kluge

seems like an excessively bad idea.  If you were going to do this to disrupt a Ukrainian offensive, you'd think they'd wait till there was a verifiable offensive.  Now they just suffer all the bad effects and the UA doesn't have to guess if they'd blow the dam.
 

It will have enormous non-military impacts. The nuclear plants water requirements have been greatly reduced by the six plus months it has been shut down. But you probably need some sort of temporary dam to even attempt to turn it back on. Ukraine lose the hydroelectric capacity of dam itself, and it completely bleeps the irrigation scheme for some of the worlds most productive farm land. Their will be vast civilian flooding damage, and I am sure I am not even five percent of the way through the actual list. but none of it can be fixed until the last orc is dead or gone. I will leave my preference on that last bit as exercise for the reader.

Oh dear, it’s blown
 

The memes are already coming in. 😁
 
 

Just put them in the F-35 program and be done with it. 😂

LOL, this is obviously just the 1st Gen prototype that will evolve into the Mobile Parking Garage (MPG). The MPG will allow the UA to phase out almost all other direct fire platforms (AFV, IFV, APC, etc). The next video will showcase the infantry dismount models that resemble out houses and telephone booths. The crew served weapons are humbly based on wood sheds for rural operations and kiosks for urban tactical options!   

So if the Russians mistook AMX-10RCs for Leo 2s, those Russian soldiers who are still alive are firmly in the AMX-10RC is a tank camp.
Remember those never ending debates on Twitter if the AMX-10RC is a tank or not, when France first agreed to supply them to the AFU? 😎

Interesting…
He was previously in command of the 104th Guards Air Assault Regiment, 76th Guards Air Assault Division.

Sounds a bit like 1944 in Normandy when every German tank the Allies encountered was a Tiger.

This was discussed some infinity of pages ago, but if Russia has gotten 75% of the adult male population of the D/LPR killed or crippled for life they would not nearly as problematic for Ukraine to run after the war as many people assume.

The eternal truth of a mafia state from Miller's Crossing:
"You run it because people think you do. They stop thinking it you stop running it."
There's also a basic issue of bandwidth. Putin has centralized the entire war to a narrow circle around him. They  simply don't have the time or the skill set to get a handle on new developments as they are struggling already to manage old developments. Their ooda loop just can't keep up any more and control is slipping in broadening waves. 

It's certainly a lot easier to figure out what's going on in daytime videos.  
CMOS and CCD sensors have some sensitivity in the very near IR (700 nm out to 1 micron wavelength) - basically what you get with consumer security cameras in the <$100 range.  For most applications there's a filter in front of the sensor to take that out, but cameras intended for security cams often are unfiltered.  They're not super sensitive, so most security cameras also have a bunch of IR LEDs to light up the scene - for battery operated cameras with a motion sensor they'll use whatever background light there is for sensing, then turn on the LEDs when there's motion.  The catch with that is that the illumination is very short range - effectively tens of feet.  You can work without the illuminators, but the sensitivity of the cameras is pretty low, so you won't get nearly as many targets as in the daytime.  If the targets have bad IR discipline (which the Russians very well might), you might get a reasonable number of targets, but it will be relatively hard to navigate the drone without it showing GPS on a map.
Longer wave IR gets more expensive fast - the sensors are more expensive (and more export restricted), and generally have to be cooled.  Thermoelectric coolers are very low efficiency and will suck a lot of battery.  There are some very small cryocoolers that are more efficient, but still likely to suck quite a bit of power, and use up a lot of the payload mass. So that kind of thing is probably more limited to the bigger and less expendable drones (and things like GlobalHawk)
 

Legacy soviet kit - with legacy Soviet commanders - to conduct the breach, leaving younger commanders with shiny kit and western training to conduct the exploitation.
Kinda makes sense; breaching operations are very process and timetable driven, and a rigid command style suits that.

Is this just a weird US centric point of view? US losses in the Pacific theater in WW2? I mean, there were plenty of wars with many more casualties than 100,000.
Amazing that this might be news to... well, really anyone at all.
No kidding!
Is it? I mean, cynical, calculating, maybe. But certainly not crazy and I don't think immoral. Look at the mess Iraq was and still to some degree is. And ISIS which is the direct consequence. Something similar in Russia but with nukes is just a nightmare. I don't see what's so crazy about helping Ukraine while at the same time trying to prevent another, possibly even bigger, tragedy.

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.
I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.
Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:
https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 
Here is the summary:
General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders  Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir. Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany) new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model") NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany  the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD  German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise.  Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge. 
 

And within two years, at the MOST, these things will not need operators. Some countries will pretend somebody is glancing at the video screen and approving the target, and some countries won't bother. either way you just draw a kill box on a map and tell them to go hunting. Have a rock solid solution to this threat, or don't show up the for next war. Without operators, or the need for much comms band width, if any, the will show in tens and twenties, and hundreds. As Steve just said, one Excalibur or ~25-50 kamikaze drones. Ukraine may get there by January 2024 if that CNN article is not entirely hype/propaganda. I think the Ukrainians will say something like "the unit commander used to be a lawyer, and he says he likes his orcs deep fried in their own diesel, works for us".

Possible?  Sure.  But it probably takes a lot of luck.  The radar signature of the drone will be really small, so that's not going to be that effective for a hit.  The TOR system also can use optical tracking/guiding, but unless you can keep the drone in the crosshairs it's probably going to be hard to get a direct hit.  Even if the missile has proximity triggers, they're probably not sensitive enough that a drone will set them off as the missile approaches.

