Huba

So it looks like Ukraine will buy/ get a battery or two of ground launched Naval Strike Missiles from us. This is rather interesting development. So Poland at the moment has 4 batteries (12 launchers total) and probably around a 100 missiles for them. There was a big order for more made recently, worth IIRC around $500M or so, enough for double what we have already. Polish milnet was in a bit of a pickle regarding it, as what we have is enough for our foreseeable needs, with more needed either for foreign deployments, or indeed to allow sending what we have to Ukraine.
So I wonder what applications will these have, given that UA Harpoons already keep the BSF at bay around Odessa? One application would be striking ground targets of course, NSM is capable of that but it would be a waste of very expensive missile (with relatively small warhead). It doesn,tt have the range to strike Sevastopol or Kerch ( 220km stated range, while 300 is needed). I guess it could be used to attack ships in the Sea of Azov ports like Mariupol or Berdyansk, flying overland, thus denying Russian their use for resupplying the front. IMO this would be it's primary use now.
If Ukrainians manage to push the frontline a bit though, It would spell doom for the BSF, attacking ships on anchor in Crimean ports, but more importantly it could cover the entire Sea of Azov and thus trap it in the eastern part of the Black Sea.
Link to the original article (in English)
https://defence24.com/armed-forces/polish-coastal-defence-missiles-heading-to-ukraine-exclusive

So it looks like Ukraine will buy/ get a battery or two of ground launched Naval Strike Missiles from us. This is rather interesting development. So Poland at the moment has 4 batteries (12 launchers total) and probably around a 100 missiles for them. There was a big order for more made recently, worth IIRC around $500M or so, enough for double what we have already. Polish milnet was in a bit of a pickle regarding it, as what we have is enough for our foreseeable needs, with more needed either for foreign deployments, or indeed to allow sending what we have to Ukraine.
So I wonder what applications will these have, given that UA Harpoons already keep the BSF at bay around Odessa? One application would be striking ground targets of course, NSM is capable of that but it would be a waste of very expensive missile (with relatively small warhead). It doesn,tt have the range to strike Sevastopol or Kerch ( 220km stated range, while 300 is needed). I guess it could be used to attack ships in the Sea of Azov ports like Mariupol or Berdyansk, flying overland, thus denying Russian their use for resupplying the front. IMO this would be it's primary use now.
If Ukrainians manage to push the frontline a bit though, It would spell doom for the BSF, attacking ships on anchor in Crimean ports, but more importantly it could cover the entire Sea of Azov and thus trap it in the eastern part of the Black Sea.
Link to the original article (in English)
https://defence24.com/armed-forces/polish-coastal-defence-missiles-heading-to-ukraine-exclusive

There is absolutely no sense of self-awareness as to how insane this is, and it seems to be pervasive within the Russian culture.    "Narcissim:  selfishness, involving a sense of entitlement, a lack of empathy, and a need for admiration, as characterizing a personality type."   Narcissist are simply unable to understand or conceptualize that their behavior is abnormal or unacceptable to others.  Thus--they lack the introspective ability to learn from their mistakes and correct their behavior.    From everything I've seen over the past 18 months--this is Russia which makes it extremely difficult to engage in reasonable and productive discourse to try to put an end to their madness.          

If you have a spare 1 and a half hours this is well worth a watch IMHO.
I'm not going to attempt to summarise it  It does include their take on the Prig thing but much more than that as you can probably guess from the title.

It is one of the great shortfalls within the west - articulation of strategic ends.  I think when Ukraine wins or at least the final lines are drawn a true test of western unity will occur.  In my opinion as a min:
- Russian conventional forces must be pushed back out of Ukraine.  Russia needs to hold its sh#t together however it can post-war and we have to be ready to shape that if required.
- where the final lines are actually drawn should be an internal matter for Ukraine to sort out; however, a democratic process must be employed and some international support/oversight will likely be required.
- Russia must agree to regime change, war crimes prosecution and reparations before normalization with the west can occur.  This may not happen for a very long time given political realities in Russia, so buckle in we are likely in for a long haul.
- Ukraine’s security must be guaranteed.  Not some squishy Russian promises or weasely UN type of thing.  We are talking NATO for formal collective defence binding treaties.
- Ukraine must be rebuilt, they did the bleeding to blunt (and maybe break) Russia, western reconstruction in that country must be historic. Rebuilding also means economic agreements and long term sustainability.
- Russia must be 1) contained through strong military, diplomatic and economic deterrence, and 2) made more China’s problem than ours (so should North Korea for that matter. China wants to be a big boy, it needs to take responsibility and accountability for its power pole (lord knows the US has been wearing theirs for decades).
- The West needs to recognize the world that we are in, not the one we want.  Stop in-fighting and petty bickering, and defend the bloody international order like we mean it.  
Will we get all of these?  Seriously doubt it.  Should we be shooting for them, yes.
 

