The_MonkeyKing

110th. russian assault being destroyed.
Some new footage, I think? Definetaly less cuts than whatever ends up on twitter I think. There will be another part showing all the casulties

You know we North Americans are often told that "we don't get Russia", or most of Europe for that matter.  What is clear from this fiasco is that cluelessness cuts both ways.  So the best PR guys Putin had all settled on the idea that the best way to shift US public sentiment was a detailed history lesson on Eastern (fine, Central) Europe?  Oh ya, all of our modern culture speaks to our deep reverence for European history minutia, claims and counter claims.
Here is what the US (and Canada to a large extent) really think. 
"We won and some Europeans tagged along - Tom Hanks really won WW2.  We have English/French/Some 'Old Country' grandparents, so there is that.  The world is - 'Us, Them and The Rest.'  We really do not care about King Uteslav or whatever, unless someone makes a cool movie about it.  Why are White people killing each other in Ukraine?  We are used to Brown people killing each other, or us killing brown people...but this is weird.  We are spending how much on all this?!  Have you seen how much bananas cost these days?!  It is sad when kids die...now I feel bad.  They are still shooting each other...now I am getting bored.  Oh dear election time again and my XYZ is now the most important thing in the entire history of our species - if that guy is for/against it, he is worse than Hitler (who we all know was really bad...see Tom Hanks)."
I am not sure what Putin's best play here was, but it sure as hell wasn't what happened.  As to Carlson...welcome to your legacy...
 

That is a very good analogy.  McClellan was a brilliant force generation general.  He built a modern army out of a tiny start up.  That was an enormous task with many critical systems essentially beginning from nothing - logistics, C4ISR, training and doctrine.  He was in fact exactly what the Union needed at the beginning of the war.  But when it came time to fight, he was sub par and dangerous.  The political level had to replace him and find the right general for the right time: Grant.
Grant would have been a disaster in the first half of the war.  He would have fought like Lee and likely broken the north.  Lee was arguably the wrong general for the South too.  Aggressive to a fault. Slavish adherence to the offensive.  He took an incredibly motivated military and basically broke it without achieving victory.  Now a strong argument can be made that he knew he was up against the clock and was essentially trying to destroy the Union before they inevitably grew too strong but there are holes in this.  However, the Confederacy never solved for stuff like logistics or C4ISR over the same period - that is a major strategic shortfall.
Regardless, generals are very often terrible in a moment other than their own.  Most of the wartime generals of WW2 would have been horrible in small dirty wars.  Good generals in low intensity or peacetime often fail in wartime.  The trick is to put the right general in the chair at the right time. I do not know what the dynamic is with the UA but clearly the politically level has decided they need someone else for what comes next…we will have to see if they are right.

It is official, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi dismissed from his current duties
 

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email
"For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
"As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. "
"The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option."
"The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being."
"Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing."
"The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches."
"Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention."
 

Sufficient unto the day, tomorrow they have to wake up and push the next step. I didn't think Schumer and McConnell could get this vote done, but now that they have I think the odds of getting out of the Senate are pretty good. The House....not sure they could name a post office at the moment, but it would literally only take three Republicans growing a spine to get this done.
He explains further in a video.

I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.
Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.

I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.
Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.

It is official, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi dismissed from his current duties
 

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email
"For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
"As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. "
"The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option."
"The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being."
"Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing."
"The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches."
"Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention."
 

With the US aid deadlock continuing European countries must start funding US arms for Ukraine.
It is surprising to me this is not already happening. European countries are moaning about insuffient production capasity and empty stockpiles... How about purchasing the weapons from where there are plenty (USA, Asia...)?

Here are the latest episodes of "The Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman" (paywall)
A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, part 1&2
Mike sat down with his two co-authors, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The three discussed their recent War on the Rocks article, "Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine's Advantage in 2024," which was published on Jan. 26, 2024.
the article: https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/
A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, Part 2.mp3 A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, Part 1.mp3

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email
"For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
"As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. "
"The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option."
"The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being."
"Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing."
"The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches."
"Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention."
 

There are some key systems that are only available from the USA. Some of these are: HIMARS/M270 munitions, Patrioit intercepters, AMRAAM/AIM-9(airToAir&GroundToAir) ...
Even if Europe made the decisions to invest in own production it could take a decade and would in many cases make very little sense. Of course it is important for Europe to raise its production capacity and it is already doing it, but there is the transitional period with the long "lead times" and some systems will never be made in Europe. 
Lets make the hypothetical example that Europe had weapons available 5% of Ukraines needs and USA had 1000% available of Ukraines needs. Would it not make sense for the weapons come from the USA with cost split fairly between Europe and the USA?

