Calamine Waffles
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Everything posted by Calamine Waffles
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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Anybody familiar with Russian demographics over the past 20 years should not be surprised by this. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Ukrainian defense outlet Defense Express on the artillery situation: https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_much_the_russian_artillery_outnumbers_ukraines_in_density_and_amount_of_systems-3260.html -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
The casualty count is definitely believable, though honestly they admitted about 3,000 dead after the first month, so 10,000 after over 3 months doesn't seem extraordinarily high by the standards of this war. It coincides with Zelensky's figure of 100 dead/day (we are now on day 109). -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Alexey Khlopotov (a.k.a. Gur Khan, the Russian tank commentator) says that his blog has now been blocked in the Russian Federation https://gurkhan.blogspot.com/2022/06/gur-khan-attacks.html -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Yeah, so Calibre Obscura sort of pointed this out (except re: Ukrainian claims of being outgunned) -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Ukrainian street crossing procedure is interesting compared to the Russian one from Mariupol. At least they know what suppressive fire is, it seems. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
It's been exported to Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, and I think you're going to find a lot more Thais and Indonesians who speak English than who speak French. Also pretty sure more Ukrainians speak English than French. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Yeah, they have a very selective memory of World War 2 where they "liberated" the Russo-Ukrainian populations in Poland in 1939 and stopped the Nazis in Finland in 1940... -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Yeah, I'm skeptical of Germany's ability to deliver. I'm from Malaysia, so we do use the PT-91M. Seems to be a good tank for what it is. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
I don't think the US has the industrial capacity for the latest Abrams variants, though I guess they could send stuff out of deep storage. The Germans were apparently announcing that they would send Marders to Greece in exchange for Greece sending in their BMPs, but apparently that was made without consulting with the Greeks first. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
The US and Britain are backfilling for Poland at least. Not sure what Germany is doing. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
I highly doubt it. Maybe for a weaker round, but something like Stugna will punch through. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Ran out of the Relikt soft-case ERA, I guess. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
So, the thing about Russia (and by extension pro-Russia proxies) is that they like to project their own thoughts and weaknesses onto NATO and the West, that the West is no different from them. So they do genuinely believe that the West is as corrupt as Russia is and that Western governments blatantly lie all the time too. That is why they so fervently believe NATO is a Western Warsaw Pact. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Belarus does collaborate with Russia on weapons and has been doing so since the fall of the Soviet Union. They even used to collaborate with Ukraine (the guidance system of the Skif/Stugna was originally made by Peleng in Belarus) -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Of course. Belarus was a major manufacturer of certain automotive chassis during the Soviet era. The MAZ and MTZ plants in Minsk made things like the MAZ-543 (which you know better as the truck chassis that carries such famous things as the Elbrus (Scud-B) and the Smerch), the MAZ-537 heavy hauler normally used for tank transport, the MAZ-7910 (S-300), the MAZ-7917 (Topol), the MZKT-79221 (Topol-M), and the GM-355 tracked chassis (Tor). -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
The GM-352 chassis used by some earlier Tunguskas is made in Minsk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GM_chassis -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Dobrev says they are already considering classifying information about Russian forex reserves, always a good sign. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Well, as far as the ones we've seen, it looks like they're on Renault Sherpas, which would indicate they are indeed the French service ones. I see, well, they have to deploy anyway to fire, so I don't think it makes that much of a difference. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Can it not be fired with the crew in the cabin? -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
As I recall, it has been reported that at least some of the CAESARs sent to Ukraine were originally meant for export. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
His argument is also highly flawed historically because the last few times this happened in the 20th century, the Russians had significant external help from the West. In the build-up to World War I, after the humiliation of the Russo-Japanese War, the French invested heavily in Russia's arms industry and infrastructure (e.g. Schneider et cie. bought out the Putilov works, and French funding helped build the Trans-Siberian Railway). After the Russian Civil War, American technical expertise practically built the Soviet industrial base from the absolute ruins of the Civil War, and Lend-Lease gave the Soviet industry the critical life support that it needed post-Barbarossa to produce basic things like explosives. Otherwise the Soviets would have run out of shells sometime in 1942/43. Furthermore, the actual military material help (tanks, aircraft, etc.) was also significant and started arriving during the most critical phases of the Eastern Front. Who is going to do that after this war? China? They have no interest in rebuilding Russia, they just want it as a cheap oil and other resource extraction site. At best they want a Russia that can distract the Europeans. -
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
Calamine Waffles replied to Probus's topic in Combat Mission Black Sea
Germany is a bit different because they went through the actual "de-Nazification", which Japan never really did. That's why they still have a fairly strong ultra-nationalist element in their politics. That's cute, but the British didn't occupy and subjugate France or Germany with anywhere near the same level of brutality that Japan did to Korea. Also, many of these wounds are still quite fresh in the region. You have a point re: Turkey and Greece, but Greece is a relatively minor partner in NATO. On the other hand, Japan and Korea would be two of the most important partners in any would-be Indo-Pacific Mutual Defence Bloc.