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holoween

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  1. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which is btw why i dint quote a manual but linked a video showing it done in ukraine.
    The typical sequence ive seen is Arty from approach til the end of the fight, ATGMs joining in in the main fight and FPV drones largely finishing off abandoned vehicles or harassing outside of the main fight.
    Which is why the tank in the video ive linked wasnt able to deal with the troops in the trench... except wiping them out.
    Without setting conditions every attack is suicide.
    I only play against human oponents.
    And you have to expose yourself eventually as the attacker. The trick is to do it in a way that maximises the combat power difference between you and your oponent at the point of contact.
  2. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Which is btw why i dint quote a manual but linked a video showing it done in ukraine.
    The typical sequence ive seen is Arty from approach til the end of the fight, ATGMs joining in in the main fight and FPV drones largely finishing off abandoned vehicles or harassing outside of the main fight.
    Which is why the tank in the video ive linked wasnt able to deal with the troops in the trench... except wiping them out.
    Without setting conditions every attack is suicide.
    I only play against human oponents.
    And you have to expose yourself eventually as the attacker. The trick is to do it in a way that maximises the combat power difference between you and your oponent at the point of contact.
  3. Like
    holoween got a reaction from billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes as experience tells us killing civillians breaks their morale and leads to regime change... oh wait no it does the exact opposite.
  4. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes as experience tells us killing civillians breaks their morale and leads to regime change... oh wait no it does the exact opposite.
  5. Like
    holoween got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes as experience tells us killing civillians breaks their morale and leads to regime change... oh wait no it does the exact opposite.
  6. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes as experience tells us killing civillians breaks their morale and leads to regime change... oh wait no it does the exact opposite.
  7. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok so please dont post things you clearly have no idea about.
    This is an a4 which weighs around 55t basically still the initial design weight. Yet the 10t heavier a6 and a7v dont have issues related to the weight. Im not sure what exactly youre trying to say about its center of mass but ive yet to hear anyone having any issues ralated to it but please clarify what you mean. Insufficient engine power also seems entirely unfounded given its got a better power to weight ratio than any soviet legacy tanks. The photo also was of a training accident in poland where two tanks straight up collided which is simply a crew error.
    Now to get to what is most likely actually happening
    When the tank drives past pay attention to the gun just in front of the smoke extractor. You can see the barrel is clamped down so this is certainly nowhere near the frontline. For long road marches and driving without turret crew the turret is locked to the rear and the gun clamped down. This also lets the driver drive turned out.
  8. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok so please dont post things you clearly have no idea about.
    This is an a4 which weighs around 55t basically still the initial design weight. Yet the 10t heavier a6 and a7v dont have issues related to the weight. Im not sure what exactly youre trying to say about its center of mass but ive yet to hear anyone having any issues ralated to it but please clarify what you mean. Insufficient engine power also seems entirely unfounded given its got a better power to weight ratio than any soviet legacy tanks. The photo also was of a training accident in poland where two tanks straight up collided which is simply a crew error.
    Now to get to what is most likely actually happening
    When the tank drives past pay attention to the gun just in front of the smoke extractor. You can see the barrel is clamped down so this is certainly nowhere near the frontline. For long road marches and driving without turret crew the turret is locked to the rear and the gun clamped down. This also lets the driver drive turned out.
  9. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    SHORAD is no longer optional because airpower cant keep low airspace clean. And giving those a C-RAM capability is trivial in the sense that all newly developed ones can already do it.
    yea but thats quite a bit less growth potential than you can expect from an aps.
     
    See now you make me question how up to date you actually are on certain tech. APS are with the exception of Israel only deployed in homeopathic ammounts. The tanks deployed in Ukraine are all at least 2 generations behind the anti tank weapons deployed. Which is why the tank died when 1920s tanks got destroyed in the 10s of thousands at the start of ww2 and again when ATGMs got introduced... oh wait they didnt.
    Integrated platoon APS arent a thing yet though id be surprised if it isnt being worked on. Alwso youve got it backwards. A platoon of tanks firing APS has alredy drawn the heat.
    As said at the start of the post SHORAD is no loonger optional. Also hoe do the russsians and ukrainians manage to keep themselves supplied since its aparently impossible?
    Yes tanks sit back with the arty which is why we see them shooting at other tanks sitting on the other side of a hedge 50m away... oh wait no they are sitting at the frontline.
    No thats in active development but as a target profile its simply more infantry that cant take cover properly. It also doesnt speed up infantry and i really wouldnt want to be the infantry having to walk through 20km of arty covered terrain to get to the frontline.
     
