FancyCat

As noted previously by Ukrainian posters,

Did I post this yet? If yes, oh well. There were reports of heavy strikes on the corridor between the Donbas and Crimea, and isn't the weather improving the next few days that maybe offensive operations are possible? Fire more missiles, make it clear there is no Christmas peace, just like Russia fired missiles to celebrate the new year.

thread on how Bulgaria got off Russian gas.

Part of a thread that is pretty broad overview of the benefits of the Marder, Bradley, and AMX and well known probably to all here, but basically these will make kharkiv offensives more likely in the future.

Who reads French?

I will preempt the Germany bashing accusations by stating, these moves to give equipment are done in coalition lockstep largely, so as long as Scholz pledges the Marders within a month to Ukraine, no bashing will occur. But definitively optics matter, sure we can debate if that is a IFV or APC or tank or what not, but I think the average person when looking at the below image, will conclude France is giving more than Germany. Marders may not cut it.

Official confirmation,

Matches the Bradley rumors. If you recall the artillery, and everything else, NATO and co usually all collectively give the same equipment at the same time. Meaning Marders just got a big boost for being given.

We should not forget mobilization resulted in hundreds of thousands of skilled, educated Russians fleeing the country, undoubtedly a pressure valve release that helps Russia contain societal instability, at a expense of output and etc but still a pressure release valve. ‘

The officer who shoved them into that building filled with ammo and a vehicle depot gets off scot free then...

Article from where the tweet refers to: https://nepszava.hu/3180687_oregsegi-nyugdijkorhatar-mszp-tallai Google translate seemingly backs it up.

I believe you had just stated that Ukraine has the opportunity to once again divide Russian forces via defending Crimea and defending Donbas and doing a Kharkiv and Kherson offensive again (sorta)? If not, the point of whoever made it still stands, any Russian deployment to Crimea or Donbas leaves it unable to be reallocated easily in the event of UKR offensive on either front. That would probably require the same sort of posturing by Ukraine, making it so that whenever the offensive takes place, it must be seen as the secondary threat from a incoming offensive. Meaning, Ukraine may well opt (or appear to opt) to invade Crimea, also if Ukraine can manage to end the bridge again, even temporarily for a period of time, I could definitely see a concerted campaign to pile units to defend Crimea, then drop the bridge, and take advantage of Russia being unable to deploy units to launch a offensive in the Donbas, or vice versa, units in the Donbas can rely on a more viable and varied supply routes vs Crimea (with only the bridge), pile units into the Donbas, drop the bridge, invade Crimea. Either way, Ukraine will certainly keep Russia guessing. And the worldwide public by extension.

I feel like Ukraine did not attempt to severely cut off Russian forces in Kherson from retreating. Not a lot of vehicles captured in Kherson. Was very orderly, the retreat. I wonder if consideration for the civilian population and the idea of it being better for the Russians to retreat rather than be forced into being cut off and making a last stand was a factor. Assuming it’s all true and the photos really are of the hockey arena that was hit, chalk a 0 for Russia hitting a ammo dump.

On that note, are there any deeper analysis of how hard it would be to take Crimea? I remain unconvinced that Crimea isn’t militarily infeasible for invasion, I mean historically, it’s been common for Crimea to fall.

Sink sure except that would unduly harm the civilian population of Crimea, being blockaded and turned into a sink and drain on Russia. End of the day, the destruction of the Russian military is to facilitate the liberation of Crimea and Donbas, and I have no doubt Ukraine is worried about Putin and/or Western reluctance at harming Russia in the long run for it to stay a true sink of Russian resources. not surprising but still, some organizers of pro-Russian rallies in Germany are linked to the Russian government.

A 3rd tweet in the thread states two more departments, sports complex and several dormitories were severely damaged. Assuming this info is correct, on the face of it, it was actually directly targeted, depending on where and how the location of these facilities is arranged and what is around it, but it is a timely and unfortunate reminder that Russia's missile campaign is targeted on civilian infrastructure and people.

The link below describes why the U.S disagrees with the exclusion of mercenaries from IHL. https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule108?country=us Notably, IHL defines mercenary such that none of Wagner's personnel who are citizens or residents of Russia meet the definition of a mercenary. note the definition of mercenary here: https://casebook.icrc.org/glossary/mercenaries See here that the ICRC states that mercenaries are entitled to IHL protection same as belligerent combatants. https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2022/10/06/third-country-nationals-international-armed-conflict What was the violation of IHL? Hitting a Wagner hospital with HIMARS? Regardless of mercenaries or not, that is a violation. Tho, this protection stops once the hospital is used for: "unless they are used to commit, outside their humanitarian duties, acts harmful to the enemy”. Examples of such acts include “the use of a hospital as a shelter for able-bodied combatants or fugitives, as an arms or ammunition store, as a military observation post, or as a centre for liaison with fighting troops”. These transgressions can lead to the withdrawal of protection." From: http://international-review.icrc.org/articles/breaking-the-silence-advocacy-and-accountability-for-attacks-on-hospitals-in-armed-conflict-915

Zelensky's NYE speech. Subtitles in video.

As one proponent of western tanks to Ukraine, I'm not wedded to the idea that a M1 or Leopard must be sent, I am wedded to the idea that the West must continue escalation of aid to Ukraine, what form it takes does not matter as long as Ukraine benefits from it. Bradley and Marders IFVs, fantastic. ATACMS, fantastic. More artillery? Good. Does not matter what is sent, only illustrating to Putin that Western resolve is firm and ironclad and that he should pursue peace and withdrawal now than risk complete collapse later. Clearly Russia does not believe in western resolve, nor in Ukraine's ability to hold, Western tanks are a symbol therefore of the West's commitment to Ukraine that it will do what it takes to ensure Ukrainian victory. The west is boiling the frog, presumably to prevent Russian panic and escalation. Meanwhile Ukraine suffers, and a slowly boiling frog believes all is well, it must merely wait and the heat will die down. Yet more Ukrainians (and Russians) die. If another mobilization is begun as predicted by Ukraine, it only indicates Russia is doubling down in the belief that victory or at least short term stalemate is possible and Russia will prevail. Bradleys and Marders would be a good response. I think boiling the frog, basically giving Putin escalation dominance is a good strategy, but that must be coupled with Western willingness to escalate. Luckily Bradleys and Patriot systems are a well worthwhile escalation.

Propaganda or smoke of fire? Either way, if true, no sign of backing down from Russia.

No damage visible after the latest attacks on Engel. Reduced aircraft activity tho. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-no-damage-seen-at-russian-bomber-base-after-drone-attacks

Thread with notables chiming in on Bradley potential, including General Hertling, and Jack Watling from RUSI. Quite positive. So is the majority of Ukraine's IFV force composed of BMP-1s and not more modernized stuff?