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danfrodo

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  1. Like
    danfrodo got a reaction from sburke in The year to come - 2024 (Part 1)   
    my dog sometimes pees on the floor when excited.  I just did the same.  Embarrassing but an authentic emotional moment at least 😃
    UTAH BEACH BATTLES!!!!!  F YES!  And new FB & CW & FI!  
    Heading over to pre-order land right now aaaaand..... ordered 
  2. Like
    danfrodo reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Wouldn't they be in favour of this development?
  3. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Reportedly another Russian assault on Synkivka ending in predictable way.
    “Through endurance we conquer", as Ernest Shackelton famously wrote. I bet Russian generals whisper something like that while posing their muscles before mirrors or presenting orders for another decoration. Perhaps it's earlier clip just shot from another drone. Level of casualties is still stunning, though.    
  4. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    GUR agents performed diversion in deep Russian rear. Su-34 was set on fire on Shagol airfield near Cheliabinsk. 2nd mixed aviation regiment of 21st mixed aviation division is deployed here. 
    The video, officially issued by GUR. It's unknown how much damages inflicts to the jet this diversion.
     
  5. Like
    danfrodo got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    OK, I'll just admit I don't get it.  This indicates UKR makes new BTR4 w some kind of new turret on top?  
  6. Like
    danfrodo got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is all true, but I look at it a little more glass half full:  new cars are harder to work on, but they don't break nearly as much so not as big of a deal.  When I was young a car hitting 100k miles was on its last legs, having required a lot of repairs along the way.  Today one expects nothing except routine maintenence before 100k miles.  I greatly prefer the latter.  Of course, one could do the german tank design method in WW2 where you had both complexity and unreliability.
  7. Like
    danfrodo reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ISW is spooling up like they mean it after the Holidays, two major pieces on the Ukraine war. They seem to think Putin is going double down on a losing bet AGAIN. 
  8. Like
    danfrodo reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am not sure.  The capacity of equipment they likely needed was too large for them to absorb to keep the momentum of Fall ‘22 going.  Further no of that equipment solved the unmanned ISR problem.  I think the UA was stressed to try and pull together enough to consolidate its gains, let alone bounce into another set of operational offensives.  I mean the UA pulled off two separate offensives over 500km apart, while being missiled.  Asking for a third of fourth over the winter is a bar I am not any nation could reach for in this type of war.
    Now what we should have done was get more serious about the UA before the war even started.  We had from 14-22, eight freakin years.  The is definitely a lesson there.
  9. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    For those of you who have never heard of this system before, lets read a description from RU propaganda source Sputnik. Reads like an advertisement for this thing. 😀
     
     

  10. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  11. Like
    danfrodo got a reaction from OBJ in Engine 5 Wishlist   
    Jan 1, 2024 and no email from Steve on what is going one w BFC on anything, engine 5 or otherwise.  I am deeply saddened.
  12. Upvote
    danfrodo got a reaction from RMM in Engine 5 Wishlist   
    I still play, currently doing the old Courage Conquers campaign from CMFB.  But ready for some new goodies.  Or promises of new goodies.
  13. Like
    danfrodo reacted to CarlXII in Engine 5 Wishlist   
    The 2023 new years bone got posted on januari 30 it seems...So there's still hope 🥳
  14. Like
    danfrodo reacted to JoMac in Engine 5 Wishlist   
    The Month is Still Young, Sir@danfrodo...However, your probably still right.
  15. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Happy New Year 2024, Gentlemen and Gentleladies.
     
    Let's enjoy the news that Ukrainian sea drones apparently have missile launchers. 
     
  16. Upvote
    danfrodo got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ye old RU stuff blowing up.  It may be kinda sick, but I like watching those bent on murder getting blown up.  
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/31/2214678/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-New-Year-s-in-Ukraine?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
    I saw a post somewhere today showing an RU train w a dozen or so IFVs of various flavors, allegedly stuck waiting because RRoad was out.  I was bummed to see fresh IFVs for RU, then realized it was basically one day's worth given current RU losses.
  17. Like
    danfrodo reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They really aren't.  They want you all to believe they are getting stronger but that is simply not true.  Now whether they get weak enough to buckle under the limited pressure the UA can project is another story.  As to "pie in the sky"...why does everyone seem to forget the RA collapsed operationally 3 times in this war?  Now strategic collapse is debatable but setting up another operational one is by no means a pipe dream.
  18. Like
    danfrodo reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Bulletpoint
    Different objectives, different motivations.
    The West wants rule of law, free trade, and predictability. You know, all the things that allow rich folks to become richer. And, weirdly, that's one of the few things that rich folks are ready to see "their" taxes spent on. They'd still prefer it was your taxes being spent on it, but at a pinch they're prepared to grudgingly chip in a few pieces of silver.
    Uh, where was I? Oh, right; rule of law, free trade, predictability. Both the existence of Ukraine as a prosperous and independent country, and the outcome of the war in Ukraine are important for those things. Therefore those things are worth investing in by giving Ukraine literal tons of free stuff now in order to reap the global trade payoff later.
    China seems happy to use Russia as a cat's paw to mess with those things, and maybe thereby gain some maneuver space in the Pacific. But I doubt they care about Russia, or the outcome of the war, per se. Russia is failing and falling - it has been for a while, and the last couple of years has accelerated that. China might as well cash in while they still can. Sell their stuff at high prices, buy Russian stuff at low prices, while figuring out WTF they're going to do about Siberia if/when Russia disintegrates.
  19. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Eddy in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rotterdam?
  20. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think civilians should ever be targeted.
    But even if we accept the argument that Russians need to be attacked and made afraid in order to make them oppose the war, you should not bomb some tiny border town where people have no say in anything.
    The only thing their deaths will accomplish is to provide perfect fuel for the Russian propaganda machine.
    You should attack Moscow, and especially the areas where the Russian elite lives.
     
