Question about diplomacy

[Strategiclayabout]

Hi ,

- Playing a ladder game as Allies against PGTomli he invested all of his axis chits on Spain and Turkey in summer 40.

- The problem is he got hits on both Turkey and Spain for four consecutive turns (lower was 6%, higher 29%) putting Spain at 95% and Turkey at 55%.

- Is that even possible with AoD diplomacy formulas :confused: ? Because it looks like insane luck. I could understand if all chits were on Spain OR Turkey but not both. (UK invested 7 chits so far for no hit)

- Add to that Hungary and Romania both joined Axis in the early range (October 40) while China is reduced to 74 MPPs/turn and it already looks like it's game over before Barbarossa if Turkey joins.

[Amona]

Incidently, in my ladder game as Allies against PGTomli he did the same diploing of Spain and Turkey and got diplo hits in about 10 (!) consecutive turns on both Spain and Turkey, Spain joining him in Fall 40 and Turkey in Summer 41.

Hungary and Romania joined early too, if I recall it right.

I also noticed that he was very successful very quickly with research.

And my post about air defense tech was originated from playing experience against him, were countless air strikes were not able to kill a single german ground unit with air defense 2 but low morale/readiness. I have learned now from experience in other ladder games, that on average only 10 to 15 allied air strikes are needed to kill a germn ground unit even if it has AD tech 3, not only 2.

I noticed too in the ladder game Axis ground/naval/air units with supply 0, 1 or 2 and readiness and morale levels of over 100/140, which held these levels over several turns without their supply getting better. I have NEVER observed this in a game of the SC series before, having played over 200 games against human opponents in the last 11 years, including the great Terif himself.

PGTOmli kills very much Allied units each turn while his own units only seldom loose any steps at all. This is quite astonishing, as neither his tactical game play nor his operations or strategies show more than average skill level.

I would also like to mention that in his ladder game against Baron, Baron felt inclined to surrender with AXIS (!) in December 1940 (!).

But, Stratlay, continue playing, you will prevail nonethelss, given your great skill.

In my game, Turkey joined him too, and he started Barbarossa already in April 41 (with nearly all tanks and Mech ready and fully upgraded - yes, he has always much MPP too early), he needed till August 42 nevertheless to take Moscow.

Oh, did I mention that naval traps against him never work, but his own traps always do? Or that he somehow seems to know the position of your every unit on the map?

[Strategiclayabout]

A little update :

- Spain went Axis so only Turkey remains. Axis reinvested chits from Spain on Turkey (not sure how many exactly) and Brits have now 8/8 chits fir 40% influence there (still no UK hit). Over the last three Axis turns there was only 1 hit for 10% putting Turkey at 65%.

- The only way I see to counter that move is:

1) To stack enough UK MPPs early for 8 chits (75x8 = 600 MPPs) and invest them all on Spain or Turkey when Axis gets its first hit (so you know where some of the chits are invested).

2) Invest from the start on Spain or Turkey to force an Axis answer (diplomatic or military).

3) Invest from the start on USSR or USA and pray for luck .

4) Doing nothing with diplomacy and just prepare enough forces to answer the threat on the field.

[Strategiclayabout]

Update 2:

- I played a bit with AoD diplomacy in hotseat and couldn't reproduce what happened above though I got some very random results the most significant being (no counter diplomacy used):

1) UK investing from start on USSR (September 39 to April 40)

got 3 hits (14%, 9%, 12% USSR reaching 50%) the first on first turn with 2 chits

2) Germany + Japan investing all 10 chits on Turkey from start (Sept 39 - Apr 40)

got 4 hits (10%, 9%, 11%, 36% total 66%) the first in January, the last being huge

3) Germany + Japan investing only 4 chits each on Spain (20%) and Turkey (20%) plus 1 chit each on DEI (10%)

got 1 hit on Spain at 11% and 1 hit on Turley at 14% in October 39

got 1 hit on Turkey at 11% in November 39

got 1 hit on Turkey at 14% in December 39

got 1 hit on DEI at 14% in January 40

got 1 hit on DEI at 14% in March 40

Total April 40: Spain 65% (+25%) Turkey 25% (+25%) DEI 53% (+28%)

So looks like what happened to me is possible but in the absolute extreme range of diplomatic randomness.

[Catacol Highlander]

I have sent a few emails out individually to players about this, and hope we can move past it now in terms of the ladder.

I have also played around a bit with diplomacy. In the past in Gold I used it quite a lot as axis and in some games managed to get Spain, Sweden or the DEI to join though never more than 1 of these and on about 50% of occasions would fail altogether usually because of UK counter investment. The long term benefits can be huge, but when facing such massive axis diplo spending it is worth being aware of the damage it does to short term axis attacks in China, Africa and eventually Russia.

One thing Layabout - if you invest 8 UK chits for 40% in Spain and the axis has invested the full chits for a total 65% chance in Spain also then the UK will NEVER get a diplo hit. The two numbers are used to create an aggregate average chance... so with the example about axis chances are reduced to 25% each turn. Until the US and USSR join the conflict the allied side cannot ever outspend the axis in diplomacy so 1940/41 is the big chance for the axis.

Once the game hits 1942 the roles are reversed and diplomacy can be very effective for the allies, especially if the US fully uses her power in this area. Actually few allied players seem to do it - myself included. It might well be an underused area of the game in 1942/43/44 in the European theatre.

[Strategiclayabout]

- Thanks for the details Catacol , I agree we can/should put the matter aside and assume again a 100% gaming stance !

- I also agree what happened may create new ways of thinking game strategies. Actually even if Axis has the chit advantage early Allies still have a good chance in 1939 when Italy is out and France in. Given the randomness of diplomacy, a gamble on USSR or USA can bring big results in the long term even with only one hit.