Usually I ignore most of articles in WP/ NT about Ukraine, because many of them had been written by authors, who worked in Russia or had any relations with Russia and this is not journalistic, but sort of influence on public opinion and to sow scepticism. 
But this is article, despite had been written by "anonimous sources among UKR battalion and company commanders" (if I see "anononimous source", this is 50/50 BS) in whole reflects probably more significant problem, than artillery sjells shortage - the crictical lack of pesonnel in "line units" - those who hold positions and should go forward. Problems with mobilisation and failed information policy of the state in this sector led to army receive too few replenishment. And many of infantry, who come from Ukrainian tarining centers have very weak training. (My addition - existing 151st training center, established by volunteers and saved in endless wars with old soviet dumbs top brass from GS anD MoD gives very food training, but can't reterain more that 2-3 batatlions for one cycle)
In conditions, when units have 30-40 % of personnel, which have no normal rest, we can't think about any offensives, And if this not be solved in short perspective, this with addition of probable US aid termination can lead to very bad consequences
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/

Yep, the one good thing coming out of the current T mess in America is that Europe seems to be stepping up and in the short term until Europe has internal production sorted America will gain more sales.
It would be good if deals on key ammunition could be done at cost plus small % profit. 
Ukraine needs to keep Russia at bay and we (Europe) have to provide them with at a minimum the ammunition to do so. Even if that means spending money in America. 

There are some key systems that are only available from the USA. Some of these are: HIMARS/M270 munitions, Patrioit intercepters, AMRAAM/AIM-9(airToAir&GroundToAir) ...
Even if Europe made the decisions to invest in own production it could take a decade and would in many cases make very little sense. Of course it is important for Europe to raise its production capacity and it is already doing it, but there is the transitional period with the long "lead times" and some systems will never be made in Europe. 
Lets make the hypothetical example that Europe had weapons available 5% of Ukraines needs and USA had 1000% available of Ukraines needs. Would it not make sense for the weapons come from the USA with cost split fairly between Europe and the USA?

With the US aid deadlock continuing European countries must start funding US arms for Ukraine.
It is surprising to me this is not already happening. European countries are moaning about insuffient production capasity and empty stockpiles... How about purchasing the weapons from where there are plenty (USA, Asia...)?

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email
"For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
"As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. "
"The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option."
"The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being."
"Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing."
"The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches."
"Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention."
 

Here are the latest episodes of "The Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman" (paywall)
A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, part 1&2
Mike sat down with his two co-authors, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, and Dara Massicot, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The three discussed their recent War on the Rocks article, "Hold, Build, and Strike: A Vision for Rebuilding Ukraine's Advantage in 2024," which was published on Jan. 26, 2024.
the article: https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/
A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, Part 2.mp3 A New Strategic Vision for Ukraine, Part 1.mp3

Looking though Oryx data over time again: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine
Keeping up suprisingly steady phase



 

I think this is an extension of the whole Zelensky/Zaluzny thing.  Politically towns and cities matter very much.  Militarily the answer is far less cut and dry. 
Looking on the map:

Adiivka has next to zero operational value.  It is stubborn salient that the RA is breaking a division upon - that is its military value.  If Adiivka falls it means next to nothing unless this is somehow the lynchpin of the entire UA defence in this sector - which we know it is not.  No natural obstacles, no transport infra implications.  Any core resources or communications tech centered on Adiivka?
This whole "not one step back" plays well to the public but in reality land war is a lot of trading ground for options.  And right now the RA is not buying anymore options through this whole exercise. 
"But if we lose it, we will just have to take it back."  Well true, but if the RA breaks another division there, perhaps it might be much easier to take back afterwards?  And frankly this whole sector is an offensive nightmare - you take back Adiivka...so what?  Next stop is an urban hell called Donetsk.  This is a side show the RA is being pushed into politically and blowing itself all to hell over.  So Ukraine should keep it just as long as it keep delivering 10:1 loss ratios for the RA.  After that pull back and find another Bakhmut/Aviidka and let the RA smash itself to pieces.
As to Bradleys and Abrahams - sure keep them coming but they are not what this fight will ride on.  C4ISR, unmanned, infantry and guns - get those right and then if there is room on the plane, load a Bradley.
The RA is not some bottomless behemoth.  It is a mess of a military that is playing chicken with itself.  Eventually it will lose.

In other words... CM Space Lobsters is coming in 2024 everybody! We've all waited over 20 years for it and its finally coming. You can all rest easy now. 😁

Gentlemen, just picked up CMCW and I am, to put it gently, entirely at sea on how to conduct my pixel truppen. Where can I get a good, pithy rundown on the dark arts of tactical warfare in the era of  When Ivan Meets GI Joe.