Depending on who's accompanying you, I really recommend a quick train trip to Figueres where, on top of enjoying the train ride itself,  cultured people can visit an (reportedly) amazing Salvador Dali museum, and less cultured ones can see this amazing fortress:

Depending on who's accompanying you, I really recommend a quick train trip to Figueres where, on top of enjoying the train ride itself,  cultured people can visit an (reportedly) amazing Salvador Dali museum, and less cultured ones can see this amazing fortress:

A very interesting piece of RUMINT, but from a notoriously reliable guy. Reportedly Ukrainians (with a little bit of foreign help...) managed overhaul and put back in service some S200 missiles. He hints at G2G use, with some small modifications it could be useful and rather hard to defend against.
 

A very interesting piece of RUMINT, but from a notoriously reliable guy. Reportedly Ukrainians (with a little bit of foreign help...) managed overhaul and put back in service some S200 missiles. He hints at G2G use, with some small modifications it could be useful and rather hard to defend against.
 

One more reason to declare Russia a terrorist state. 

UR-77 against dug in position with follow up assault by mech plt
 
 

Good news from the front, at least.  Dnieper bridgehead intact and expanding, Rivnopil taken, and RU TV says Bakhmut will soon fall -- such irony.  But the best news is UK assessment says RU has already deployed its reserves and has nothing left.  Let's hope this is true, as it would mean a breakout could happen.  The dang mines sound like hell on earth but even those are finite in depth. 
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/6/26/2177777/-Ukraine-update-While-Russia-falls-apart-Ukraine-makes-progress-on-the-frontlines
 

I don't think anybody wanted to be in that picture. Shoigu does look like he understands he is the one who might be shot tomorrow morning, though. I wonder if he had the sense to get his family out of Russia?

So... "most important speech in latest history of Russia"  lasted 5 mins...and ofc.nothing special come out of it. The only interesting thing is that Putin now should proceed with meeting of joined defences agencies. Even Zolotov is there.
They may decide to do something against Wganerites in the end.
Also, my very limited knowledge of official Russian may nontheless suggest "going to Belarus" has some strong medieval vibes, and synonymous with banishing from the kingdom for time being, perhaps for long time. Also note this thrope also means they would not be protected by law and destroyed if try to go back in any way. It may be wrong feeling, though, and they will be still used actively by Russian state.

Approx 20 minutes ago, judging from initial reports.
 
https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-latest-putin-wagner-prigozhin-belarus-war-live-updates-12541713?postid=6101839#liveblog-body
 

Prigozhin remains defiant and defends his actions, but reiterates it was not aimed at “top leadership” of country, and walks back more extensive goals for “justice” to simply preserving Wagner:
EDIT: better summary from Dmitri:
 

Slow but steady...Rivnopil taken. Novosilka Axis
 
 

AFAIK He had not been seen in public. He's most likely still in his bunker at one of his residences. He seldom leaves it because he is terrified of covid.
 
There are several rumors, but I have yet to come across anything reliable. The most common is the replacement of Shoigu and Gerasimov for Dumin and Surovikin. 
There is no information on long-term plan, but if we evaluate the theme of public messages Prig have sent for a few months, we can see a specific pattern:
Old foolish and inept RU generals are to blame for the failure to win the war. Explain all dishonorable orders (such as retreat orders) as necessary to minimize damage done by generals. Stop assaulting, shift to strategic defense, begin retreating from indefensible land, defend what is possible, delay AFU. If it is not possible, withdraw totally from Ukraine. Sue for peace selling it to the RU public as a hard but necessary move (We need time to train soldiers because we are now sending them unprepared because to old, foolish, inept generals). It is unknown how they intend to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, but given Wagnerite propensity for violence, it might be another terror campaign or even nuclear threats. Wait it out till the West (ahem, "old" Europeans, ahem) resume dealing with them because make peace not war, fair treatment and do not poke Nazi bear

This was my favorite line " the strengthening of crime, primarily criminal ethnic groups from migrants"
 
Umm your primary criminal ethnic group is your freakin gov't.  🤣

Does Prig's (or Utkin's) Thunder Run past Voronezh give Putin more cause/ability to undertake a further mobilisation of the general Russian populace? It's demonstrated what "could happen" if UKR break the current lines, and with the "loss" of chunks of Wagner, there's gonna be personnel holes to fill.
If there were to be a mobilisation wave, with half going straight to the front after a fortnight's Basic, and the rest getting "proper training", would that put UKR onto a tighter clock, with (slightly) stiffer headwinds? Or would it make no difference to the Summer's activities?
It's such a shame that Kadyrov and his TikTok Toy soldiers are so shy. Would have been nice to see them charge into Wagner and both their numbers start ticking down, even if it was only for a day. That said, could they have been instructed to stand clear until the situation resolved a bit more?

Whoa, that was anticlimactic! I won't even try to speculate what all that was about, and what outcome will it bring. I just hope AFU didn't get too overoptimistic about imminent RU collapse and didn't overextend itself with the major strikes they announced. Especially the Antonovsky bridgehead sounds like a very interesting development, but with a potential to quickly turn into a sizeable defeat if RU manages to counterattack it with enough forces. Worrisome, all of that.

If legit, it is I think a first such declaration from an army unit:
 

OK, that's too much, I'm taking an one hour break:
 

OK, that's too much, I'm taking an one hour break:
 

OK, that's too much, I'm taking an one hour break: