FancyCat

tbh, i assume the IFVs and APCs are more useful than the tanks, tho I'm sure if I'm a tanker, I wouldn't mind the Leo, aren't they more spacious than the current Soviet workhorses? and honestly, it would be nice to get some NATO vs peer data, I recall the Abrams didn't explode that hugely in Iraq vs ISIS, but it would be nice to get some data from Ukraine if possible vs full extent of Russian and Soviet anti-tank and artillery. Same with the Patriots, and it's good we found out the PzH 2000s are not useful for high intensity fire, hopefully they can update the design to accommodate it for the future. I mean yes, potential for this stuff to fall into enemy hands, but we gave the Patriot system to Saudi Arabia, PzH to Qatar, Abrams fell into ISIS hands more than once, etc, I don't think it represents a bigger security risk moreso than prior exports.

Nothing wrong with journalists uncovering sanctions running, the key is for the government to take notice and bust them, which as the arrests indicate is occurring.

a part of a longer twitter thread looking at why Bakhmut might not be senseless for Russia to take. summed up as Russia still has combat potential, and intends on using it for further offensives.

NATO has and is providing bridge laying equipment, mine clearing equipment, and maintenance and repair vehicles to get combat vehicles back for repair, so certainly, Ukraine and NATO are aware and prepping for current and future logistical demands on Ukraine due to NATO deliveries, whatever they may be.

Sure, but the same applies to Scholz and Biden, and the rest. As pointed out, the SPD holds significant elements who still wish to maintain some retainment of the Ostpolitik policy, and it’s way easier to maintain plausible deniability as a lock-step acting with NATO than Germany giving aid to Ukraine with gusto. Also, this is not Zelensky, this is Commander of the Ukrainian military, General Zeluzhny, there’s a difference, he’s a military man through and through. Was even kind enough to point out he’s not asking for F-16s. Recall the statements on 155mm ammunition, we know now once the danger passed, that it was getting extremely serious for Ukraine, including active inability to respond to Russian artillery fire due to lack of ammo that resulted in Ukrainian forces being damaged to very close breaking points and some units broke indeed.

State secrets indeed. For all we know there's a bunch of Ukrainians in a German military barracks right now studying who knows what. As you said it yourself, those are state secrets comrade. All we can do is look at what Ukraine says it needs, and the statements from Zeluzhny are clear enough. "We have enough people, and I can clearly see what I have. I have enough. I don’t need hundreds of thousands more. We need tanks, we need APCs [armoured personnel carriers], infantry fighting vehicles. And we need ammunition. Please note, I’m not talking about F-16s right now." "We use a lot fewer shells. I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd. But I can’t do it with two brigades. I get what I get, but it is less than what I need. It is not yet time to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers in the way that Mannerheim appealed to Finnish soldiers. We can and should take a lot more territory." He also says that Russia has learned to counter HIMARS and that mobilization has worked for Russia. We should remind ourselves that Ukraine will seek to show the best parts of themselves and to hide their issues but from what I'm guessing, Ukraine has such high demands for maintenance and repair that their Soviet stockpiles are running out, and if he's saying that missile strikes do successfully hit their targets, it's not unreasonable to think aside from impacting power and electricity for civilians, what industrial capability for the war like maintenance and repair is being impacted or seriously damaged. Remember Ukraine has placed strict rules on giving out ISR of strikes, for all we know, the repair and maintenance and production facilities in Europe are essential as anything that is spotted by Russia in Ukraine gets missile striked or must be very small repairs and relocated for security reasons.

But how much of this stuff is left in reserves or mothballed? The West has been cutting military budgets for a long time, including scrapping old hardware, shutting down production, one of the biggest productors and maintainers of Soviet hardware post cold war is Ukraine itself, as reported, only one S-300 battery has been sent to Ukraine, it doesn't exist elsewhere. What if we are reaching the point of exhaustion of Soviet equipment? This war is not ending anytime soon, the interviews from Ukraine's commanders indicate so, so the idea of tailoring our expectations for a year remaining of conflict seem foolish now.

https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript Pulling quotes from it, y'all will be happy to hear Commander in Chief Zeluzhny strongly supports your view, the objective is killing Russians. A General shot himself, how Soviet of him. He believes Russia is set for the long haul, including new offensives. Interesting, just plain states Ukraine is prepping for a new offensive and is thereby holding stuff in reserve instead of feeding it for the current frontline. Nvm, preparing for new Russian offensives, building a reserve to counter it when it comes. Whatever, it's paywalled so you get the whole interview bar a bit. https://www.economist.com/syrsky-interview I'll pull the quotes as well below. Okay, I lied it's the whole interview. Hmm. I've been worried about Russia mobilizing, about the lack of pushback on mobilized being shoved into Ukraine, the idea that Russia is defeated is not coming true and certainly Ukraine's leading commanders aren't operating under that assumption. The west needs to react accordingly or risk Ukraine being pushed back even.

