FancyCat

Do we have any evidence that RU forces won't surrender to UKR forces? Maybe our Russian speakers can enlighten us, but I'm under the impression that RU forces don't consider UKR forces to be "bloodthirsty" especially with the frequent reports of prisoner exchanges, including the Azov whom one would probably consider to be the most likely to get hung by Russia, have been exchanged. Maybe the fear of being tried for warcrimes? but i dunno if thats the same as being executed.

wow some precise hits.

Lavrov's statement is merely one of a extremely long line of statements by the RU government, state media pushing for annexation of "New Russia", there is no way to prep the Russian people or foreign relations that Kherson is being given away as a "goodwill gesture", like literally none. The seizure of Kherson oblast aside from actually getting a whole oblast also meant a great jumping point for the liberation of Odessa and further pushes into Ukraine. These areas are also part of this "New Russia". Mind you, the same structures being created to annex these regions are the same structures needed to more closely turn these regions into manpower and used like the puppet regimes in the Donbas. It just so happens that these structures are one and the same. This issue is bound to occur wherever occupation administrations are set up cause this is how Russia justifies it. These are regions of Russia, composed of Russians, under threat by Nazis, seeking the return of the USSR.

If Ukraine takes the city, Russia will blow the bridge anyway to prevent Ukraine crossing so either way the bridge gets destroyed.

Remember Russia cannot give away Kherson as a goodwill gesture. If Russia loses Kherson, this will spook their Donbas puppets and other collaborators. Not to mention empower pro-Ukrainian elements in occupied territories. Kherson being taken by Ukraine will be a defeat for Russia, worse than Kiev and certainly worse than any setback for the cities in Donbas. Russia must keep the city. That or face the prospect of telling the Russian people they are losing, and then when the Russian people call for mobilization to win the war, Putin either mobilizes and signs his death sentence in due course or does not, and must answer why all of Ukraine and Crimea is lost. (Not that mobilization won't result in the same outcome but basically he's screwed) Therefore, expect Putin to throw everything into holding Kherson.

Maybe language/translation issue but what a silly statement on the face of it.

Doubtful. That would mean the U.S having to deal with a bunch of scrambling European crises and its pretty clear by now, the U.S prefers a quiet Europe so it can focus on China/Iran, etc.

Big props must go to Ukraine for her relentless advocacy for the equipment and weapons needed to defeat Russia, and their intelligence in using what limited Western equipment they get to hurt Russia and illustrate further shipments are well used but if Biden pulls off the complete defeat of Russia in Ukraine thru the slow, seemingly lackluster supply of Ukraine, it will be a masterclass in IR management of nuclear power proxy conflict. While everyday I wish for F-16s in Ukrainian colors to fly over Ukrainian territory, I will settle for the strategy of providing very little to Ukraine, then more.

I think the main reason why Ukraine is not rushing to blow the Kherson crossing points is right now, Russia is stuck reinforcing and holding a very poor position on the western bank of the Dnipro with a frontline on the outskirts of Kherson all the way matching nearly all of Kherson oblast borders. My thoughts are that Russia, both to prep for future offensives towards Kryvyi Rih and Mykolaiv and to seize full control of the oblast borders for annexation is now stuck in a position where only two crossing points exist for the reinforcement of such a long front line that they cannot withdraw due to political and strategic reasons. If I'm Ukraine, I want to take advantage of this situation to destroy as much Russian hardware as possible. If I were Russia, I would withdraw all forces from the western bank except for a group of last stands in Kherson, pull back over to the Eastern bank, where I think I can better fight back against Ukrainian long range artillery and have better logistical movement than literally two crossing points. But that means giving up the occupation and annexation of Kherson oblast. A extremely costly decision, one that cannot be handwaved away in the domestic or foreign sense. Furthermore, shipments of the rest of long range NATO artillery have not arrived yet. This is the appetizer. We have the rest of summer for Ukraine to launch the offensive, and they will use that time to more safely degrade Russian capability in Kherson with less risk for their own units.

Isn't it just one supplier?

Air Defense, there's not a lot to stop Russian aircraft from making mincemeat of any mechanized UKR offensive. That means probably Ukraine is limited to slow moving offensives and unable to gather mass for fear of losing them to air attacks. Not sure how Ukraine resolves this aside from just leap frogging every town and village in Kherson oblast.

