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The_MonkeyKing

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    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, but also record deliveries of equipment. 
    https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024
    "This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types."
    Generally expected to match the loss rates this year.
  2. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah! Here is the vid
    lataus.mp4
  3. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, I agree.
    Even with refurbishments the quality problem is not yet materializing on lets say "to a critical" extent. T-80BV and T-72 2000's models keep coming. By many estimates (including "perun"), the cases of T-55 and T-62 have been because of totally different production, warehouse and ammo "pipelines" for these being fast and available. 
    We shall see when Russia starts choking here. Next year by most estimates. 
    https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1



     
  4. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And that is why I was very careful not to use world "new". 
    In past posts I have quoted that article extensively. 
    For the end result now and this year, doesn't matter whether the equipment is "refurbished". Then when we zoom out to strategic level and long term planning it does matter because the stockpiles are going to run dry in the coming years.
  5. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah, I agree.
    Even with refurbishments the quality problem is not yet materializing on lets say "to a critical" extent. T-80BV and T-72 2000's models keep coming. By many estimates (including "perun"), the cases of T-55 and T-62 have been because of totally different production, warehouse and ammo "pipelines" for these being fast and available. 
    We shall see when Russia starts choking here. Next year by most estimates. 
    https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1



     
  6. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah! Here is the vid
    lataus.mp4
  7. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What I really want to know is the quality of those T72s and T80s.  Pushing a newer model out the door does not mean its internals are functioning as designed.  I am assuming western intelligence is chasing after this stuff and the real answer is likely classified for now.  But these are the types of indicators one watches out for - stuff like older sights, cheaper electronics and other corner cutting.
    We wrestle a lot with the actual state of the Russian military and that is hard only being able to see from this altitude.
  8. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I seem to remember from peruns last video he focussed more on artillery. Russian artillery quality is degrading from mostly SPG to older towed guns and they are beginning to run low on barrels. There are still loads of towed guns in store but many of them are very old indeed and can't take modern ammunition or are limited to 12km max range (dangerously close to the front line for a relatively immobile system and very vulnerable to drones). 
  9. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah! Here is the vid
    lataus.mp4
  10. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah! Here is the vid
    lataus.mp4
  11. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yeah! Here is the vid
    lataus.mp4
  12. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Thomm in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Big Bada Bum
  13. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763116800537997387.html
    "So Russia recently released footage of the targeting of Ukrainian Cars across the border aswell as Lancet, Sahed and Tornado-S footage. I have cut it to take out the gore footage and only show the Lancet and other hits.
    Here is the thread 
    So lets start:
    AS-90(known)
    2S1 Gvozdika Damaged
    Training Ground Hit
    T-64BV Damaged
    Group of T-72 Barely Damaged
    AN/TPQ-50 Destroyed
    BREM-1 ARV Destroyed
    BMP-1 Damaged
    T-64 Destroyed
    T-64 Damaged

    Bradley? Destroyed
    Unknown Vehicle Destroyed
    Leopard 2A6? Hit
    Buk-M1/M2 Destroyed
    BTR-80? Damaged?
    Unknown SAM Destroyed(claimed patriot)
    BMP-1 Damaged
    BM-27 Uragan/Bureviy Destroyed
    Msta-B Howitzer Damaged
    Leopard 2A5(known) Destroyed

    Destruction of a Ukrainian RM-70 Vampire MLRS

    Sahed and Iskander-M strikes on Infrastructure and Targets."
  14. Upvote
  15. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1761453249180168647.html
    Ukraine faces a difficult period as Russia regains military momentum and Ukraine grapples with internal challenges.
    Key Points:
    Ukrainian Manpower Shortage: Political and military misalignments have delayed vital mobilization efforts. New troops likely won't be sufficiently trained and ready until late summer. Springtime Vulnerability: Russia is exploiting Ukraine's weakened state with multi-front offensives. Although Russian gains have been modest, they are prepared for high casualties and have more forces in reserve. External Aid Factors: Ukraine is reliant on external support, which has its own limitations and could be affected by future political events, such as the US elections. Worst-Case Scenario Focus: Urges a focus on worst-case scenarios for aid planning. He calls for a sense of urgency similar to that seen in early 2022.
  16. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think we just found out the reason why according to leaks US is thinking about supplying longer range ATACMS. Iran did it first...
  17. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Seth G. Jones, Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program at CSIS, will be joined by Eliot A. Cohen, Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS; Emily Harding, Director of the Intelligence, National Security, and Technology Program and Deputy Director of the International Security Program at CSIS; and the Honorable Michael Vickers, former Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and CIA operations officer. 
  18. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think we just found out the reason why according to leaks US is thinking about supplying longer range ATACMS. Iran did it first...
  19. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
    The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
    ▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
    ▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
    ▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
    ▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
    ▪ artillery ammunition;
    ▪ hand grenades;
    ▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
    ▪ medical equipment;
    ▪ ambulances.
    In addition, 
    ▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
    ▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.
  20. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
    The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
    ▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
    ▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
    ▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
    ▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
    ▪ artillery ammunition;
    ▪ hand grenades;
    ▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
    ▪ medical equipment;
    ▪ ambulances.
    In addition, 
    ▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
    ▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.
  21. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
    The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
    ▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
    ▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
    ▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
    ▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
    ▪ artillery ammunition;
    ▪ hand grenades;
    ▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
    ▪ medical equipment;
    ▪ ambulances.
    In addition, 
    ▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
    ▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.
  22. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/0QPb2M/sverige-skickar-stridsbat-90-till-ukraina
    The new Swedish military aid package includes ($700 million )
    ▪ 10 Stridsbåt 90-class amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ 20 amphibious assault boats;
    ▪ underwater weapons (mines and torpedoes);
    ▪ a number of anti-aircraft systems such as Robot 70;
    ▪ anti-tank robots of the TOW model;
    ▪ grenade launchers with ammunition;
    ▪ artillery ammunition;
    ▪ hand grenades;
    ▪ Carl Gustaf grenade launchers;
    ▪ medical equipment;
    ▪ ambulances.
    In addition, 
    ▪ $100M be spent on the purchase of military equipment through the funds, 
    ▪ $100M will be spent on new Stridsfordon 90 combat vehicles for Ukraine.
  23. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    5 "claimed"
    But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.
  24. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    5 "claimed"
    But yeah, someting is up. Ukraine surging air defence after Russia has started surgeing its air power.
  25. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They claim 6 total. But if the Russians shot one of their own Su-35s, that would be 5 by Ukraine.
     
    However, Russian telegrammers are debating whether they might have shot down more of their own.
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