Black sea game

[iMolestCats]

Russian authorities have denied it as nonsense.

Denied what? The fact that they are invading Crimea? Because it's pretty obvious to the rest of the world.

[Childress]

Why shouldn't they? Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great. Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?

I'm sure the Baron agrees.

[womble]

Denied what? The fact that they are invading Crimea? Because it's pretty obvious to the rest of the world.

No, the assertion that Ukrainian forces have been handed a "surrender or be attacked" ultimatum. Central Russia denies it. Whether that's because it's a local commander getting too enthusiastic and making threats his bosses would rather he didn't actually carry out, or whether it's a "Bad Baron" defense for a provocation to actually roll over the border, we'll probably never know, if fighting breaks out. If it all stays calm (and the Ukrainian soldiers get to stay in their barracks), Central Russia was probably right, and the other option of "scaremongering (or just plain scared) Ukranians" comes into play.

Or it could be Chinese Whispers. There's a dance on, apparently. We'd better get our best bib and tucker out of the press.

[womble]

Why shouldn't they? Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great. Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?

Given it's nearly 30 years before Russia's lease on the military real estate in Crimea comes up for renegotiation, one could argue perhaps that they're being a little bit premature in asserting their opening position. Don't think Kiev, even with a pro-European outlook would be feeling their oats enough to seek to terminate the agreement early. Maybe Uncle Vlad knew different.

[Childress]

Premature? Maybe, maybe not. Russia is currently leasing the Sevastopol port, the home of her Black Sea Fleet fleet. The Crimea belongs to Ukraine, an impoverished*, kleptocratic, unstable and schizophrenic Frankenstein of a country with whom any kind of agreement must appear a slender reed to the Kremlin. Putin made a very simple and accurate calculation…no US President or European leader was going to go to war over Ukraine. Let's hope he's right.

*average personal income = $3800/yr. One fourth of that of Russia.(Wiki)

[iMolestCats]

No, the assertion that Ukrainian forces have been handed a "surrender or be attacked" ultimatum. Central Russia denies it. Whether that's because it's a local commander getting too enthusiastic and making threats his bosses would rather he didn't actually carry out, or whether it's a "Bad Baron" defense for a provocation to actually roll over the border, we'll probably never know, if fighting breaks out. If it all stays calm (and the Ukrainian soldiers get to stay in their barracks), Central Russia was probably right, and the other option of "scaremongering (or just plain scared) Ukranians" comes into play.

Or it could be Chinese Whispers. There's a dance on, apparently. We'd better get our best bib and tucker out of the press.

Ah ok. I think Putin has gone an to far to back out of this without seeing some serious repercussions. I see some possible engagements between the local Ukrainian garrisons and the Russian troops with a chance of full scale war between Ukraine and Russia.

This all reminds me of Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland, going in under the guise of helping German ethnics, but now it's Russia Invading the Crimea to help the Pro-Russians. You just see the similarities.

Man what a mess all of this is.

[76mm]

Why shouldn't they? Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great. Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?

um, they have plenty of other access points to the Black Sea within Russia itself, such as Novorossisk.

[Vark]

Two problems with hoping for cooler heads to prevail.

a) Putin is trying to save face from the ham fisted Russian gerrymandering in Ukrainian politics, which partly led to and certainly exacerbated the crisis. So its ego time, which rarely turns out well

Crimea has virtually all its domestic electricity supplied by Ukraine, so if it cedes then its highly vulnerable to any Ukrainian interference.

I do think calling Ukraine a Kleptocratic regime richly ironic, given some analysts call Russia a mafiocracy. A plague on both their houses perhaps.

[Jishmael]

This all reminds me of Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland, going in under the guise of helping German ethnics, but now it's Russia Invading the Crimea to help the Pro-Russians. You just see the similarities.

With the Difference that this Time the Facists and Neonazis are on the other Side

[Childress]

um, they have plenty of other access points to the Black Sea within Russia itself, such as Novorossisk.

Novorossiysk is not an ideal location because it does not have the natural deep sea harbor Sevastopol has, and the commercial possibilities are said to be limited. Also the latter possesses historical and cultural significance. Ideally the Russians retain both.

Crimea has virtually all its domestic electricity supplied by Ukraine, so if it cedes then its highly vulnerable to any Ukrainian interference.

I do think calling Ukraine a Kleptocratic regime richly ironic, given some analysts call Russia a mafiocracy. A plague on both their houses perhaps.

Ukraine depends entirely on Russia for natural gas. Turn off the pipeline their citizens freeze.

There are kleptocratic elements in both countries, you're right. As the comparative per capita income stats suggest, the Ukrainians are better at it. Ukraine has never had a government in the Western sense of the term after the collapse of the Soviet Union gave it independence, just the equivalent of the family offices for one predatory oligarch after another–including the “Gas Princess,” Yulia Tymoshenko.