Oh how I wish the Shakheds were the ballistic missiles (they are drones). The ballistic missiles Iran may send to Russia are the Fateh-110 missiles, and Zolfaghar. According to wiki, Fateh were used in the Iranian missile attacks on U.S bases in Iraq, which incidentally had no missile defense stationed so all hit. Zolfaghar may have been used in the missile attacks on Saudi oil facilities, which Patriot batteries defended well. Of course fingers crossed, that Ukraine's existing AD systems can shoot them down. But the statement on ballistic missiles seems sourced from Ukraine's Air Force itself. Hopefully they are lying.

Not much new, but interesting tidbit, so far, the only long-range AD from the West to Ukraine, has been a sole Slovakian S-300 battery until now. According to article, the short-range Iranian ballistic missiles are impossible to shoot down with what Ukraine has existing for AD, (uh damn, that does not sound good at all) but Patriots have proven ability to shoot them down. I will say while reactive measures in response to Russia have lots of positive benefits like making clear Putin is the aggressor, I'm going to assume that Russia can get and use these ballistic missiles before Ukraine can activate the Patriot systems, so Ukrainian civilians are gonna bear the brunt of these attacks, and they will cause significant pain for Ukraine, and Europe as Ukrainians need to flee, and infrastructure is destroyed. Tho this quote regarding the training time, hopefully this can be online sooner than later. https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-to-get-advanced-american-air-defenses-164807603.html

No one is saying the U.S sucks mind you. Why I think the west screwed up, is that Putin figured he had a chance to do this. One thing to try 2014 again and seize the rest of the Donbas, but damn, he went for the whole goose. I am unsure if he’s rational still or gone wonky over Covid, but either way, he drove a nation to engage in a full scale war of conquest vs a country of 40 million. (Iraq is 40 million but we didn’t want to run it forever) you don’t undertake that scenario in isolation, or get your country to follow thru without some idea of the circumstances. no doubt China was informed by Putin, they sure were gonna spend their time twisting the knife in the West once Ukraine fell, rhetorically and diplomatically. Would have been a powerful signal worldwide heralding western decline.

Not if Russia gets Iran to sign on the dotted line. Anyone had on their bingo card Iranian ballistic missiles being launched from Russia into Ukraine? I'm hoping I'm wrong and Russia is truly nearing defeat but I'm not encouraged by Putin doubling down like this.

In the past, Russia has leveraged itself to sabotage both Iran and the West in diplomacy, and related. This is looking to be buried dirt amid deepening cooperation between the two countries. Russia looks slated to provide AD systems, fighters and helicopters to Iran in return for drones and maybe even ballistic missiles including creation of domestic production lines for drones in Russia. With domestic protests in Iran essentially sinking the Iran nuclear deal as viable in the west, it seems likely Iran will continue to cooperate with Russia. Question I wonder is how long before Israel gets involved since Iran is benefitting from Su-35s, foreign currency influx from Russia, potentially transfer of the S-400 tech and systems, etc. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/us-russia-iran-moving-full-defense-partnership-94874612

The wheels of arms procurement cycle onward. Likely a 3rd party purchased it for Ukraine according to follow-up tweets.

Sure, you could use that as justification early on but not now, Ukraine has provided results. Real good results.

We need to go back to 2014 and the collective decision of the West to accommodate Putin, not supply weapons to Ukraine, not insist on damaging sanctions to Russia (French and German weapon exports to Russia persisted till the invasion) and to treat Putin like his invasion was no biggie. That failure to treat the first invasion directly contributed to Putin feeling like Ukraine was his and Russia's to do as they wished. Cause he thinks the West is gonna fold up like a paper napkin. Actions like not providing Western tanks, not escalating aid in response to his escalations only reinforce this. Tho, the Patriot missile systems and medium range AD systems are very useful and a proper response to Putin so let's see.

I wouldn't say the war does not make sense. It does, it's just Putin underestimated Ukraine.

If we recall at the beginning of the invasion, rumors of division and opposition to the invasion and by prowar hawks in the Russian government were present. This alongside other ideas of controlled opposition like anti war Russians who conveniently don't support sanctions are a way of giving false hope to the west, discouraging any actions like increasing aid to Ukraine in a bid to not empower hawks in Russia. Something to consider in light of Putin doubling down, and having carried out mobilization successfully.

