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Hapless

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  1. Like
    Hapless reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Must be Tuesday again….
  2. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Maybe we should keep a running graph...
  3. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Maybe we should keep a running graph...
  4. Like
    Hapless reacted to Probus in The first Red Thunder Tournament has been announced   
    Nicely done @Hapless!
  5. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from Halmbarte in Complete Road to Montebourg   
    After a full year and a half I've finally finished CMBN's original Road to Montebourg campaign. Only took me a decade to get round to it after buying CMBN!

    Here's the full playlist, there should be a link in the top right of the embed you can use to swap between missions:
  6. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh boy, here we go:
     
  7. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from Mindestens in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh boy, here we go:
     
  8. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh boy, here we go:
     
  9. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from Monty's Mighty Moustache in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh boy, here we go:
     
  10. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Oh boy, here we go:
     
  11. Like
    Hapless reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The longer I watch this war the more I wonder if it isn’t a microcosm of how the Cold War would have gone down if it had gone hot in the mid 80s.  NATO had invested in C4ISR, precision and technology.  Russia in mass.  Air superiority would have been in doubt and perhaps resulted in mutual denial.  
    Assuming the whole thing stayed conventional we could have seen extensive initial Soviet advances but they would have been strung out and logistics lines were stretched and exposed.  Deep Battle would have kicked in and the Soviets would have found themselves over extended.  They may have then buckled and fell back to NATO counter attack until they could assemble massive defensive positions (minefields etc).
    The whole thing may have resulted in incremental Soviet gains at insane costs.  Or right back to the start lines after tens of thousand dead and wounded.  West would have gone back to containment and squeezing while the Soviets buckled under the weight of trying to pay for it all.
    Of course a whole lot could have happened differently given scope and scale differences but I can’t shake the feeling that there are similarities.
  12. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's see how this pans out:
    If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.
  13. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's see how this pans out:
    If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.
  14. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As usual, I'm suddenly finding I accomplished something entirely by accident and feel a culturally ingrained need to apologise...

    But hey-ho, back to work.
  15. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Those side-by-side thermal and non-augmented shots really show off how important thermals are
  16. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's see how this pans out:
    If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.
  17. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's see how this pans out:
    If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.
  18. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's see how this pans out:
    If true, then we're looking at a successful infantry-focused river crossing to compare-contrast with the failed heavy metal Russian attempts at Bilohorivka.
  19. Like
    Hapless reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR artillery or HIMARS has struck Russian supply convoy in Hladkivka village, 25 km south from Kherson, this is Hola Prystan' direction - relatively calm area, distant from Krynky. Russians got too much relax and...
    Claimed losses 8 trucks destroyed and damaged, up to 25 killed and up to 30 wounded.
    Judging on angry posts among Russian milbloggers, these losses can be close to the true.
     
     
  20. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from Panserjeger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As usual, I'm suddenly finding I accomplished something entirely by accident and feel a culturally ingrained need to apologise...

    But hey-ho, back to work.
  21. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just wait until these are automatic homing and deployable via artillery
     
     
  22. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just wait until these are automatic homing and deployable via artillery
     
     
  23. Like
    Hapless got a reaction from cyrano01 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If no one can attack the result is... peace?

    I mean, caveats ahoy and not necessarily a warm, fun peace that everyone enjoys... maybe more like the 90s where it's 'peace' if you live in the right places and people living everywhere else double down on that asymmetry thing.
  24. Like
    Hapless reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Or a grinding war of Exhaustion.  Guy named Bowdish did a long history view and came up with 5 basic military strategies:
    - Extermination (not used as much these days but does happen), complete removal of an opponent bottom to top.  Mongols were really good at this one.
    - Exhaustion.  Essentially fighting until one side can no longer hold it together on a societal scale. Think end of WW1.
    - Annihilation.   The destruction of an opponents ability to fight.  Two sub methods here: Attrition and Dislocation.  Attrition is basically wearing down until military failure happens.  Corrosion is a modern spin on this theme, think of it as rapid precise Attrition.  Dislocation is Manoeuvre Warfare, out tempo, out move and fracture while imposing your own order.
    - Intimidation.  The land of Deterrence and Coercion.  However there are examples of Compellance in this space as well.
    - Subversion.  We have talked a lot about this one and all that Grey Zone stuff.
    So both sides in this war have tried Annihilation and they may have taken it as far as it can go.  Manoeuvre is a distant memory.  Attrition is happening but we may have even run out of options room here.  So we are likely down to Exhaustion.  Keep in mind this is deeper than military Attrition, the calculus is different.  It is essentially draining things like human capita, industrial capacity and economics.  One bleeds an opponent out an a national scale, slowly.  Will becomes very important in Exhaustion and this is why Russia will likely try and keep the conflict in this arena - Putin figures that Russia can take more, longer than the West is willing to give.  He is basically playing chicken with his own society.  Of all the crap he has done, this is probably the most irresponsible: he is betting that a nuclear power won’t totally collapse before the West pulls back.  That is bigger than his or Russian insular BS as we are talking Sum of All Fears stuff.
    But here we are.  The good news is that the support bill for the UA will likely go down drastically as defensive warfare will be prioritized.  And as Russia has demonstrated one can basically hold that together with landmines and bailing twine [aside: I wonder what Ukraine and the Wests landmine stocks look like?].
    Or maybe peace breaks out.  A dirty unsettled peace that will never heal over.  We will very likely do this again in 10 years or so unless we can cauterize.
  25. Upvote
    Hapless got a reaction from fry30 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As usual, I'm suddenly finding I accomplished something entirely by accident and feel a culturally ingrained need to apologise...

    But hey-ho, back to work.
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