  21. Like
    danfrodo reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
    No military on earth can absorb those losses from op ready frontline forces and then bounce into another theatre against an opponent who has better C4ISR, AirPower, seapower and ground forces fighting a defensive battle.
    Even if this thing stayed non-nuclear, a pan attack on the Baltics would take the gloves off any Western escalation restraint.  Russia would be open to strategic deep strikes directly into Russian territory.  The first thing that would be dismantled is Russian transportation infrastructure and logistics nodes (fuel supplies and rail would be big ones).  Then C4ISR (such as it is) and military installations/infrastructure.  Then probably industry.  I think we might actually see Cyber wake up and Russian banking - now isolated from the west - would be hit hard.  Along with telecommunications and power generation.
    This would very likely not be a manned AC campaign, at least not initially.  We would be send cruise missiles and long range munitions to maul the Russian backfield before ground forces even got close to each other.  Without direct Chinese support - and China would likely stay out of this, Russia is in serious trouble before they even get a chance to get hit at the tactical or operational levels.  Then Russia would need to somehow deny their airspace but unlike Ukraine they are not denying it over a single narrow theatre.  They would need to deny it across all of western Russia.  That is a major bill that they may have been capable of back in Jan 22 but see: Oryx.
    If Russia loses air denial and NATO establishes air superiority, Russian ground forces - now largely barely trained and equipped in Cold War era vehicles - would be massacred.  I suspect NATO would do more damage to the Baltic states killing Russia.
    Russia could try and go nuclear but they know it is suicide see:  US nuclear trident.  So unless NATO physically invades Russia itself, and they won’t, this thing could be kept in a box….maybe.  
    Three conditions would need to be met for a successful Russian invasion of the Baltic states:
    1.  The war in Ukraine was won in a couple weeks back in 2022.
    2.  NATO collapses and the Baltic states are left isolated, and
    3.  Chinese support to Russia to create relative parity in some domains.
    As they are now…not a chance.
  22. Like
    danfrodo reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Eric Hoffer put it best: 
    "Propaganda doesn't deceive people; it merely helps them deceive themselves."
  23. Like
    danfrodo reacted to OBJ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I have overcome my uncomfortableness with getting off the couch and am going to get some food.
  24. Like
    danfrodo reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Because their sustainable military budget is maybe 1.5x the budget of the University of California.  Not the state of California, just the larger of the three state university systems.  
    The Russian navy isn't doing particularly well against a country that has no navy.
    The Russian army is stalled out with what it's currently holding against, as has been repeatedly pointed out, a country that was expected to last a week at most.  It's closing on 2 years, and they've pissed away the better part of 50 years of soviet production.
    Russia has no tech industry and depends on China for any tech.  Russia is a tiny customer to China compared to the west.
    The main thing that keeps Russia on the world stage is the leftover nukes from the USSR.  I don't think anybody really expects that Russia would use them unless directly attacked by an overwhelming force, but if Russia collapses in a chaotic way those nukes could get scattered to a lot of places that we would be a lot less happy to have them.
    Russia needs to lose badly in Ukraine, but not collapse internally to the extent that nuclear materials get scattered around willy nilly.  The west needs to support Ukraine in winning for the same non-proliferation reasons that they want to avoid Russian collapse: we promised protection in return for giving up the legacy nukes.  Ukraine gained independence as the 3rd largest possessor of nuclear weapons on the planet and gave them up voluntarily.  If you still had them, none of this would be happening now, and every little state with nuclear aspirations is watching closely.  If we abandon you there will be a mad rush of nuclear proliferation among much less stable countries.
  25. Like
    danfrodo reacted to Bearstronaut in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.
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