If his goal was merely to live, he wouldn't be doubling down in a war where the longer it goes on, the chances of him not surviving it's end increases. He wants a restored a Russian Empire, not him overseeing the ruins of a country.

As dan/California stated, why is a PzH 2000 fine but not a Leopard to Russia?

And for anyone in the West, which is so cautious and adamant about the lives of their servicemen to roll their eyes at Ukraine and Ukrainians seeking the same protection, that is just a shameful attitude, lacking in compassion and regard for them. Have you seen the videos of Ukrainians kneeling in front of funeral processions? You don't hear much complaining about Ukraine giving up Russian PoWs in 1 to 3 or other rationed swaps, just gratefulness for their return. The idea of keeping a pilot, a general or some other personnel who is useful/vital to the Russian war effort is less a concern than the return of their men and women. Escalation hits both ways, goddamn, do you think Putin or Russians wanna die in nuclear fire? They complain so much about being locked out of Europe and their vacation homes and yachts. They love their luxuries as much as anyone else. Christ, the West needs to stop acting like Russia is some rabid bear, incapable of reasoning and motivation, only primal thought. It's just racism. Edit: Putin sits at the end of a verry long table cause of COVID, what about that makes you think he is fine with nuclear death?

Recall in 2014 the failure of the West to stand up to Russia and support Ukraine, which extended to weapons and equipment support refusals beyond 2014 till very recently. In hindsight, had the West pushed back on Russia, this invasion, the deaths and suffering in this invasion, and the worldwide effects and instability caused by this war might have all been avoided. In return for our accommodation with Russia we have literally gotten nothing. The west got literally nothing from treating Putin and Russia with silver gloves. In that time period from 2014 - 2022, Russia has only in every way poisoned and sought to defeat the West, subvert it, and this invasion, had it been successful, was just the next step for Russia to challenge NATO, the EU, and the U.S hegemony worldwide. So...to sit back and grumble, and complain about having to help Ukraine defend itself, ignoring the entire reality that the international system that obliges states to defend the sovereignty of another (UN charter) is a construct of the West largely and for the West's benefit, and that Russia's goal was to knock it all down, well...tbh we are acting ungrateful to Ukraine for handing the EU, NATO, a chance to stop western decline. To bring up a quote from the capt, bringing Russia back to the international order that he states is a goal of the West, ignores the suffering, instability, and the desire to overthrow the West and reassert Russia as a great power capable of contesting the West on every front. In return for treating Russia with kid gloves, we only got a wolf that sought to annex Ukraine and reassert itself in Europe with violence and malaise. Russia is our enemy. Russia is hostile to every aspect of the West, in the sense that it wants to regain influence and power that the West holds. That Ukraine and the Ukrainian people want to join the West fully and be part of the U.S hegemony, should not be ignored nor treated with disdain especially in a world where Western cultural and social influence is under assault and in decline. Again, Russia has shown no desire to do nothing more than stab a knife into the West. Ukraine has shown clear desire to join the West. Can we not act like stuck up people, who are giving alms to the poor and expect gratitude when we are partly responsible for them being poor in the first place? Ukraine wants western tanks partly to kill Russians, partly to protect the lives of their servicemen cause surprise, western tanks are built to preserve the lives of the crew. Have you seen Russia and how they treat their soldiers? We expect Ukraine to operate by the highest levels of western morals and treat Russian soldiers with compassion, without Western money, or equipment to protect their own. Not to mention we give F-16s to Iraq, which actually is resentful to the West (with good reason), Saudi Arabia gets patriot batteries, F-16s, and stabs us regularly, and we just threw away so much in Afghanistan, and here we have a country and people united as never before, and seeking to turn a enemy of the West into a pancake and we are grossly acting with callousness. It's one thing to be cautious about Russia. It's another thing to just treat Ukraine with disdain for daring to ask, to demand, to beg in the first place.

I do want to warn that Ukrainian self-censorship and clampdown on information is in full swing, so while everything may be sort of rosy on the outside, we have no idea internally how bad or near exhausted the supply situation is, so we might be able to say "Russia is on the ropes", but certainly Ukraine will not broadcast the same. Something to consider. Ukraine won't be broadcasting that their supply of Soviet era tanks or IFVs is almost spent, and their begging for 155mm was pure final desperation before exhausting the stocks.

Kosovo loves the west and the U.S in particular. I guess if we are looking for Western interventions where people like that it occurred, that would count.