[Vark]

If you turn of the gas for the Ukraine aren't European users affected, which if true might make them think again. Also the turning of the gas gambit did not work against the Ukraine in winter, so doubt it would do so in spring and a tit for tat denial of energy would cripple Crimea, unless Russian can fly in or ship electricity!

[Childress]

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Frankly, if I were seeking a second residence and had to choose between Russia and the Ukraine I'd take the former in a New York minute. Barring a Marxist revival in the latter, of course.

[Vark]

Tough choice, gangsters or shysters!

[Childress]

And Ukraine possesses the most opulent and fertile grain growing fields in the entire world. They're world's fifth-biggest exporter of wheat by volume and the third-largest shipper of corn as of last year. And destitute broke. Losers.

[Ashez]

Ukrainian euroactivists 'enhance' the work of prosecutor's office. Notice the passive behaviour of police officer:

That's how decisions have been made in Kiev during and after the coup.

[Wicky]

Will BFC include mattress fortifications?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26432391

[baron Jacquinot]

Why shouldn't they? Russia has been fanatical about access to a warm water port since Peter the Great. Do you really think they were going to risk losing access to their outlet to the Black Sea and from there the Mediterranean?

I'm sure the Baron agrees.

Yes of course, Russia fighting for Crimea hundreds years, impossible to lost that strategic point.

You western people must understand that Ukraine it is not a State it is just artificially farmed Soviet republic nothing more than part of old Russian Empire.

[Aragorn2002]

With the Difference that this Time the Facists and Neonazis are on the other Side

I beg your pardon?

[baron Jacquinot]

I want to say one thing, I suppose Obama and Putin come to an agreement to destroy Ukraine.

[ChrisND]

1. I've moved this thread to the Shock Force forum.

2. Politics talk is not allowed here. I can sense the thread going that direction so just... don't.

[ScoutPL]

Allow me to spin the globe for a perfect example of where this could (and probably should) end up. Guantanamo, Cuba. Major sea port existing within a small, poor country held onto (leased) by a major superpower with diametrically opposed political views.

If that is Putin's real concern (a warm water naval port) and this isn't some sort of power grab, than I see no reason why it shouldn't be doable.

[Saferight]

Good dispatch from Vice on the situation..

Part 1

Part 2

[LUCASWILLEN05]

Allow me to spin the globe for a perfect example of where this could (and probably should) end up. Guantanamo, Cuba. Major sea port existing within a small, poor country held onto (leased) by a major superpower with diametrically opposed political views.

If that is Putin's real concern (a warm water naval port) and this isn't some sort of power grab, than I see no reason why it shouldn't be doable.

Being mindful of Chris' comcern about politics (which is hard to avoid when considering a modern geopolitical crisis) I am inclined to agree. Crimea, de facto, is now under Russian control so Putin has his warm water port.

However, here remains the question of his future ambitions vis a vis the ethnic Russian population of Eastern Ukraine which is where I suspect everybody expects the next regional flashpoint to be.

Which means we have a ready made background scenario for CMBS. I would like to suggest to Battlefromt that the hypothetical conflct starts in February/March to give us the opportuniy of winter warfare beween the Russians and Ukranians (reinforced perhaps by some advanced NATO units. At the end of March, as I think we all know you get the Rasputitsa mud season. Mud, in this case means a soggy morass You might allow for actions during this period to allow for skirmishes though AFV movement will be difficult at best. The campaign proper can resume in May ending in say August, September or early October allowing for things like a NATO push on Moscow. You should probably include Belorussia as a Russian ally.

[baron Jacquinot]

Being mindful of Chris' comcern about politics (which is hard to avoid when considering a modern geopolitical crisis) I am inclined to agree. Crimea, de facto, is now under Russian control so Putin has his warm water port.

However, here remains the question of his future ambitions vis a vis the ethnic Russian population of Eastern Ukraine which is where I suspect everybody expects the next regional flashpoint to be.

Which means we have a ready made background scenario for CMBS. I would like to suggest to Battlefromt that the hypothetical conflct starts in February/March to give us the opportuniy of winter warfare beween the Russians and Ukranians (reinforced perhaps by some advanced NATO units. At the end of March, as I think we all know you get the Rasputitsa mud season. Mud, in this case means a soggy morass You might allow for actions during this period to allow for skirmishes though AFV movement will be difficult at best. The campaign proper can resume in May ending in say August, September or early October allowing for things like a NATO push on Moscow. You should probably include Belorussia as a Russian ally.

Don't forget scenario 2015 Russian army "Blitzkrieg on west", and winter 2015 without Russian gas.

[tdogg]

Don't forget scenario 2015 Russian army "Blitzkrieg on west", and winter 2015 without Russian gas.

The Russians might be able to turn off the gas but there will be no "blitz of the West" your as delusional as Putin. Your country can only put 50 t-90s into service and 2 dozen mig-29s, the bulk of your equipment is 30 year old tech, WTF is that gonna do against NATO / US ???