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The_MonkeyKing

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  1. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IMO most important parts:
    "This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types. Russian missile production has similarly increased. At the beginning of 2023, for instance, Russian production of Iskandr 9M723 ballistic missiles was six per month, with available missile stocks of 50 munitions."
    "Of the tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, for example, approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernised from Russian war stocks. The number of systems held in storage means that while Russia can maintain a consistent output through 2024, it will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks."
    "Perhaps the most serious limitation for Russia, however, is ammunition manufacture. In order to achieve its aspiration to make significant territorial gains in 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has assessed an industrial requirement to manufacture or source approximately 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024. Russian industry has reported to the MoD that it expects to increase 152mm production from around 1 million rounds in 2023 to 1.3 million rounds over the course of 2024, and to only produce 800,000 122mm rounds over the same period. Moreover, the Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years,"
    "This means that to properly resource the armed forces, Russia must – in the short term – further draw down its remaining 3 million rounds of stored ammunition, though much of this is in poor condition. To further compensate for shortages, Russia has signed supply and production contracts with Belarus, Iran, North Korea and Syria, with the latter only able to provide forged shell casings rather than complete shells. Although the injection of around 2 million 122mm rounds from North Korea will help Russia in 2024, it will not compensate for a significant shortfall in available 152mm"
    "The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time."
  2. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Jiggathebauce in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They just got done swatting down a border bill that had everything they were asking for, because Trump needs that issue to run on to scare older white folks who live nowhere near a good Mexican restaurant. He has no other issue to really campaign for. 
    The US mis leadership class, if willing to just allow a two bit conman to become dictator, proves that this system and those that defend it deserve every heap of scorn that radicals put on them.  
    I'm not going to accept American Putinism, even if they win the election. I will not comply and I hope most of the civil service and military defies him and his thugs, openly and directly.
     
     
  3. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That may all very well be true, but I'd rather count on our own strength than on the weaknesses of our enemy. The Russians are no fools and so far more resourceful than the West expected. 
    In that respect I agree with orange boy, rearming is key for NATO. Whatever the costs. The time of free riding is over. Let's hope we're not too late.
  4. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from OBJ in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    IMO most important parts:
    "This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types. Russian missile production has similarly increased. At the beginning of 2023, for instance, Russian production of Iskandr 9M723 ballistic missiles was six per month, with available missile stocks of 50 munitions."
    "Of the tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, for example, approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernised from Russian war stocks. The number of systems held in storage means that while Russia can maintain a consistent output through 2024, it will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks."
    "Perhaps the most serious limitation for Russia, however, is ammunition manufacture. In order to achieve its aspiration to make significant territorial gains in 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has assessed an industrial requirement to manufacture or source approximately 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024. Russian industry has reported to the MoD that it expects to increase 152mm production from around 1 million rounds in 2023 to 1.3 million rounds over the course of 2024, and to only produce 800,000 122mm rounds over the same period. Moreover, the Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years,"
    "This means that to properly resource the armed forces, Russia must – in the short term – further draw down its remaining 3 million rounds of stored ammunition, though much of this is in poor condition. To further compensate for shortages, Russia has signed supply and production contracts with Belarus, Iran, North Korea and Syria, with the latter only able to provide forged shell casings rather than complete shells. Although the injection of around 2 million 122mm rounds from North Korea will help Russia in 2024, it will not compensate for a significant shortfall in available 152mm"
    "The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time."
  5. Upvote
  6. Thanks
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry to interrupt the lively discussion about US politics, but I'd want to add my two cents regarding the Avdiivka situation.
    Most likely, it will attempt to halt or slow down the current RU attack on the O0542 route. It is the most dangerous RU attack, with the potential to collapse the entire Avdiivka pocket rapidly. If 3rd manages to stop or slow this RU attack down, we could argue that 3rd indeed saved Avdiivka from quick collaps.
     
    Most likely, Avdiivka is going to fall because the Russian gliding bombs (UMPK) have not been neutralized yet. Essentially, RU are simply leveling with UMPK UKR strong points that their meat groups encounter. The system works as follows: an RU meat group meets a UKR strong position, dies while the RU command watches it through drones and then RU command orders a bombing of the strong point into oblivion. A fresh RU meat group is then dispatched forward. So, given enough time and bodies, RU will capture the place that once was called Avdiivka. 
     
