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Sir Lancelot

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  1. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think shooting at the direction that has friendly force is pure panic and disorganize.
    I guess the UKR side's original plan look like this
     

    RUS side main defense position is on the right side of the video. UKR's original plan requires the BMP platoon take the road on the right side and get into the overwatch position along the treeline. Then the company task force on the left side bypass the treeline, no man land, and attacking the Rus position.
    It looks like the UKR's company task force arrive at assembly area before the BMP platoon get into the overwatch position. And after receiving the direct fire, the first reaction is that the RUS troops are hiding in the treeline. It is quite logical. 
     
    UKR side realized where the real threat is after one minute of engagement, (and that is after the third APC hit) . Their reaction is relatively quick. They quickly maneuver to the right side of the field, avoid further loss. 
     
  2. Like
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Leaders who think they’re entitled to abuse their citizens — we’ve had those in the US too, you know? Good thing that checks and balances work, and stopped a would-be tinpot dictator.  I don’t want to turn this into an argument about US politics, so I’ll leave it at that.  Power corrupts, period.  Without checks and balances, such leaders can arise anywhere.
  3. Like
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You seem to have a caricature view of autocracy and theocracy.  Despite all their flaws, these states still provide stability, social benefits, and public services (to varying degrees).  To people living in these countries who may have never been to the West, but have received public services from their own (however flawed) governments, do you not see your view could be perceived as arrogant and condescending? How then do you plan on persuading these people that democracy is better?
  4. Like
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don’t believe in that rationale, because I know its flaws.  But you can’t engage in diplomacy or plan effective response if you can’t empathize with the other side.  Believing and understanding are fundamentally different concepts.
  5. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Of course China hasn’t been neutral in this war, but its interests are also not aligned with Russia’s (in truth, Putin’s).  What China wants is status quo ante bellum - China would’ve preferred  Putin had never started the war, but now that it’s started, China wants to see the war ended as soon as possible, but not at the expense of Russia becoming destabilized or Putin being ousted.  For this reason, we’ve so far seen China acting as Russia’s life line, but not so much so that China would send military aid to Russia.  However, if the US unnecessarily stokes tension in Taiwan at this moment, China could perceive this as a strangle move by the US and could  be provoked into sending material war support to Russia.  The West has been dragging its feet with delivering heavy weapons and struggling with sending enough ammunition when Ukraine has been fighting a mostly self-reliant Russian army.  Is it wise to further provoke the world’s second largest economy into becoming Russia’s arms factory, not to mention the global economic fallout that would ensue?
  6. Like
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I’m afraid you haven’t figured out autocrat’s mentality.  First, strongmen such as Putin and Xi have inflated ego and genuinely believe that only they can rejuvenate their countries — after all, they clawed their way to the top, surely it must mean that they are the strongest of the strong.  Second, they see themselves as paternal figures — policies, however draconian or bloody, are implemented for the long term good of the state.  Third, they see themselves in a constant struggle against an opportunistic West that is ready to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness  — therefore, as they perceive their countries are in a constant struggle for survival, they must have the courage to do the unsavory dirty work so that the motherland remains safe.  Putin’s fight for Ukraine and China’s for Taiwan are not really about expanding the empire but rather strengthening the empire by securing a sphere of influence so that the heartland is in a strategically safer position.  Putin and Xi (to a lesser extent) are mentally living in the past — they still firmly believe in great power politics of the 19th century.
  7. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, he's describing the Russian/Chinese leader mindset, not agreeing with it. Putin is probably genuinely worried about the threat of a NATO attack, just like in the cold war the USSR was worried about the danger of a NATO first strike, even thought everyone in NATO knew there was no way NATO would launch a first strike.
    Also, the Putin mindset is more worried about capabilities than intentions: Intentions can change much more quickly. So what the current leaders intend doesn't matter much. What counts is what they are capable of, and Russian actions are aimed at countering capabilities (on which they screwed up massively)
  8. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I’m afraid you haven’t figured out autocrat’s mentality.  First, strongmen such as Putin and Xi have inflated ego and genuinely believe that only they can rejuvenate their countries — after all, they clawed their way to the top, surely it must mean that they are the strongest of the strong.  Second, they see themselves as paternal figures — policies, however draconian or bloody, are implemented for the long term good of the state.  Third, they see themselves in a constant struggle against an opportunistic West that is ready to pounce at the slightest sign of weakness  — therefore, as they perceive their countries are in a constant struggle for survival, they must have the courage to do the unsavory dirty work so that the motherland remains safe.  Putin’s fight for Ukraine and China’s for Taiwan are not really about expanding the empire but rather strengthening the empire by securing a sphere of influence so that the heartland is in a strategically safer position.  Putin and Xi (to a lesser extent) are mentally living in the past — they still firmly believe in great power politics of the 19th century.
  9. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from George MC in Syrian Army Realism Mod 1.0   
    Here comes version 1.2: I modded the Syrian fighters so that they wear at least some camouflage. The mod folder linked below also contains my previous work on the Syrian regular forces.
    https://www.dropbox.com/sh/bwgu0k7bdjpblkr/AADo5tmmL0RTWPz8omGaS6twa?dl=0

