FancyCat

FT article, on Germany. Nothing really new, except to underscore that Germany’s ruling coalition government is divided, so Baerbock’s statement does not necessarily mean change. We gotta wait for Scholz. https://www.ft.com/content/91a9013e-56cf-4068-bb82-ead0cace069a

Isn't NATO focus always been airpower? What artillery do you suppose is left to give? Not withstanding ammo either. Might be time to at least begin the process for western airframes if the answers aren't favorable for artillery. Note, if we recall the escalation ladder the west has been taking, tanks need to come before airframes and obviously we are referring to western made stuff. We can't skip the step of tanks. (I mean we should but I doubt that will happen, if we truly are doing a boil the frog while giving time to consider stepping out the pot)(meaning this Leopard fight will continue till the decision is made to supply it)(which I mean does mesh with being slow to keep Russia from being alarmed)

I'm regards to the article alleging that German reluctance to concede the tank market in Europe to the U.S is a major concern for not giving Leopards to Ukraine, As shown by Defense Minister Lambrecht ordering the Bundeswehr not to look into the Leopards status, political reluctance to support heavy weapons to Ukraine translates into lack of preparedness and steps to support Ukraine which is causing blowback in general for Germany internationally and I suppose soon domestically. It's been a year, had Scholz and co had even a tidbit of foresight, guidance and just simple leadership, they could have prepped the German military industrial complex to more strongly be able to assist Ukraine, assist efforts to backfill European contributions to Ukraine.

There is a lot more Abrams in the world, American logistics are great so getting them to Ukraine probably won't be a severe issue, but as Hertling points out, part of a longer thread, he describes a scenario where logistically it seems quite demanding on Ukraine to manage. So yes, while maybe there's less Leopard IIs in the wild, if the M1s are having more issues forcing them to be placed out of action more, than effectively numbers aren't going to matter.

The SZ article says Austin got heated with the German Chief of Staff. The GLSDB is also mentioned as being supplied to Ukraine (not everything is announced publicly remember) and the U.S is irritated with Germany cause it supplies heavy equipment and armaments on a unmatched scale and Germany is not matching it. Article says there are no longer tank depots in Europe to support Abrams? What do you suppose that means?

The problems described in the article referred by the tweets, had Russia not been a paper tiger, they honestly probably could have gotten to Berlin if we hand waved Poland and the Baltics and the U.S forces stationed there. Report is quite scathing.

The Greens are coalition partners and therefore freer to swipe at Scholz than were they in the position of Chancellor but from everything I've heard of, Habeck and Baerbock, even when defending Scholz's policies have been able to do so in a manner less likely to make mistakes than Scholz, which is the worst part about this, Germany has absolutely done its job with supporting Ukraine, but Scholz has catastrophically mismanaged the PR image. If you think I refer to Germany rather than Scholz, not really, its just Scholz.

Ambassadors are important, but i dunno if we can take the word of the Ambassador just yet...

true, but Germany has been long been marked out as the weakest NATO country for pressuring to give armaments. Defensive weapons aren't going to cut it. The Marders would have been a great way for Germany to try and turn the page. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-ukraine-tank-military-support-conundrum/ From the article linked in May, regarding the PzH 2000s, it illustrates just a very long series of actions characterized by visible slowness, restraint.

Again, it isn't like Germany is being surprised (hopefully) but as can be seen in past deliveries of aid, it seems pretty coordinated throughout NATO. Take a page out of Macron's book. Be first to deliver something to Ukraine. Even if first is by a couple of days, it matters. There hasn't been a issue negatively about any country upstaging another with announcements. In lagging behind, in projecting a image of only acting in full unity with the U.S (not even NATO at this point), it has rightly opened itself to criticism. If the German government wishes to project the image of restraint and cautiousness for domestic consumption, it walks into it knowing fully how it can be seen (distorted) internationally. The Dingo was just embarrassing. In the span of one week, the German government had to reverse it's stance. You don't hear anyone complaining about France not giving MBTs, cause France can rightly point to the AMX and the Caesar earlier announcement. U.S? No Abrams for Ukraine? HIMARS. Marders would have been a great one to go first on.

Recall the furor over the Marders, Dingos, etc, the thread just leaves out the context of the latest Rammstein conference. The inability of Scholz and his government to articulate German aid and unity with Ukraine is their own damn fault.

"Now, I've said it before, I'm not too annoyed with states taking Russian gas, but it's was particularly annoying having Germany urge no heavy equipment for Ukraine while paying money for Russian gas insisting on "fulfillment of contracts". if training is being given, then pretty given that tanks are incoming. maybe a attempt at pretending pressure did not cause the decision to be made.

And sure if the objective was to hedge for time to fill up gas storage and trick Russia to keep sending gas in return for less heavy equipment to Ukraine, the pipeline blew up in September so continued German delays on heavy equipment in 2023 signifies it wasn't that reason either.

Not really. Germany sought to get as much gas as possible from Russia before winter, then had to stop once Nord Stream 1 blew up, which I still believe happened as a round about way of Russia cutting off Germany's supply without violating contracts. Throughout the time before NS1 blew up, Germany was insisting on Russia fulfilling it's gas contracts with Russia giving excuses for why it couldn't. Now, I've said it before, I'm not too annoyed with states taking Russian gas, but it's was particularly annoying having Germany urge no heavy equipment for Ukraine while paying money for Russian gas insisting on "fulfillment of contracts".

More referring to the difficulty of maintaining Abrams and the fact a lot of maintenance is done by foreign contractors, the use of any western personnel in Ukraine probably will not happen, and Ukraine is already burdened with a wide variety of equipment to maintain.

Decent points, aren’t there still tons of contractors in Iraq that help the Iraqi military? And while yes, contractors are different, I’m unsure what the public response would be towards a repair depot being struck by Russian missiles containing American citizens doing maintenance on Abrams. huh, while looking into Iraq and how it deals with logistics, apparently the U.S suspended contractors for repairing the tanks after several fell into Iranian militants hands and Iraq failed to get them back. This was in 2018, I can’t find info stating whether this repair center ever came back into service, or how Iraq deals with their inventory of tanks now, whether it can keep them in service or not. Something to keep in mind, Iraq started purchasing tanks from Russia again and continues to do so. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/u-s-made-tanks-that-fell-into-militia-hands-in-iraq-sparks-assistance-standoff/

Not just Scholz. The Dingo, a MRAP, was embarrassing for Germany. Interestingly, Lambrecht had also in the article referenced in the tweet below, touted a desire for further European cooperation in defense projects. Quoted below, interesting considering present day.

Ring a round a Rosie. Probably why now the message is that actually Germany is kindly speaking for the majority of NATO in not being in favor of tanks at this time.