    Your approach to creating military capability is to throw everything out and start from scratch. Mine is to see where the failiure points are and if they can be fixed or need a different approach.
    And Infantry from my view is far less replacable than any combat vehicle. There is a har cap on how many are available and tapping into the manpower pool directly reduces the productive capabilities of the nation theyre part of.
  10. Like
    holoween reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Game over? A little bit of over-assured circular logic there. 
    The modern MBT is the current iteration of whatever it is that needs to be fast, hard to kill and dangerous at long ranges. Current war is proving they're very vulnerable to UAS,  but is that a failure of tactics and thought,  or of the platform as a tactical concept. 
    The need for something with those traits won't go away.
    We can call it UGS or whatever but it's role will be Longe Range Heavy Accurate Direct Fire, itll need to take some hits (because it's front line unit) or else you're dancing on tactical eggshells to keep the ****er alive (hello,  AMX) and it'll need to be fast- fast to move,  fast to replace, fast to build. 
    Currently,  MBTs are NOT fast,  on those counts.  They're getting to the preciousness of Battleships for sure. 
    Really it's "MBT" that are facing erasure. 
    But a tank-type platform that is fast on those three levels? How is that not going to be useful? It'll just have a different acronym. 
    Also,  as Long as there are infantry,  there will be IFVs and APCs. Some kind of mobile armored and armed box to get them from ATO B and with organic supporting fires. 
  11. Like
    holoween reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I've seen this idea many times and I've never bought it, specifically the trope that the Navies though this or that. They didn't. Certain factions or leaders thought this or that but not having dominance over naval budget they were able get their particular ideas built but not change or maintain the service's ideology as a whole.
    Post PH, it's not like suddenly everyone at the top  was OMG - Carriers, Dude! Amiright?! If only we'd known! They had both already built bloody large carriers in large enough numbers to rapidly start dukeing it out with the opposing carriers. There was already a gigantic future financial commitment to carriers. People already knew what they could potentially do. 
    The Battleship boys were entrenched beaurocratically but out-maneouvered strategically. The top brass in both Navies were correct in viewing both arms as mutually dependent and supportive, amplifiers of each other's effects. It wasn't that the battleship would decide things,  but that without them you were vulnerable to a force that did have both carriers and battleships. 
    What was certainly a surprise to many in the IJN was just how overmatched Battleships were on their own. But was that because the idea of a battleship was "stupid"?  Or because they hadn't yet developed the idea of AAA Cruiser escorts? Because those US escorts sure kicked the guts out of many IJN air attacks while the USN flyboys eviscerated the jap carriers. Towards the end of the war US Battleships themselves had vastly improved onboard AA defences, as well as local squadron & Fleet coordination - while IJN stagnated and only incrementally improved. 
    This to me is where the echoes are with tanks today. It's not that tanks are doomed,  it's that in their current iteration and handling they are extremely vulnerable to an opposing force that has both tanks and drone swarms. If you both do then it gets down to a software/BioWare contest, coming up with the next idea that gives temporary advantage until countered. Oh look - war as its ever been. 
    Tanks need to change (both formatting,  size, power source and weapons) and they will properly warp into something new under the pressure of a true drone war.
    But there will always be a use for a fast moving ground platform that can send an insanely fast and heavy projectile downrange. 
    Possibly a primary need with Future Tank will be the ability to drastically and rapidly shift/change its production processes in response to evolving battlefield realities. The current behemoths take too long to design,  build and get into service -  just like ye battleships of yore. 
    Give me a lighter platform that can morph its form within a few months and still shove a 125mm shell up a Russian's arsehole from 3km away. 
     