    The situation is advantageous to UKR in Avdiivka. Avdiivka is the most fortified area in UKR. Even with UMPKs, the Koksohim plant and south urban areas are incredibly tough to breach, and RU losses are horrific.
    The problem is there is a certain critical vulnerability that RU have found and are trying to exploit now. If they succeed, Avdiivka will fall swiftly. Much faster than it would be otherwise.
    Let's discuss the overall situation and then look at my quick map.
    RU failed to encircle Avdiivka via Stepove > Orlivka (north axis) and Vodyane > Tonenke (south axis). The assault via Tsarska Ohota (48.11372615890259, 37.77596770282691) toward the major urban area (that pipe infiltration) was originally successful but is now slow and painful. Finally, since the Azov Steel battle, RU want to avoid any major assaults on large plants such as Koksohim.
    So, using their standard tactic of persistent pressure by meat groups along the front lines, they discovered the weak spot.

    The O0542 road is the primary communication route for the Avdiivka defense sector. Assaulting via Avtobaza and Brevno is the shortest way to reach it. There are not many urban-style buildings in this village-style area. As a result, it provides sufficient concealment for assaulting RU meat groups while providing substantially less cover for UKR defenders against UMPKs.
    If UKR manage to neutralize this assault they could hold Avdiivka a lot longer. So, I believe this is the reason UKR commit 3rd assault "to save Avdiivka".
  7. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    3rd assault going to "save" Adviivka? To me this is smelling like the unfortunate end of Bakhmut all over again.
    In Finnish military thinking defense is supposed to be flexible and bend, like we saw at the start of the Ukrainian war. No point in "no step back" orders, when the situation is not advantageous in the current positions anymore. Then the ground is returned with a counterattack after the attacker has culminated.

  8. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    3rd assault going to "save" Adviivka? To me this is smelling like the unfortunate end of Bakhmut all over again.
    In Finnish military thinking defense is supposed to be flexible and bend, like we saw at the start of the Ukrainian war. No point in "no step back" orders, when the situation is not advantageous in the current positions anymore. Then the ground is returned with a counterattack after the attacker has culminated.

  9. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    3rd assault going to "save" Adviivka? To me this is smelling like the unfortunate end of Bakhmut all over again.
    In Finnish military thinking defense is supposed to be flexible and bend, like we saw at the start of the Ukrainian war. No point in "no step back" orders, when the situation is not advantageous in the current positions anymore. Then the ground is returned with a counterattack after the attacker has culminated.

  10. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    3rd assault going to "save" Adviivka? To me this is smelling like the unfortunate end of Bakhmut all over again.
    In Finnish military thinking defense is supposed to be flexible and bend, like we saw at the start of the Ukrainian war. No point in "no step back" orders, when the situation is not advantageous in the current positions anymore. Then the ground is returned with a counterattack after the attacker has culminated.

  11. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/10/syrskyi-in-zaluzhnyi-out-what-to-expect-from-ukraines-army-reshuffle/
     
     
  12. Thanks
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/10/syrskyi-in-zaluzhnyi-out-what-to-expect-from-ukraines-army-reshuffle/
     
     
  13. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/10/syrskyi-in-zaluzhnyi-out-what-to-expect-from-ukraines-army-reshuffle/
     
     
  14. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    110th. russian assault being destroyed.
    Some new footage, I think? Definetaly less cuts than whatever ends up on twitter I think. There will be another part showing all the casulties
  15. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You know we North Americans are often told that "we don't get Russia", or most of Europe for that matter.  What is clear from this fiasco is that cluelessness cuts both ways.  So the best PR guys Putin had all settled on the idea that the best way to shift US public sentiment was a detailed history lesson on Eastern (fine, Central) Europe?  Oh ya, all of our modern culture speaks to our deep reverence for European history minutia, claims and counter claims.
    Here is what the US (and Canada to a large extent) really think. 
    "We won and some Europeans tagged along - Tom Hanks really won WW2.  We have English/French/Some 'Old Country' grandparents, so there is that.  The world is - 'Us, Them and The Rest.'  We really do not care about King Uteslav or whatever, unless someone makes a cool movie about it.  Why are White people killing each other in Ukraine?  We are used to Brown people killing each other, or us killing brown people...but this is weird.  We are spending how much on all this?!  Have you seen how much bananas cost these days?!  It is sad when kids die...now I feel bad.  They are still shooting each other...now I am getting bored.  Oh dear election time again and my XYZ is now the most important thing in the entire history of our species - if that guy is for/against it, he is worse than Hitler (who we all know was really bad...see Tom Hanks)."
    I am not sure what Putin's best play here was, but it sure as hell wasn't what happened.  As to Carlson...welcome to your legacy...
     
