Jump to content

The_MonkeyKing

Members
  • Posts

    1,752
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Everything posted by The_MonkeyKing

  1. There was F-16 pilot funding passed 6 months ago. The government chose newer to use it (maybe changed in the last month?) I am sure this will go the same way again. I am also calling for more funding and not just a qualitative increase.
  2. So this is Moscow stating it is ok for Ukrainian planes to operate out of NATO airfields? Even Moscow is trying to get the West to realize it has absolute escalation dominance
  3. I see Ukrainian harassment operations likely here. Hard to see any main attack happening over the "river"
  4. On this episode of the Russia Contingency, Mike is joined by Rob Lee, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute's Eurasia program, and Franz Stefan-Gady, founder and chief executive officer of Gady Consulting. https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/28970/ukraines-offensive-first-impressions/ my summary notes: Careful optimism but lots of unknowns Ukrainians seem to be managing well with green formations in an environment where even Western professionals would likely struggle progress within the realm of expectations nobody in the analyst community was expecting this to look like Harkiv The question is not "have the Ukrainians reached a certain point" but where they were planning to be at this point in time Mike guesses it is unlikely Ukrainians are where they hoped to be at this point but also that actually doesn't tell us much. how are the relative attrition and commitment of forces? How much Ukraine has ammo available and for how long time? Ukraine could choose to reinforce one of the current attacks or open a new one western axis is having difficulties but the eastern axis is advancing well and on a wide front the main effort is still to show itself. "we know it when we see it" Ukraine seems to be trying to get Russia to commit reserves This is still unclear We are in the attritional phase of this operation Transition to maneuver phase is often sudden Ukraine approaching the Russian mainline expectedly everything takes time when advancing on fortified positions. Russia likely aiming to make this approach attritional as possible but not to stop Ukrainians Russia likely trying to make the attack culminate at the mainline or shortly after it Early Russian hard counterattacks are surprisingly hard (and unsuccessful) Experienced Ukrainian units are making gains at this moment. New formations are still mostly not committed Ukraine is also mixing the new formations with its more experienced forces Ukrainian Positive indicators Ukraine seems to be capable of hitting the depth of the Russian rear effectively can they isolate the battlefield? Ukraine seems to be winning the counter-battery war Ukraine seems to be learning and adapting already Night fighting capacity paying off Ukrainian Challenges Some Russian units fight stubbornly even when these same formations have disintegrated in the past 42nd mot.rifle div. and the two Spetsnaz brigades seem to have held on the western axis Doing combined arms breaches without air superiority and NATO level of enablers and without total fires dominance. Russian rotatory aviation Mines A possible shortage of short-range air defense on the Ukraine side although rotatory aviation operations would be expected in any case
  5. From what I have heard of the NCO discussion, Ukraine is and was pretty far from anything like the US system. And that is what many commentators in the States referred to as being one of the reasons for success. They have/had similar effects as the Western NCO system but the system was fundamentally different. Only stating the Ukrainian military as it was in 2021 doesn't exist anymore. No matter what you thought it was back then it is not anymore. Losses, learning, reserve officers, expanding the force, new western training, adaptation in this war, new offensive tasks, and capacities...
  6. Those could have been some daring scouts with fire under their buts
  7. I believe it when I see the evidence of a direct hit. That image doesn't have that
  8. I toke notice of that too. I would like to think this is because the US is doing a lot more than we think.
  9. The Tokmak axis is expanding according to the Ukrainians: Now the infamous Bradley pile is on the Ukrainian side of the line. We have not seen Russians releasing photos where they destroy the abandoned equipment (only a couple singles). I presume most of the equipment is now on the Ukrainian side of the line and being recovered.
  10. Yeah, Ukraine definitely has and has had a structure similar to "NCO" which provides leadership, initiative, and experience outside the officer core. Kofman has talked about it in detail often, it is just that it is nothing like the NATO and US "NCO system" even though it fills a similar need/role.
  11. Some pointers from Millie: combined 60 000 Ukrainians trained in the west so far 6 000 Ukrainians in training in the West at this moment The USA has trained a combined 60 000 Ukrainians in maneuver combined arms operations This includes 12 maneuver combined arms "Battalion tactical groups" including their entire staff at this moment three battalions are in training by the USA