     
  12. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    C-RAM, mobility to make targeting problematic. How do you want infantry to deal with it?
    1 An APS allows protection to keep pace with attacking munitions development because it doesnt require fully redeveloping and building hulls.
    2 ATGMs and RPGs are already close to the weight/size limit for infantry use. If they are pushed beyond that to be able to ko tanks youre changing the math dramatically. From 1 infantry squad theoretically able to destroy a companys worth of tanks to an infantry platoon able to ko maybe one or two.
    3 Youre always creative unless it comes to stuff you dont like. Its not hard to imagine a tank platoons APS data linked to combine their sensors and coordinate their response.
    Yes tanks need more logistics support than infantry but nowhere near as much as artillery. And tanks can simply drive back some kilometers to resupply out of range of most arty while infantrys supplies have to be brought to the frontline.
    Yea tell me how well has infantry been doing against ISR and Arty?
    And mech isnt going anywhere because infantry isnt going to carry all the equipment they need without vehicles.
  13. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    C-RAM, mobility to make targeting problematic. How do you want infantry to deal with it?
    1 An APS allows protection to keep pace with attacking munitions development because it doesnt require fully redeveloping and building hulls.
    2 ATGMs and RPGs are already close to the weight/size limit for infantry use. If they are pushed beyond that to be able to ko tanks youre changing the math dramatically. From 1 infantry squad theoretically able to destroy a companys worth of tanks to an infantry platoon able to ko maybe one or two.
    3 Youre always creative unless it comes to stuff you dont like. Its not hard to imagine a tank platoons APS data linked to combine their sensors and coordinate their response.
    Yes tanks need more logistics support than infantry but nowhere near as much as artillery. And tanks can simply drive back some kilometers to resupply out of range of most arty while infantrys supplies have to be brought to the frontline.
    Yea tell me how well has infantry been doing against ISR and Arty?
    And mech isnt going anywhere because infantry isnt going to carry all the equipment they need without vehicles.
  14. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    C-RAM, mobility to make targeting problematic. How do you want infantry to deal with it?
    1 An APS allows protection to keep pace with attacking munitions development because it doesnt require fully redeveloping and building hulls.
    2 ATGMs and RPGs are already close to the weight/size limit for infantry use. If they are pushed beyond that to be able to ko tanks youre changing the math dramatically. From 1 infantry squad theoretically able to destroy a companys worth of tanks to an infantry platoon able to ko maybe one or two.
    3 Youre always creative unless it comes to stuff you dont like. Its not hard to imagine a tank platoons APS data linked to combine their sensors and coordinate their response.
    Yes tanks need more logistics support than infantry but nowhere near as much as artillery. And tanks can simply drive back some kilometers to resupply out of range of most arty while infantrys supplies have to be brought to the frontline.
    Yea tell me how well has infantry been doing against ISR and Arty?
    And mech isnt going anywhere because infantry isnt going to carry all the equipment they need without vehicles.
  15. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Also poles like to conveniently ignore this when discussion contributions.

    But lets put this to rest. Polish military aid has been invaluable by being there early on and in quantity.
    But polish rethoric quite often doesnt square with their actions especially if there is a chance to screw over germany.
  16. Like
    holoween reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This...
    ... and this precisely.
    Nobody doubts what the Polish people have done for Ukraine. But other countries (incl. Germany) have also taken many, many refugees. And other countries (incl. Germany) have contributed equipment from their active units or equipment that was supposed to go to active units. And yes, Poland has contributed equipment that was supposed to be replaced, anyway. That's perfectly ok because other countries did that, too, or sent stuff that has been deprecated already (Leopard 1s).
    What other governments didn't do was try to squeeze out every little bit of profit there was to gain for their election campaigns. Other governments didn't claim the moral high ground the way the Polish government did. Others also didn't spread anti EU and anti Germany sentiments while gladly taking their money. He who lives by the sword, dies by the sword, as the saying goes. So, if the Polish government sings the song of solidarity with Ukraine, while bashing others, they had better make good on their words.
    Anyway, let's not escalate this too much. Scholz & Co deserved a lot of the criticism they received and we German forumites just had to deal with it. I think the Polish government had this coming a long way, so the Polish members here will have to just deal with it, too. I admit to enjoying some Schadenfreude but I'll enjoy it quietly.
  17. Like
    holoween reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Poland used this war to get rid of it's old military junk, get compensated for it by the EU and order new stuff for it's armed forces. As simple as that.
  18. Upvote
    holoween reacted to Grey_Fox in Tanks are blind in CM   
    It is completely broken. Just look at this they get within 50 meters of each other in broad daylight and be doesn't even see it. It's laughable that anybody would consider this to be realistic behaviour.
    Completely unplayable, I want a refund.
     