  16. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is a very good analogy.  McClellan was a brilliant force generation general.  He built a modern army out of a tiny start up.  That was an enormous task with many critical systems essentially beginning from nothing - logistics, C4ISR, training and doctrine.  He was in fact exactly what the Union needed at the beginning of the war.  But when it came time to fight, he was sub par and dangerous.  The political level had to replace him and find the right general for the right time: Grant.
    Grant would have been a disaster in the first half of the war.  He would have fought like Lee and likely broken the north.  Lee was arguably the wrong general for the South too.  Aggressive to a fault. Slavish adherence to the offensive.  He took an incredibly motivated military and basically broke it without achieving victory.  Now a strong argument can be made that he knew he was up against the clock and was essentially trying to destroy the Union before they inevitably grew too strong but there are holes in this.  However, the Confederacy never solved for stuff like logistics or C4ISR over the same period - that is a major strategic shortfall.
    Regardless, generals are very often terrible in a moment other than their own.  Most of the wartime generals of WW2 would have been horrible in small dirty wars.  Good generals in low intensity or peacetime often fail in wartime.  The trick is to put the right general in the chair at the right time. I do not know what the dynamic is with the UA but clearly the politically level has decided they need someone else for what comes next…we will have to see if they are right.
  17. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is official, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi dismissed from his current duties
     
  18. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email
    "For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
    "As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. "
    "The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option."
    "The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being."
    "Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing."
    "The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches."
    "Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention."
     
  19. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sufficient unto the day, tomorrow they have to wake up and push the next step. I didn't think Schumer and McConnell could get this vote done, but now that they have I think the odds of getting out of the Senate are pretty good. The House....not sure they could name a post office at the moment, but it would literally only take three Republicans growing a spine to get this done.
    He explains further in a video.
  20. Upvote
  21. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.
    Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.
  22. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I see this as Ukraine restructuring and adopting. That is clearly needed in the light of the last years events.
    Change is best done by changing the people on the top. In commercial sector and militaries. In addition in democracy the elected officials cannot be changed outside elections.
  23. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is official, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi dismissed from his current duties
     
  24. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from A Canadian Cat - was IanL in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/on-the-brink-examining-ammo-shortages?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1565454&post_id=141397066&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=22ez99&utm_medium=email
    "For several months, our team avoided discussing publicly internal issues to prevent potential Russian exploitation for propaganda. However, as these problems become increasingly visible and publicly acknowledged, we've chosen to openly discuss them."
    "As Russian forces persist in pressuring Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka, it is becoming evident that the fall of Avdiivka is not a matter of if, but when. "
    "The suggested plan for Ukraine in 2024 is to dig in and construct fortifications to minimize territorial and human losses. Unfortunately, this appears to be the only viable, albeit "forced," plan for Ukraine in 2024 unless substantial foreign aid is received and radical mobilization measures are implemented. While this plan is logical, it is not an ideal option."
    "The problem of adequately staffing military units has existed for a long period. Most individuals have been engaged in combat for nearly two years, undergoing rare and non-systematic, short rotations that are insufficient for a full restoration of their physical and, more importantly, mental well-being."
    "Although Ukraine urgently needs mobilization efforts to not only replace hundreds of thousands of individuals engaged in combat but also to establish new offensive capabilities, multiple problems are undermining these efforts that many media outlets and analysts prefer to avoid discussing."
    "The reputation of certain Ukrainian generals has plummeted to the point where they are now likened to Russian counterparts known for deploying careless frontal assaults. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of accountability for such failures or misguided approaches."
    "Our team has been informed about escalating tension between the Presidential office and the Commander-in-Chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, for over a year, although it has only recently come to public attention."
     
  25. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    With the US aid deadlock continuing European countries must start funding US arms for Ukraine.
    It is surprising to me this is not already happening. European countries are moaning about insuffient production capasity and empty stockpiles... How about purchasing the weapons from where there are plenty (USA, Asia...)?
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