FancyCat

I recall the defense minister of Germany giving incoherent reasons for preventing the transfer of some armored cars to Ukraine some time ago that was rapidly rolled back on? Same reason that a Bradley might be close enough to a tank to put big pressure on Germany for Leopards, or maybe those Marders at least.

Let's not forget the same mindset that allowed Russia to invade Ukraine will make it unlikely for it to accept lapdog status to China. Also, Russian gas and oil exports, evidence has already emerged of it being resold by China and India for higher prices to Europe.

Someone on Twitter noted that people don't usually fall out of windows to their deaths and suggested it might be a "calling call" of Putin's security services. Just after being appointed to something, he fires off a unhinged and racist tweet on 2023 predictions. (Tweet was linked since it shows most of the stupidity) Ignore Elon, and I do think it's just "trolling" on part of Medvedev, since the first tweet references wild predictions and unrealistic events, but notable that a senior Russian government official is calling Ukrainians pigs, in English.

Where the explosion on Engels took place with supporting evidence provided in thread.

Speculation indeed, but considering the Russian excuses and limiting of gas in NS1, their statements on Europe freezing due to lack of Russian gas, and then once NS1 was gone, expressing that NS2 could be up and running to replace it. Assuming the translation is correct, Ukraine targeted pilots...nice job those are valuable personnel.

3 people killed but no damage to planes? Doubt.

Eh, I am actually of the opinion it is not totally essential to stop Russian exports to stop their foreign currency losses. Due to the nature of Russian exports have significant effect on worldwide pricing and costs, I'm more than fine with Russia stop exporting and ensuring the world's most vulnerable and poorest aren't too effected. In return the west should provide significant western equipment and aid but I digress. They were betting on Europe freezing and being forced to approve NS2. Didn't happen but feels like Russia was expecting Europe to fold soon enough this winter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File%3ANord_Stream_gas_flows.webp From wiki, graph link shows flows thru NS1 continued thru February, with lowered flows as Russia kept strangling it until the red X signifying the sabotage. NS1 wiki article will attest that Russia sought to avoid being blamed for stopping gas exports to Germany thru excuses and with a eye on defeating sanctions for example, the threats to keep gas exports low unless sanctions were lifted. When that didn't work, how nice NS1 goes belly up and NS2 retains one of two lines. The bridge exists, and remains, but the cost to reopen it on the part of Germany is so high now (NS2), it would have destroyed the EU front on Ukraine. The cost to keep NS1 gas flows open as indicated in the graph and by Russia's excuses, was high on Russia and low on Germany.

Please be advised, the pipelines from Russia thru Ukraine, and Russia thru Poland to the rest of Europe remain open and flowing, tho Russia cut off gas supply thru Poland but the pipeline is still good for flows to Germany if restarted. The pipeline thru Ukraine remains active. If Germany decided to reopen gas imports, it can do so via those routes. Be aware, Nordstream 2 Line B was not destroyed and Gazprom stated it would be able to flow gas thru in the aftermath of the sabotage. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/gazprom-ready-to-ship-gas-via-shelved-nord-stream-2-pipeline Nordstream 2, mid-approval process was shut down by Germany at the start of the invasion as punishment by Germany towards Russia, however Nordstream 1 gas contracts remained in force, with Germany expecting the gas to remain flowing in NS1. Gazprom shut down the flow via NS1 claiming maintenance issues and the sanctions prevented their resolution of the issues. When Germany refused to budge and insisted on continued gas flowing in NS1, lol and behold, NS1 blows up. But NS2 remains functional with one line. However, in contrast to NS1 which Germany can state that existing contracts must be fulfilled, NS2 requires the German government to finish approving the pipeline, thereby stopping Germany's own placed sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion. Had Germany felt pressured by the loss of gas via NS1 such that NS2 would be approved, it would basically divide the Western consensus on Ukraine and Russia and mark a success for Putin and Russia in reducing European sanctions and pressure on Russia. It makes perfect sense for Russia to destroy NS1 and half of NS2, one, they hoped to divide the West with the idea of Poland-Ukraine-UK-USA (the Anglo-Saxon alliance in opposition to continental Europe (GER/France), a common Russian talking point) destroying the pipeline to keep Europe and Germany freezing in Winter and stopping European independence, Two, by leaving only NS2 able to flow, Russia hoped that since Germany would obviously fight back against the "Anglo-Saxons" by asking for gas, incidentally, this gas must flow thru the shuttered NS2, meaning the clear end of German shift in policy against Russia, in contrast to the more muddled NS1 fulfillment of existing gas contracts.

