FancyCat

A document is circulating stating that Russian local authorities in Moscow, Crimea should offer free land to servicemen and families of such including those deceased, land in those territories. Part and parcel of ethnic cleansing is the replacement of the existing population. A reminder that not only is Russia depopulating and forcibly moving populations in occupied regions, they are also moving in settlers. Any peace settlement that does not take into account the population changes in Ukraine as a result of crimes against humanity would be a disaster for signaling to Russia that this is unacceptable. Any referendum in the Donbas or Crimea should allow the displaced rights to vote for example and strip the right from those who moved in since 2014. https://news.yahoo.com/putin-decides-gift-land-crimea-135405502.html

Something to ponder in terms of Polish-Ukrainian rapprochement, is the example of Franco-German unity, one of the driving engines of the EU and European unity. I mean when we review history, I mean the current unity is not that fated, and I think sometimes we forget that these two powerhouses of Europe were usually more at each other's throats than not, so the fact they put their long held enmity to become near immensely close allies and friends after one of their most destructive periods of warring, should be a powerful reminder that countries are not fated to clash with one another. There will be sore spots, and Ukraine and Poland have a lot to do, but I firmly believe the EU will serve as the decisive factor promoting peaceful integration and cooperation in Ukraine and Poland and the rest of Europe. The success of the European Union is directly counter to Putin's dream of a revitalized Imperial Russia, more so than NATO. Nukes can always protect and threaten against NATO but Russia was losing Ukraine and Belarus against domestic unrest propelled by the EU on their borders, not the threat of a U.S led NATO invasion of them.

Who knows, maybe the conscription goals are not tailored for population density, and Sakhalin needs to mobilize them to make the quotas. Maybe some sort of corruption had removed all numbers of people to government salaries or pensions or whatnot. Interesting that police might not be exempt. Who conducts the mobilization and monitors the conscripted, if not the police? Maybe Russia is finally prioritizing the infrastructure of trainers and associated personnel throughout Russia so police aren't as needed at least in catching fleeing mobilization. If true, Putin and co are betting on winning or freezing the war, and betting on short term measures. In the environment they are choosing to make their decisions, while I'm sure Ukraine can defeat the offensive, it is perfectly feasible for Russia to launch a very stupid offensive in Ukraine.

One of the 3 people arrested in Albania a few months ago, looks like she is a spy if Russia is making **** up to try and get her back.

I’m not worried about Ukraine, their civil society seems strong enough to keep pushing in the right direction, the EU is and will continue to be a powerful orientation point. The reproachment by both Poland and Ukraine will continue. S-300 destroyed in Kherson seemingly by Russian friendly fire, then became Russian properly destroying their equipment before leaving, more info uncovered in the tweet thread.

They do that anyway. And then ignore every Nazi Russian, every genocidal Russian saying “kill the Ukrainians”. I mean it’s a bit galling to have Ukrainians criticized and then Russia gets to hide behind big bad NATO instead of genocidal murder of Ukrainians by those who support them. Tho, it is kinda bull about the Marders….I mean we sent them MRAPs, what the hell is the difference(I know there’s a difference, the point is why is this IFV so different than a MRAP that also has a gun on top), sure, big scary tank, no, no, but why this mrap and not this IFV.

can’t find better sourcing, but notably, this tank has their own personal drone for recon.

Mind you, as painful as it is to see trade flowing and Russia benefiting, end of the day, it is vital that Russian oil and gas be exported, else it drives heavier inflation and instability for the world’s poorest countries. The key is to force Putin to sell gas and oil as cheaply as possible while ensuring that its worth it for Russia to export it lest they lose what vital foreign currency they get from the trade. I’ve always been of the opinion, instead of stopping Russian exports, just give Ukraine more guns and equipment, as a apology for not stopping the trade.

Why wouldn’t buyers of Russian oil be unhappy forcing Russia to sell oil for cheaper, is something I don’t see critics of the oil cap addressing, absolute fools. It’s totally in China and India’s interest to get Russian oil as cheap as possible.

There was a suggestion I read somewhere about the apologia for the Soviet Union reaching such levels and deeply in Russia that it has impacted Russian military and political thinking, including being fine with ideas such as the massed human wave tactics and loss of life that is popular perception of the early stages of the WW2 eastern front. Unnervingly it seems to be coming true than mere lies. Russia will lose but Ukrainians will die much more as well, and Russians too tho I have less sympathy for them.

Mind you, every military, police force, has a far-right component, U.S included. Especially Russia.

The picture painted in the NYT article (it's very good detailed reading), is that of a Putin who if he orders a 2nd offensive on Kiyv, will get it. Of course, perception and reality are often different but certainly this invasion occurred with nearly no internal Russian pushback. Also that hyperbole about Putin being a Tsar and the Russian people merely being serfs, well the article does not disspell that hyperbole. No reason to hope internal issues will toss Russia out of the war.

There is probably a good benefit to massing on Kiyv again, logistics is probably easier to mass since Ukraine must be careful to not hit Russian and Belarusian territory unlike any occupied Ukrainian territory. You should read the NYT article just linked, just a stunning read at how stupid Putin is.

I remember when rumors at the beginning of the invasion noted the FSB was in trouble with Putin, that seemingly came to naught. We also had the sustained Ukrainian PR campaign concerning Kherson. At this point, who knows what's legit and what's not. Both Russia and Ukraine at least to our public eyes have retained the ability to trick. It is impressive that Russia got so caught off guard in Kharkiv, intelligence means nothing without the needed eyes and understanding of the Intel. Sure there were rumors of Ukrainians massing but it was not acted upon.

Ukrainian Air Force pilot "Juice" gives a interview on the state of the air war now. Must read! Praise for the SEAD missions enabled by the HARM missiles. Russians staying wary with tangling with UAF but they still are operating and trying to silence them EW and with their own SEAD, tho not as effective as supposed to be. The long range Air to Air missile R-37M is now in use by Russia, and it's dangerous. They have mercenary Wagner pilots who are seemingly tasked with the more suicidal missions, operating older jets and acting in general with some more callousness than RuAF. Big warning, Russia is now putting online older airframes, older air defense less capable but planes are planes, AD is AD. Big issue I think, if Ukraine is forced to rely on what little airframes it has remaining without more coming online. He mentions the Army Aviation, who operate helicopters, who sorely need more aid, including Western helicopters if possible. Did mention that his and Ukraine's advocacy is making dividends in that the West is considering how to best approach providing aid over the long terms including western airframes potentially. Biggest hurdle for western jets is political, not technical or logistically. (Which is obvious, I don't doubt meeting with Ukrainian pilots changes minds on whether Ukraine can handle western aircraft) Essential reading. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-mig-29-pilots-inside-account-of-the-changing-air-war-over-ukraine

The destruction of the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, part of the Northern Fleet is detailed in this article: https://wapo.st/3HHvE1V

I had posted it, but I'll mention it again, President Zelensky had submitted a bill to dissolve a court known for corruption in 2021 but it never got passed by the Rada, a week ago or so the U.S placed the head of the court on a sanctions list for corruption, and just two days ago, the Rada promptly voted on the bill and dissolved the court. Both the EU and U.S have made it clear thru high level statements and the work of their representatives in Ukraine, that our assistance requires concrete steps by Ukraine to pass reforms targeting corruption, and the war has given Ukraine powerful incentives to act accordingly.

The units that took part in the counter offensive? didn't some of them go off the front for a few months? 2-4 months?