Well, i assume this is good.

In some sobering news, the OSCE has submitted a document detailing the results of investigations into war crimes, violations of international and humanitarian law from April 1 to June 25, tho events only uncovered within this period are also discussed from prior time. The war crimes are sanctioned, extensive. https://www.osce.org/odihr/522616 Russia did not bother to assist the investigation nor communicate back to the OSCE regarding it. For a much condensed summary, the U.S has one with helpful page references. https://osce.usmission.gov/response-to-moscow-mechanism-report-on-ukraine/ Mark Hartling puts it quite well. May I add that for a UN Security Council permanent representative nation to so openly conduct war crimes and actions violating international law, and one that was looked upon as to counter balance Western domination on the world stage is a deeply disappointing and terrifying reality if you worried about western hypocrisy and counted on balance to maintain international humanitarian law. There can be no peace without the withdrawal of Russia from all of Ukraine, and the restoration of its citizens back to their borders.

Let's not underestimate terror attacks. They may not immediately break morale but their use strains and tightens the leeway of the rear and home front. Hopefully NATO gets off it's slowness and accelerates the arming of Ukraine. Modern war is intensively resource consuming, but I'm not seeing the ramp up needed to assist Ukraine.

I was under impression Ukraine had retreated to a new frontline at Siversk but the line is anchored east of the city.

The Conflict Intelligence Team is now publishing dispatches in English.

The first MLRS systems are not up and running in Ukraine yet, I assume that the slower platforms that cannot shoot and move as fast, will be assigned to fire support for units in offensive operations, with the faster units keeping strategic targets under fire. I too was worried about the lack of progress, but after watching how the HIMARS worked, and knowing that we still have many more not online and operating in Ukraine, it makes sense to wait, and once the artillery is massed more, Russia can start enduring some of the fire they have been giving the Ukrainians. The real question is once the artillery is hitting Kherson, can the Russians hold, and can the Ukrainians advance with this? Crossing my fingers that quality, range overpower the Russian quantity of guns.

It's interesting, Russia has shown no inclination to even feign de-escalation. Bigger targets, bigger, more civilian targets, the officers house was about to host a concert, whatever the argument between de-escalation vs bombing civilian targets like universities, concert halls, etc vs trying to at least targeting military targets. You would think that Russia would dial it down while upping the offensive. I wonder if the lull in the offensive and artillery ammo shortage meant Russia is simply pursuing missiles to retain some pressure on Ukraine. Nasa FIRMS has been quieter for a few days no?

It takes a lot of time to plan a war, much less a conquest and annexation of a country. I still believe factors like Trump's 2nd term and the prospect of a divided West and NATO meant the time was right, alongside all the other factors mentioned before. Also notable, COVID damaged the worldwide economy and has made economic warfare and pressure extremely potent. We should probably not underestimate the effect of a worldwide pandemic, with morality facing him, one that differs much more than a assassination, and probably quite easier to get him than the latter. His actions with the stupidly long meeting tables attest to that.

German public remains in support of Ukraine. That and the continued Russian terror attacks will only make it easier for NATO to supply more weapons to Ukraine. I expect that the American limit on attacks on Russian territory with American provided equipment will start to falter as this keeps up.

Russian Imperialism and Colonialism, with all the baggage of the Soviet and Tsar era paranoid about invasion. One way I would like think of it, and compare it to, is sorta, the French control of Algeria, and the attempt by France to turn it into a integral part of France, vs simply a colonial part of its Empire, which we all know failed, yet France's government still holds views that veers quite opposed to reflection on its colonialism and imperialism. In contrast Russia and Ukraine are way more tied together but its honestly not too surprising that Russia seeks to control Ukraine, only that it was full scale invasion, but probably just some big Russian arrogance? Rumors indicate that the Ukrainians who Russia proposed as puppets had falsely stated Ukraine would tip over easily. Zelensky, Russian propaganda is quite crude, i wonder, if some of that has to reflect upon what the Russian government thinks of the resistance of the Ukrainian government?

Can't disagree with that. Hopefully this can end sooner than later.

Looks like Russia is finally getting over its shock and redoubling their efforts in the hybrid war.