Maquisard manqué

Maybe this is should be called "supressive fire" %) The work of UKR BTR machinegunner
 

I will leave these tweets here and note it is in Russia's interest to lay full claim to the Russian language and ethnicity.
Here is a article where Russians in Latvia are shifting to support Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-62527789
 
 

Ok...STOP.
  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:
- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.
- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.
- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than that we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.
- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 
You wanna talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Going to be really interesting to see more of these kinds of videos. I keep talking about competing snowdomes- this is what I think it should look like:

The Russian Air Defence layer starts getting holes blasted in it by HARMs (or is redeployed to save the bridges/ uses it's ammo up trying to hit HIMARs rockets or ground targets/ or is logistically neutered/ etc).

This allows Ukrainian airpower/dronepower to penetrate the AD layer and start poking holes in the artillery layer...

... which means that Russian ground units start to lose the protection of their artillery (no support) and become more exposed to Ukrainian artillery (reduced counterbattery capability)...

... which means they become increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian ground forces.

Nothing revolutionary, but like Huba says, we haven't seen drone videos like that since Phase 1, and we all know how that ended. A pretty solid indicator that the Russians on the west bank are getting closer to collapse... providing Ukraine can keep the pressure up.

UK government cut UK armed forces to the bones. Look at what British Commandos had to use for landing at the station!


And it is not even motorized barge.

 
Fun fact - it seems RU are so stingy and lazy that they did not even bother to bring a tug. Absence of tug make a nice plot hole - it means RU army aviation is total crap that cannot catch running away UKR river tug.
[UPDATE] The plot is so thick now that I think it is thickest plot ever - UKR wanted to take IAEA hostages to prevent RU army from recapturing station.
But it also means that because it was Boris Johnson plan - Boris Johnson wanted to take IAEA hostages! 
Anyone got a phone number of UK tabloids? I have a story to sell. 100% legit!

The level of RU Nat madness is well... see it yourself:
How about that, Elon Musk?!

Sober reminder that offensive actions are not without costs.
This WSJ reporter interviews wounded Ukrainian soldiers and their doctors in the South:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-soldiers-say-they-are-advancing-in-the-south-but-at-a-cost-11661983338

Sorry I see you beat me to it.

I'm disappointed by this.
 
Amusing as it is, OFFER THEM SURRENDER!
There's an entire division knowing they're cut off from supplies, cut off from retreat. Give them another option! Don't make them feel they have to fight for raw survival.

Video from Kherson front
UKR troops are prepared to attack. The tank is trying execute "hull down" command %) 
 

Looks like we got something. It looks like UKR fresh reserves we talked about yesterday entered the battle today. They punched through RU defenses behind Sukhi Stavok and reached Bruskinse. And Bruskinse  sits on the main supply route for Davydi Brid.

 

I also wondered about these questions. On the one hand, he may be useful for exposing Russian crimes, but on the other, admitting his faults does not make him less of a criminal. Perhaps he will be sheltered during the conflict and then be judged when the war is over for the crimes he may have caused (just like all those little comrades who consider themselves safe from everything judgement).

L119 howitzer commander of air-assault troops, participating in offensive
And his imaginations:
An offensive theese are shellings, losses and shock. In order not to show you completely burned Humvee. in which ammunitin had been detonated, killing and injuring my congeners, here is a photo of my trench, where I hide from such destiny

"The Russian supplier Gazprom will “completely” suspend its gas deliveries to the Engie group (French gas distributor) from Thursday"
The Russian giant Gazprom announced on Tuesday on Telegram that it would completely suspend its gas deliveries to the French group Engie from Thursday, “until the receipt in full of the financial sums due for the deliveries”.


