Sunni areas. And within Anbar I predict they will eventually be crushed by less fanatical Sunnis. Iraqi clansmen are not Pushto tribesmen; they are well organized and their superior numbers will tell even against hardened fanatics who also cannot hide from the locals the way they might from an outsider. For interest I will cite this MEMRI piece, 2004 commentary by a jihadist who accurately predicted Zarqawi and his AQIZ would be rejected because of their fanaticism and brutality:

Some of the operations of Al-Zarqawi's group in Iraq are extremely brutal: incidents of beheadings and boasting of them before the cameras in videos later distributed over the Internet, and car bombs killing dozens of civilians… These movements base themselves on a religious-theological dimension, disregarding the present reality and the nature of things. I believe that those who perpetrate this consider only themselves and do not consider the effect on those they want to address. They focus on their desire to affirm that they are strong and capable of taking revenge…

This brings us back to the basic problem, namely, that there is a confusion of strategies … [that were developed by Islamist groups] in Egypt … for the struggle against the existing regime, which they considered illegitimate. This has been going on for at least thirty years in Arab countries and in effect has not succeeded in realizing its aims… This does not suit the reality in Iraq for a simple reason: that Iraq now needs to revert back to the stage of being liberated from colonialism, [a stage] which the Arab and African nations had entered after WWII… The logic of a war of liberation is totally different from the logic of a struggle against the existing regime in one's own country.

* AQ Flavour of The Month

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The entire invasion force is ~1000 men, armed with the usual small arms and RPGs. The Iraqi government, on the verge of losing the country despite having outnumbered the ISIS force by ~30:1,

Yes, but the region they are making their gains in is very upset with the current Iraqi government because of divisive politics. So while the force we are all fussing over is small they are making their gains with the help of locals who are upset that the deals providing some regional autonomy they thought they had negotiated were being ignored.

I'm not saying the ISIS group is not scary, just saying they are not super soldiers, they have local support.

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Dumb grunt prediction: Syria and Iraq will dissolve as nation states. Creating a new Sunni dominated state in the west and an Iran satellite, Shia state in the east. The Kurds will hold out for as long as they can, especially if they can maintain control of the northern oil fields.

The brits drew the lines, the UN has worked to maintain them, but due to everyone's attention being on other things, or simply lack of real interest, the old lines will blur.

The US cannot support Maliki, since he has strayed rather far from the mandate given him and his government. Without that support the sectarian violence will take hold.

At this point I only see the West getting involved if there is a substantial threat to the worlds oil supply or an obvious attempt by either faction to finance/shelter terrorist extremists. I don't know that ISIS really fills that bill so far, I think they are mostly just trying to form a country all their own at this point.

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John, that WP article was written in June 2014. The question is how come no reporting was done when obviously ISIS/ISIL was being formed? If they are as effective/well-trained as we are being told, that takes many years.

There has been reporting that there are several (no many) independent groups fighting the Syrian government over the last few years. I remember hearing many different names but none of them stuck out because they are all kind of muddled together under the title "a bunch of groups of foreign fighters". This is one of these groups and they have been particularly good and creating contacts and support on the Iraqi side of the border. Now that they are operating on both sides of the border the main stream media started telling us about them specifically.

Note I have no idea of the nationality make up of this or any other of these groups but I personally suspect that these groups we call foreign fighters probably have lots of people that would consider themselves locals. After all those borders are a bit blurry right now and for many in the area, they always have been (as @ScoutPL pointed out).

You are quite correct these guys *have* been around for a while and the media has not singled them out for coverage until recently. I don't know what to say, I could blame general reporter incompetence or ignorance but really it could be more public disinterest in what is happening in Syria. If people really cared about what is happening in Syria reporters could spend time filing more stories and then they might get time and space to cover some of these groups specifically or cover different parts of the conflict in more depth.

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Note I have no idea of the nationality make up of this or any other of these groups but I personally suspect that these groups we call foreign fighters probably have lots of people that would consider themselves locals.

As far as ISIS goes they have a huge amount of foreigners in their group last estimate i came across was 3,000. Members from practically every western European nation, probably every arab country, a ton from the Caucasus and central asia as well. For this reason the local Iraqis will look at them as invading oppressors not muslim brothers at some point in the future.