Mind you, Russia has a long list of hostility to the U.S, NATO, which is U.S led, the EU, composed mostly of American aligned states, and agitates worldwide against U.S interests. Washington was alive when a voyage from Great Britain took a month to reach the colonies, there is little point in advising to “steer clear of foreign politics” when our world is more interconnected and integrated than ever before.

The latest bill with Ukraine stuff passed with bipartisan support so regardless of left or right detractors, for now things remain firmly aligned with Ukraine. Interesting, the variability of Ukraine's warnings. Maybe just a update on prior warnings, maybe muddled messaging. Tho we know Ukraine is capable of concise, consistent messaging over some manner of time. We shall see.

I was under the impression that the main reason stuff never gets fixed like economy or infrastructure is there isn't one agreed upon way to fix it and there isn't a majority enough to decide upon one way of attempting to resolve it. Also it's really goddamn cheap all things considered. Consider if Russia had successfully annexed Ukraine? Not only would a emboldened Russia sit on NATO's eastern flank, China would undoubtedly be more confident of pressing against Taiwan. A U.S forced again to defend Europe and Asia is way more expensive than a scenario where Poland and Ukraine in the future could handle a Russian resurgence or flare up while the U.S focuses on Asia.

Drone picks up damaged drone to ferry back to base.

God Willing, one can make a trip to Mariupol with the Ukrainian flag rising over it in a few years.

Old footage from Syria sadly.

In the words of the analyst, #2 tweet, I detected a hint of Putin deliberately sort of standing away from the MoD, "Putin tells Shoygu he will have no funding restrictions and “the country and the government are providing everything that the army asks for” but for the ‘special military operation’ but there’s a catch: Shoygu has to fix the problems, to include mobilization." Maybe analyst spin, I don't read Russian, I would not be surprised if Putin is prepared to cast blame on the MoD if the SMO goes bad.

from some lady tweeting from RAND, by way of /r/credibledefense, of the changes spoken about in MoD-Putin conference. Interesting premise, Russia might not reform the way at least most in the West would consider "correct".

Rogozhin aside from being a loud idiot at Roscosmos was also Ambassador to NATO from 2008 to 2011.....

loud.

Doubtful. Mind you Patriots are a big deal, it's not something given willy nilly to anyone with cash. Turkey being one of the commonly noted as missing Patriots. That Ukraine gets it is very much a commitment from the U.S to Ukraine now and in the future and is probably expected to be the same commitment from Ukraine to the U.S. While yes you could in the future cut off ammo shipments, that kind of action looks very bad for foreign relations and would require significant Ukrainian actions that are opposed to the interests of the U.S and just looks real plain bad to everyone. And these aren't U.S operated, once in Ukrainian hands, it's theirs to point and target and shoot. Patriots are undoubtedly essential for Ukraine to gain what is needed to facilitate the control of the skies or as close as control as possible.

Patriots have not been formally announced so I expect that to be it. Very smart move, a visit to the front lines and then a trip to the biggest sponsor of Ukraine. Good way PR wise.

Recalled at the beginning of the war, looking at flight trackers as Ukraine got devoid of overhead aircraft and these 2x Turkish aircraft getting stuck in Kiyv, pondering whether they held emergency equipment for Ukraine's defense, and expecting them to fall into Russian hands or be destroyed. Glad to see neither happened. Surprised it took so long for Turkey to negotiate their departure. Guess the leverage was not sufficient till now.