"After denouncing the offensive in Ukraine, a Russian soldier requests asylum in France
He broke the law of silence and fled Russia: Pavel Filatiev, a soldier who fought for two months in Ukraine before denouncing the Kremlin offensive in a long story published on the Internet, requests political asylum in France . The 34-year-old soldier arrived in Roissy on Sunday via Tunisia and met with agents from the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra) on Monday.
The reason ? At the beginning of August, the paratrooper, who last year re-enlisted in the 56th regiment of airborne troops based in Crimea after leaving the ranks of the army for some time, published on the social network VKontakte an account of 141 pages denouncing the state of Russian troops and the war in Ukraine.
"When I learned that the command was asking for me to be sentenced to fifteen years in prison for false information [against the Russian army], I understood that I would not achieve anything here and that my lawyers could do nothing for me in Russia, ”says Pavel Filatiev to Agence France-Presse (AFP), who met him in the waiting area for asylum seekers in Roissy on Monday.
His text, entitled “ZOV” – which means “call” in Russian and at the same time recalls the letters painted on Russian armored vehicles in Ukraine – criticizes the offensive launched on February 24.
"We did not have the moral right to attack another country, which is more the people who are closest to us", writes in this account the soldier, himself the son of a soldier who had served in the 56th regiment.
If he obtains refugee status, he says he wants to act "to make sure that this war ends". "I want as few young Russian men as possible to go there and get mixed up in this, to know what's going on there.""
"The Russian soldier who requests political asylum in France is authorized to enter French territory"
Pavel Filatiev, a soldier who fought for two months in Ukraine before denouncing the Kremlin offensive in a long account published on the Internet, is requesting political asylum in France. The 34-year-old soldier arrived in Roissy via Tunisia on Sunday and met with agents from the French Office for the Protection of Refugees and Stateless Persons (Ofpra) on Monday.
"Pavel Filatiev was released [Tuesday] at the end of the afternoon" and authorized to enter French territory, his lawyer, Kamalia Mehtiyeva, told Agence France-Presse, specifying that he had eight days to submit their asylum application. "We are delighted with this decision and will submit the request for political asylum in the following days," she added.

"Twenty-four years in prison required against a journalist specializing in the army"
The Russian prosecutor's office on Tuesday demanded twenty-four years' imprisonment against journalist Ivan Safronov, a specialist in military matters, accused of high treason and imprisoned since 2020.
His trial takes place as the Kremlin multiplies calls to support the armed forces fighting in Ukraine. In recent months, hundreds of Russians have been prosecuted for criticizing the offensive and accused of "discrediting" the troops.
A recognized expert in defense issues, Mr. Safronov, 32, was arrested in July 2020, in the context of growing repression of the independent press, which has further accelerated since the attack on Ukraine by Russia. The requisitions, announced on Tuesday, are nevertheless particularly severe, even for this kind of trial.
"The representative of the public prosecutor's office asked to find Safronov guilty of high treason and to impose a twenty-four-year sentence on him in a penal colony under a harsh regime," the Moscow City Court was quoted by the agency as saying. press releases.
Since April, Ivan Safronov has been tried behind closed doors because it is a trial for espionage and treason. The verdict is expected on September 5. According to the court, the statement of the judgment will be open to the press.


Source : Le Monde

So, after yesterday flood of news from Kherson offensive today we have full quiet, likely after yesterday statement of General Staff and President's Administration - "To all. Shut up. Please"
I collected some videos:
More interesting is this - soldier tells about yestersay assault:
Translation:
...Well, friends, we made an assault. I lay in blidage now. The assault was in "Rzhev offensive operation style". Well, I will not say about this like that... But... In short - we have been moved with tanks across the field in battle lines, amicably attacked their positions... I was a little shell-shocked - some f...g s..t flew down, dropped from the drone. Although from beginning of attack we were in the middle of field and about half of hour passed - through this half of hour they already had a drone, loaded with ammunition. It dropped three or four charges. The first impacted in three meters from me, the second in about five meters - miraculously it didn't hurt, but shell-shocked. Fighters were fu...g amazed that I intact. Then a tank shelled us, artyllery, mortar shells... Well, this was tough... But our guys also kicked their ass good. This is bad, we hadn't good liason [either EW interference, or poorly organized interaction between units, I think]. Because of that wasn't proper coordination. This is, at whole, a single crucial problem. And the second problem - we had to assault enemy positions, moving through mined field, like in "Shtrafbat" movie [popular 10 years ago Russian series "Shtrafbat  - eng."Penal battalion", where soldiers were deliberately sent in attack on minefield]. But never mind... We need to liberate Ukraine in different ways. All will be good, we will win. Glory to Ukraine!