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...For this reason the local Iraqis will look at them as invading oppressors not muslim brothers at some point in the future.

Yep, the statement "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" is way to simplified. While they are often convenient pals for a time, eventually they can turn out your enemy too.

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There has been reporting that there are several (no many) independent groups fighting the Syrian government over the last few years. I remember hearing many different names but none of them stuck out because they are all kind of muddled together under the title "a bunch of groups of foreign fighters". This is one of these groups and they have been particularly good and creating contacts and support on the Iraqi side of the border. Now that they are operating on both sides of the border the main stream media started telling us about them specifically.

Note I have no idea of the nationality make up of this or any other of these groups but I personally suspect that these groups we call foreign fighters probably have lots of people that would consider themselves locals. After all those borders are a bit blurry right now and for many in the area, they always have been (as @ScoutPL pointed out).

You are quite correct these guys *have* been around for a while and the media has not singled them out for coverage until recently. I don't know what to say, I could blame general reporter incompetence or ignorance but really it could be more public disinterest in what is happening in Syria. If people really cared about what is happening in Syria reporters could spend time filing more stories and then they might get time and space to cover some of these groups specifically or cover different parts of the conflict in more depth.

Actually there has been a fair amount of reporting on them for quite a while now. Al Qaeda in the form of Al-Zawahiri publicly intervened in a disagreement between Al Qaeda forces in Syria and ISIL. At that time he tried to define ISIL area of responsibility and restrict them from involvement in Syria. The situation in Iraq I don't believe is so much an issue of ISIL popping up out of nowhere so much as an unsurprising collapse of authority of the central gov't in Iraq due to it's failure to be inclusive of the Sunni community. Wiki has a good synopsis of where ISIL comes from, the process of the Al Qaeda insurgency in Iraq becoming more homegrown and events leading up to the current crisis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_in_Iraq_and_the_Levant#Rise_and_decline_of_Al-Qaeda_in_Iraq_.28AQI.29

It remains to be seen if ISIL is capable of retaining power in the Sunni community once the confrontation with the central gov't becomes less of a common cause. Similar to the Sunni awakening we could very well see a power struggle between the larger Sunni community versus the Sharia law radical Sunni organizations.

I tend to agree with scout_pl that Syria and Iraq as nation states are not likely to survive. There just isn't anyone with a vested interest there in it. The Kurds have wanted an independent Kurdistan for what seems like forever. The main opposition they have faced is Syria, Iraq and Turkey. Only Turkey remains with a strong central gov't and probably needs to figure out how to reach an accommodation with the Kurdish population of face an even more difficult insurgency.

I don't see the same happening with the Sunni community. I don't see Iraqis Sunnis wanting to see any governmental integration with Syria. What they do need is access to oil and it looks like that is a major focus in the current offensive. The Shiite community in Iraq I think would also like to maintain their independence from Iran however that may be difficult for them to manage.

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"So long as the Arabs fight tribe against tribe, so long they will remain a little people, a silly people, greedy, barbarous and cruel." TE Lawrence knew what he was talking about; loose confederation or small kingdom is the only nation state that works for most Sunni Arabs.

While it's possible the collapse of Iraq and Syria might lead to a nominally independent "Sunnistan" confederation, it would be a weak, poor and unstable stew of internecine hatreds and nutjob ideologies, constantly subject to meddling by stronger neighbours. Afghanistan west.

There will be no new Saddam; he himself was an accident of history, a street thug hijacking a dying wave of Arab nationalism and keeping himself in power using oil and Soviet sponsorship.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The article here on Su-25 transfers/returns to Iraq from Iran is good, but the whopping set of graphics on the general situation is a sight to behold. Zones of control, border crossing, tribal divisions, factionalizing of neighborhoods, wholly unexpected long sequences of ISIS attacks covering many years--and more. There's a separate article for each graphic.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/iran-sends-3-attack-planes-to-iraqi-government.html?src=recg&module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Recommended&pgtype=article

Regards,

John Kettler

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