  10. Like
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from NamEndedAllen in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is an ancient Chinese proverb — “Cold the teeth shalt be when the lips demise.”  It means that when an ally is all that stands between you and a powerful foe, its demise will bring the flames of war to your lands and spell your own doom.  This proverb is known to every Chinese because it was the reason that Mao famously gave for sending troops to fight in Korea.  Xi and his cadre grew up with this proverb reverberating at their ears, and I’m certain that this is the chief reason on their mind for choosing to back Putin at this dire moment.
  11. Like
    Sir Lancelot got a reaction from Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is an ancient Chinese proverb — “Cold the teeth shalt be when the lips demise.”  It means that when an ally is all that stands between you and a powerful foe, its demise will bring the flames of war to your lands and spell your own doom.  This proverb is known to every Chinese because it was the reason that Mao famously gave for sending troops to fight in Korea.  Xi and his cadre grew up with this proverb reverberating at their ears, and I’m certain that this is the chief reason on their mind for choosing to back Putin at this dire moment.
  12. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Sekai in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Biden is in Kyiv!
    Massive show of support just before one-year anniversary, Moscow must be on edge
  13. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The foundation of reactionary politics in US is that many ordinary people live in relative luxury but imagine it is penury and that their kids won’t do as well as they did (Trump support was overwhelmingly from folks making above $50k/year). Their antipathy to immigrants is that they worry they might actually do this whole America thing better.
    Ukraine’s reactionary politics is being crushed by this war. The oligarchs simply can’t compete in a society where corruption is a barrier to throwing out the hated Russian bear. And regular people are learning they can fight a war, use social contacts to supply an army, self fund tank destroyer units. It’s civic empowerment in the most accelerated way. You can see in things like that video from a few months ago where a police checkpoint was shaking down drivers. The local TD unit found out and came and arrested them all. 
    One can see this sort of attitude in Vietnam. For all of that nation’s problems, people have a sense of identity and a confidence that is pretty amazing. It makes them much more powerful than their mere numbers suggest.
     
  14. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to NamEndedAllen in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Opinion in the Wash Post, mirroring what many here have advocated for quite a while.  (Emphasis mine)
    “Putin didn’t invade because he thought that Ukraine was going to join NATO. He always knew that was vanishingly unlikely. He attacked Ukraine because he believed — with abundant evidence — that we were not really serious about protecting Ukraine. He attacked because he wanted to rebuild the old Soviet imperium, and because he believed — foolishly — that he was going to win. If we had been brave and consistent enough to bring Ukraine into NATO — if we had actually meant what we said — then this utter catastrophe would have been averted. I know that, in some European capitals, this outcome will seem hard to digest. But the logic is inescapable. For the sake of stability and peace, Ukraine now needs clarity about its position in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. All our dodging and weaving has ended in slaughter.
     
    Ukrainians should be given everything they need to finish this war, as quickly as possible, and we should begin the process of admitting Ukraine to NATO, and begin it now. It would be no use if Moscow complains. They had a case once, and they were heard with respect. That case has been pulverized by the bombs and missiles of Putin.”
    Opinion by Boris Johnson January 30, 2023 at 11:16 a.m. PT
  15. Upvote
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A couple of days ago, I posted a link about this guy and his team's grim work to recover bodies of soldiers killed in Ukraine and bring them home so their families could have closure. Unfortunately, his dangerous mission also cost him his life. Even though it's just one of many tragic stories from this war, I thought he deserved to be mentioned.
     
    Ukraine war: Funeral held for battleground body collector
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64446436
     
  16. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to boygarvin in pitbull's Russian Mods   
    Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Mod - Update
    This is an update to the VDV mod. 
    What's been added?
    - Helmet textures with ribbons have been added.
    - The 6B45 vest has been added to a variety of the textures, as opposed to the 6B43 that was present in the original pack.
    - The original 6SH122 Ratnik masking suit has had the tabs/loops added to them. (A very minor addition, honestly. Simply a fix of an oversight.)
    - New ATACS/Moss masking suit textures have been added, as have been seen being worn by VDV reconnaissance troops.
    - New textures with a Multicam A18 plate carrier have been added, of which have also been seen being worn by VDV reconnaissance troops.
    That's about it, for now.
     