Whose grass mod are you using?

RUMINT
UKR forces are conducting combat actions on 12 sections of Kherson frontline, on 4 we have advance. Involved all, what we have.

No, that is not right. Germany's deal with Russian gas started in 1958 when Germany started to deliver gas pipes to the Soviet Union.  The first gas came in 1975. The decision to close the nuclear plants came in 2011.
The big mistake of Merkels government was not to do anything about it after 2011.
The anti-nuclear movement in Germany was started by conservative citizens and was only later joined by pro-peace and environmental groups. But don't think those were some fringe groups - the movement had and has broad support in many different parts of the population.
Greenpeace had historically nothing to do with this, although it probably shared many of its goals and supporters.
Germany's reliance on Russian gas is a mixture of opportunity, greed & ignorance. Very simple. No need to drum up conspiracy theories.

Let's discuss RU infantry and mech forces issue in the current war. Actually, it is not one but two related yet distinct issues.
1. RU lack of infantry
RU army does not and cannot have good infantry force. it hurts them a lot. They literally unable to assault UKR strongholds in timely manner and have to wait till artillery (or TOS) demolish everything. So, RU would benefit a lot from having a good solid infantry force. However, it would not help much with armor issue.
2.  RU armor cannot operate near the frontline
Having enough infantry would not allow RU armor to operate near the frontline. You cannot advance quickly due to ATGMs. You cannot fight ATGMs from cover because drone adjusted arty. The infantry itself does not help with either ATGMs or with Arty. So, this issue is different from RU lack of infantry and requires a different solution.
3. What could help
As I said, danger zone around front line affects ATGMs as well. Even two-man Javelin team is not safe. It is better than RU ATGMs teams but it is still dangerous for them to be there.
But what if the danger zone is not explicitly linked to the frontline? Can we wrap it around our tank? Well, actually yes. 
Drones create danger zones.  So, you can easily do something like this. 

Drones with thermals can significantly complicate life of any ATGM.
You might ask why RU do not do it like this now? Answer is - they want, but they do not have drones for infantry and artillery which is their priority now. As soon as they get enough drones for arty they will start equipping tanks units with drones. I read RU Nats post that top brass already approved general ideal of equipping every AFV with personal drone.
But how we deal with 4 km ATGMs? Well, you add some more drones with recon units

 
And finally, beforehand you infiltrate special force teams with even more drones! You use them to observe convenient spots for ATGMs

Let's summarize - to enable mech maneuver we must protect the mech force with drone bubble that can detect ATGMs teams before they can engage mech force. 

Machiavelli is very much nation building. Most of the book is about how to get a conquered nation/province to like and accept the new ruler and to be part of his nation.
Since you are into SF - have you read John Scalzis "Old Mens War"? A story about infantry in the far future.
There, some soldiers brains hard-wired together. Training consists of blindfolding a soldier and having him run parkour only with the view through his teammates eyes. Thats integrated.

For one thing, one of the main purposes of Infantry in a Combined Arms Attack is to clear and protect the flanks of the armor advance. These are not the days of the WWII Blitzkrieg armored spearpoint when the only infantry AT weapon was the anti-tank rifle. One opponent of mine in the CMx1 scenario “The Library” was stunned when I sent my Axis Infantry through the buildings on either side of the route of my Armor advance. Of course, that was where he had sited his AT Teams and my infantry wiped them out. Combined Arms Operation means everyone supporting each other.
When it comes right down to it, Armor, Artillery, and Air exist for one and only one purpose, to support the mission of the Infantry! 