That is a good take on it.
 

They caught them with their Pantsir-S down.
 
Ok, sorry.

The thing you won’t hear much in the analysis of the Biden administration is how unlike previous administrations this one is on Russia. For starters, they figured out that Putin was going to invade Ukraine, decided that the US was going to support Kyiv and began relentlessly pushing European allies *in April* of 2021. Why different? It’s not just the level of pre-planning, it’s also that Biden uniquely among recent American presidents had absolutely zero misconceptions about VVP, the strategic understanding of what a fallen Ukraine would mean and what a policy guy I know calls “**** it” old man energy. He’s a 78 year old guy who isn’t trying to set up some post Presidential foundation or get rich or whatever. He is just doing Ukraine right with all the tools at his disposal. 
He’s certainly an older guy but if this is what old guys who trip on sandbags are like, I’ll take it.

kerch bridge was built on extremely difficult soil. Leading to highly specific engineering. Which not only caused extensive foundation, but also the methods of the construction and were untypical. I wouldnt be surprised if in the rebuilding process without foreign expertise, people decide to use the ol time civil engineering secret formula: 'do the result of this calculation x1,5 just to be sure".
apart from maybe undetected fractures due to the first collapse, adding unplanned weight and stiffness might not have been the best tactic for this bridge specifically.

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

If that is what make you sad and only thing you thought about, pack some tranquilizer medicines and try a walk in Warsaw, Bełżec, Majdanek or myriad other places fathers and brothers of those "killed children" crossed. Or see empitness of Jewish quarter here in Lublin, where entire vibrant city stood- and now is a grass field with single lamp. Even better, one could reach for some memoirs of III Reich slaves, who also died by thousands in those air raids. Very different picture will emerge than this cheap sentimentalism, I assure you.
Btw., since you have visible inclination to levell victims with perpetrators, when war end try visit place in Kyiv called Babyi Yar. It was bombed by Russians early in the current war, where family including small girl burned alive in a car. Quite symbolic connection between two wars.
Back to the topic.
Folks, keep proportions here, ok? Several small drones with 20kg warheads (or even without them) flew near windows of botox-covered lovers of some Russian oligarchs and some cry as it would be carpet bombing of Japan. It's war, let's move this discussions on moral high ground when something size of Iskanders start to fall on Russian cities daily.
More interesting question is if USA gave green light for this or not. If they did, I think it speaks volumes how our perception toward Ukraine changed positivelly.

On the drone strikes in Russia:
- far too soon for direct attribution back to Ukraine.  Even if those drones were Ukrainian made that does not mean they were targeted and executed by the UA. Ukrainian government appears to have denied and Russia has failed to attribute sponsorship or direct operation.
- these strikes could just as easily be Ukrainian sponsored but carried out by Russia resistance/insurgents - this scenario is far more disruptive and undeciding for the Russian government than a direct UA attack.
- these attacks could also be Russian government sponsored and carried out with captured or re manufactured Ukrainian systems. Given the light damage and lack of any real noted casualties, this could easily be a scare tactic by Putin on his own people to drive support narrative his way. Right now there has been no conclusive evidence either way.
- if this was a UA directed and executed strike well it was both impressive and not.  We are either looking at a behind the lines op with a lot of moving parts or a 500-600 deep strike.  It is not impressive in that it was imprecise and hit no serious targets beyond breaking some windows and rattling shingles in a “rich neighbourhood”.  This is what lend me to think it was third party or inside job.  Ukraine has demonstrated significant precision in its deep strikes - Kerch Bridge, airfields in Crimea, and those ships on the Azov in port.  So to suddenly be “blind lobbing” into Moscow is off trend.
- As to the legitimacy of the targets, well what were the actual targets?  We do not know. Those drones could have been aimed at a number of military targets but Russian EW drove them into those neighborhoods.  Those “rich people” could be leadership in the Russian government or military which would make them legit and any civilians as acceptable collateral - and here it gets into a whole lot of targeteering and legality issues.
- Effects.  Well a lot of them and more than a little muddled.  Ukrainian moral will be buoyed as they are finally hitting back so there is a symbolism there. Russians will be scared as their war comes home to roost; however, this is hardly “shock and awe”.  This will likely drive a lot of support Putin’s way to protect his people and do whatever it takes.  It will also likely provide fodder for anti-Putin sentiment as he did not protect them and drove Russia into this mess.  
The targeting of “rich neighborhoods” is interesting as it sends a message of class divides - this is more likely sign of insurgency, an inside Russian false flag job would have targeted common folk. In the West we will raise an eyebrow and scratch our heads a bit. I mean we start seeing dead Russian children and there will likely be a backlash (two wrongs not making right in many books) but this was not that. Ukraine does need to tread carefully here (and has), no point conducting operations that enhance anti-war support in the West.
Militarily it could pull more AD assets back into Russia proper and away from the main theatre, so in that way it could be shaping.  So overall a bit of a mishmash really.  All negative decision pressure but some could work for Putin and gang, while others do not.  Gotta be honest, to my eyes this looks a lot like third party backfield pot stirring - central question remains “by whom?”
Effective attribution is three layers deep: What happened?  Who did it? (an entire chain there from operator to sponsor).  Why did they do it?  Right now as far as I can see we do not even have the first one covered fully.

It was. And a huge warcrime.