    To install, simply delete the previous VDV mod and insert this in it's place.
    As always, please enjoy: https://www.mediafire.com/file/cxrp8sb9kvv2rr8/vdv_update.rar/file
  17. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  18. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.
    I shall pass over all their 'Alternative Facts' around the will and condition of Russia and the Russian forces and present only their view of what is happening to the Ukrainian forces on the ground.
    Fact based refutations preferred, please. Spluttering invective about 'lying Orcs' is of no practical use here.
    THESIS:  In spite of a Western media propaganda campaign and some notable Russian failures, Russia is methodically degrading Ukraine’s military capacity. 
    1. Ukraine is running out of AFVs and other vehicles
    This is both due to combat losses and logistical/fuel bite.
    1.1  UA is now 95% a leg infantry army, including new militia formations. While Ukraine spins this as an innovation, such forces are capable of only shallow local attacks.
    1.2 A huge portion of UA mechanised forces abandoned its AFVs and artillery under heavy RA attack in the first week of hostilities, becoming pure infantry formations. 
    1.3 UA is largely using passenger vehicles for transport and supply. Priority for remaining army transport has gone to keeping its dwindling artillery arm in the field.
    1.4 Russia has taken out most repair facilities in East Ukraine. Damaged vehicles must be shipped long distances, or abroad, to be repaired and refit. Russian videos show UA vehicles that have been cannibalized for parts and then abandoned.
    2. Ukraine is running out of fuels and POL:
    2.1  Only 1/3 of Ukraine's gas stations are still open. The civilian economy is in rapid decline and supply chains are breaking down, especially outside the large cities.
    2.2 Ukraine no longer has any functioning refineries. Tank farms have also been hard hit.
    2.3 Fuels must be trucked to the front in civilian tankers after being railed in from abroad at the expense of other cargo. Tankers cannot reach Odessa and the Rumanians have not been overly cooperative.
    3. Ukraine is running short of weapons and ammo
    3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.
    3.2 Clever video editing makes Ukrainian missiles and artillery look far more accurate and deadly than they are. In fact, several Javelin hits are needed to take out a MBT. Stugna has only a 1 in 5 hit rate and its kill rate vs. MBTs is very poor.
    3.3 Western heavy artillery, with unfamiliar calibres and loads, is proving very hard for even experienced UA gunners to deploy and use effectively.
    3.4  Russia seems able to jam Switchblade drones and almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva.
    3.5  Russia has been making very effective use of its cruise missile assets, destroying key facilities and arms stocks. It has extremely good humint from sources inside Ukraine. An entire month's supply of newly arrived Western anti-tank weapons was recently destroyed in missile strikes on 3 sites in Lvov. UA attempts to disperse these assets has thrown its logistics situation even deeper into chaos.
    3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.
    4. Ukraine is running out of capable soldiers.
    4.1 About 10% of the UA standing army on day 1 have been lost (dead/ invalided/ captured). That is a 'decimation' of its most experienced and skilled cadre, and will take as much as a year to bring back to its Feb 2022 condition.
    4.2 Widespread draft evasion has occurred, especially in the Russian speaking east and also among urban educated youth. Only a few thousand Ukrainian expatriates have returned to serve, and the ballyhooed wave of Western volunteers has not materialised in meaningful numbers.
    4.3  UA replacements are being sent into action with very little training. Specialists and skilled technicians are in critically short supply and veteran cadre are on the front lines, not training newcomers.
    4.4 After nearly 60 days, the UA irregular infantry forces' ability to live off the land (local people and their food) is running down rapidly.  Their amateur, improvised logistical chains are totally inadeqate.
    4.5  In spite of UA having years to prepare stay behind forces, in the southern oblasts there have been very few incidents of partisan activity or sabotage. This indicates  general acquiescence by the local population, which in large part has not evacuated (excepting active combat zones).
    ****
    Again, for avoidance of doubt I make no endorsement whatsoever of the above, so don't freekin' @ me.....
  19. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    LOL!

  20. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I can only speak for myself here but I registered on this forum because the way this war is covered in this topic is better than any other place I have seen on the internet or on mainstream media for that matter.
    I have never played a CM game in my life but I will definitely be getting into the series in the future now that I see how passionate people in this community are about letting people understand the realities of warfare.
    In the mean time I wish the Armed Forces of Ukraine all the luck in the world!
  21. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Jeepers, where were you on, the CoD forums?
  22. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Here is a lengthy but comprehensive review.  Haven't listened to all of it, but nothing unreasonable in the opening bits:
     
  23. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ruble robunds artiffically. Usual citizens can't buy USD officially. Only via black market - 210 RUB for 1 USD. Here is real exchange rate. 
  24. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Nicdain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Following what Der Zeitgeist said, I checked Maxar satellite imagery search website (https://discover.digitalglobe.com). Between February 28th and March 31st, there have been 4 overflights by Worldview 2 and 3 and Geoeye 1 very high resolution satellites over Bucha (on February 28th, March 18th, 21st and 31st). So plenty of images to check, contrary to what Southfront claims
     
  25. Like
    Sir Lancelot reacted to Der Zeitgeist in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    On the pro-Russian side, there's some stories going around that the satellite imagery showing the bodies in Bucha might be fake. This is mostly based on this "analysis" from "Southfront", claiming that none of Maxar's satellite had their orbits going over the region during the dates mentioned on the pictures: https://southfront.org/more-evidence-more-doubts-about-bucha-massacre/ .
    I looked into that, and as expected, it's a poorly-made fake counting on people being too lazy to check the satellite tracks themselves, which can be easily done by using tools like this one: https://in-the-sky.org/satmap_worldmap.php
    On each of the dates, March 21 & March 19, Maxar's satellites (specifically WorldView-1 & GeoEye-1) passed directly over Kyiv.

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