Likely SOF or recons, or maybe ATGM-team on the buggy with mounted Milan ATGM

Buggy is enough popular in our troops, though have own specific and pick-ups by the way are more universal. But some units order them. There are several "garage-factories" produce buggies in small series, but one of them proven own success.
Self-employed metalworks specialist Volodymyr Sadyk from Chernivtsi oblast, which has also a hobby of buggy designing for his kids. Whith start of the war has launched manufacturing of several buggy types under own trademark VOLS. Volunteer fund of Serhiy Prytula has been ordering theese buggy for troops and VOLS vehicles got very good feedback. Cheapest model cost about 5000$. Already dozens of VOLS in service.
On the photo Sadyk (right), his doughter Melisa - his "marketing department" and Serhiy Prytula (the guy, who raised 600 millions and bought the SAR satellite) on background of his cars

Early VOLS model with light Korsar ATGM

Later VOLS

 

From the perspective of someone who develops technology (I do aerospace, but not splody things, though I've been around some directed energy stuff), what you're trying to do is increase the amount of energy you deposit on the target, and ideally only the target of interest.  From 50,000 ft, there are two ways to do it - you can increase the energy density at the source or you can increase the energy density at the target.  Most of the history of weapons and splody things is increasing the energy at the source, with modest work on the energy at the target.  Bow and arrow to black powder to TNT to modern propellants propelling a pointy thing (kinetic energy only) or shell of black powder to TNT to tritonal, and increasing the amount of energy sent downrange by increasing rates of fire and masses of fire (lots of tubes, whether it's shoulder to shoulder lines of the Napoleonic era or bunches of 152 mm tubes today).
There appears to have been a major shift in western development that is all about precision of depositing that energy downrange.  There are a lot of reasons behind it, and it's been used and improved for decades, at least since GW1, but now we're seeing it in a peer conflict with Ukraine on the precision side and Russia on the mass side.  Some time ago, I worked on a space thing to do high precision astrometry - measuring positions of the stars to an unbelievable precision.  The US Navy was working on a similar mission at the same time, with a only a little lower precision - they and the USAF still do navigation by the stars (even if there might sometimes be a few layers of things in between).  I worked out what the precision mapped to on the surface of the earth: a few cm.  They didn't want to target a building, or even the door of a bunker like we saw on videos in GW1.  They wanted to be able to hit the doorknob.  If you can reliably hit a doorknob 1000 km away with a modest amount of high quality HE, you don't need to get 10x the energy density into the warhead.
That precision brings a lot of advantages. It makes your logistics a lot easier if you don't need to bring tons and tons of HE shells up to within 20 km of the front every day.  Way fewer trucks and truck drivers at risk, and less manufacturing committed to keeping that supply of trucks.  And so on..  And it reduces your risk of having the current Russian problem of those tons and tons of HE falling victim to stray butts because big tobacco has infiltrated your country. And it reduces collatoral damage - you don't have to bomb Belgorod flat and get RU civilians all worked up, you can blow up the ammunition dumps and the oil storage facilities without any stray shells (aside from what flies out of the ammo dump) going into civilian areas.  Increasing the energy of the splody part by making 10x more powerful HE runs you into the problem of having big ammo dumps full of stuff that you really don't want to be around when someone drops a butt in the wrong place.
And to get that precision you need a lot of resources - it's not just making a missile with a 5 cm CEP.  You need all the ISR to precisely find targets, the sensors for moving targets, the communication systems to convey that information to the control room or missile, etc.
You still need some mass, or at least ROF+retargeting speed.  Kind of like late in a game of Asteroids when there are a zillion asteroids coming at your one ship - if you can't fire and retarget fast enough, all the precision in the world won't help.  

I can only hope the recent campaign of HIMARs/SOF/Workplace Safety Violations is contributing to this whole thing because no way does this go down in history as a Russian security "win".
Beyond the fact that there may be a afterschool childcare crisis in Ukrainian SOE right now I am not sure what the downside for Ukraine is at this point.
EDIT:  Counter narrative - it was Ukrainian "Take your Kids to Work Day"

Lesson #1 from the modern era is "forget everything you think you know" (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/336975512_Nanotechnology-Driven_Explosives_and_Propellants)
Lesson #2 is "never forget what you knew"
Lesson #3 is don't think too hard about the relationship between lessons #1 & #2, it is just how it is.