  19. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They dont need to actually mass in the sense of more troops per km of frontline.
    Take their current company attack occupying maybe 2km of frontline. now add another 2 on each flank. the overall attack now occupies 10 km.
    You now have reduced the enemys guns able to react to each individual attack significantly. Same goes for the own firesupport but massing your own guns in such an area is far faster than the enemys reaction.
    Couple the attack with strikes on the hqs and you also dramatically reduce the reaction times when it matters.
    Have reserve forces ready to push further oncr the first wave has taken the forward lines.
    You never have forces more densely packed than currently, can dilute the defenders support and potentially cause a catastrophic failure of the defense.
    Maybe ukraine is already doing this and were just not hearing it or they arent for some reason.
    And i would be cautious with assuming ukrainians are doing everything as they should from a nato perspective. I wasnt particularly impressed with the performance of the ukrainians we trained so im skeptical their officers are generally much better.
  20. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I wholly disagree with this idea. Weve spend this ammount of money to be able to destroy as many tanks/IFVs as quickly as we can because that has been the primary threat since NATO exists.
    The current MBT generation very well reflects that. They are for all intents and purposes tank destroyers and entirely optimized for that and in the 500m to 2500m range they are unparalelled in that task. For the longest time most didnt even have a proper HE round and the primary rounds were KE and HEAT. The IFVs were the ones doing the infantry support.
     
    The core and unique selling point of a tank is if a tank moves somewhere and encounters an enemy no matter what it is a tank stands a good chance to take it out without being taken out in return.
    That capability is so valuable that it will get continuously replicated and id argue its the essence of what makes a tank. What exact form this takes remains to be seen and it could very well eventually become unmanned and at some point most likely will have to be fully automated for short reaction times.
  21. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sure tanks have been used as indirect fire support. But the continuous flow of video evidence of tanks used in the direct fire role supporting infantry, spearheading attacks and anchoring defenses is together with the fact that both sides specifically want tanks not just spgs is clear evidence they still very much have a role.
    Tanks havent worked as effectively as expected for a variety of reasons.
    - Tanks developed 40 years ago and last updated 20 years ago going up against current munitions
    - An overall low training level
    - Bad combined arms especially on the russian side
    - Lack of short range air defense
     
    That airpower hasnt worked as wed expect if NATO was involved also isnt exactly hard to explain.
    - Both sides have fairly heavy air defenses
    - Ukraine simply doesnt have many aircraft available
    - Russia didnt really train and focus on SEAD which meant ukraines air defense stayed largely intact.
    - So we have mutually denied airspace
     
     
  22. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The length of early muskets has a lot more to do with getting velocity out of bad powder and bad barrel matallurgy.
    smoothbore barrels dont stabilize the round so they cant gaign accuracy and rifling already wirks with very short barles (an inch is enough). But early musktes with shorter barrels would have even less range or would need far more powder and would still be as heavy to withstand the pressure anyways.
     
  23. Like
    holoween got a reaction from Centurian52 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The role of a tank is direct fire. Its essentially a great sensor with a 0 time delay precision artillery attached. And ukraine and russia are using them in the direct fire role. If they werent they wouldnt be asking for tanks but spgs which do the whole indirect fire far better.
    were also seeing successful use of even just mraps for assaults and for the charkiv offensive they have been essential in quickly taking lots of ground once the line had been broken.
     
    Tanks have always taken heavy casualties in combat. But the alternative to using them has been firing artillery shells in such quantities that it wasnt sustainable with even the entire worlds production capacity dedicated to war and still taking infantry casualties at a rate unsustanable for most modern developed nations.
     
  24. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I wholly disagree with this idea. Weve spend this ammount of money to be able to destroy as many tanks/IFVs as quickly as we can because that has been the primary threat since NATO exists.
    The current MBT generation very well reflects that. They are for all intents and purposes tank destroyers and entirely optimized for that and in the 500m to 2500m range they are unparalelled in that task. For the longest time most didnt even have a proper HE round and the primary rounds were KE and HEAT. The IFVs were the ones doing the infantry support.
     
    The core and unique selling point of a tank is if a tank moves somewhere and encounters an enemy no matter what it is a tank stands a good chance to take it out without being taken out in return.
    That capability is so valuable that it will get continuously replicated and id argue its the essence of what makes a tank. What exact form this takes remains to be seen and it could very well eventually become unmanned and at some point most likely will have to be fully automated for short reaction times.
  25. Upvote
    holoween got a reaction from Grey_Fox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Giving current NATO doctrine an honest reality check is absolutely essential. But taking it as a starting point seems entirely reasonable.
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