  12. https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/ukraines-multiple-axes-of-attack/ UKRAINE’S MULTIPLE AXES OF ATTACK NICK DANFORTH AND MICHAEL KOFMANJUNE 14, 2023 PODCASTS - PODCASTS - WAR ON THE ROCKS my summary: very incomplete and delayed image with competing claims. the offensive has been going on for a week two main axes of advance, Tokmak and Velyka Novosilka another shoe might very well drop as a new axis Luhansk is likely to see some action Separate axis in Bakmut, incremental gains secondary priority grinding fight So far operation is closer to Kherson than Harkiv. Still doesn't mean it won't transform into something else. Ukraine has not committed its main forces and has not reached the main defensive lines Defensives are clearly a significant factor and mechanized mobile warfare against them has proven challenging in this war Success/failure too early to tell Traditionally starting days are decisive but this is not always the case. Seems not in this case here The key question is where Ukrainians are now in relation to where they were planning to be at this point and how is are force commitments going on both sides. It is clear that the rosiest predictions of this operation were incorrect. These people might believe they are helping by inflating expectations but they are not At this point, it is clear that the main advantage of Western equipment is survivability and night operation capacity. No wunderwaffe In the big picture, Mike thinks the technical tactical level capabilities are just one piece of a big puzzle. Names this is his biased opinion. It comes down to force employment We have only seen only a couple of the new brigades in operations in limited scope so the capacity of the new formations is still largely unknown. Ukraine seems to have enough ammo and probably has an advantage in artillery in the south. No longer "she'll hunger" of the beginning of the year. Ukraine military Ukraine's military has one foot in the Soviet past and one foot in "NATO". Wide variety between units in culture, skill, and experience The prewar military was nothing like many in the West described it as NATO trained ext. No widespread Western training, no NCO core... The prewar UKR military does not exist anymore Mobilization and coming of old Soviet reserve officers It is remarkable how much Ukraine's military has done given its challenges What happens after a Ukrainian breakthrough? logistics? Enablers? sustaining momentum? how much of the Ukrainian force is left at the moment of breakthrough? How will Russia be able to react? Russian ability to recover? challenges Ukraine has Limited amounts of engineering equipment. Breaching equipment is also often lost at first Ukraine has a challenge with a lack of short-range AA with the formations minefields challenges with enablers challenges with force employment units are green Ukraine is attaching more experienced units to these green units Russia has significant force density and reserves in the south not easy the do offensive operations when you have always been a defensive force
  13. couple days old satellite as well: Starting to look pretty damn radical
  14. Availability, and 25mm&105mm definitely needs all the help possible to penetrate.
  15. I think any moral or ethical arguments against sending equipment the West has and is planning to use itself are ridiculous
  16. Prominent Russian Telegram channels and military correspondents had a meeting with Putin. This indicates that he seeks alternative sources of information on the war, apart from his intelligence and military commanders. Some of these correspondents have been openly critical of Russian generals.
  17. Not surprising. Where on earth could they find enough 25mm, 105mm, and 120mm ext. for the hundreds and hundreds of IFVs and MBTs other than the stockpiles of Depleted Uranium shell in the US and elsewhere. Also, the 105mm guns are going to seriously need these shells in terms of penetration.
  18. For sure the Russians cannot capture and evac them but destroy them for sure.
  19. I think we are way too far away to make judgments on this battle. Sometimes in war, battalions just get waked even when no nobody makes a mistake.
  20. More info on the battle and how the footage ties into it. Russians managed to milk a lot of information war material out of this <battalion sized action. source: https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros?s=20
  21. indeed a great thing about Strykers and Bradleys is there's plenty more where these came from! Also, the crew survivability makes sure new personal don't need to be trained and experience can accumulate.
  22. Bradleys is probably the best western IFV to lose. The USA will be able to replace them quickly and in large volumes. Also great crew survivability.
  23. "I reconstructed and geolocated the route and losses of one of the two columns of the 47th mechanized brigade. Of course, I also used the work of other OSINT people, but many of the given locations were inaccurate and the place of the destruction of M2 and L2A6 was wrong. Freeze frames from movies added to the orientation of what was where. This column had a difficult fate: it was surrounded by drone-corrected artillery 3x, it defeated 2 groups of mines, and finally, while overcoming the second one, it fell under the fire of Ka-52's Wihr ATGMs and ATGMs as well as artillery. Really KUDOS to the soldiers of this battalion because they went through hell that day. P.S. location and slides from the second (west) column will be uploaded later. This is the one whose end was supposedly photoshopped." Going 7 kilometers under drone-corrected artillery through two minefields and then getting waked by Ka-52s source: https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1668251143552606214
×
×
  • Create New...